When we checked the center field position and created tiered rankings, there were a few players that were suggested as possible values at the position.

Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin could provide some nice speed – at the cost of risking your batting average. Since the rankings were for rotisserie baseball, that risk pushed those players off of the rankings.

But what if we were talking about head-to-head baseball, where punting a category is a strategy many deep leaguers employ? In such a format, you are competing in ten categories every week and can easily ‘punt’ a category if it provides an advantage elsewhere. Imagine the value you could get out of eschewing batting average – your lineup could employ Jimmy Rollins, Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, and Jayson Werth, all without the problems that lineup would normally entail.

With that strategy in mind, is Chris Young a viable option in 2010? If Bill James is to be believed, Youngs’ power and speed could return and answer that question affirmatively. The fans have yet to chime in (but should take this chance to give their input).

After famously being demoted to the minor leagues last year, Young returned to a post-All-Star-break line that could help batting-average-punters (.236/.343/.444) – at least in the power department. He didn’t steal a base. We can be forgiven for feeling confused.

Looking at his plate discipline stats may just muddy the waters. Every statistic is going in a different direction. His strikeout rate has gotten steadily worse (24.8% in 2007 to 30.7% last year), but he’s reaching less often (22.9% in 2007 to 18.0% last year). Perhaps it’s all about his contact rate, which is definitely getting worse (79.7% in 2006 to 73.9% last year), but there are plenty of players that succeed with a 75-ish% contact rate (Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez most prominently), and with his still-strong walk rate (9.1% career, 12% in 2009), he has his good qualities.

There’s also something interesting going on with Young’s take rate. As RJ pointed out, Young takes a lot of pitches in the zone, and a good portion of those pitches could have been called balls last year. But again, Victor Martinez and Chris Coghlan both also took about 40% of the pitches they saw in the zone, and they had pretty good years last year.

It may just be that a player that both takes a lot of pitches in the zone and doesn’t make contact is going to have a hard time in major league baseball. Let’s set the bar at Young’s career levels of swinging in the zone (around 60%) and contact rate (around 76%). How many other players in the last two years have had good seasons with those rates?

Last year, the list was short: Mike Cameron, Jason Bay and Brandon Inge all had passable years sporting percentages close to Young’s numbers (but none took as many pitches in the zone, with Cameron swinging the least at 63.7%). In 2008, it was Jason Bay and Mike Cameron again (but Bay made contact on 77.1% of his pitches, and Cameron swung at more pitches than Young.)

It looks like we have a (rather obvious) comp in Mike Cameron then. Except that if you compare Cameron’s career numbers in the two categories (63.9% Z-swing%, 75.4% contact rate), you’ll notice he doesn’t take as many pitches in the zone. He also plays solid center field defense (+5.7 UZR/150 in CF, career).

And you have your two things to work on for Chris Young the Outfielder. In order to be Mike Cameron, he needs to swing at more pitches in the zone and play better defense. Then he’ll always have a place on the field. The good news is that Young swung at more pitches in the zone last year than he did the previous two years. The bad news is that his defense needs to take a serious step forward this year (-4.9 UZR/150 in CF, career). The good news means that he may be ownable in the right league next year. The bad news means that he won’t be ownable in any keeper leagues going forward if the defense doesn’t improve.

The Oakland Athletics recently added to the club’s jumble of outfielders, signing free agent Coco Crisp to a one-year, $4.75 million deal. Covelli’s contract has a $5.75M club option for 2011, with a $500K buyout.

The 30 year-old switch-hitter is coming off of a 2009 season that was curtailed by injuries to both shoulders. Crisp logged just 215 plate appearances, playing his last game on June 12th. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, then had a procedure to clean up some damage in his left shoulder a short time later.

Much of Coco’s value is tied up in his legs. He’s a wonderful defender, having posted a career +5.8 UZR/150 in center field and a +23.5 UZR/150 in left field. So, he figures to be a favorite among Oakland’s pitching staff. But what about his offensive game?

It’s wise not to put a lot of stock in 200-some PA, but Crisp had an odd-ball year at the plate in 2009. His .228/.336/.378 line looks weak, but he suffered from a lousy .247 BABIP (his career average is .309). Coco posted a .150 ISO (.130 career average), while drawing a walk in a career-high 13.9 percent of his plate appearances (7.7 career average).

Crisp has some interesting plate discipline trends going on. His walk rate has climbed every year since 2004. The increases from ’04 to ’06 were negligible (from 6.8 percent to 7 percent). But he walked 8.7% in 2007 and 8.8% in 2008, and took plenty of pitches with an otherwise hack-happy Royals team in ’09.

Despite those previously low walk totals, Crisp has never really been a free swinger. His career outside swing percentage is 18.8, well below the 25 percent major league average. Instead, the one-time Cardinals prospect is seeing a lesser percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone:

Crisp’s In-Zone Percentage, 2002-2009 (MLB average that season in parentheses)

2002: 56.2 (54.6), +3% above the MLB average
2003: 56.1 (51.4), +9%
2004: 57.8 (55.1), +5%
2005: 56.1 (53.8), +4%
2006: 54.8 (52.6), +4%
2007: 51.9 (50.3), +3%
2008: 52.2 (51.1), +2%
2009: 50.9 (49.3), +3%

He’s still getting more pitches within the zone than most, but the relative difference compared to the big league average has lessened. Perhaps because of his bum shoulders, Crisp didn’t swing at much of anything in 2009. His 41.4 Swing% was his lowest mark since 2002. The average swing rate in 2009 was 45.2 percent.

Overall, Crisp has been a slightly below league-average batter during the course of his career, with a wRC+ of 97 (his offense, once adjusted for park and league, is about three percent below average).

He continued to display good wheels in ’09, swiping 13 bags in 15 attempts. Crisp notched at least 20 steals in each season from 2006 to 2008, and has nabbed bases at an 81.4% clip since ’06. Some guys swipe 20+ bags while actually harming their teams (Troy Tulowitzki is a huge asset, but Colorado might want to Super Glue his spikes to first base).

Not Crisp, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, Coco rated as +1.26 runs above average in limited action in 2009. He was -0.07 in 2008, +2.15 in 2007 and +1.34 in 2006.

Early word is that Crisp will man center field, flanked by Rajai Davis in left field and Ryan Sweeney in right field.

Davis (+11.3 UZR/150 in the OF) and Sweeney (+17.1) also possess gazelle-like range, meaning few balls should drop in the Coliseum’s outfield pasture.

However, the purported arrangement would leave Scott Hairston, an average hitter (100 wRC+) and not too shabby a fly catcher himself (+6.3 UZR/150 in the OF), without a defined role. That’s to say nothing of Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck and the recently acquired Michael Taylor. Tough luck, Eric Patterson.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Oakland’s outfield options:

Crisp: .256/.333/.373, .313 wOBA, 19 SB/5 CS
Davis: .267/.326/.372, .309 wOBA, 31 SB/11 CS
Sweeney: .280/.344/.396, .327 wOBA, 6 SB/5 CS
Hairston: .251/.307/.436, .319 wOBA, 4 SB/2 CS
Cunningham: .255/.318/.401, .314 wOBA, 10 SB/6 CS
Buck: .256/.331/.403, .322 wOBA, 4 SB/2CS
Patterson: .260/.324/.400, .317 wOBA, 24 SB/7 CS
Taylor: .264/.317/.427, .322 wOBA, 9 SB/6 CS

With plus defense and an OK bat, Crisp projects to be around a two-win player in 2010 (the fans currently peg him at +2.1 WAR). For $5.25 million in guaranteed cash, that’s a good deal in a vacuum. But the question most people have is, what does Coco add that Sweeney and Davis already don’t? Perhaps a trade is in the offing. Or, maybe the A’s just don’t want to count on Hairston or Buck’s health and want Cunningham and Taylor to log more time in the minors.

Whatever the reason, Crisp looks to be set as a starter. His speed makes him a late-round consideration in mixed leagues. Though Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are groundball-oriented starters, Oakland’s batch of young arms looks a bit more appealing with three center field-worthy defenders patrolling the outfield.

Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:

Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.

You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.

As far as Johnson goes, I’d be more afraid of an injury than a trade. Johnson will likely pitch this season for Florida and be dealt before the 2011 campaign. While this isn’t the best scenario for a keeper, his numbers from last year make it hard to pass up another season of his production. In over 200 innings in 2009, Johnson posted a 8.22 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB, earning himself 15 wins and a 3.23 ERA (3.40 xFIP). He understands how to get ground balls, with a 50.3% rate last year and a career rate of 47.8%. He has a good fastball to go along with a slider and changeup. Johnson had elbow problems in early 2007, and had Tommy John surgery later in the season. If he can stay healthy, he looks to be on pace for another stellar season in 2010.

Sandoval is a solid hitter, but looks to have reached his power peak last season. He isn’t likely to do much better than his .330/.387/.556 line and 25 homers he hit last year. But, don’t expect a decline either. Because he should no longer have his catcher eligibility, his value goes down.

All three have their issues as keepers, but due to your abundance of hitters I would recommend keeping Johnson and Kershaw. While both have their problems, your team should be better off. If you can find a way to package Johnson and Sandoval in a deal for a pitcher, that is your best option. You wouldn’t have to worry about Johnson being shipped to the AL or getting hurt, and you would still get to keep two top pitchers to go alongside Lincecum.

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.

With Christmas just a day away, it’s time for some last minute gift shopping. However, not everything that a fantasy baseball owner may want is available for purchase. Here is a list of items that all fantasy owners want, but are outside of their control.

1. A starting job for Scott Podsednik

Steals are always a problem in fantasy baseball. But if Scott Podsednik can find a starting job this offseason, there may be one more source of steals out on the market. In 587 trips to the plate for the White Sox last year, Podsednik stole 30 bases in 43 attempts, and hit .304 with 75 runs scored. Now that the White Sox have acquired Juan Pierre, Podsednik is out of a gig. Surely someone will have a home for the man who stole 70 bags in 2004, but will that home include a starting gig? One can only dream.

2. Russell Martin to get his act together

In 2007, Martin hit .293 with 19 homers and 21 steals, making him one of the most hyped catchers going into 2008. He took a small step back in ’08, hitting .280 with 13 homers and 18 steals. While it was a down year, he was still well liked going into drafts last year. But, in 2009, he hit .250 with 7 homers and 11 steals, making his fantasy season a forgetful one. To be fair to Martin, his line drive rate has increased in both 2008 and 2009, and his .285 BABIP in ’09 says he should bounce back in 2010. But, the loss of power is concerning, even if he can post a solid average and steal some bases.

3. Adrian Beltre to sign with the Red Sox

With the Mike Lowell deal falling through (for now), this looks like a pipe dream. He never got along with Safeco field, never hitting more than 26 homers in his 5 years in Seattle. If he moves to Fenway, one can only imagine the numbers he would put up. I’d be willing to bet on a 30 HR, .280 year from the third baseman.

What else would you like for Christmas this year that you can’t control?

Travis Snider is one of the best high school bats from the 2006 draft and he’s risen awfully quickly through Toronto’s minor league system. Snider shot through three levels in 2008 and finished that season with the big league club. He wrapped up 2008 with a .301/.338/.466 line in 73 at-bats with the Jays. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

This led to some lofty expectations for the 21-year-old Snider in 2009. He started the season with the big league club and had a rocky 99 at-bats in April and May. Snider hit .242/.292/.394 with three home runs and struck out in 25% of his at-bats over that span. The Jays demoted Snider to the minors so he could hone up on his skills and get his bat on track.

Snider would spend the next three months with the Jays Triple-A Las Vegas affiliate. He would mash to the tune of .337/.431/.663 (27% strikeout rate) with 14 home runs over 175 at-bats. Snider played a nice hitters park and also experienced some renown hitters parks on the road but his home/road splits in Triple-A are negligible. He bashed at home (1.045 OPS) and did even better (1.123 OPS) on the road.

In the middle of August the Blue Jays summoned the hulking 6-foot and 235 pound Snider back up to the big leagues. Snider showed some improvement in the power department and over his final 142 at-bats he hit .239/.351/.437 with six home runs accompanied with a 37% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is very alarming.

The lefthanded swinging Snider has plus power and projects to hit for average down the road but he’s always been prone to the strikeout and has struggled with lefties at the upper levels. After hitting a slender .233/.295/.310 in 116 AA and AAA at-bats versus lefties in 2008 (credit Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook for that fact) Snider improved in 2009 at Las Vegas. There he hit .396/.473/.667 in only 48 at-bats but his big league showing against them (.225/.333/.275) in 40 at-bats points towards much needed improvement albeit the small sample sizes.

2010 will be Snider’s 22-year-old season and he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Snider is going to be a corner stone during the Jays rebuilding project and it’s a given fact that he’s going to strike out a lot but his plus power is extremely tantalizing.

Snider should be allowed to develop at the big league level during the entire 2010 season. His troubles with lefties and alarming strikeout rate which steadily declined when he was recalled in August point towards growing pains in 2010. While he may be good for 20-25 big flies next season I foresee his strikeouts being a big issue and don’t expect him to hit any higher than .260-.270. The whiffs and his below average speed and thick lower half will lower his BABIP from the shockingly high minor league BABIPs he compiled.

Snider’s a big piece of Toronto’s future and I expect good production from him eventually but he’s got a lot of work to do in 2010 at the big league level. Keep him off your draft boards for now and try nabbing him off of the waiver wire during the season and ride out his hot streaks before the strikeouts cool him down.

Mariners acquired OF Johermyn Chavez and RHP Brandon League from the Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Morrow.

Marc Hulet did a fantastic job giving us a breakdown of Chavez, a 20 year-old with a projectable 6-3, 200+ pound frame and power potential. The Venezuelan prospect has plenty to learn about controlling the strike zone, however. Johermyn, meet Greg Halman. Greg, Johermyn.

While Chavez could pay dividends for the Mariners down the line, let’s break down how Morrow and League are affected by this deal.

If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.

The fireballing righty was taken 5th overall out of Cal in the 2006 amateur draft. In its prospect coverage, Baseball America dubbed Morrow “perhaps the best pure arm in the draft.” The lanky 6-3 pitcher sat in the mid-to-high 90’s with his fastball, flashing an occasionally plus slider and a passable changeup. However, BA also said that his secondary stuff “comes and goes,” and that “several scouts still question his feel for the strike zone and for pitching in general.”

So, what did the M’s do with their gifted-but-unpolished bonus baby? Jump him all the way to the majors after 16 innings in the minors, of course!

In 2007, Morrow was pigeonholed into Seattle’s bullpen. Unsurprisingly, he was as raw as uncooked hamburger meat. Instead of working on his breaking and off speed stuff in the minors, building arm strength and stamina, Morrow flung mid-90’s fastballs in the bigs, hoping to miss enough bats to compensate for a total lack of control.

He did whiff a lot of hitters, with 9.38 K/9. But Morrow walked an obscene 7.11 hitters per nine frames. His heater, thrown 80 percent of the time, was decent (+0.53 runs per 100 pitches). But Brandon made little progress with his secondary pitches (-2.37 for the slider, with a splitter/change that was about average).

Morrow spent most of 2008 as a reliever, before going to the minors to get stretched out and returning in September as a starter.

He whiffed 11.5 batters per nine frames in 36.2 relief innings, with improved control (3.68 BB/9). As a starter, Morrow posted rates of 9 K/9 and 6.11 BB/9 in 28 IP. Overall, his fastball (thrown 71 percent) was excellent (+1.59 runs/100). Morrow’s slider was still lackluster (-0.54), and his changeup/split was a little better than average (+0.34).

2009 was more of the same. To start, or not to start, that is the question. Hamle…er, Morrow oscillated between the ‘pen and the rotation yet again. He served as Seattle’s closer before David Aardsma grabbed the role. Brandon also served a DL stint with right biceps tendinitis in late April (he had some shoulder and forearm discomfort earlier in the spring as well). Morrow then made some starts from June to July, before getting optioned to AAA Tacoma.

In 10 starts (55 innings) with the Rainers, the former Golden Bear punched out a modest 6.5 hitters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 and a 3.53 FIP. Morrow had more issues with a forearm strain while on the farm.

He returned to Seattle in September to make four more starts. As a starter in 2009, Morrow K’d 7.5 per nine frames, while still handing out plenty of free passes (5.26 BB/9).

Ironically, his slider (+0.64 runs/100), curveball (+0.5) and changeup (+0.18) rated as above-average pitches in ’09, while his heater suffered (-0.53).

Under team control until 2012, Morrow hopes to start with the Blue Jays. Because of the peculiar decision by Seattle’s last regime to stuff him in the bullpen and Morrow’s subsequent shuffling between roles, he’s now 25 and still green as grass.

Assuming Morrow still has minor league options left, might it be best for Toronto to give him back some of that lost development time by letting him open the 2010 season at AAA? Las Vegas isn’t an ideal locale for a pitcher to polish his skills. But Morrow tossed all of 101 frames in the minors, and has a career walk rate of 5.8 per nine innings in the majors. He’s clearly talented, but he’s also a mess right now. Morrow could also emerge as a closer option with the Jays.

In swapping Morrow for League, Seattle is either A.) fairly convinced that Morrow won’t cut it as a starter, B.) smitten with the young outfielder Chavez or C.) both.

That’s not to say that League is a slouch, though. The 27 year-old righty has a career 3.71 xFIP in the majors, waging a ground assault with a 62 GB%. Toronto’s second-round pick in the 2001 draft turned in his finest campaign in 2009, with 9.16 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 3.16 xFIP in 74.2 innings.

League’s 2009 K rate was well above his career average of 6.85 per nine innings. He changed his approach this past year, however. The 6-2 reliever threw a blistering mid-90’s fastball well over 80 percent of the time from 2006-2008, mixing in some high-80’s sliders and a rare changeup.

In ’09, League lowered his fastball percentage to 65 percent, and basically scrapped the slider. He relied heavily upon his mid-80’s changeup, tossing the pitch nearly 33 percent of the time. While his heater wasn’t as successful as usual (-0.31 runs/100, compared to +0.24 during his career), Brandon’s hard changeup was a plus offering (+2.65 runs/100 in 2009).

The result of the change? A career-high outside-swing percentage (32.9 percent) and a big dip in contact rate (71 percent, compared to a 78.8% career average). The extra whiffs came at the expense of some grounders, though he still kept the ball down (55.7 GB%).

With a low arm slot and his previously fastball-centric approach, League has struggled with lefties. He still gave up his fair share of extra-base hits to southpaws in ’09, but he did at least display better control against opposite-handed hitters.

There has been some speculation that League could try his hand at starting, but he hasn’t started on a regular basis since 2003. In all likelihood, League gives the M’s a strong 7th or 8th inning relief option.

For most 23 year-old starting pitchers, performing at an average level in the major leagues would be cause for celebration and optimism. Of course, Yankees right-hander Joba Chamberlain isn’t your run-of-the-mill arm.

The 6-2, 230 pounder was taken out of Nebraska with a supplemental first-round pick in the 2006 amateur draft. According to Baseball America (subscription required), Joba didn’t even pitch until his senior year of high school. But in a few short years, he went from a husky hurler getting hammered at Division II Nebraska-Kearney to a slimmed-down star leading the Cornhuskers to the College World Series.

BA’s draft scouting report mentioned that a triceps injury caused Chamberlain to fall down the board a bit, but his stuff was top-shelf. He possessed a “devastating slider,” a low-to-mid-90’s fastball that “should chew up wood bats” and a decent curveball and changeup.

Joba’s pitches did indeed munch on bats in the pros, as he barely spent any time in the minors. In 2007, Chamberlain posted rates of 13.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a tiny 2.03 FIP. When hitters weren’t whiffing, they were chopping the ball into the dirt (53.8 GB%).

Earning a big league call-up in August, Chamberlain proceeded to punish hitters out of the bullpen. In 24 frames, he punched out 12.75 batters per nine frames, issuing 2.25 BB/9 with a 2.42 xFIP. Sitting at 97 MPH with his fastball, Joba had a 64.2% contact rate (3rd-lowest among pitchers with 20+ IP) and a massive 35.1 outside swing percentage (25% MLB average).

Since then, there have been endless barstool arguments about Joba’s ultimate role with the Bronx Bombers. In 2008, Chamberlain made 12 starts and 30 relief appearances. He started the year in the ‘pen, transitioned to the rotation in June and then moved back to relief in September following a DL stint for right shoulder tendinitis.

Joba was superb in both roles. To no one’s surprise, he dominated out of the bullpen, with 11.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings. But he was arguably more impressive as a starter, with 10.2 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 IP. Overall, his groundball rate was a healthy 52 percent.

He didn’t go extremely deep into those games, averaging a little less than 5 and 2/3 innings per start. But the answer to the “starter or reliever?” question appeared to be an easy one. Even the best relievers don’t generally produce the same sort of value as an above-average starter. It’s more difficult to find a quality starter than it is to uncover a ‘pen arm.

In 2009, Chamberlain made 32 appearances (31 starts) in 157.1 innings pitched. The results, while far from bad, were disappointing. Joba’s 4.75 ERA was higher than his 4.56 xFIP, as his batting average on balls in play was a hefty .320. Still, we expected more than league-average pitching.

Chamberlain struck out 7.61 hitters per nine frames, while handing out 4.35 walks per nine innings. He served up 1.2 HR/9, and his home run per fly ball rate wasn’t really the culprit (12.4%, slightly above the average for pitchers). Rather, Joba’s groundball rate fell to 42.9 percent. Some of those extra fly balls cleared the fence at New Yankee Stadium (1.39 HR/9 at home, 0.94 HR/9 on the road). He transitioned to the bullpen for the playoffs.

His plate discipline stats were decidedly average. Joba’s 80.2% contact rate was a tiny bit better than the 80.5% MLB average, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (90.6) was well above the 87.8% big league average.

His control came and went, with 47 percent of his pitches located within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average) and a 54.7 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average). Hitters responded to Chamberlain’s lack of fine touch by chasing few pitches off the plate. Chamberlain’s outside swing percentage was 22.8 percent.

As one would expect, Chamberlain’s velocity dipped as he had to combat lineups several times. He sat between 92 and 93 MPH in 2009, with his high-80’s slider becoming a mid-80’s breaker. Chamberlain also mixed in some high-70’s curveballs and the occasional low-80’s changeup.

Remember that fastball that was supposed to “chew up” lumber? Well, Joba’s heat was one of the least effective pitches in the majors in 2009. He threw the fastball nearly 64 percent of the time, but it had a gruesome run value of -1.26 per 100 pitches thrown. On a per pitch basis, only Jeff Suppan and Carl Pavano fared worse with the fastball.

Joba’s cheddar didn’t show much tailing action. The average right-handed fastball moves in toward a right-handed batter about six inches more a pitch thrown without spin. Chamberlain’s only tailed in toward righties a little more than four inches. Joba’s fastball posted just a 3.3 percent whiff rate. The average for a righty four-seam fastball is about 5.8 percent.

What about that low first pitch strike percentage? According to Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, Chamberlain tossed his fastball about 68 percent on the first pitch. He threw a strike with his fastball a meager 52.2 percent of the time in such situations. The average first pitch strike percentage when a righty throws a fastball is about 58 percent.

Chamberlain often ended up at the mercy of his opponents. Hitters worked a three-ball count in 23.4 percent of their plate appearances against Joba, compared to the 20.2 percent average for AL pitchers.

It’s a shame that Chamberlain got behind the hitter so often, as it limited the impact that his breaking pitches could make. His slider (thrown 22 percent of the time) had a run value of +1.29 per 100 pitches, while his curveball (thrown nine percent) was slightly better than average (+0.12). Don’t ask about the changeup (-2.56, though it was tossed just five percent).

With New York’s acquisition of Javier Vazquez, the Yankees have four starting spots set in stone (CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte are obviously locks as well). That leaves one opening for either Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. Both are well-qualified, and both could certainly end up taking some starts. Clubs just don’t get through a season using only their top five starters.

While Chamberlain didn’t set the world on fire in 2009, he just turned 24 in late September. Hopefully, he gets another crack at the rotation. For the sake of argument, let’s say Joba becomes “only” a 4.00 FIP starter at his peak. If he tosses 175 innings, that would make him worth about 2.7 wins above replacement per season. In 2009, the only reliever to top that WAR total was Jonathan Broxton, with +2.9. It’s awfully hard to make a reasonable argument that Chamberlain has more value out of the ‘pen.

Joba left a sour taste in the mouths of the fantasy owners who dropped a high draft pick on him last year. However, don’t get too discouraged. Surely, Chamberlain has his flaws at the moment. He must do a better job of locating his fastball in order to avoid so many hitter’s counts. That, in turn, would allow him to use his plus slider and solid curve more often. But should we really be shocked that a guy who spent half a season in the minors is rough around the edges?

That’s not to say New York made the wrong decision in bringing him up in 2007-Chamberlain was throttling minor league batters. However, Chamberlain might need some development time before he reaches the lofty expectations bestowed upon him. Pitchers don’t always hit the ground running, progressing in a linear fashion. Joba might not be the instant ace some desired, but there’s plenty of time for him to become a high-caliber big league starter.

Santa is not the only one with an overflowing mailbag this time of year. Let’s answer two questions in this version.

Question #1: JMB asks:

Do you see Pablo Sandoval gaining catcher eligibility if the Giants go with Buster Posey behind the plate? I’m in a keeper league where I traded away Sandoval last season, but I’d love to have him back if I can exploit that angle. Posey obviously can’t catch 162 games. Will the Giants go to another backup trying to protect Sandoval’s elbow, or do you see him calling some games? Thanks for your help!

Unfortunately, I think the ship has sailed for Sandoval as a catcher. I think he did decent work behind the plate in his brief time as a catcher in the majors. But Sandoval caught only three games in 2009, with his last game behind the plate coming on May 8.

As you alluded to, in the third week of May, Sandoval suffered an arm injury when he strained his right elbow making a throw from third base during an Interleague game against the Mariners. He missed four games and the injury lingered a little after that, too. Perhaps the Giants had already made their decision to move Sandoval permanently off catcher prior to the injury, but it is noticeable that he did not do it again afterwards.

You did not mention the eligibility requirements for your league but it is very difficult to imagine him playing 20 games behind the plate. Even 10 games at catcher for Sandoval seems unattainable. Perhaps if your league requires only one game during the regular season to become eligible it becomes a possibility but I would not want to even wager on that chance.

Finally, do not expect Posey to open the year in San Francisco. In an article dated December 5, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote, “General manager Brian Sabean said the front office had a ‘raging debate’ over whether Posey would be the No. 1 catcher, adding, ‘We came to the overall conclusion it would be a tall order to ask him to do that. He just hasn’t played a lot.’”

Question #2: KE asks:

I have a keeper deadline on 12/31, and I’m struggling with who to keep for my last position. I’m in a 12 team auction league where the longer you keep a player the more you pay. My budget for next year is $285. The hitting categories are: R, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, net SB, K, BB, Avg. I’m looking for a 1-year deal and trying to decide between:

– Todd Helton ($2)
– Bobby Abreu ($20)
– Miguel Cabrera ($39)

My other keepers are: Pedroia ($19 for 5 years), S. Drew ($4 for 2 years), Choo ($13 for 3 years), Adam Jones ($13 for 3 years), Victorino ($14 for 1 year), Carpenter ($8 for 1 year) and Tommy Hanson ($8 for 3 years). We start 2C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, 1B/3B, 2B/SS, Util.

The numbers tell me to keep Helton as a good value, but I’m concerned about walking into the draft without a 1st round talent (well, Pedroia rates out as a 1st rounder in our scoring system).

Any help you can provide would be greatly appreciated! Thanks.

I would not worry at all about having keepers with first-round talent. Instead, focus on how much value is on your roster and how much of a budget you and your fellow owners will bring to the auction.

Because of the net steals category, Abreu probably creates the most raw dollar value of the three, followed by Cabrera then Helton. But they are likely all within a few dollars of each other, making Helton the choice due to the large dollar discrepancy among their contracts.

Helton bounced back nicely from the back problems that plagued him during the 2008 season and turned in a fantasy season that fit in well with what he produced from 2005-2007. It may be that 2009 is the top end of what Helton can produce next season (his .355 BABIP was his highest since 2004) but even if he misses substantial time with injury a-la 2008, he is likely to exceed $2 in value. And if he plays in 150 games again, you will easily wind up with double-digit dollar value, an excellent return and a great building block for a money finish for you.

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According to Foxsports.com and MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez, the Atlanta Braves have come to terms with Troy Glaus on a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

Glaus, 33, has logged nearly 11,400 innings at third base in his career. However, a shoulder injury now limits the 6-4, 240 pound righty batter to the other infield corner. Glaus will take over first base duties in Atlanta, as the Braves look to bridge the gap at the position until top prospect Freddie Freeman is big league ready.

Health is the question mark with Glaus. He underwent right shoulder surgery last January, missing the vast majority of the 2009 season. As he tried to make his way back to the majors, Glaus had problems with a bulging disk in his back. On the rehab trail, Glaus batted .212/.340/.329 in 103 PA spread among High-A, AA and AAA. The former Angel, Diamondback and Blue Jay got just 32 plate appearances with the Cardinals, and was slowed by a strained oblique.

In his halcyon days, Glaus mashed with the best of them. During his last healthy year in 2008, he posted a 131 wRC+, meaning his offense was 31 percent better than average, once adjusted for park and league factors. His career wRC+ is 123, and his ISO is .241. A highly patient hitter (Glaus’ outside swing percentage is just 16.5% since 2002, compared to the 25% MLB average), Glaus has consistently posted healthy walk rates (13.7 BB% career).

It’s hard to say what Glaus has left at this juncture. He also had issues with his right shoulder back in 2003 and 2004, eventually needing surgery that wiped away a portion of his ’04 season. 2007 brought forth a left foot injury that required his going under the knife yet again.

(Injury information courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool).

Keep a close watch on Glaus during the spring. If he’s relatively mended, he could be a cheap source of patience and pop. Of course, Glaus could also walk the Richie Sexson career path of doom.

Which of these two pitchers is going to go for more in your auction this year? Here are their 2009 stats and their 2010 ages:

Player A: 15 W, 2.87 ERA, 238 Ks, 1.026 WHIP, RHP, age 33
Player B: 2 W, 3.61 ERA, 30 Ks, 1.465 ERA, RHP, age 34

Now, that comparison is not really fair, as Player B was obviously hurt at some point while Player A had arguably the best season of his career last year. So, let’s use some career numbers instead.

Player A: 4.19 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Player B: 3.64 ERA, 6.13 K/9, 1.26 WHIP

That closes the gap considerably and you could reasonably opt for Player B, preferring his likely ERA to Player B’s definite K advantage. A lot would depend on the health of Player B and the respective teams of the two pitchers. Let’s throw another piece of information into the mix, the Bill James 2010 projections for both players.

Player A: 15 W, 3.60 ERA, 204 Ks, 1.20 WHIP
Player B: 10 W, 3.64 ERA, 89 Ks, 1.29 WHIP

That projection sees the ERA and WHIP as tossups, but a huge advantage in W and Ks for Player A, in part due to a 68-IP advantage for Player A. The Mock Draft crowd has already spoken, giving an ADP of 57 to Player A , with a high draft position of 41 and a low draft position of 71 in the last 199 drafts. Meanwhile, Player B had an ADP of 192, with a high draft position of 144 and a low draft position of 230.

As you might have guessed, Player A is Javier Vazquez while Player B is Tim Hudson. The Braves essentially had this choice and opted to go with Hudson. They have the best information on his health and they determined he was worth a 3 Year/$28 million contract, which includes a $1 million buyout of a fourth year, also at $9 million. Meanwhile, Vazquez at $11.5 million on the final year of his contract was dealt away in what was at least partially a salary dump.

The Braves would have preferred to have traded Derek Lowe, who is older, less effective and costs more money than Vazquez. But no one was willing to step up and take Lowe off their hands, at least they did not offer a haul greater than that offered for Vazquez, a haul criticized on most Atlanta message boards.

The Braves are generally regarded as a well-run team. They knew that signing Hudson gave them six SP and that they would have to shed the salary of one of them prior to the season. They decided that three/four years of Hudson at $9 million per year was better than one year of Vazquez at $11.5 million plus additional salary the following two seasons or two compensation picks. And they did this knowing that this is the final year for manager Bobby Cox and knowing that the window for another championship for Chipper Jones is closing, too.

From the Braves position, we cannot evaluate this trade until we see what they do with the money freed up in the differences between the salaries of Vazquez and Melky Cabrera, roughly $9 million. Do they trade for Dan Uggla and make him their first baseman? Do they sign Mark DeRosa and make him a starting outfielder? Those are just two of countless options now available.

But what we do know is that we need to reevaluate the 2010 rankings of both Hudson and Vazquez. If the Braves think Hudson is healthy enough to lock up for three or four years, than he is a decent bet to provide better results than his ADP as the 49th SP off the board would indicate. And with Vazquez in the AL, pitching half his games in 2009’s best HR park in baseball, we probably need to adjust him downward from being the 10th SP selected, his current ADP.