Vladimir Guerrero’s monster contract with the Angels has run out, and it’s time for him to hit the open market.

In 2009, Guerrero hit .295 with 15 dingers and 50 RBI in 100 games with the Angels. Vlad’s time was limited due to injury, spending 39 days on the DL with a pectoral strain and another 27 DL days with a calf strain. Vlad’s previously high OBP and OPS league value dropped drastically, as his OPS went below .800 for the first time in his career.

To make matters worse, Vlad only played 2 games in right field for the Angels, losing his OF eligibility in 2010. For a UTIL spot, you are going to need better production from Vlad if he is to warrant a starting spot in your lineup.

To judge whether or not Vlad will improve next year, we need to know if he’s healthy. Assuming he would be healthy in 2009, all the major projection services had him hitting over .300 with 20+ homers. At the lower end of the 2009 projections, Marcel thought he would hit .302/.369/.508 with 23 bombs. Goes to show you, that Vlad can still put up some numbers if he can stay on the field.

If Vlad moves on from the Angels and signs elsewhere this offseason, his teammates probably won’t mind. Kendry Morales would likely slide into the cleanup role, with Juan Rivera moving up from seventh to fifth in the batting order, allowing both of them to improve thier RBI opportunities next year.

For Vlad’s new team, his production will be based solely what kind of a lineup he’s in. Because he may no longer be a home run threat, fantasy owners can only hope for a good number of RBI chances in his new lineup. Vlad will need to stay in the AL, as he cannot withstand the pounding of playing in the field everyday (if at all). Some may think that leaving Angel Stadium could also hurt Vlad’s home runs, as the ballpark ranked second in home runs this year with a 1.22 factor. However, from 2005 – 2008, the stadium was considered bad for homeruns by park factors, and I’m inclined to go with the larger sample size.

Based on early signs, it looks like Guerrero will come back to the Angels for another year, as outside interest seems to be fading. However, keep an eye on Vladdy this offseason, and wait to decide if he is worth a shot in your draft next year.

Let’s have a look at some of the prospects doing well during the fall developmental league in Arizona. All the players listed below could pop up on Major League rosters in 2010, so you may want to remember their names.

Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles NL
Lambo is having some luck in the AFL after a down year in double-A as a 20 year old (He turned 21 recently). During the regular season, the outfielder hit .256/.311/.407 in 492 at-bats. He posted a low BABIP at .298 and did not walk much (7.3 BB%). The left-handed batter did show good gap power with 39 doubles (and 11 homers). Interestingly, he hits southpaws better than right-handers: .317/.372/.523 vs .270/.333/.422 in his three-year career. Manny Ramirez will be a free agent after the 2010 season, right about the time Lambo should be ready for a full-time gig in the Majors. With Ramirez’ advancing age, it becomes more likely that he could spend time on the disabled list in ’10. Lambo could be one of the first players in line for playing time should that happen.

Jordan Danks, OF, Chicago AL
The key with the AFL is too not get too excited with the batting average or how many homers a player hits. Most players are there for extra work, which likely means there is something that they need to improve upon. Danks is a perfect example of that… He was off to an excellent season in ’09 before fading at double-A in the second half. His raw power does not play well in games, in terms of home run power, and he hit just nine homers this past year in just over 400 at-bats. As a result, his strikeout rate of 26.0% is rather high. Danks has made nice strides in the AFL by striking out just 10 times in 58 at-bats. Even better, he’s walk 12 times. If he can keep that up, it will significantly improve his other numbers, which will then make him a more valuable addition to your fantasy squads.

Josh Wilkie, RHP, Washington
The non-drafted free agents are always a good story. Wilkie went undrafted out of George Washington University and he was picked up by the Nationals shortly after the ’06 draft. He posted solid numbers in high-A ball in ’08 and he made it all the way to triple-A in ’09. The right-hander, who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft, began this past season in double-A, where he allowed 48 hits in 49.1 innings. He also posted a walk rate of 2.37 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.30 K/9. His rates improved in 22.1 triple-A innings to 1.61 BB/9 and 10.07 K/9. He also improved his ground-ball rate over ’08 by almost 10% to 54% in ’09. Wilkie has saved 23 games over the past four seasons in the minors, so he has an outside shot of eventually becoming a setup man, and possibly grabbing a few saves here and there, although he does not have a knock-out repertoire: 88-91 fastball, curveball, change-up.

Josh Judy, RHP, Cleveland
A good, reliable reliever is hard to find. Judy is off to a good start in his career. Judy has a better chance of seeing save opportunities in the Majors than Wilkie (above) because the Indians prospect has a stronger repertoire: 90-94 mph fastball, slider and occasional change-up. This past season in double-A, the 23-year-old hurler allowed 35 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.28 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. Judy also allowed just two homers (0.36 HR/9). He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground with a career ground-ball rate right around 50%. In ’09, Judy limited batters to a line-drive rate of just 9.6%. If Chris Perez or Jess Todd (or dare I say Adam Miller) are not the long-term closer answer in Cleveland, Judy could be.

Donnie Veal, LHP, Pittsburgh
Is he just teasing us? Veal has long been an interesting pitcher because of his hard stuff from the left side. However, the 25-year-old hurler has never been able to find the plate on a consistent basis. For example, in 16.1 MLB innings in ’09 out of the ‘pen, Veal posted a walk rate of 11.02 BB/9. However, in 12.2 innings in the AFL, he has allowed just two walks. Don’t get too excited, due to the small sample size and level of competition, but keep an eye on Veal in spring training to see if his adjustments stick for the long term. If they do, keep him in mind in deep NL leagues if you need an extra starter. He could even end up as a closer in Pittsburgh, where he could stick to his fastball/curve combo.

This past July, the Atlanta Braves severed ties with Jeff Francoeur.

Formerly the golden child of the farm system, Francoeur appeared to establish himself as a franchise pillar in 2007. As a 23 year-old, Frenchy increased his walk rate (albeit modestly) and posted a .337 wOBA. His .340+ BABIP suggested he got some fortunate bounces, but few could have predicted his atrocious 2008 season.

Francoeur’s BABIP regressed severely, but he was an unmitigated disaster at the plate:

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

Frenchy posted a stunning -22.7 Park Adjusted Batting Runs in 2008. No other batter in the majors did more damage to his club’s run-scoring chances.

2009 began no better for Francoeur. As a Brave, he batted .250/.282/.352 in 324 PA. But following his July trade to the New York Mets for OF Ryan Church, Francoeur posted a .311/.338/.498 line in 308 PA.

This gave rise to countless “change of scenery” narratives, suggesting all the erstwhile top prospect needed was a one-way ticket out of the Peach State. But did Francoeur really make any changes at the plate that portend to sustained success?

Here are Frenchy’s plate discipline stats with the Braves:

April: 27 O-Swing%, 80.2 Z-Swing%, 89.9 Z-Contact%, 67.1 F-Strike%
May: 42.9 O-Swing%, 79 Z-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact% 69.6 F-Strike%
June: 33.1 O-Swing%, 82.7 Z-Swing%, 89.5 Z-Contact%, 65.6 F-Strike%
July: 40.9 O-Swing%, 78.1 Z-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact% 68 F-Strike%

O-Swing= Outside-Swing Percentage (25% MLB avg)
Z-Swing= Swing pct. on pitches in the strike zone (65.9% MLB avg)
Z-Contact= Pct. of contact on pitches in the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg)
F-Strike= First-Pitch Strike Percentage (58.2% MLB avg)

..And here are his numbers with the Mets:

July: 33.1 O-Swing%, 86.8 Z-Swing%, 93.9 Z-Contact%, 61.8 F-Strike%
August: 37.8 O-Swing%, 79.9 Z-Swing%, 87.8 Z-Contact%, 61.7 F-Strike%
September/October: 37.2 O-Swing%, 83.5 Z-Swing%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 58.7 F-Strike%

Overall with Braves: 35.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Z-Swing%, 87.4 Z-Contact%, 67.6 F-Strike%
Overall with Mets: 36.5 O-Swing%, 82.9 Z-Swing%, 90.2 Z-Contact%, 60.5 F-Strike%

Francoeur put the ball in play on the first pitch or got behind in the count 0-and-1 less often, and he made more contact on pitches within the strike zone. But it’s hard to say that he made any progress whatsoever in terms of working the count. He still hacked at a sky-high number of pitches, both inside and outside of the zone.

Take a look at Francoeur’s BABIP by month:

April:.280
May: .273
June: .267
July: .282
Aug: .368
Sept/Oct: .348

Frenchy’s BABIP with the Braves was .281. With the Mets, it was .343.

According to this XBABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Frenchy’s BABIP with Atlanta (based on HR, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders) should have been around .310. As a Met, his batted ball profile suggested a BABIP between .295 and .300.

Francoeur was unlucky with the Braves, and got plenty of breaks with the Mets. His overall XBABIP for the season was .304, compared to an actual .311 mark. In other words, his overall .280/.309/.423 triple-slash is a pretty accurate reflection of his talents.

Frenchy did hit for more power as a Met, with a .187 ISO and 10 HR compared to a .102 ISO and 5 HR with the Braves. However, there are few signs that the soon-to-be 26 year-old made any sort of alteration in his strike-zone judgment. In his new digs, Francoeur still chased pitches wildly off the plate, walking in 3.7% of his PA (3.8% with the Braves).

Over the next few months, much ink will be spilled on how Francoeur got a new lease on his career and is poised to break out in 2010. Unfortunately, a closer look at his season suggests that he remains the same free-swinger who has been nearly 30 runs below average with the bat during his big league tenure. Approach Francoeur cautiously on draft day.

Dave Cameron and R.J. Anderson have broken the news on the regular blog, but if you haven’t heard, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in the process of acquiring Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Jesse Chavez.

Dave and R.J. have already discussed the value to their real life teams, but what does this do for Iwamura’s fantasy value? Assuming the deal is finalized without any problems, a move to the National League always seems to help a hitter, but because “Aki” isn’t a power threat, the impact will be minimal.

Iwamura probably isn’t draftable unless you’re in a deep or AL/NL only league. However, the addition of a .355 OBP player could help Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge and Andrew McCutchen’s RBI opportunities, bumping them up slightly in the rankings. Also, the addition of a solid defender should help Pirates starters such as Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, as Delwyn Young wasn’t doing them any good at their second base during the second half of 2009.

On the Rays side, this move shows their commitment to using Ben Zobrist as their primary second baseman in 2010, giving him more of a defined role. As R.J. mentioned, Willy Aybar and Sean Rodriguez could also see time, but don’t expect them to give you anything of value with it.

As far as Chavez goes, I wouldn’t worry about him. He’s a mop up guy who shouldn’t be used in high leverage situations, making his fantasy value as close to zero as you can get.

In a scenario that seemed ridiculous at the start of the year, Billy Wagner may be one of the most highly sought after relievers this offseason. Wagner missed the majority of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Wagner rejoined the Mets on August 20th, and pitched two innings before being shipped off to Boston.

Even though he pitched only 15.2 innings this year, he proved to suitors that he was healthy by averaging 94mph+ on his fastball. While he only pitched on back-to-back days once, that issue should be resolved with an offseason of continued rehab and rest.

When Wagner did get the chance to pitch, he was back to his old (young?) self. A 14.94 K/9 helped contribute to a 1.72 ERA (2.33 FIP). A 4.60 BB/9 is disappointing, but with a 1.02 WHIP, it’s excusable.

If anyone owned Wagner for their fantasy playoffs, the only real value he provided was strikeouts, as he did not accumulate any saves while in Boston. However, because Wagner is a free agent, he has a chance to give owners a decent amount of saves next year, depending on which team he chooses.

He will not be back in Boston unless they trade Jonathan Papelbon and guarantee Wagner the closer’s role. So, where else could he end up? Speculation is that he would like to remain close to his home in Virginia, with the Nationals and Orioles as the two closest teams. The Orioles aren’t likely to spend a bundle of money on a closer, and the Nationals may be happy with Mike MacDougal. Plus, I would guess Wagner would like to compete for a title instead of toiling away on a sub-.500 team.

Could a return to the Phillies make sense? Brad Lidge has been shaky this year, and Philadelphia could opt to bring in an outside player to help shore up the back end of the bullpen. Because they owe Lidge $11.5MM next year, and Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero a combined $8.5MM, they aren’t likely to invest much more cash in the ‘pen. Don’t count them out, but don’t expect a huge push from them if Wagner asks for the big bucks. If he’s willing to move away from the East Coast, the Giants and Cardinals could be players, along with the Angels and Tigers.

If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.

If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.

The San Francisco Giants re-signed second baseman Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal late last week. The deal is worth $12 million in total, and it eliminates an $8.1 million option that the club held for 2010. The Giants organization traded for Sanchez in ’09 and gave up prized pitching prospect Tim Alderson to acquire the veteran.

Sanchez, who turns 32 in December, hit .293/.326/.416 in 111 games in 2009, and he missed time with a knee injury, which has now been surgically repaired. He’s expected to be fully healthy for spring training in 2010. After being acquired on July 29, Sanchez appeared in just 25 games with the Giants because of the injury. The new contract helps make up for the fact that the organization traded a promising pitcher (even if Alderson’s value is diminished somewhat at this point) for 25 games worth of an injured veteran second baseman.

From a fantasy perspective, Sanchez’ deal doesn’t really help his value. He will remain with a club that does not have a very potent offense, so the impact on Sanchez’ runs and RBIs will be modest at best. He produces just single-digit home runs and stolen bases, so his value is tied up solely in his batting average in most traditional fantasy leagues. That makes Sanchez a second-tiered option at second base.

Sanchez’ two-year deal likely ends Emmanuel Burriss‘ hope of playing everyday in San Francisco, unless he can supplant the disappointing Edgar Renteria at shortstop, which is unlikely. Sadly, the club probably could have gotten more offensive value – and for the league minimum – from Ryan Rohlinger, who showed pop at triple-A in ’09 with a .188 ISO. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at second base, playing mostly third base in the minors, but he’s shown a modest ability at the keystone. Depth-wise, the organization has middle-of-the-road second-base prospect Nick Noonan, a former first round pick from 2007. He is probably two to three years away from contributing at the MLB level.

Overall on the season, Sanchez posted a WAR of 2.2 and was worth about $10 million, mainly due to his defensive contributions. For similar money, the club would have been better off looking at free agents such as Orlando Hudson (2.9 WAR) or Felipe Lopez (4.6 WAR), although the latter will likely be over-priced on the market due to his above-average offensive season. A cheaper option would have been Akinori Iwamura (1.2 WAR), whose value was diminished by an injury in ’09.

Splashy free agent signings can be alluring for major league clubs. Well-known sluggers are there for the taking, if the price is right. GM’s envision the player popping homers, taking curtain calls and making the pact look like a stroke of genius.

While there are bargains to be found on the free agent market, there are also potential landmines. By definition, the players have six years or more of major league service time, and may well be reaching the end of their peaks. The high-end players offer no discounts: teams are going to pay full-price for their talents.

Too often, GM’s act like impulsive shoppers toting high-limit credit cards. They want the player now. Instant gratification comes at the expense of inking a player past the point at which any real projection of his contributions can be made.

Case in point: Alfonso Soriano. A free-swinger with plenty of thunder in his bat, Soriano hit the free agent market after the 2006 season. He was coming off of his finest campaign in the majors, compiling 5.5 Wins Above Replacement. Soriano blasted the ball for a .377 wOBA, and his transition from second base to the outfield went swiftly.

The Cubs salivated at the prospect of adding an established star to the team’s roster. The North Siders came to terms with Alfonso (31 years old entering the ’07 season), giving him a whopping eight-year, $136M deal.

Soriano’s tenure with the Cubs started off well, as he again compiled 5.5 WAR in 2007 (worth $22.4M). His bat remained strong, with a .380 wOBA. Soriano missed some time with a quadriceps injury, but his first year in Chicago was fruitful.

The righty bopper endured more injury problems in 2008. A calf strain shelved him in April, and then a freak injury broke his hand, keeping him out of commission for nearly two months. Soriano’s lumber was good as ever when he took the field, though, with a .374 wOBA. He posted 3.1 WAR, worth $13.8M on the free agent market.

2009, however, was a different story. A bum left knee plagued Soriano, eventually making him call it quits in early September to get arthroscopic surgery.

He took his customary hack-tastic approach to the dish, swinging at 37 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Soriano swung at 72.2% of pitches within the zone, well above the 65.9% MLB average.

Soriano made more contact than usual on those in-zone offerings, with a Z-Contact% of 87.2 (84.9% average for Alfonso since 2002). But the contact that he made was weaker. Alfonso hammered pitchers for ISO’s of .261 in 2007 and .252 in 2008. In ’09, that figure dipped to .182. His home run/fly ball rate, 15.8% in ’07 and 17.1% in ’08, was a mundane 11.5% this past year.

Over the years, pitchers have been reluctant to feed Soriano fastballs. And for good reason: he has clubbed heaters for a run value of +1.94 per 100 pitches since 2002. By contrast, Soriano has a Pedro Cerrano-like -0.86 run value versus sliders and -0.42 against curveballs. He continued to hit fastballs well in 2009, if not at the prodigious rate of years past (+0.83 runs/100 pitches).

However, opposing hurlers gave him fewer fastballs than ever before. Soriano was challenged with a fastball just 46 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate among batters with 500+ PA (Ryan Howard was first).

Soriano saw the second-highest percentage of sliders among hitters, getting a hard breaking ball nearly a quarter of the time. He flailed to the tune of -1.06 runs/100 pitches. Of course, that looks downright impressive next to his -2.68 mark against curveballs. Alfonso generally holds his own against changeups (+0.17 runs/100 since ’02), but he got tangled up when pitchers pulled the string in 2009 (-1.71 runs/100).

With an aching knee, Soriano stole just nine bases in 11 attempts. His Speed Score has fallen precipitously since he inked that gargantuan contract: 6.3 in 2007, 4.8 in 2008 and 4.4 in 2009 (the MLB average is around five). Another sign of Soriano’s slowing legs: his UZR/150 in left field has gone from +18.4 in ’07, +2.5 in ’08 and -11.6 in ’09.

In all, Soriano posted a career-worst .314 wOBA, with a .241/.303/.423 triple-slash. The shoddy hitting, coupled with his stationary D, resulted in -0.8 WAR (Soriano made $16M for that sub-replacement-level play).

He might have been a little unlucky on balls put in play. Soriano’s BABIP was .280, compared to his .309 career average. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Alfonso’s rate of HR’s, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, grounders and pop ups suggest that his BABIP should have been about .305. That would improve his line to .266/.328/.448 (that’s assuming all hits were singles). Better, but still a far cry from his established level of play.

The Cubs made an all-too-common mistake in signing Soriano until his age-38 season. The organization put down bug bucks on Alfonso’s performance level at the time, paying him as if his skill set would remain unchanged well past the point at which it was reasonable to assume such a thing.

Now, the club is burdened with an $18M-a-year player for the next five seasons, a player nearing his mid 30’s with a troublesome pattern of leg maladies. Perhaps an off-season of rest and rehabilitation will do wonders for Soriano’s aching body. But fantasy players shouldn’t bet a high-round pick on such a scenario. Soriano could bounce back somewhat in 2010, but age and injuries may have robbed him of his once-elite power/speed combo.

Matt Holliday’s value was a big question mark coming into the year, as fantasy (and real) owners did not know what to expect from Holliday in the American League.

Many owners freaked out early on when Holliday started the year with a .240 average and only one home run in the first month of the season. Then, for some unknown reason, no one paid attention when he got back to his old self in May. He ended his A’s career after 93 games with a .286/.378/.454 line to go along with 11 homers and 54 RBI. After going back to the NL, Holliday exploded in a Cardinals lineup that also featured Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick. Holliday hit 13 home runs and drove in 55 in only 63 games, while posting a line of .353/.419/.604.

Holliday’s swing was a topic of conversation early on, mainly due to his slow start. His numbers tend to back this up, with his line drive rate dropping off from the low 20%’s to the mid teens. He also became more selective at the plate, swinging at less pitches and making contact more often. However, most of the patience at the plate came in Oakland, where they likely lectured him on the value of walking. When he got to St. Louis, he starting hacking again, with his swing% coming in above his career average.

Because of his resurgence as a Cardinal, his value is back where it was before the season began. He will be asking for Mark Teixeira money, and a team or two will likely come close to that in an effort to acquire an impact bat. The big boys in Boston, and both New York teams are going to be heavily involved in this process, with the Mets and Red Sox as the most likely landing points. The Cardinals aren’t just going to let him walk without making an effort, but in the end they may not have the leverage and money to pull it off. If the asking price gets too outrageous, teams will turn their attention to Jason Bay, but Holliday is certainly the first option.

If Holliday ends up in Boston, don’t be afraid of how he will fare in the AL. Fenway is a much better place for him to play than Oakland was, and the talent they can put around him will greatly increase his chances for success in the AL East.

If Holliday leaves St. Louis, Albert Pujols isn’t likely to be too happy, but his numbers probably won’t reflect it. His numbers will still be insane, and he is still a top player going into next year, even without Holliday. Holliday leaving could mean free agent Rick Ankiel could return as the everyday left fielder, but the Cardinals are more likely to look outside for help.

When we checked the position and identified the tiers for shortstops going into next year, some readers thought we should break the list down into AL- and NL-only lists in order to help deeper league managers understand potential late-draft steals at the position. Instead of bogging this post down with lists, though, let’s just comb through shortstops that didn’t quite make our top twelve. We’ll be sure to find some value deeper into the rankings.

Some of the players just missing the cut did so because they got a grade of “incomplete” last year. Those players have to be ranked above those that played the whole year and put together poor campaigns, right?

The most exciting non-top-twelve shortstop would have to be Alcides Escobar if only the Brewers are prepared to hand him the job in 2010. The early prognosis is positive. He played 15 of the Brewer’s last 19 games in 2009 and his capable offense (.304/.333/.368) and okay defense (-5 UZR/150) were good enough to be worth about a million dollars per month. His BABIP (.345) looks high, and next to his xBABIP (.296) shows that his batting average is a little risky. He does reach too much (30%), but at least he puts the ball on the ground (52% in 2009) where his plus speed (42 stolen bases against 10 caught stealings in AAA in 2009) can help him find some hits. Call him slightly riskier than Ryan Theriot, but if he comes at a cheaper price, he has a higher upside given his speed.

Mike Aviles also got an incomplete grade in 2009. After bursting onto the scene in 2008, there were some warning signs that Aviles may have some trouble repeating the performance. The biggest worry about his actual performance in 2009, though, were his plummeting contact rates and rising strikeout rates. Pretty much the best thing that Aviles had going for him was his ability to put wood on the ball in the zone (90.7% in 2008) and not strikeout (13.8% in 2008). Both of these attributes were consistent throughout his minor league career, but they both disappeared in 2009 (85.6% contact rate in the zone, 21.7% strikeout rate). He’ll need to recover his old bat-control ways in order to get his job back. The good news is that there’s only Yuniesky Betancourt and his .639 2009 OPS in his way. Given the fact that Aviles’ stats last year were the outliers when considered against his entire career, there’s at least a decent chance that Aviles puts up a good batting average with a little power somewhere on the infield in 2010.

Asdrubal Cabrera makes an interesting case study. His .362 BABIP last year threatens to put some risk into his best category (batting average) when seen alone. But look at that same number next to his lifetime BABIP (.342) and his xBABIP (.340) and you realize that he’s a speedy guy that may have figured out how to get the most of his hits. Perhaps he does it by favoring the ground game (48% groundballs), which does rob him of some power and leave him with little value if the batting average dives. If he can retain his speed (5.9 speed score in 2009, 5.1 career, 2.7 in his poor 2008 showing), Cabrera is a good mid-round bet to repeat the rest of his 2009 numbers.

Back over the National League for a late-round value, we find a newly minted starting shortstop (and another Cabrera) in San Diego’s Everth Cabrera. On the good side of his ledger is the fact that his organization does not have better options and he showed the ability to get on base (10%) and good speed (25 stolen bases in 33 attempts). There are some negatives. Despite some subjective reports of good defense, his UZR/150 was poor (-10.6). Also, his approach at the plate combines too many strikeouts (23.3%) with a paucity of line drives (14.8%) to produce a bit of a limp-noodle combined line (.255/.342/.361). In fantasy, however, all you have to know is that he has speed and can take a walk. Those stolen bases will give you good return on your investment.