Let’s take a trip around the web and see what some other sites are saying two-and-a-half weeks into the offseason…

Paul Singman of The Hardball Times believes 36-year-old first baseman Todd Helton is worth trusting in drafts for the 2010 season. As Singman points out, he has remained a consistent hitter well into his 30s and still delivers the kind of power rates that will lead to useful home run and RBI totals. Helton also holds a .328 career batting average and has shown no discernible signs of slowing down. As long as he can avoid the back problems that hampered him in 2008, the former Tennessee quarterback is primed for another stellar season.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball gives us an early preview of the 2010 Red Sox, and lists some Boston players that might hold strong fantasy implications. Clay Buchholz could be a hidden gem on a strong staff if he can make a few slight improvements. His K/9 was just 6.65 in 2009, a career-low on any level. It was 8.53 in the majors in 2008 and 12.80 at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2007. Buchholz has the potential to develop into a strikeout machine and he may reach full development sooner than later. The post also has a look at Jeremy Hermida’s disappointing strikeout rates as a Marlin and how he might improve now that he’s with the Red Sox.

Fantasy Baseball Junkie thinks speedy outfielders will continue to go undervalued in drafts next season. Players like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and especially Bobby Abreu, can often be had at a discount despite quality numbers all over the fantasy map. As FBJ notes, “There are only two players that have been top 50 fantasy hitters for the past eleven seasons. One of them is Alex Rodriguez; the other is Bobby Abreu.” He was ranked only the 20th best fantasy outfielder for 2010 by CBS and the 54th best hitter by ESPN. Of course, things could change by the time leagues begin drafting.

The fellas over at Razzball give a 2010 fantasy outlook for the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Allen. He should get an opportunity during Spring Training to win Arizona’s starting first base job and has shown enough power in the minor leagues to warrant selection late in drafts next season. That said, he needs to work on his strikeout rate, which stood at an ugly 38.5% in 116 plate appearances last season. The D’Backs already have enough whiffers.

One of the writers over at SB Nation’s Fake Teams had the sixth overall pick in a recent mock draft and selected the Brewers’ Ryan Braun. Here’s his justification: “I chose Braun as I feel there is some position scarcity in the outfield in 2010, and Braun provides you 5 categories in 5×5 leagues, and has increased his RBI totals in each of the last 2 seasons, and hit the 20 marks in SBs in 2009.”

Have a link, question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

One year after capturing the N.L. Central division crown by a sizeable margin, the Chicago Cubs limped to a deflating 83-78 mark in 2009. There were a number of reasons for the downturn, outside of the usual hocus-pocus about goats and an overeager fan with questionable taste in lime green turtlenecks.

Aramis Ramirez missed considerable time with a shoulder injury. Milton Bradley left his power stroke at the airport baggage claim. Alfonso Soriano turned in a sub-replacement-level campaign.

Another oft-cited reason for Chicago’s mild performance was the “sophomore slump” of catcher Geovany Soto. Geo crushed pitchers in 2008 for a .371 wOBA, displaying secondary skills that most backstops could only dream of.

But in 2009, the injury-wracked Soto posted a .310 wOBA. His bat declined by nearly two and a half wins: Soto compiled +17.1 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08, but he declined to -7.7 Batting Runs in ’09. Slowed by shoulder and oblique problems, Geovany lost playing time to Koyie Hill down the stretch. What gives? Was Soto a flash in the pan?

The answer would appear to be a resounding “no.”

Soto drew walks in 11.2% of his PA in 2008, while offering at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). In 2009, he walked 13.1%, while showing even more restraint on out-of-the-zone offerings (17.8 O-Swing%).

Geo’s K rate was largely unchanged. He punched out 24.5% in ’08, and 23.3% in ’09. Soto actually did a better job of making contact this past season. The soon-to-be 27 year-old put the bat on the ball 83.4% of the time on pitches within the zone in 2008. In ’09, his Z-Contact% climbed to 87.3% (87.8% MLB average).

Granted, Soto didn’t hit for as much power in 2009. But how many catchers not named “Piazza” can hold a near-.220 ISO year in and year out? We should have expected that number to regress in 2009. And it’s not like Soto was a weakling this past year: he had a .163 ISO.

So, Soto posted a higher walk rate, swung at fewer pitches off the plate, punched out less often, made more contact on in-zone pitches and still displayed plenty of pop for the position that he plays. How is it that his line tumbled so badly?

In 2008, Geovany had a .337 BABIP. In ’09, his BABIP fell off a cliff, down to .251.

As a catcher who runs like he has a piano strapped to his shoulders (2.0 career Speed Score, compared to the 5.0 MLB average), Soto won’t beat out many close plays at first. But his career minor league BABIP was .359, and his career BABIP in the majors is .310.

We can use Derek Carty’s Expected BABIP tool to get a better idea of Soto’s BABIP range, based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs.

Carty’s tool is based upon the excellent research of Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton. Their work found a positive relationship between BABIP and batter’s eye (BB/K rate), line drive percentage, Speed Score and P/PA. Dutton and Bendix’s XBABIP model does the best job of predicting future BABIP.

Based on his 2008 numbers, Soto’s XBABIP was .316, compared to his actual .337 mark. In 2009, Geovany’s XBABIP was .314. Remember, his actual BABIP was .251, a staggering 63 points lower. Even assuming all additional hits were singles, Soto’s line would have been .281/.384/.444 instead of his actual .218/.321/.381 triple-slash.

Soto had some extra bounces go his way in ’08, and then appeared to have terrible luck on balls put in play in 2009. His core skills, however, scarcely changed. His XBABIP numbers in 2008 and 2009 were nearly identical, and match up quite nicely with his career .310 BABIP.

Bill James’ projections peg Geo for a .273/.361/.469 line in 2010, good for a .362 wOBA. Sean Smith just released his CHONE 2010 projections, and he has Soto at .265/.354/.456. That equates to a wOBA around .355.

For reference, only six catchers with 300+ PA posted a wOBA better than .350 in 2009. The average wOBA at the position was .310.

Don’t forget Soto’s name on draft day. Some may have soured on him, but the Cubs backstop looks like a prime bounce-back candidate.

Either everyone wanted Adam LaRoche last season, or no one did. It’s hard to tell. LaRoche started the year with the Pirates, and was traded to the Red Sox as the trade deadline was still on the horizon. 9 days later, Boston shipped him off to the Atlanta Braves, bringing LaRoche’s pre free agent career full circle.

LaRoche, a notoriously slow starter, ended the season with 25 homers to go along with a .277/.355/.488 line. He also had 83 RBI and 78 runs, and most importantly, 2 steals. His numbers are right in line with what one should expect from LaRoche, as he hit 25 HR and had an identical wOBA (.357) in 2008. The only year he hasn’t had a line drive percentage below 20% was his rookie year in 2004.

With LaRoche, MLB and fantasy teams know what they are getting: a .275 average with 20+ dingers and 80 RBI. No surprises here. Only problem is, the level of consistency he has is not always rewarded. Teams are more likely to go after a player with the upside for a better season than LaRoche can provide, even if it may come back to bite them in the end.

Because of this, LaRoche’s suitors this offseason will be limited. The most likely scenario is LaRoche going back to the Braves on a one or two-year deal. The Giants could also get in on the action if they decide to non-tender Ryan Garko and spend the bulk of their money in the left field market. After those two, it’s a crapshoot for LaRoche on the open market. I do not foresee any AL team pursuing LaRoche and envisioning him as their everyday first baseman.

If he leaves the Braves, his teammates will notice he is gone more off the field than on it. He was a part of the nice streak the Braves put together to end the year, but he is much better at the end of seasons, anyway. The Braves would likely replace him in house, and the numbers from whoever moves over to first will get a boost from extended playing time.

If LaRoche lands a starting gig, owners should prefer that it is with Atlanta. The talent surrounding him is better than that on the Giants, and the stadium is a little more power friendly. You know what you are getting with LaRoche, so make sure he’s starting before letting him sit on your bench next season.

The Arizona Fall League, Major League Baseball’s additional development league for prospects, is starting to wind down for 2009. Let’s have a look at some of the key prospects currently playing in the league.

Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs’ shortstop prospect is looking to make MLB incumbent Ryan Theriot nervous about his job security. The truth of the matter is that Castro currently projects to post similar numbers to that of Mr. Theriot. However, Castro has the edge defensively, so that could cause a shift to second base for the veteran infielder, which would then make Mike Fontenot expendable… perhaps after one more season.

In ’09, Castro hit .302/.340/.391 in high-A, where he spent the majority of the season. He also received a 31-game trial at double-A and held his own as a 19-year-old infielder by hitting .288/.347/.396. He stole 22 bases in 33 attempts in high-A – showing he needs to continue working on his base running skills – but he was perfect in six tries in double-A.

Still very young and developing, Castro looks capable of providing a .280-300 average, five to 10 homers and 20-30 steals in his prime. He’ll likely never be a run producer, and he’ll need to show a little more patience (5.0 BB% in high-A) to score a lot of runs at the top of the order. ETA: Mid-2011

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
This former Yankees prospect has found a new lease on life in the Pirates organization. Tabata had a solid season in his first year in the organization… despite a rough start with some off-field controversy. Still just (supposedly) 21, Tabata began the year in double-A and hit .303/.370/.404 with and ISO of just .101 in 228 at-bats. Moved up to triple-A, the outfielder hit .276/.333/.410 in 134 at-bats. He did bump his ISO up to .134 and his strikeout rate remained good at 13.4%.

Unfortunately, Tabata was successful stealing bases in just 11 out 19 attempts. He’s never been a great base runner and his lower half continues to thicken up so we’re not likely to see a lot of steals in the future. This is a bad thing if Tabata’s power fails to develop, because it’s below-average for a corner outfielder (His likely destination in the Majors because he projects to lose range in center field). He has just one homer in 101 AFL at-bats. ETA: Mid-2010

Jonathan Gaston, OF, Houston Astros
Gaston may have excited more than a few fantasy-league managers in 2009 when he hit 35 homers (An out-of-this-world .320 ISO) and showed speed by stealing 14 bases and legging out 15 triples. He also hit 100 RBI and scored 119 runs, all of which would make him an extremely valuable fantasy prospect. However, he was playing in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball and he posted a strikeout rate of 31.7 K%.

Now, many fantasy leagues won’t penalize you for strikeouts, but they will negatively impact his batting average, which was .278 in high-A ball. During the regular season, Gaston had two very hot months (May and June) when he hit for average, but he hit below .250 in April, July and August. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .111 against southpaws in the AFL in a small-sample size, but he also struggled against them in the regular season: .228/.335/.443 (.373 BABIP). Key an eye on Gaston, but don’t get too excited just yet; the 2010 season will be a big one for the Astros prospect. ETA: Mid-to-late 2011

Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
When an organization has Mike MacDougal as its closer, you know management is praying for something better to come along. Storen, a first-round draft pick from ’09, is currently rocketing through the minors and is on a collision course with the Nationals’ closer role, perhaps sooner rather than later. In ’09, he held batters to a .162 batting average while posting a strikeout rate of 11.61 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.89 (although it slipped later on in the year as he tired).

Even though he posted a solid HR/9 rate of 0.47, Storen is a flyball pitcher (32.6 GB%) so he could end up being a little homer prone in the Majors. He held right-handed batters to a .111 batting average, but he was aided by a ridiculous .158 BABIP. As a fastball-slider pitcher, he may need to find a weapon to combat good left-handed hitters if he’s going to develop into an impact closer. ETA: Mid-2010

In 2008, OF Josh Hamilton finally turned in the kind of season that scouts envisioned when Tampa Bay selected him with the 1st overall pick in the 1999 amateur draft.

Shipped from the Reds to the Rangers in a December 2007 challenge trade for RHP Edinson Volquez, Hamilton crushed to the tune of a .385 wOBA. The lefty clubbed 32 home runs, while posting a .226 ISO and a HR/FB rate of 19.2%.

Sure, the Ballpark in Arlington played a part. According to ESPN’s park factors, Arlington has boosted run scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral ballpark from 2007-2009, while increasing HR production by 14 percent. But Hamilton was no ball park creation. He posted 29.7 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08. Even accounting for the hitter-happy tendencies of his home field, Hamilton was three wins above average with the bat.

Many fantasy players ponied up a primo pick on Hamilton entering 2009. Per Fantasy Gameday’s Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report compiled back in February, Hamilton’s ADP was ninth overall.

Unfortunately, Hamilton’s various aches and pains in ’09 had owners keeling over in anguish as well. The 28 year-old dealt with a laundry list of injuries, most notably a partially torn abdominal muscle requiring surgery in June and a pinched nerve in his lower back that effectively made him a spectator in September.

Getting just 365 PA during the season, Hamilton limped to a .321 wOBA. His ISO plunged to .158. Hamilton hit more fly balls than usual (41.8 percent, compared to about 33 percent from 2007-2008), but those extra flys died in the outfield pasture. His HR/FB rate dipped to 9.2%. Josh was below-average with the stick, with -3.6 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Hamilton still slammed fastballs, hitting them for +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. But anything off-speed flummoxed him: -0.44 runs/100 versus sliders, -2.43 against curveballs and -3.19 versus changeups.

He was extremely aggressive during his banner 2008 campaign, swinging at 34.7% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (25% MLB average) while taking a cut at 80.6% of pitches within the zone (66% MLB average). But Hamilton was even less selective in 2009. He had a 36.1 O-Swing%, with an 85.7 Z-Swing%.

Hamilton swung at more pitches within the zone than any other batter with at least 350 PA (Pablo Sandoval was a distant second, at 82.9%). However, he made contact just 80 percent of the time that he offered at a pitch over the dish (88% MLB average).

His O-Swing% was 13th-highest among hitters with 350+ PA. With Hamilton anxious to get the lumber off his shoulder (he swung at the 9th-most pitches among all batters), he posted a 65.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). Josh got behind the pitcher 0-and-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch at the sixth-highest rate in the majors. His walk rate dipped from 9.3% to 6.7%.

It’s important to keep in mind that all of these numbers came in what amounts to slightly more than a half season’s worth of PA, while Hamilton was far less than 100 percent healthy. The lack of plate discipline is somewhat troubling. But if Josh can remain upright in 2010, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can bounce back.

Bill James 2010 projections are out, and Hamilton is tabbed for a .372 wOBA. While James’ projections tend to smile upon hitters more than most other systems, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more healthy Hamilton post a wOBA somewhere in the .360-.370 range.

Hamilton presents a dilemma for fantasy owners entering 2010. On one hand, he certainly won’t cost a premium draft pick, and a healthier Hamilton has the potential to yield a high return on investment. But on the other hand, should anyone really assume that he will be healthier? Hamilton has three major league seasons under his belt. He has missed big chunks of the year in two of those three seasons.

So, are you feeling lucky? Personally, I would expect Hamilton to hit in the .360-.370 wOBA range, while serving a DL stint or two that limits him to 400-some PA. What do you guys think?

Once again it’s time for the companion piece to the rankings post from Thursdays. We broke down the first basemen this week, and it seemed that the position was deep, with players like Billy Butler, ranked fourteenth on our list, still capable of putting up .280/30/100 years. There’s a lot of value to be found after the top first basemen are off the board.

But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.

Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.

Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.

Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.

By the time right-hander Edwin Jackson got shipped from Tampa Bay to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce, he had acquired the pejorative “thrower, not a pitcher” tag.

You’re likely familiar with Jackson’s story by now. By 19, he was in AA and whiffing over a batter per inning. Prior to the 2004 season, Baseball America named Jackson the best prospect in a Dodgers top 30 list that included the likes of Franklin Gutierrez, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Russell Martin.

BA gushed that Jackson was “the complete package,” fitting “the profile of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher to a tee.” He beat Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday. Jackson looked poised to take LA by storm.

Except he didn’t. The next three years of Jackson’s career were essentially lost, as he got pummeled in AAA and the majors. He couldn’t find the strike zone with a GPS. Exasperated, L.A. jettisoned Jackson to Tampa Bay in January of ’06 for middle relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter. From 2004-2006, Edwin posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 between AAA Las Vegas and Durham. He was a mess.

Two seasons in Tampa’s rotation produced FIP’s of 4.90 and 4.88, respectively. After Jackson’s trade to the Tigers, we chronicled his tenure with the Rays. His ERA dropped dramatically from 2007 to 2008 (5.76 to 4.42), but that supposed progress seemed questionable. Jackson’s walk rate improved, but that came at the expense of considerably fewer K’s. His BABIP dipped 50 points from ’07 to ’08, thanks to historically improved D in Tampa.

One season later, Jackson’s ERA has again dipped by a big margin. In 2009, he registered a 3.62 ERA in 214 frames. With the Tigers facing a payroll crunch (I suppose that can happen when a club has a combined $65.5M tied up in Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson in 2010), Detroit is reportedly willing to listen to offers for Jackson. Is Edwin finally making good on the Baseball America’s bold prognostication?

The 26 year-old did make legitimate progress this past season. His K/BB ratio climbed from 1.4 to 2.3, as he raised his K rate to 6.77 per nine frames while issuing 2.94 BB/9. However, Jackson’s performance was more commensurate with a low-to-mid four’s ERA than his mid-three’s mark. He benefitted from a .281 BABIP, which helps explain the discord between his 3.62 ERA and 4.28 FIP.

Jackson’s searing mid-90’s fastball wasn’t all that special (-0.41 runs/100), but a biting upper-80’s slider (+1.89) made life difficult for opposing batters. He improved his outside-swing percentage from just 21.7% in 2008 to a healthy 27.2% in ’09 (25% MLB average).

As he reached unprecedented territory in terms of innings pitched, Jackson appeared to hit the wall:

April-June (6.98 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.25 FIP)

Fastball/100 pitches: +1.06
Slider/100 pitches: +2.0
Z-Contact%: 87.5
Zone%: 49.6
F-Strike%: 58.4

July-September (6.56 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.35 FIP)

Fastball/100: -1.75
Slider/100: 1.82
Z-Contact%: 88.7
Zone%: 46.8
F-Strike%: 50.8

MLB avg Z-Contact% is 87.8%
MLB avg Zone% is 49.3%
MLB avg F-Strike% is 58.2

Keep in mind that the run values for the fastball and slider are subject to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In Jackson’s case, he had a an extremely low BABIP during the first three months, while giving up few homers. In the second half, his BABIP regressed, as did his HR/FB rate.

But even so, Jackson clearly had problems locating from July onward. His rate of pitches thrown within the strike zone fell three percentage points, and his first-pitch strike percentage plummeted from league-average territory to barely over 50 percent.

In all, Jackson provided 3.5 Wins Above Replacement for the Tigers, a performance worth nearly $16M on the open market. The former Dodger and Ray has two years of team control left.

Jackson clearly took a step forward in 2009, but it’s important not to get too caught up in his ace-like ERA in the first half or his punching bag act in the second half. The truth lies somewhere in between those two extremes. A top-of-the-line arm? Not at the present moment. But Jackson looks like an above-average starter.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.

The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.

The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.

The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.

The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.

At 31 years old, Chone Figgins is one of the better free agents available this offseason, coming off a great season for the Angels. In his 2009 campaign, the speedy Figgins stole 42 bases in 59 tries, while hitting .298/.395/.393. He scored 114 runs as the Angels leadoff man, adding in 5 homers and 54 RBI of his own.

Figgins value in recent years has come from his second base and outfield eligibility, but by playing only 2 games at second and 1 in the outfield during the 2009 season, that aspect of his fantasy game is gone. He will simply be a third baseman in your fantasy leagues next year, making his value drop quite a bit. As a second baseman, the stolen bases and average that Figgins provides were perfect, but stolen bases and no power is not what you should be looking for at third base.

Due to his defense, speed, and on-base ability, Figgins will get many offers this offseason, and will have quite a few teams to choose from. The Cubs could come after Figgins hard, and ask him to play second base for them next year. The White Sox are rumored to be interested in Figgins being their left fielder, but they don’t have the money to meet his asking price. If he wants to stay at third base, the Cardinals could be interested, and he could always stay with the Angels. If the Phillies decide to go with Figgins over Adrian Beltre and Pedro Feliz, his value would skyrocket due to the huge amount of talent that would be hitting behind him.

If he leaves the Angels, Kendry Morales and Torii Hunter’s RBI opportunities will go down, with Erick Aybar or Bobby Abreu likely taking over the leadoff duties. Replacing him would not be easy, with Beltre possibly staying in the AL West.

Figgins’ best value would be with the Cubs or White Sox, because moving him away from third base would allow owners to better utilize his skill set at a position where it is a better fit. However, the Phillies are still a great spot for Figgy to end up, but you’ll have to find power in more unconventional ways then before. He will give you steals and a decent average wherever he goes, with his value increasing dramatically in OBP leagues.

Angels right-hander Ervin Santana entered the 2009 season with plenty of helium. In 2008, Santana bumped his fastball velocity to a career-high 94.4 MPH, with his wicked slider also popping the mitt harder than ever before at 84 MPH.

Santana was thoroughly dominant in ’08, whiffing 8.79 hitters per nine innings, while issuing only 1.93 BB/9. That combination of force and finesse led to a 3.30 FIP, which ranked 4th among A.L. starters.

Santana’s season wasn’t fluky. Sure, the fly-ball slanted starter gave up a homer on 8.9% of his fly balls, a rate that we would expect to regress more toward the 11-12% MLB average. But Ervin garnered plenty of outside swings, with a pared-down contact rate and an excellent first-pitch strike percentage.

His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on a pitcher’s K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) was 3.64. That also ranked 4th in the A.L. Any way you cut it, Ervin was among the top starters in the Junior Circuit.

Looking to lock up the talented righty before his salary exploded in arbitration, the Angels inked Santana to a 4-year, $30M extension prior to the 2009 season. The contract also included a $13M club option for 2013.

Just when it looked as though Santana would settle in as one of the better arms in the A.L., injuries took their toll. Ervin had a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. The sprain was not considered severe enough for Tommy John surgery to be the best course of action, so Santana took the rest and rehabilitation route.

Santana took the mound for the first time in 2009 on May 14th. He would make six starts before heading back to the DL, this time with a triceps injury.

He returned in July, and would go on to post a 5.03 ERA in 139.2 frames. Santana’s K rate dipped to 6.89. While his walk rate remained decent (3.03 BB/9), Ervin’s gopher-itis returned. He served up 1.55 HR/9. Santana’s 12.8 HR/FB% was perhaps a little high, but not obscenely so. Rather, the soon-to-be 27 year-old just gave up a ton of fly balls: his FB% was 42, one of the 20 highest rates among starters.

Santana’s XFIP climbed to 4.77. His BABIP (.320) was rather high, but Ervin clearly wasn’t the same fire-breathing starter. His percentage of contact within the strike zone was 91.2%, two percentage points above his career average and well above the 87.8% MLB average.

His slider remained nasty (+1.92 runs/100 pitches), but Santana’s fastball was thumped. The pitch has been a bit below-average during his career (-0.27 runs/100), but in 2009 it was shredded for -1.39 runs/100. Among starters tossing 130+ IP, Santana had the fifth-worst heater on a per-pitch basis.

Santana’s fastball took a roller coaster ride in 2009. The pitch gained velocity as the year progressed, with run values all over the map:

Santana’s fastball, by month

May: 90.7 MPH, -4.28 runs/100
June: 91.2 MPH, +1.11 runs/100
July: 92.2 MPH, -2.48 runs/100
Aug: 92.3 MPH, -0.16 runs/100
Sept/Oct: 93.3 MPH, -0.16 runs/100

His vaunted slider also gained a few ticks during the year, though the pitch remained effective all season:

Santana’s slider, by month

May: 81.1 MPH, +1.98 runs/100
June: 81.4 MPH, +3.99 runs/100
July: 82.3 MPH, +1.57 runs/100
Aug: 82 MPH +1.74 runs/100
Sept/Oct: 83.3 MPH, +1.96 runs/100

Santana’s increased fastball zip and performance offer some hope heading into the 2010 season. By the end of the year, Ervin’s fastball looked more like the ’08 version, as opposed to a batting practice pitch that hitters couldn’t wait to beat into submission.

Watch Santana’s health closely as spring training approaches. He’s unlikely to reach the heights of 2008, but he could be a bargain if his elbow problems are in the rearview mirror.