Before the season we wrote a lot of player profiles here at RotoGraphs. The ones I wrote focused on fantasy impacts, frequently mentioning if a player was under or overvalued compared to his ADP. Now that the season is over, I would like to focus on ones that were particularly notable, both for good and bad.

The Poor Predictions

Mike Pelfrey
Prediction: “It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.”

Reality: 10 W, 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.22 K/9 (107 Ks in 184.1 IP)

Notes: In six games in May, Pelfrey was 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. His next lowest ERA month was July’s 4.84 and his next lowest WHIP was the 1.50 he posted in September.

Derrek Lee
Prediction: “Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league. … What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion.”

Reality: Last Player Picked has Lee as the sixth-best first baseman in 2009. He hit 35 HR this season, with 15 of those coming in road parks.

Notes: At the end of May, this forecast was right on, as Lee had a .248/.325/.411 line through 38 games. From June 1st to the end of the year, Lee hit .327 with 30 HR and 92 RBIs in 103 games.

Garrett Atkins
Prediction: “[I]t makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.”

Reality: Atkins was one of the worst players in fantasy this year, with a .226-9-48-37-0 fantasy line.

Notes: There was one brief bright spot this year for Atkins, who hit .327/.393/.509 in June but the rest of the season was horrific.

Jorge Posada
Prediction: “Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Posada as the fifth most valuable fantasy catcher.

Notes: Posada made 88 starts at catcher, his fewest (injury-shortened 2008 aside) since 1998.

Carl Crawford
Prediction: “Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value…. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Crawford as the 10th-best fantasy hitter. Crawford attempted 76 steals and ended up with 60 SB.

Notes: Crawford had 668 of his 672 PA in the second spot in the lineup.

But there were many good predictions, too, even if the above are the ones that jump immediately to mind.

More Successful Ones

Asdrubal Cabrera
Prediction: “Cabrera will be an afterthought on Draft Day in most mixed leagues next season. But by the end of the season he will be on an active roster in most leagues. He is definitely someone to consider in the final rounds of your draft.”

Reality: He was owned in 84 percent of CBS Sports leagues at the end of the year after starting with an ESPN ADP of 260.

Notes: Cabrera will once again have eligibility at both 2B and SS in 2010.

Ryan Zimmerman
Prediction: “Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.”

Reality: Zimmerman ranked as the 17th-best fantasy hitter according to Last Player Picked and finished with 110 R and 106 RBIs.

Notes: After three consecutive seasons of nearly identical HR/FB rates, Zimmerman had a career-best 15.9 percent mark in the category, which led to 33 HR, a personal best.

Prince Fielder
Prediction: “Fielder may be slightly undervalued by the mock drafting crowd (ADP: 26). The mockers prefer Justin Morneau, who on average is going six slots ahead of Fielder. Morneau provided much more value in 2008, but I would prefer Fielder’s power over Morneau’s RBI bat this season.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Fielder as the fouth-best fantasy hitter while Morneau finished outside the top 50 after his mid-September injury. Fielder finished with 46 HR.

Notes: Fielder led the NL with 141 RBIs.

Cole Hamels
Prediction: “Hamels will have to improve on last year’s outstanding season to be worth a fourth-round pick. And there are enough warning signs around him to make passing on him in that slot an easy choice.”

Reality: Hamels fell off in all four categories from 2008 and was outside of the top 30 pitchers.

Notes: Hamels had an ADP of 41.

Jacoby Ellsbury
Prediction: “Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise? Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP (67).”

Reality: Ellsbury finished with 70 SB and 94 R en route to being the 14th-best fantasy hitter, according to Last Player Picked.

Notes: Ellsbury outearned Ichiro, with his 44 SB edge being more valuable than Ichiro’s 51-point AVG advantage.

Other predictions that turned out well included ones for Markakis, Bay, K. Johnson, Victorino, A. Soriano and Haren. I was more bullish than the ADPs for Choo and Mauer although both outperformed my expectations for them.

On Tuesday evening, Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello will look to tame the Twins and pitch his club into a divisional series matchup against the leviathan otherwise known as the New York Yankees. Much has been written about the 20 year-old’s ascension from Seton Hall Prep to the Motor City in the blink of an eye. Just how has Porcello combated unrelenting American League line-ups as a 20 year-old? Let’s take a look.

Porcello, of course, spent very little time on the farm. The highly-touted 6-5 starter came with all the scouting accolades, but teams selecting at the top of the 2007 amateur draft shied away. The Tigers, at pick number 27, finally came calling, gambling that an agreement could be reached. Detroit eventually kept Porcello from becoming a North Carolina Tar Heel, dishing out a cool $3.58M bonus.

Making his pro debut in 2008, Porcello tossed 125 frames for Lakeland of the High-A Florida State League. In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America noted that Rick’s best offering was “a heavy two-seamer that averages 92 MPH and ranges up to 95, with boring action in on the hands of right handers.” That pitch was on full display in the FSL, as Porcello posted a 64.1% groundball rate. He also did a nice job of painting the black (2.38 BB/9), though his strikeout rate was less than anticipated for a premium prospect (5.18 K/9).

Baseball America offered some clues as to why that whiff rate was modest. He “shelved his slider to focus on his curveball”, and the Tigers “placed him on a 75-pitch limit for each start.”

In 2009, Porcello shot straight to the majors. Heading into his tilt with the Twins, Rick has racked up 165 frames in his rookie campaign. He has again burned worms at an impressive clip, inducing a grounder 54.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate in the A.L., and places fifth among all starters. Porcello has been stingy with the walks as well, issuing 2.73 BB/9.

In most cases, there’s a trade-off between grounders and punch outs; more of one usually entails less of the other. That has certainly been the story with Porcello. He has whiffed just 4.42 batters per nine frames, fourth-lowest among starters. Only Joel Pineiro, Nick Blackburn and John Lannan have fooled fewer batters on a per-inning basis.

The reason for the lack of swings and misses becomes apparent when one looks at Porcello’s pitch usage. Rick has relied upon a 91 MPH sinker about 77 percent of the time. True to the scouting reports, that pitch has excellent tailing action in on the hands of righty batters and is responsible for the hefty groundball rate.

But, as Harry Pavlidis showed earlier this summer, that sinker gets very few whiffs. Still, Porcello’s boring two-seamer has been worth +0.81 runs per 100 pitches this season.

Porcello does feature three other pitches: an 81 MPH slider (used about five percent of the time), 77 MPH curveball (eight percent) and an 81 MPH changeup (ten percent). None of those offerings are instilling much fear in opposing batters, though. Porcello’s slider comes in at -1.17 runs/100, with the curve worth -2.53 per 100 tosses. He hasn’t pulled the string especially well, either (-0.98).

Armed with one plus pitch and a three other seldom-used offerings in their nascent stages of development, Porcello has often had the ball put in play against him. His overall contact rate is 84.7% (80.5% MLB average), with opponents putting the bat on the ball 91 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87.8% MLB average).

It’s not especially surprising that Porcello, using a sinker nearly four out of five pitches, has generated so few K’s. As Dave Allen explained back in August, there is a positive relationship between the vertical movement of a fastball and its whiff rate (the higher in the zone, the more whiffs generated; the lower in the zone, the fewer whiffs gotten).

There is also an inverse relationship between vertical movement and groundball rate. In other words, a fastball thrown high in the strike zone is likely to generate more swings and misses, while generating fewer groundballs. By contrast, a fastball like Porcello’s, buried at the batter’s knees low in the zone, is going to garner a higher groundball rate but few whiffs.

At an age where most pitching prospects are in A-Ball attempting to refine their secondary stuff, Porcello has managed to keep his head above water in the DH league. But his FIP (4.81) is more indicative of his performance than his ERA (4.04). Porcello obviously has plenty of development time left, though, and has a strong base of skills to build upon.

With strong groundball tendencies and quality control, Rick doesn’t have to post obscene K rates to be a successful starter. Will Porcello become a different sort of pitcher in the years to come, mixing in more breaking balls and changeups? That would likely lead to more strikeouts, but may come at the expense of some of those grounders.

That’s a question for another day, though. For now, Porcello will look to get Twins batters to chop that sinker into the dirt often enough to clinch a playoff berth.

Sunday is the last scheduled day of the regular season and congratulations if you are still in contention for a money spot and can pick up a guy going in Game 162. Here are the pitchers going Sunday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Bailey. Had his longest outing since 6/5 when he went 5 IP, gave up 2 ER and picked up the win 9/30 versus the Cubs. However, he fanned only one. For the season Karstens has a 4.26 K/9 but has just 2 Ks in his last five outings, covering 10.2 IP.

Homer Bailey (49%) – Has a home start versus Karstens and the Pirates. In his last eight games he is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 46 Ks in 52.1 IP. Bailey is 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in the Great American Ball Park this year and is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games versus Pittsburgh.

Wilton Lopez (1%) – Has a road start in New York against Figueroa. In his first start of the season Lopez allowed 5 ER in 3.2 IP against the Phillies and saw his ERA rise to 9.42 for the season.

Nelson Figueroa (6%) – Has a home start versus Lopez and the Astros. Figueroa lost his fifth straight game in his last outing but deserved a better fate. as he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP and had 5 Ks. It was his second straight loss with a Quality Start. Figueroa is 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA this season in Citi Field. He has yet to face the Astros this season.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Hudson. In his last start, Martin allowed 3 ER in 6 IP but got a no-decision. He is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts. Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in road games this season but he has yet to face the Braves in 2009.

Jeremy Guthrie (28%) – Has a home start versus Romero and the Blue Jays. Despite pitching a Quality Start (7 IP, 3 ER) in his last outing, Guthrie dropped his fourth straight decision. This year he is 5-8 with a 4.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Guthrie is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA in three games against Toronto this season.

Tomo Ohka (0%) – Has a road start in Boston against Buchholz. Ohka pitches for the first time since 9/19 and makes his first start since 7/18. He is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in 28.2 road innings this year. Ohka has not pitched against the Red Sox in 2009.

Wade Davis (36%) – Has a home start versus Barnett and the Yankees. Davis picked up his second win of the season in his last outing, when he hurled 7 IP and gave up 1 ER versus the Orioles. He has a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP at Tropicana Field this year but Davis has yet to face New York.

Luke Hochevar (24%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Pavano. In his last six games, Hochevar is 1-5 with an 8.47 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 7.53 ERA in road starts this year. However, in two starts versus the Twins, Hochevar is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Pineiro. In his last five starts, Suppan is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA in road starts in 2009. Suppan is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four games against the Cardinals this season.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Dempster. In his last eight games, Davis is 1-4 with a 6.20 ERA, with 24 BB and 8 HR in 45 IP. He is 3-7 with a 4.58 ERA in road games this year. Earlier this season, Davis pitched seven socreless innings against the Cubs, fanned seven and picked up the win.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Saunders and the Angels. In his last nine starts, Gonzalez is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA but with 54 Ks in 47 IP. He is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA this season at McAfee Coliseum. Gonzalez 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts against the Angels.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start versus Sanchez and the Giants. Made his first start in the majors 9/29 against the Dodgers and went 5 IP with 1 ER but got a no-decision. Ramos hit 94 with his fastball versus Los Angeles.

Vicente Padilla (32%) – Has a home start versus Marquis and the Rockies. Padilla returns to the rotation after making a relief appearance 9/30 versus the Padres. In seven games since joining the Dodgers, he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA with 28 Ks in 34.1 IP. Padilla has a 4.35 ERA in two games this year in Dodger Stadium and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this season against Colorado.

Florida Marlins righty Ricky Nolasco entered the 2009 season with some serious helium. The former Cubs prospect overcame an elbow injury that curtailed his 2007 campaign to post a breakout performance in 2008.

In 212.1 IP, Nolasco compiled a 3.77 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). The California native punched out 7.88 batters per nine innings, while also exhibiting razor-sharp control with 1.78 BB/9. Nolasco came equipped with a dizzying array of pitches, able to zip a solid low-90’s fastball by hitters, buckle knees with a low-80’s slider or mid-70’s curve or pull out the occasional low-80’s splitter. Ricky was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, providing the cost-conscious Fish with $16M in production for a dirt-cheap salary.

As the 2009 season wraps up, Nolasco’s surface stats would lead one to believe that he has been a bust. After all, his ERA is over five (5.06), and he was demoted to the minors in late May.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

If anything, the skills over which Nolasco has the most direct control have gotten stronger. Ricky has whiffed 9.49 hitters per nine frames, sandwiching him between Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw for 7th among all starting pitchers. Nolasco remains precise, too, with 2.14 BB/9. That’s in the top 20 for starters. His FIP is down to 3.35, ranking just behind Dan Haren and in front of Ubaldo Jimenez.

Nolasco’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped somewhat, from 63.6% in 2008 to 60.9% in 2009 (that’s still above the 58.2% MLB average). But he has induced more hacks on pitches out of the zone, with an O-Swing% increase from 28.6 in ’08 to 29.3 in ’09 (25.1% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 79.3% in 2008, is 78.2% this year (80.5% ML average). Based on his FIP, Nolasco has compiled four WAR this season, providing $18M worth of value for the Marlins.

So, why is there such a large discord between Nolasco’s ERA and his FIP? His BABIP sits at a lofty .336, third-highest among all starters. Florida’s fielders haven’t helped, ranking 22nd in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Ricky’s rate of stranding runners on base is also unusually low, at an even 61 percent (the average for starters tends to be around 70-72 percent). That’s the worst mark for a starter in the majors.

Ricky did give up a higher percentage of line drives this season (21.8%, 20.3% career average). But, it’s difficult to say with any degree of certainty whether that’s a legitimate increase or just the product of official scoring bias.

Line drives don’t just “exist”-they’re a subjective judgment by the official scorer. And, as Brian Cartwright displayed last off-season, the rate at which line drives are coded can vary dramatically by stadium. It wouldn’t seem as though opponents are getting good wood on Nolasco, given the strength of his peripherals and plate discipline numbers.

And the extremely low stand rate? Nolasco’s career rate at stranding runners on base in 67.9 percent. That’s below the aforementioned average for starters. But even if Ricky struggles a little with runners on base, his 2009 line with ducks on the pond involves some poor luck:

Nolasco with men on base:

2006: 2.27 K/BB, .355 BABIP
2008: 2.74 K/BB, .268 BABIP
2009: 2.31 K/BB, .360 BABIP

He hasn’t performed drastically different with runners on, but his BABIP in such situations has fluctuated greatly.

In all likelihood, Nolasco’s sky-high BABIP will fall, and his strand rate will return from the nether regions. Despite the lousy-looking ERA, Ricky ranked among some of the best in the business in terms of fooling batters and limiting the free passes. Don’t hesitate to draft him in 2010-there’s nothing wrong with Nolasco.

Here on Saturday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Saturday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Daniel Cabrera (2%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Wells. Cabrera does not have the fastball he once had, although he can still reach the mid-90s. However, the walks are just as bad as they have always been. He is averaging 7.63 BB/9 this year. As if that was not bad enough, he has a .321 BABIP and a 58 percent strand rate.

Yorman Bazardo (1%) – Has a road start in New York versus Misch. In five games as a starter, Bazardo is 1-2 with a 9.43 ERA. He can hit the mid-90s with his fastball, but like Cabrera he has averaged more walks (6.26) than strikeouts (5.60) per nine innings this year. Bazardo has a 1.44 GB/FB ratio but a 25.8 LD%. It all adds up to a pitcher who has allowed 25 ER in 27.1 IP in the majors this season.

Pat Misch (3%) – Has a home start versus Bazardo and the Astros. After three straight poor outings, the Mets threatened to remove Misch from the rotation. But he got another chance and hurled a complete game shutout in his last start. Misch is 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA in Citi Field but has not faced Houston this season.

David Bush (22%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Lohse. In his last seven starts, Bush is 2-5 with an 8.10 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 6.79 ERA in road games this year. Against the Cardinals Bush is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA and a 1.935 WHIP.

Kyle Lohse (41%) – Has a home start versus Bush and the Brewers. In his last eight games, Lohse is 2-3 with a 6.48 ERA. This year he is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA in Busch Stadium. In two appearances versus Milwaukee, Lohse is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA.

Dana Eveland (5%) – Has a home game versus Kazmir and the Angels. In 12 IP since being recalled from the minors, Eveland is 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA. Overall, he is 2-0 with a 4.60 ERA in McAfee Coliseum. In two games this year versus the Angels, Eveland has no record but a 7.71 ERA.

Anibal Sanchez (35%) – Has a road game in Philadelphia against Hamels. Sanchez is 1-2 in his last five games but he has a 2.51 ERA in that stretch, with 27 Ks in 28.2 IP. This season he has a 2-5 record with a 4.80 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Phillies, Sanchez pitched eight scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

Scott Richmond (35%) – Has a road game in Baltimore against Hendrickson. In his last 10 games, Richmond is 2-5 with an 8.21 ERA. This year he is 4-5 with a 5.99 ERA in road games. But against the Orioles, Richmond is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA this season.

Mark Hendrickson (2%) – Has a home start versus Richmond and the Blue Jays. Hendrickson started the first seven games of the season and then moved to the bullpen in mid-May. He returned to the rotation in mid-September and has made three straight starts, in which he is 0-1 with a 4.11 ERA. In that span, Hendrickson has 3 Ks and 5 HR in 15.1 IP. He is 3-2 with a 5.73 ERA at Camden Yards this year. In four games against Toronto, Hendrickson is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA.

Freddy Garcia (14%) – Has a road game in Detroit against Figaro. Garcia has pitched at least six innings in each of his last seven games. In his last outing against the Tigers, he allowed 7 ER in 6.1 IP on 9/26.

Alfredo Figaro (1%) – Has a home start versus Garcia and the White Sox. Figaro had two starts for Detroit in the middle of the season and two relief appearces since being recalled in mid-September. He can dial it up in the mid-90s, which has led to an 8.04 K/9 this season for Detroit. But a 4.60 BB/9 combined with a .374 BABIP has made things tough for the rookie from the Dominican Republic.

Aaron Laffey (28%) – Has a road start in Boston against Beckett. Laffey has lost five consecutive starts and has a 5.46 ERA in that stretch. In 29.2 IP, he has a 2.023 WHIP and 9 Ks. He is 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA in road games this year and in 3 IP versus the Red Sox has not allowed an earned run.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (43%) – Has a home start versus Hunter and the Rangers. In his last 13 games, Rowland-Smith has eight Quality Starts. He is 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA at Safeco Field but has not faced Texas this season.

Wade LeBlanc (16%) – Has a home start versus Cain and the Giants. In his last five games, LeBlanc is 2-0 with a 2.48, with four of those starts coming on the road. In two games at Petco, LeBlanc has no record and a 4.00 ERA. He allowed 2 ER in 7 IP and picked up the win in his only outing against San Francisco this season.

Here on Thursday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Friday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Billy Buckner (4%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Gorzelanny. In his last four starts Buckner is 1-0 with a 3.33 ERA with 22 Ks in 24.1 IP. He is 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA in road starts this year but has not faced the Cubs this season.

Tom Gorzelanny (19%) – Has a home start versus Buckner and the Diamondbacks. Since joining the Cubs, Gorzelanny is 4-1 with a 4.58 ERA with 37 Ks in 35.1 IP. He is 2-0 with a 5.11 ERA in Wrigley Field but has not faced Arizona this season.

David Purcey (8%) – Has a road start in Baltimore against Berken. Since being recalled from Triple-A in mid-September, Purcey has a 2.89 ERA in 18.2 IP. He has allowed just 1 HR in that stretch and has 12 Ks. He faced Baltimore on 9/21 and picked up the win, as he allowed just 1 ER in 7.2 IP.

Jason Berken (1%) – Has a home start versus Purcey and the Blue Jays. In his last seven starts, Berken is 3-1 with a 6.03 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 5.76 ERA in Camden Yards and is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA against Toronto this season.

Rick VandenHurk (9%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia against Blanton. VandenHurk has not picked up a decision in his last four outings, but has a 3.43 ERA with 14 Ks in 21 IP in that span. He is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in road games this year and allowed 4 ER in 6 IP in his only outing versus the Phillies this season.

Jeremy Sowers (6%) – Has a road start in Boston against Matsuzaka. Sowers started the season 2-7 with a 5.77 ERA but since then has gone 4-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 62.2 IP. Unfortunately, he has 20 Ks and 25 BBs in that stretch. Sowers is 3-5 with a 5.63 ERA in road games this season. In his one game against the Red Sox, he allowed 7 ER in 5 IP and took the loss.

Daniel McCutchen (4%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Maloney. McCutchen has allowed 5 HR in 30 IP in the majors after allowing 10 HR in 142.2 IP in Triple-A. His last outing against the Dodgers was the first game in the majors in which he did not surrender a gopher ball. The Reds have hit 91 of their 155 HR at the Great American Ball Park.

Matt Maloney (2%) – Has a home start versus McCutchen and the Pirates. After losing his first four decisions in the majors, Maloney has reeled off back-to-back wins, allowing 4 ER in 12 IP. He has a 1-2 record with a 5.96 ERA in four home starts and has yet to face the Pirates this season.

John Maine (37%) – Has a home start versus Rodriguez and the Astros. Maine has made three starts since returning from the disabled list and was rocked in his last outing, as he allowed 7 ER in 4.2 IP versus the Marlins. He is 5-1 with a 2.12 ERA at Citi Field this season but has not faced Houston this year.

Livan Hernandez (14%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Lowe. Since joining the Nationals, Hernandez is 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA in seven games. However, he has five Quality Starts in that span. In his other two outings he allowed 14 ER in 8.2 IP. Hernandez is -2 with a 5.20 ERA in Nationals Park this season and is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two games versus the Braves.

Lenny DiNardo (0%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Manship. In his last outing on 9/26, DiNardo also faced the Twins and gave up 7 R (3 ER) in 5 IP and took the loss. In four games this season, DiNardo has a 2.72 GB/FB ratio but has a .401 BABIP and a 57.9 percent strand rate.

Jeff Manship (2%) – Has a home start versus DiNardo and the Royals. Manship returns to the rotation this week after allowing 1 ER in 3.2 IP as a reliever last week in Kansas City. He also fanned five batters in that 9/27 outing. In four games as a starter, Manship has 0-1 record with a 6.89 ERA.

Braden Looper (32%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Wainwright. In his last eight games, Looper is 3-1 with a 5.32 ERA. He has allowed 9 HR in 45.2 IP in that span. Looper has a 1.86 HR/9 this season and has a 16.3 percent HR/FB ratio, the second highest mark among qualified hurlers. He has a 9-3 record with a 5.25 ERA in road starts this season. Looper is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals this year, the team he pitched for the previous three seasons.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Weaver and the Angels. The last four starts of the year have been a microcosm of Gonzalez’ season, with two Quality Starts and two games he did not get out of the fourth inning. He is 2-4 with a 6.85 ERA at McAfee Coliseum and in his one start versus the Angels this year, Gonzalez hurled 6.1 scoreless innings with 7 Ks.

Kevin Correia (44%) – Has a home start versus Zito and the Giants. In his last six games, Correia is 4-0 with a 1.90 ERA, with 33 Ks in 42.1 IP. And four of those starts came on the road. In Petco Park, Correia is 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA this year. In three games against the Giants, he is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA.

Brandon McCarthy (23%) – Has a road start in Seattle against Snell. In his last four starts, McCarthy is 1-2 with a 4.03 ERA. He is 3-3 with a 5.79 ERA in road games this season and he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP in a no-decision earlier this season versus the Mariners.

Ian Snell (25%) – Has a home start versus McCarthy and the Rangers. Since joining the Mariners, Snell is 5-2 with a 4.17 ERA in 11 games. Those numbers are even better in his last eight outings, in which he has a 2.80 ERA. Walks are still a problem for Snell. Even in his last eight games, he has permitted 24 BBs in 45 IP. For the year he has a 5.18 BB/9 mark.

On July 1st, the following scrolled across the transaction wire:

Pittsburgh Pirates purchased the contract of outfielder Garrett Jones from Indianapolis of the International League (AAA).

Few, if any, in the baseball community so much as batted an eye. After all, Jones was a 28 year-old minor league slugger, a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum who drifted through the Atlanta and Minnesota systems without distinguishing himself. He was a warm body for a team in transition.

As the 2009 season comes to a close, however, Jones has certainly caught the attention of Pirates fans looking to divert their attention from the whole…”longest consecutive losing season streak in professional sports” thing. Splitting time between the outfield corners and first base, Mr. Jones has crushed the horsehide to the tune of .297/.374/.581 in 345 plate appearances.

In his first extended look in the majors, Garrett has walked in 11.4 percent of his PA, with a mammoth .284 Isolated Power. Among batters with at least 300 trips to the plate, Jones places 7th in ISO. His whopping .402 wOBA puts him between Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez. He has even swiped 10 bags in 12 tries.

Jones has jolted fastballs like few others, with a run value of +2.26 per 100 pitches seen. That’s 10th among big league batters. The 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter actually has a positive value against all pitches seen on a regular basis: +0.19 vs. sliders, +1.23 vs. curveballs and +1.63 vs. changeups.

So, Jones has been a beast this summer. But the question is, where in the name of Shane Spencer did this outburst come from?

A 14th-round pick by the Braves in the 1999 amateur draft, Jones had a completely nondescript minor league track record entering this season. He spent three years in Rookie Ball, slugging .330. A-Ball went little better, with Jones posting OPS figures well under .700.

Garrett finally hit with authority in AA as a 23-year old in 2004 (.311/.356/.593), but any prospect momentum screeched to a halt with a lousy .244/.297/.445 line at AAA the following season. Jones spent five seasons at the AAA level, and none of them translated well to the highest level:

(major league equivalencies from Minor League Splits)

2005
Actual:.244/.297/.445
MLE: .213/.253/.376

2006
Actual: .238/.302/.430
MLE: .211/.265/.366

2007
Actual: .280/.334/.473
MLE: .242/.286/.395

2008
Actual: .279/.337/.484
MLE: .245/.291/.412

2009
Actual: .307/.348/.502
MLE:. 259/.291/.408

Despite spending half of a decade in AAA, Jones never dominated the level. His best work came recently, but those equivalencies basically painted him as Mike Jacobs circa 2009. Unless you’re Dayton Moore, that’s not very appealing.

Jones’ 2009 projections from CHONE, Oliver and ZiPS were similarly lukewarm:

CHONE: .259/.318/.451
Oliver: .242/.324/.398
ZiPS: .254/.304/.427

Where does Garret go from here? Because of his thunderous performance since his call-up, Jones is almost assured to enter the 2010 season with a clear shot at playing time. There’s little doubt that he won’t sustain this level of play. We have three months of out-of-this-world hitting, weighed against a decade’s worth of mundane numbers.

Fantasy owners would be best served by remaining skeptical. Not that Jones should be ignored, but his work this past summer eclipses his previous track record by a shocking margin. The best-case scenario would probably entail Jones retaining some of the gains he made in terms of working the count, while popping a healthy number of extra-base hits.

Given his larger body of work, the odds aren’t very good that Mr. Jones is gonna be a big star. But the Pirates would settle for a cheap, decent bat who can shift between first and the outfield corners.