It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Chris B. Young (33%) – It has been a brutal season for Young, who currently finds his average beneath the Mendoza line. But he has 4 HR in nine games since his recall from Triple-A, including a 3-HR game. Power like that is usually not sitting on the waiver wire and for those hoping to move up in HR, it is a gamble worth taking that he can hit a few more the rest of the month. Young had 32 HR in 2007.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Wade Davis (24%) – By now everyone is aware of Davis’ major league debut, when he allowed just three hits and one run in seven innings and struck out nine batters. He reached 94 on the radar gun and averaged 92.2 in his first start for Tampa Bay. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Davis was 14-10 with 195 strikeouts in 211.2 IP.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Chris Getz (17%) – Back from a strained right oblique, Getz is batting .333 with 4 SB in seven games after being out for nearly three weeks. The average probably will not be that good for the rest of the year but Getz does bring speed to the table. If you are looking for steals down the stretch, he can be a valuable addition.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Tim Redding (3%) – In his last three games, all against teams in the playoff hunt, Redding is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 15 SO in 18.1 IP. He spent a good deal of time this year in the bullpen but Redding should be in the rotation for the rest of the season. He is not as glamorous as a hot rookie like Davis, but he throws strikes and has a chance to pick up a few wins down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Alberto Callaspo (49%) – A second baseman with a good AVG and decent R totals, Callaspo is a starting quality player. Recently he has been on a hot streak with RBIs, too. In his last 15 games, Callaspo has .302-1-10-5-1 line, with eight of those RBIs coming in the past five games.

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.

As the season draws to a close, keeper decisions come to the forefront. After a terrible July (6.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and a mediocre August (4.58 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), owners are probably wondering which way Jered Weaver’s career is going. Is he still on his way up? Is there un-tapped potential here, or is he what he is – a pretty good pitcher with established flaws?

Unfortunately for Weaver, the numbers seem to say that we’ve already seen his best. Though he’s only turning 27 this year, the statistics have been remarkably steady. With over a hundred major league starts under his belt, we’ve also gathered enough information to render a decently-informed decision, too.

Weaver did strike out close to ten per nine in many of his minor league stops, but he’s settled in at around 7.7 K/9 in the major leagues. In fact, in three of his four years, he’s been within .05 K/9 of that number, so consistency actually seems to be a part of the package, too. That strikeout rate is decent and surprisingly puts him at 26th in the major leagues in that category. It’s not a flashy strikeout-leader kind of rate, but it can work for him like it’s worked for Adam Wainwright, who is a good comp in terms of walks and strikeouts (albeit in the weaker league).

Weaver’s low walk rate makes his above-average strikeout rate play better. His first two years, he had a 2.5 BB/9 that would rank in the top 30 of qualified starters. Unfortunately, his control has slid a little and is inching up on three walks per nine over the last two seasons. That has to qualify as a slight concern, because as the strikeouts and walk rates start converging, his effectiveness will decline.

The established flaw in his game may not sound so terrible at first. Weaver is a fly-ball pitcher and is could become more of one as he ages (it’s also the main reason that he doesn’t comp well with Wainwright overall). He debuted with a fly-ball rate over 50%, then improved that number for two years, and is back over 50% again this year. Of course all fly balls are not created equally. Weaver is fourth in the league in infield fly balls, and steadily coaxes between 11 and 14% of his batted balls into the air on the infield.

Those infield fly balls help his home run per fly ball rate (around 8% year-in and year-out) stay under the major league average (10%), and they help mitigate the fact that batters like to put his pitches in the air. Being a fly-ball pitcher is fundamentally weaker than being a ground-ball pitcher, if only because less than 1% of all ground balls end up being home runs. Weaver’s home run rate (1.10 this year) is creeping up, and that stat will only get worse as he ages.

The whole package is obviously effective (he’s been worth over $50 million to the Angels in his four seasons), but the fly ball rate, home run rate, and medium-paced fastball (89 MPH) all stand on the wrong side of the ledger. The four positive pitches (by linear weights), good strikeout and walk rates stand on the positive side and give reason for consistently rosy projections and hope for better work in the future.

However, Weaver seems to have found his particular balance between his strengths and faults. This is who he is, and though he may have an outlier season in him, this is who will be until age gets to him. Age, of course, is always a finger on the negative side of the scale.

Here is the latest update to Week 23 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Burnett
TAM – Price
STL – Smoltz
WAS – Lannan
TEX – McCarthy
PIT – McCutchen
CIN – Maloney
KC – Chen

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

KC – Bannister
TEX – Nippert
WAS – Mock
TAM – Sonnanstine
CIN – Lehr
NYM – Misch

Burnett was 10-4 at the end of July but since then has gone 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a 1.594 WHIP in seven games. He has allowed six HR in his last three games, two of which were on the road. Burnett has two home starts this week, including a game against the Rays, who are third in the league in homers.

Price has gotten a decision in 13 of his last 14 starts and has gone 6-7 in that span. Five of his six wins have been Quality Starts and he has not allowed more than two runs in those six games. But in the seven losses Price has allowed 33 runs and has just one Quality Start. He has a huge home/road split, with a 6-3 record and a 3.32 ERA at Tropicana Field, compared to a 6.81 road ERA. Price has road games this week at New York and at Boston.

Smoltz has made three starts for the Cardinals and has 1 BB and 21 SO in 17 IP. And while he allowed 8 HR in 40 IP in the American League, Smoltz has surrendered just 1 HR in the National League. His first start this week is against the Brewers, the team that scored four runs in six innings against him, three on a HR by Casey McGehee.

Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last 11 games. Prior to that, he had won four straight decisions after altering his pitching style to reduce strikeouts and pitch to contact. In the last 11 games, Lannan has a 24/21 SO/BB ratio and has only topped three strikeouts in a game once, when he notched 6 Ks in a win against the Marlins.

McCarthy has made one start since being activated from the disabled list, where he spent nearly three months recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. For the year, McCarthy has an average fastball velocity of 89.2 percent but in his first outing back, he averaged 86.6 and maxed out at 88.4, yet still picked up his sixth win of the season. McCarthy has a 5.91 road ERA this season and has one home and one road game this week.

McCutchen won his major league debut last week against the Reds and notched a Quality Start, going 6 IP with 3 ER. Acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, McCutchen throws in the low 90s and if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a chance. Last year in Triple-A, McCutchen allowed 22 HR in 118.1 IP and went 7-9. This year in Triple-A, he allowed 10 HR in 142.2 IP and went 13-6. McCutchen allowed a leadoff homer to Drew Stubbs in his major league debut.

Maloney has made four starts in the majors and given up two homers in each of them. He has a 0.53 GB/FB ratio and a 20 percent HR/FB mark. Maloney has road starts this week at Colorado and at Chicago. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki have combined to hit 17 HR versus LHP this year, although no one on the Cubs has more than 4 HR versus southpaws.

Chen is likely to remain in the rotation with injuries to Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a 6.87 K/9 mark but that is the only thing Chen has going for him fantasy-wise. Both his ERA and FIP are over 5.00 and his WHIP checks in at 1.49. Like Maloney, he is a flyball pitcher (0.57 GB/FB) and he has a 1.64 HR/9 mark. Since notching 13 W with the Orioles in 2005, Chen has just one victory in the majors since, although it did come this season.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton began August with a rough stretch of appearances (4 runs, 3 HR in 5 IP from the 5th to the 15th), but the big righty has allowed just 1 run in 11.2 IP since. Jon’s fastball velocity for the season sits at 97.7 MPH. In each season in the big leagues Big Jon has increased the zip on his heater (he threw “only” 94.4 MPH in ’04, 95 in ’06, 95.2 in ’07 and 96.3 in ’08). As if that pitch weren’t enough to contend with (+1.14 runs/100 pitches thrown in 2009), Broxton’s high-80’s slider is even nastier (+3.78).

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath collected four saves this past week, whiffing 6, walking zero and allowing 0 runs in the process. In 56 frames this season, Bell has posted a career-best 10.13 K/9, with 2.89 BB/9. Both his 94 MPH cheese (+2.25 runs/100) and low-80’s breaking stuff (+1.24 for the slider, +0.96 for the curve; some of these pitches could be mixed but you get the point) are working exceptionally well.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has not pitched since Sept. 1, as he is battling a bout of biceps tendinitis. The injury isn’t expected to keep the resurgent Rockie out for too long, but lefty Franklin Morales is filling the role in the meantime.

The 23 year-old Venezuelan was a highly-touted starting pitching prospect by virtue of his low-90’s heat and slow, sharp-breaking curveball. Those gifts helped Morales punch out a batter per inning in the minors. However, herky-jerky mechanics and a subsequent lack of control (5.2 BB/9 in the minors) have led some to question his ability to be efficient and face lineups multiple times.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman was awesome in August, with an 11/1 K/BB and 2 runs allowed in 11 IP. He has also started off September with a bang, striking out the side versus the Cardinals on the 3rd. Hell’s Bells hasn’t been as dominant as the 1.71 ERA would suggest (his BABIP is a little low at .269, and his HR/FB% is a microscopic 2.1%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, derived from a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) is more solid than spectacular at 3.63.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Saves have been few and far between for K-Rod (three in July, five in August), though he did notch one against the Cubs yesterday. Any way you want to cut it, Rodriguez is in the midst of his worst season in the majors. His K rate (9.4 per nine innings) is a career-worst, as is his 4.92 BB/9 mark. After compiling Win Probability Added totals ranging from 3.09 to 4.98 between 2004 and 2008, K-Rod has a 0.87 WPA in ’09. I have shown these figures before, but they really do illustrate the gradual downward slope in Rodriguez’s performance:

XFIP, by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.21

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano scuffled in early August (5 runs and 2 homers allowed in 5 IP from Aug. 1st to the 15th), but he has since allowed 2 runs in his past eight frames. However, those two runs have come in his past two appearances. Soriano allowed a runner to cross the plate vs. Florida on Aug. 31st (non-save op), then served up a tater to Dan Uggla the next night (he still got the save). Rafael will turn 30 this off-season, and he makes for a very interesting free agent case. He’s obviously electric when healthy (12.39 K/9 in 2009), but he missed practically the entire 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons with injuries. Soriano is basically the relief equivalent of Rich Harden.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up two saves in three appearances this week, striking out two and walking one. The 26 year-old has punched out a career-best 10.09 batters per nine frames, while lowering his walk rate from 4.04 per nine in 2008 to 3.55 this season. Wilson’s XFIP is a quality 3.31 in 2009. He’s more than just a hard-throwing, mo-hawked curiousity: he’s a worthy fantasy option.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has yet to make an appearance in September. He ended August with a pair of scoreless, 2-K outings (vs. Arizona on the 30th and a save op against the Cubs on the 31st). Papa Grande has posted rates of 10.47 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9 in his walk year, while getting opposing batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 31.5 percent of the time.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Close to inking a two-year contract extension with the Red Birds, the 36 year-old Franklin did not surrender a single run in 11 IP during the month of August. Continuing the tight-rope act that has come to define his 2009 season, Franklin evaded danger. He struck out just four batters, while not displaying his typically strong control either (six walks).

Financial terms don’t seem to be available yet for Franklin’s extension, but hopefully the Cardinals aren’t paying him as though he has experienced some massive breakout in 2009. His BABIP is .230, his strand rate is near 90 percent, and his HR/FB% is just 3.5%; all of those things scream “regression to the mean.” Ryan’s ERA is 1.37, while his XFIP is nearly three runs higher at 4.28

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero’s control has been MIA, as he has issued six free passes in his past 5.2 IP. Francisco’s peripherals this season (7.67 K/9, 4.15 BB/9) don’t really jive with his 2.24 ERA (his XFIP is 4.10). Opposing batters aren’t chasing Cordero’s stuff as much (his O-Swing% has dipped from a career-best 36.4% in 2007 to a league-average 25.5% in 2009), and he’s not doing a great job in terms of getting ahead in the count (57.1 first-pitch strike%, 58.2% MLB avg).

Matt Capps, Pirates

With the Buccos adrift for a seventeenth straight season (sigh), Capps has done precious little in recent days. Pittsburgh has lost eight straight ball games, and Capps has pitched just once this week (a scoreless inning vs. Cincy on the 1st; sorry, no save). A flyball hurler (career 35.8 GB%), Capps has experienced all sorts of issues with the long ball this year (1.62 HR/9). He hasn’t been particularly unlucky in terms of the percentage of flyballs becoming round-trippers (12.7 HR/FB%). A .376 BABIP has most assuredly contributed to his six-plus ERA (6.09), but his XFIP (4.60) isn’t exactly the stuff relief aces are made of.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Baby steps: since his last disaster piece (3 runs, including a HR, allowed without retiring a batter vs. Pittsburgh on Aug. 25th), Lidge has collected three saves in three scoreless appearances. If you’re looking for a silver lining in a bitterly disappointing campaign, Lidge has issued just one walk in his past 6.1 frames. The overall numbers, obviously, are still poor (4.75 XFIP, with the worst WPA among relievers).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol continues to cause plenty of indigestion around Wrigleyville, oscillating between dominant and downright unable to find the strike zone. The slider-centric reliever picked up three saves this past week, striking out five and walking two in 3 scoreless innings. Marmol’s walk rate this season (8.23 BB/9) is truly astonishing. As one might expect, he’s often falling behind the hitter (50.9 first-pitch strike%). From there, it’s a matter of whether Marmol can tame his biting 83 MPH breaking ball.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Is it time to just label Nunez as Florida’s ninth-inning option? The string-bean right-hander has logged every save op for the Fish for a considerable time now. In 59.1 innings this season, Nunez has posted rates of 8.19 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9, with a 4.20 XFIP.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, seemed to enter the Twilight Zone in August. The high-octane, control-challenged reliever surrendered five runs in 11 innings, but it’s how he did it that’s bizarre. Lindstrom punched out just six hitters, while not walking a single batter (he has chucked 2.2 walk-less innings in September as well).

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Get better, Chad: Qualls’ 2009 season came to an abrupt, painful end when he dislocated his left kneecap on the last out of Arizona’s Sunday tilt with the Astros. Qualls is expected to undergo surgery, though he’s supposed to be ready for the start of the 2010 season.

With Qualls on the mend, the D-Backs will hand the ball to righty Juan Gutierrez. The 26 year-old was actually acquired in the same swap that brought Qualls to the desert (along with Chris Burke) in exchange for Jose Valverde in December of 2007. Gutierrez totes mid-90’s heat, though an 83 MPH slider has been his most effective offering (-0.32 runs/100 for the fastball, +4.34 for the slider). In 80.2 major league innings, the Venezuelan has punched out 7.92 batters per nine innings, with 3.68 BB/9.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal turned in a very nice month of August (14 IP, 10/4 K/BB, 5 H, 0 R). But before you get too excited, consider that August was also the first time that the former Royal and White Sock struck out more batters than he walked in 2009. To start September, Mac allowed a run and two walks vs. San Diego on the 2nd and then pitched a scoreless frame against the Marlins yesterday (2 K, 1 BB). Hitters facing MacDougal know that they’re going to get something hard: he’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball nearly 88 percent of the time, while mixing in the occasional mid-80’s slider.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo is on yet another tear, having tossed 6.2 scoreless innings since he gave up a dinger on Aug. 11th (6 K, 2 BB, 2 H). Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at 6.78, with a 3.47 Win Probability Added that places second among all relievers. The all-time great is locating far fewer pitches within the strike zone this season (44%, 49% MLB avg). However, opposing batters are going after those outside offerings frequently (34.8 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Mr. Rivera is second in WPA. Who’s the leader, you ask? That would be Papelbon. His WPA sits at 4.48, and the 28 year-old has hit the mark far more often lately (6.2 IP, 12/1 K/BB ratio since August 24th). Not surprisingly, Papelbon’s return to dominance begins with that blistering mid-90’s fastball:

Papelbon’s Runs/100 with his fastball, by month:

April: +0.64
May: +0.90
June: -0.04
July: +3.04
August: +1.02

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has been so thoroughly dominant for such a long period of time that his pitching line from Sept. 2nd against the Pale Hose (2 H, 4 R, 2 HR) requires a spit-take. The typically iron-fisted stopper has endured a rough patch lately (11.2 IP, 12 H, 7 R 18/8 K/BB from Aug. to Sept). Nathan’s velocity held steady during that rocky month-plus of pitching, and even with a sour August and beginning of September, his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) is 3.07.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim ended August poorly (0.2 IP, 3 R and a HR allowed on the 24th vs. Cleveland), but he enjoyed an extended vacation and returned with a quality two-inning appearance vs. Oakland on the 1st (4 K, though he did walk two). The two-out saves have become a common occurrence for Soria, a happy development given the Mexicutioner’s deep arsenal and background as a starter. In a 2009 season shortened by shoulder problems, Soria has punched out 11.32 per nine innings, with 2.83 BB/9. He’s getting ahead of hitters or inducing first-pitch contact often, with a first-pitch strike% of 65.9 (58.2 MLB avg).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

A quick look at Jenks’ line would lead one to believe that he has been much worse in 2009 than in 2008. After all, his ERA is over a full tick higher (2.63 in ’08, 3.66 in ’09). However, Bobby’s K/BB ratio has spiked from 2.24 to 3.38. He’s throwing harder (95 MPH in ’09, 93.8 in ’08), and opposing hitters aren’t making as much contact against his stuff (78.4% contact rate in ’09, 84.5% in ’08). Jenks’ XFIP is 3.66, which is actually lower than his ’08 mark (3.86). The root cause of his ’09 struggles is a ballooning HR/FB rate (15.6%). Bobby’s career HR/FB rate is 9.1, and the average for a pitcher tends to hover around 11-12%. Jenks could be a bargain on draft day next year. He’s still the same guy.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Oakland’s rookie closer has not issued a free pass since July 25th, a stretch of 14 innings in which he has whiffed 10 and allowed 2 runs. Bailey’s first-pitch strike% shot up to 66.7% in August, well above his 60.1% season average. In 72 frames in ’09, Bailey has posted rates of 9.5 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. The sub-two ERA (1.88) has something to do with a sub-.240 BABIP (.239), but he has been legitimately excellent. Be it Bailey’s searing 94 MPH fastball (+2.04 runs/100 pitches), 89 MPH cutter (+1.59) or 78 MPH curveball (+2.71), hitters just aren’t getting good hacks against his stuff.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, wild man Aardsma is working on a walk less streak of his own. The relief nomad has found a home in Seattle, and he hasn’t allowed a batter to take ball four in his past seven frames (8 K, 0 R). Picked up from the Red Sox for A-Ball lefty Fabian Williamson before the season, Aardsma has been worth 1.8 WAR in 2009.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. gave up five H.R.’s in August, walking 9 hitters and surrendering 7 runs in 12 IP. He has begun August with 1.1 scoreless innings over two appearances. Bumpy August aside, Howell has compiled rates of 10.57 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 on the whole, with a 3.39 XFIP. Even the best relief arms go through stretches of bad pitching; don’t jump ship based on a few flammable outings.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes ended August with four clean save ops, but September began with a 2 hit, 2 walk appearance against the M’s on the 2nd. Fuentes’ WPA is 0.84 in 2009, compared to 2.21 in 2008. His mid-70’s breaking ball hasn’t been sharp in his first year with the Angels (-0.69 runs/100), which could help to explain the uptick in his contact rate (79.1% in ’09, 73.3% career average).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco has racked up three saves already this month, closing the door in both ends of a double-dip with the Blue Jays on the 1st and notching another vs. Toronto the next night. Frank has turned in a banner campaign between a trio of DL stints, with a 4.18 K/BB ratio. His mid-80’s splitter has often been smacked during the course of his career (-0.52 runs/100), but that split has been superb in 2009 (+2.92). Consequently, Francisco has relied upon the tumbling pitch more often (nearly 20% of his pitches thrown, compared to about 10% in years past).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Save opportunities have been few and far between for the scuffling Jays (8 losses in their past 10 games). Downs was activated from the DL on Aug. 24th, and has since chucked 3.2 scoreless frames (3 K, 2 BB). Frasor, meanwhile, was pummeled by the Bronx Bombers yesterday, with A-Rod and Posada taking him deep.

Both undersized relievers have employed similar tactics to post career-low walk rates (2.91 BB/9 for Frasor, 2.77 for Downs). Neither is pounding the strike zone (49.9 Zone% for Frasor and just 43.3% for Downs; 49% MLB average). Rather, they’re both getting more outside swings than usual (Frasor’s league-average 25.1% mark is well above his 18.9% career average, and Downs’ 34.1% figure in ’09 is leaps and bounds ahead of his 22.6% career mark).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando Rodney, $10 million per year reliever? It would be incredibly difficult to justify such a lavish payday for the 32 year-old. Rodney has posted 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 2009, with 0.9 Wins Above Replacement (and that’s his highest WAR total dating back to 2002). If 1 WAR is worth around $4.5 million on the free agent market, then a team properly evaluating Fernando shouldn’t be offering any more than half of that purported sum. His save total (31 and counting) is shiny, but it’s hard to label him as a top-tier reliever.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got jacked up during his last appearance: a 3 hit, 5 run disaster vs. the Yankees on Sept. 2 (he didn’t retire a batter). There’s nothing really special about the 6-5 righty, who has whiffed 6.4 batters per nine frames while walking 2.97 and posting a 51.4% GB rate. His FIP is 4.26. He’s not a bad middle reliever, but he’s appearing in the ninth because, well, someone has to.

Other potential candidates for the role haven’t stepped forward, though I wouldn’t totally discount Chris Ray just yet. Sure, his ERA (6.75) is abominable. But the underlying number’s aren’t so bad: 8.15 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. The flyball-centric Ray does, however, have plenty of issues with the long ball (1.3 HR/9 career).

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

On the whole, Wood’s first season outside of the Friendly Confines has not gone especially well. The 32 year-old Texas has a 4.05 XFIP, with the opposition offering at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average; Wood’s O-Swing% in ’08 was 31.3).

Kerry is now dealing with a bout of shoulder soreness, and trade acquisition Chris Perez (a former Miami Hurricane righty who pumps mid 90’s gas with a sharp slider) is making a strong case for ninth-inning consideration in 2010. Perez (picked up from the Cardinals in the DeRosa deal) has always fooled plenty of hitters, but he has gone on an absolute tear with the Indians while displaying improved control. The 24 year-old owns a 23/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP with the Tribe.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Homer Bailey – The overall numbers this year are underwhelming for Bailey but in his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 19 Ks in 21.1 IP. He is consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and can dial it up to 98. The gopher ball is still a problem, he gave up two in his last start, and he does have a road start this week in Coors. Still, I like him this week as a two-start pitcher.

Garrett Mock – In the last 24 games of August, the Nationals were 8-16. In that same time span, Mock was 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 32 SO in 28.2 IP. Walks have been a problem for Mock, but his FIP is still nearly a run lower than his ERA. Get him into your lineup this week, even with a tough matchup against the Phillies.

Clayton Richard – Fantasy owners have really been hesitant to pick up Richard since his move to the NL, despite a 4-1 record with the Padres. He is 3-0 at home and gets one of his two starts this week at Petco. Since his road start is at San Francisco, I think he is a good two-start pitcher this week.

Ricky Romero – It has been a very successful rookie season for Romero, but the lefty has been hitting the wall lately. In his last six starts, Romero is 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. He catches a break by not going up against any AL East teams this week, still I think it is good to give him a break and not suffer two starts equal to what he has posted recently.

Andy Sonnanstine – One year after pitching in the World Series, it has been a disappointing season for Sonnanstine. He was unimpressive in the beginning of the season and was sent back to the minors. Sonnanstine posted a 4.40 ERA in nine games at Triple-A Durham and then made it back to Tampa Bay after the Kazmir deal. And his first start back was more of the same as he fell to 6-8. This week he has road starts at the New York and at Boston. Keep him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Vazquez, Jimenez, Beckett, Happ, Lilly, Marquis, Kazmir, E. Santana, Garza, Scherzer, Buehrle, P. Martinez, Buchholz, Porcello, Penny, Richmond, Correia, Duensing, Bannister, Nippert, Lehr, Davies, Bush, Moehler, VandenHurk, Redding, Manship, Misch, Paulino.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 21 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 1.88 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. W, 5.54 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Millwood – Advised to sit. W, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.71 WHIP (2)
Niemann – Advised to sit. W, 4.72 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Rowland-Smith – Advised to start. 3.14 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2)

Three day games have already gotten underway and there are seven more contests on deck. Let’s get to some fantasy links as the season marches on…

Dustin Hockensmith of Imaginary Diamond lists 10 young players who could prove to be fantasy sleepers in 2010. As Hockensmith notes, “Some of these guys — Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Hanson, Neftali Feliz and Rick Porcello — are making an impact right now.”

The boys over at Fake Teams work through a discussion-inducing question: “Who would you rather have, Justin Upton or Matt Kemp?” Both have shot up in fantasy value this season and will be taken among the top tier of outfielders in drafts next season.

Not ready to begin thinking about 2010? Fantasy Baseball Junkie has you covered with a look at “vulture win opportunities” for the month of September. The blog post suggests adding guys like Jamie Moyer and Alfredo Aceves, who leach off starters like Pedro Martinez and Joba Chamberlain, respectively, for wins. The strategy may come off as odd, but it does make some sense.

With Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera and Huston Street hitting the bench recently with injuries, there are an awful lot of saves up for grabs. Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse runs us around some of those situations.

Troy Patterson of Roto Savants previews Buster Posey’s September fantasy value. For those who didn’t catch the news, the elite prospect was called up to the majors on Wednesday to aid the Giants in their push toward the playoffs. Bengie Molina is hurting and reportedly disgruntled, so there may be some playing time available.

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup spins us around the league with a group of recommended waiver adds. Brian Joura handles that duty wonderfully for RotoGraphs, but it’s always nice to have multiple perspectives.

Have a link, comment, question or fantasy blog you think I should be reading? Send me an e-mail and tell me about it. Or find me on Twitter.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

With the MLB rosters expanding from the standard 25 men to as many as 40 players, we’re switching things up this week and taking a look at some of the more interesting prospects making their MLB debuts.

Buster Posey: There was some talk that San Francisco would delay Posey’s promotion to the Majors in an effort to save some money, but the organization did the right thing and brought him up for a taste of the Majors. Posey has proven that his bat and glove are MLB ready. In a perfect world (keeping in mind their GM loves veterans), Posey would spend 2010 seeing 60-70% of the playing time behind the dish with San Francisco. A veteran catcher – Bengie Molina if he’s up to the decreased role – would then see the remainder of the playing time while serving as a mentor to the rookie backstop. There isn’t much that Posey cannot do with the bat; he hits for power (.200 ISO), for average (.310 at AAA) and takes his fair share of walks (11.9% in AAA). Overall, the 22-year-old prospect hit .325/.416/.531 in 422 at-bats at high-A and triple-A.

Tyler Flowers: Flowers cannot match Posey’s overall game but this White Sox prospect could make veteran A.J. Pierzynski expendable after the 2010 season – if not before. Flowers might struggle to hit for a high average because he has trouble making contact sometimes (30.5 K%), but he posted a .246 ISO in 248 double-A at-bats before moving up to triple-A. Flowers, an average backstop, also takes a ton of walks, having posted a 19.2% walk rate in 2008 and a rate of 18.7% in double-A in ’09. Flowers has been a lefty killer in his minor-league career and hit .358 against them this year with an OPS of 1.119.

Wade Davis: With the trade of Scott Kazmir, the Rays acquired a few interesting young names, while also opening up a rotation spot for either Andy Sonnanstine or Davis. The right-handed rookie has been a top prospect in the system for a few years now but his numbers were just good in triple-A… as opposed to great. Now 24, Davis allowed 139 hits in 158.2 innings of work at triple-A in 2009, while posting a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.86 K/9. He is the early favorite to replace Kazmir in the 2010 starting rotation, although Sonnanstine has the experience edge.

Michael Brantley: Obtained as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal last year, this outfielder is not a slam-dunk star but he has more than enough talent to be a valuable contributor to the Indians and your fantasy squad. Brantley understands his game very well for a 22 year old. The left-handed hitter had a bit of a down year in triple-A this season but he still walked more than he struck out (1.23 BB/K) and he posted an 11.4 BB%. He stole a career high 43 bases in 48 attempts but hit just .267 (.288 BABIP). At worst, he should be a very valuable fourth outfielder and pinch runner.

Josh Thole: Another catcher, Thole was converted from first base to catcher and has really improved his value to the point where he is one of the brighter up-and-coming backstop prospects. A left-handed hitter, Thole has hit .300+ in each of the past two seasons, including .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats in double-A this year. He’ll need to keep that average up because he has almost no power to speak of, as witnessed by his .094 ISO.

Neil Walker: Walker’s star has diminished significantly from the days when he was the top prospect in the Pirates system. He’s struggled in triple-A for two straight seasons and is currently sandwiched in between Andy LaRoche and Pedro Alvarez. Walker could end up as a AAAA slugger, or a bench player, which is a far cry from the days that the Pittsburgh native was the club’s No. 1 draft pick out of high school. This year he hit just .266/.312/.484 with 14 homers in 353 at-bats. The .218 ISO is nice, but the 6.6% walk rate is not.

As keeper league decisions loom, many fantasy managers are looking at certain struggling young stars and wondering where all the buzz went. No young star has had a more tortured young history then B.J. Upton (né Melvin Emanuel Bossman Junior Upton). What can we expect from a young man that has shown flashes of great potential and long stretches of mediocrity? Does he, in the Ron Shandler vein, “own” the power and the speed because he’s shown both in the past? Or will he be more one-dimensional as his career evens out?

His power has oscillated incredibly. Here are his full year slugging percentages, starting with his first year in the minor leagues: .431 (’03 minors), .505 (’04 minors), .490 (’05 minors), .394 (06 minors), .291 (’06 majors), .508 (’07 majors), .401 (’08 majors), .364 (’09 majors). Quite the dilemma. It’s tempting to call 2007 his fluke year, but then there’s the question of the 2008 playoffs, and his 2004-2005 run in the minor leagues. He has shown good power multiple times in the past.

Examining 2007 further, we find that he had a HR/FB number that year (19.8%) that was way out of line with his career percentage (10.4%). This year, despite a career high in fly ball percentage (41.4%, well above his 34.7% career percentage), he’s sporting his second-lowest slugging percentage and has only muscled nine balls out of the yard despite being healthy for a good part of the year.

An obvious flaw in the older Upton’s game is his ability to hit line drives. His career line drive percentage is poor (17.5%), and this year’s number is third-worst among qualifiers this year. In 2007, he owned a career-high in that category (19.8%), and looking over his minor league career, we can see that the low line-drive rate is a definite part of his game.

What we are left with is a player that has some exciting tools (speed, and the ability to get on base (11.6% walk rate career)) and some real flaws (low line drive rate, high strikeout rate (28.2% career)). This gives us a player that despite a good BABIP (.348 career, most probably built on his speed) has a poor batting average (.266 career).

Looking for a comparable player is not easy, but one name comes to mind. Hunter Pence is a year older, and his power has not varied as greatly as Upton’s. Pence does also package a low line drive percentage (15.8% career) with good speed (5.2 speed score, .325 BABIP) and some power. On the other hand, his HR/FB stayed steady throughout his short career at a higher level than Upton’s has. What we can learn from Pence, possibly, is that Upton’s ceiling may not be defined by his best year. 2007 was a great year for both players, and both players will probably never again show the pristine batting averages they sported that year.

As for the Bossman’s power, we are left guessing. It’s never a good sign when a player has such extreme power spikes. Consider that he had more home runs in 2007 (24) than he’s had in the other 1,548 non-2007 plate appearances (23). Power is his shakiest tool, and depending on it returning in the future is not recommended.