Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Desmond Jennings: When a left shoulder injury wiped out most of Jennings’ 2007 season, it stood to reason that the talented outfielder’s timetable would get pushed back. However, no one told Jennings. The 22-year-old picked up right where he left off in 2007. In fact, his two triple-slash lines are almost eerily similar to this point:

.315/.401/.465 (in 387 at-bats at high-A in 2007)
.316/.395/.486 (in 383 at-bats at double-A in 2009)

Even Jennings’ walk rates and strikeout rates are similar. His wOBA, though, has improved from .399 to .415. With 100 games under his belt in double-A, Rays management recently promoted Jennings to triple-A. In four games, he’s hitting .250 with a double, four Ks and a couple of stolen bases. Defensively, the center fielder has good range and an average arm. He may get a taste of the Majors this September and Jennings should be ready to contribute on a regular basis by mid-2010. That would give the Rays an incredibly athletic outfield with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton already on hand.

Jose Tabata: Like Jennings, this former Yankees’ prospect has also benefited from a recent promotion to triple-A. Tabata battled injuries (and the tabloids, thanks to his wife) early on in the season before establishing himself at double-A with a line of .303/.370/.404 with two homers and seven steals (in 13 attempts) in 228 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has yet to show the power expected of him but he’s hitting for average and controlling the strike zone well (11 K%). At only 20 years of age, Tabata has time to learn to drive the ball over the fences with more regularity. Defensively, he is a good center fielder, but he won’t move Andrew McCutchen out of position in Pittsburgh. As a result, Tabata will probably end up in right field, thanks to his strong arm. When that happens, though, his lack of power will become even more evident.

Ian Desmond: We’ve been hearing hype on Desmond for a while now but the slick fielder is just beginning to justify that talk with his performance at the plate. After struggling to hit for average early in his career, the 23-year-old prospect his .306/.372/.494 with six homers and 13 steals in 170 at-bats in double-A. Desmond still needs to show a little more patience at the plate with a walk rate of just 8.6 BB%. Another word of warning: Desmond’s BABIP is much higher this season over his career norm. In two previous stints in double-A, his BABIPs were .256 and .296. This year it was .371. His offensive showing in double-A was good enough to get him promoted to triple-A where he is currently hitting .298/.420/.351 through 18 games. With the club having given a two-year extension through 2010 to incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman, it buys Desmond a little more time to hone his batting skills in triple-A next year. However, an injury to Guzman (or perhaps a trade to free up his $8 million salary) could get Desmond to Washington by the end of July next year.

Jason Castro: The Astros organization has slowly been benefiting from its minor league system over the past few seasons and it has enjoyed contributions from players such as Hunter Pence and Bud Norris. Catcher Jason Castro – the club’s 2008 first-round pick – should be the next significant contributor after surpassing J.R. Towles as the club’s backstop of the future. Castro, 22, began the 2009 season in high-A and hit .309/.399/.517 with seven homers in 207 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then moved up to double-A where he is currently hitting .304/.358/.405 with two homers in 148 at-bats. His power numbers were probably exaggerated a bit in high-A ball due to the fact he was playing in Lancaster (one of the best offensive parks in minor league ball) and his ISO has dropped from .208 in high-A to .101 in double-A. Regardless, he’s still an above-average offensive catcher who has really improved defensively behind the dish.

Jake Arrieta: With fellow pitching prospects Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman having recently arrived in the Majors, Arrieta is now waiting for his shot in Baltimore. The right-hander’s ceiling is not quite as high as the other two pitchers but he should slide into the No. 3 spot in the rotation very nicely. Arrieta, 23, began the year in double-A where he allowed 45 hits in 59 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.51 BB/9 and 10.68 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Arrieta has struggled a bit with 56 hits allowed in 51.2 innings. He’s posted a walk rate of 3.14 and a strikeout rate of 8.54 K/9. The right-hander has also allowed almost twice as many home runs but in eight fewer innings. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a slider and a changeup.

Andrew Cashner: After having success in the bullpen in college, Cashner rose into the first round of the draft in 2008, which is where the Cubs organization nabbed him. He was moved into the starting rotation in pro ball to get more innings under his belt and he may end up sticking as a starter. Cashner began the year in high-A where he allowed 31 hits in 42 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.29 K/9. With a promotion to double-A, the right-hander has allowed just 14 hits in 24.2 innings. His rates have remained almost exactly the same. He’s also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just one homer allowed on the year. The Cubs rotation does not look as formidable as it once did so Cashner could help out sooner rather than later. With any luck, though, the organization will avoid bouncing him back and forth between the rotation and the ‘pen, which it did with Jeff Samardzija (with limited success). Cashner’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph (more often out of the ‘pen), a plus slider, and a changeup.

Tuesday night in Detroit offered two different pitchers on two teams on opposite ends of the success cycle. It was an intriguing matchup for baseball fans and a game that had relevancy for fantasy owners, too.

The Tigers, who came into the contest with a two-game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central, started Jarrod Washburn, a trade deadline acquisition from the Mariners. Washburn, a veteran lefty, is enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career. His 2.64 ERA was the lowest mark of his 12-year career, one that he posted thanks to a career-best 1.068 WHIP.

The Orioles, languishing in last place and under .500 for the 12th consecutive season since cutting ties with Davey Johnson, started Brian Matusz, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2008, who was making his major league debut. While Washburn has one of the slowest average fastball velocities in the majors, Matusz came in with a reputation as a fireballer, a pitcher capable of reaching the mid-90s with his fastball.

Both pitchers seemed to be the right choice for their clubs. Detroit, in the thick of a pennant race, needed a reliable veteran to come in and help stabilize its pitching staff. Baltimore, going nowhere in the AL East, needed to find out about its hot-shot youngster, one who dominated two levels of the minors this season.

But should fantasy owners treat these pitchers the same way that major league clubs did? Should the contender always go with Washburn, while the teams bringing up the rear just focus on the upside potential of the rookie?

A look at the raw stats of Washburn would intrigue any fantasy owner. He came into Tuesday with 8 W, 2.64 ERA, 1.068 WHIP and 79 Ks. But a deeper look into his numbers revealed a pitcher exceeding expectations. Washburn had a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate while with the Mariners. His FIP checked in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his ERA and his xFIP would have been even worse due to his below average HR/FB rate.

To make matters worse, Washburn was moving from a pitcher’s park in Safeco Field to a more hitter-friendly home stadium in Comerica Park. When it first opened, Comerica had a reputation as a good pitcher’s park. However in recent years it has played differently. Baseball-Reference.com gave it a a multi-year factor of 102 (97 for Safeco) and StatCorner gave it a 97.3 for runs (95.1 for Safeco).

Lifetime, Washburn had a 3.91 ERA at Safeco (66 starts) compared to a 5.33 ERA (eight starts) at Comerica. This year was no different, as Washburn was 5- 2 with a 2.31 ERA in Safeco. His numbers in Detroit can be dismissed somewhat as a sample size issue but there is no question that his numbers in Seattle were slightly better than his career ERA of 4.04. In his eight seasons with the Angels, Washburn had an overall ERA of 3.93 but his lifetime ERA in Anaheim is 4.60, suggesting that Washburn was not able to simply take advantage of his home park.

The first outing for our two pitchers with their new clubs was not a good omen for Washburn owners. He allowed six runs in 5.1 innings, including two homers, in his first home start for the Tigers. Meanwhile, Matusz was everything for which owners could have hoped. He struck out five batters in five innings, allowed just one run and picked up the win.

PitchFX showed that Matusz averaged 92.07 with his four-seam fastball and had a max velocity of 93.8 on his 52 offerings. He threw 16 change-ups, with an average speed of almost 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball. Matusz also displayed a slider, curve and two-seam fastball. And most impressively, Matsuz threw strikes with each of his pitches, with only 34 balls in 99 pitches. All five of his pitches Matusz had a strike percentage of 50 percent or greater.

It is always dangerous to read too much into one outing. But Tuesday night fantasy owners saw just what a look at the scouting reports and numbers said about each of these pitchers. The scouting reports said Matusz could bring the heat and he did exactly that. And a look at Washburn’s numbers showed a pitcher succeeding to a large degree by luck (BABIP, LOB%) and circumstances (Safeco).

While the Tigers acquired Washburn for their pennant drive, fantasy owners contending for a money spot in their league should do the exact opposite. And while it is a risky move to have a rookie pitcher in your rotation in August and September, contenders might want to consider starting Matusz on a matchup basis as they drive towards a title.

The Arizona Diamondbacks apparently know how to clean out their veterans in order to take a look at the future. Or maybe things just fell that way. In any case, whether by injury (Chris Snyder, Conor Jackson and Eric Byrnes), trade (Felipe Lopez), or release (Tony Clark), the Diamondbacks have opened up four positions for auditions.

We have already taken a look at Josh Whitesell and his chances of proving himself worthy of the first base job. But will these other young D-Backs have lasting power? Let’s take a look at a trio of possibly under-appreciated D-Backs.

Ryan Roberts – Roberts was a fringe option a while back, but now he’s shown a little bit of power (three home runs) and a little bit of speed (five stolen bases) without a glaringly bad batting average. Is it possible that Roberts will claim the job and keep it despite being a minor league journeyman that has suffered from a bad strikeout rate in the majors so far? In a word, yes. Mostly because of his defense (+18.5 UZR/150 at 2B) and the lack of a potential second baseman in the system (although Rusty Ryal is showing good power in AAA right now, he’s old at 26 and has an inconsistent career), Roberts looks like a strong bet to keep the job. With the fact that his strikeout rates have consistently declined in both the major leagues and minor leagues, Roberts could actually find himself starting for many NL-only leagues next year, but he won’t be the kind of player that wins or loses your league for you. There’s just not enough power or speed here.

Gerardo Parra – Parra is another player that didn’t elicit much excitement in the minor leagues, albeit without all the bouncing around that Roberts had to go through. It just was clear from his .311/.373/.436 minor league line that he didn’t have much power, and though he had 84 stolen bases in the minors, his 71% success rate and declining steals totals weren’t very exciting either. Add in the fact that it was clear from his usage in the minors that the team didn’t think he was a center fielder, and you have your typical fourth outfielder. So far his .281/.321/.427 major league line this year is borderline, and good enough for fantasy owners in deep leagues. But with Byrnes coming back with his big contract and better defense (0.2 UZR/150 for Parra, 6.2 for Byrnes), the guess here is that Parra will be a bench bat next year.

Miguel Montero – Montero is actually in a different category. He’s more of a post-hype sleeper, because he came up with nice numbers in the minors (.291/.360/.467) and the designation of Future Catcher for the DBacks. Then a funny thing happened on the way to his first 500+ plate appearances. He struck out more than he ever did in the minor leagues and just couldn’t put enough wood on the bat to keep his batting average north of .250 for very long. Guess what. He’s got his strikeout rate down to his minor league levels (around 15%), and suddenly he looks like he did in the minor leagues: a catcher that can discern pitches and whallop the right ones. Montero is a stud again, and should be owned in all keeper leagues regardless of size. Like Roberts, sometimes it just takes a little time to get back to the player you were in the minors.

It seems as though outfielder Lastings Milledge has been around forever, doesn’t it? Despite just turning 24 in April, the intriguing yet infuriating Milledge is now on his third major league club.

The 12th overall selection in the 2003 amateur draft, Milledge was once the darling of the New York Mets system. A fantastic athlete with a pretty good idea of what he was doing at the dish, Milledge also possessed more power than his 6-0, 190 pound frame suggested. He quickly climbed up the prospect ranks, as Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Mets system in 2005 and 2006.

By the time the ’06 season rolled around, Milledge was a 21 year-old posting an outstanding .277/.388/.440 line at AAA Norfolk. Sure, his base stealing efficiency needed a ton of work (13 swiped in 23 attempts), but it’s difficult to complain about a center fielder with a good eye (12.3 BB%) and doubles power (.163 ISO). Milledge’s first foray into the majors later that season was not a smashing success (.241/.310/.380 in 185 PA) and apparently veteran players weren’t lining up to be his friend, but Lastings looked like a fixture in Queens.

Milledge made the Mets out of spring training in 2007, but soon found himself back in Norfolk. He suffered a foot injury and got caught up in the ceaseless New York tabloids for a rap song he appeared in, but he did take 206 trips to the plate for the big league club. All things considered, Milledge’s success was promising. His control of the strike zone wasn’t superb (6.6 BB%, 22.9 K%), but he hit .272/.341/.446, good for a .174 ISO in his age-22 season.

However, Milledge fell out of favor with the Mets, and the Amazin’s shipped their former prized pupil to the Nationals in November of ’07 for a seemingly underwhelming package of catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church. The move looked like a steal for the Nats, who acquired a young, up-the-middle talent for a light-hitting backstop and a platoon-type outfielder.

Milledge got his first chance at everyday playing time in the bigs in 2008, taking 587 plate appearances in Washington. While his .268/.330/.402 line wasn’t bad, it also wasn’t the sort of progress that one would hope for from such a highly-touted player.

That keen plate discipline exhibited at Norfolk failed to manifest, as Milledge walked just 6.8% of the time. Lastings offered at 31.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (well above the 25% MLB average) and put himself behind in the count often. Milledge’s First-Pitch Strike% was 61.2%, compared to the 58.6% big league average.

He didn’t put a charge into the ball (.134 ISO), while also suggesting that the whole center field thing? It wasn’t gonna work out (Lastings’ UZR/150 in the middle garden was an abysmal -20.1). While it’s likely that he’s not that bad out there, it’s not like Milledge’s minor league work in center offered great promise of a turnaround.

While he opened the season with Washington in 2009, Milledge soon found himself back in AAA after a poor start. He suffered a broken finger that required surgery, then was shipped to Pittsburgh along with Joel Hanrahan for UZR demi-god Nyjer Morgan and lefty reliever Sean “the Pirates are a joke, thank god I’m with the Nats now” Burnett.

Lastings’ digit is now healed, and he was recently recalled by the Bucs to take over the everyday left field spot. Milledge’s acquisition has often been hailed as a great buy-low opportunity for Pittsburgh, as the team was said to surrender “only” a fourth outfielder in Morgan. That claim likely sells Mr. Morgan short- his decent bat and superb range make him a perfectly acceptable regular– but the Pirates did attempt to sell high on Nyjer while shooting for the stars with Milledge.

With Milledge not projecting to be the asset once imagined in the field or on the base paths (his career stolen base percentage in the minors is 68.7%, and 67.4% in the majors), he will need to recapture that strike-zone judgment that seemingly skipped town when he left the Mets organization. He’s a below-average fielder playing a corner spot, where the cumulative line is .266/.341/.434. Can Milledge meet that standard? Most pre-season projections concluded that he would be in the ball park:

CHONE: .279/.350/.435
Oliver: .271/.333/.429
ZiPS: .280/.343/.452

Milledge is not a lost cause by any means, but he’s far from the sure-fire asset that he projected to be just a few short years ago. Lastings will need to make some lasting changes in his plate approach if he wishes to shed the bust label in the ‘Burgh.

The deadline to make fantasy trades either has already happened or is just around the corner, depending upon your league rules. If your league still permits trading, start working the phones and see what you can do. In that regard, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Alex Rodriguez – A lot of owners are worried about Rodriguez’ relative lack of power this season, especially given the way new Yankee Stadium has played. Rodriguez has not hit a HR since July 19th and 13 of his 19 HR this year have come at home. But his HR/FB rate is better than it was last season and Rodriguez is unlikely to maintain a .263 BABIP going forward.

Clayton Richard – In his second season with the White Sox, Richard held his own. He posted an ERA just slightly above league average and his K/9 of 6.67 was good. Now he finds himself pitching in the NL without a designated hitter and he goes from pitching in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Petco Park, one of the best pitching parks in baseball. It should add up to make him a valuable fantasy pitcher for the rest of 2009.

Alex Rios – The expectations for Rios always seem to exceed the actual production. Some hoped he would threaten 30-30 while batting close to .300 and it just has not worked out that way. But Rios is on target to exceed last year’s HR and RBI totals while coming close to his career-best steal output. His BABIP is 30 points below his career mark and RoS ZiPS forecasts him to hit .282 for the remainder of the season.

Jeff Niemann – There is nothing in Niemann’s overall profile to recommend acquiring him, while his FIP and HR/FB ratio might even suggest him as a sell candidate. But since the middle of May, Niemann has been a steady and consistent fantasy hurler. In his last 14 games, Niemann is 8-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.197 WHIP. Niemann has started throwing more curveballs, giving batters another pitch to consider.

Lastings Milledge – Many fantasy owners expected Milledge to have a breakout season in 2009 and that just has not happened. But the trade to Pittsburgh offers him a new start and he has two things in his favor now that he did not have earlier in Washington. First, Milledge is not a leadoff hitter and with Andrew McCutchen around to fill that bill for the Pirates, it frees Milledge to bat lower in the order. And while it does not appear on the surface to matter in fantasy, McCutchen also allows Milledge to play an outfield corner in Pittsburgh, where he is much more suited defensively. Milledge is only owned in 23 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is worth a flier if he is available on your waiver wire.

Exchange

Aramis Ramirez – Fantasy owners have been without Ramirez for most of the year, so it seems an odd time to be shopping him now. Since returning from the DL, Ramirez has posted a .321-5-17-15-0 fantasy line in 21 games. But Ramirez also has a .353 BA BIP, 58 points above his career average. And his HR/FB rate of 16.4 percent is his highest since 2005.

Joba Chamberlain – He has been lights out in his last three starts, offering fantasy owners the production they dreamed about when they selected him in the top half of their draft. But while he is doing his best pitching of the season, word is that the Yankees are going to cap his innings somewhere around 160 innings this season. Now, when push comes to shove, New York may not go through with that plan but Chamberlain owners owe it to themselves to see if they can trade him for equivalent value and minimize their risk going forward.

Alex Gordon – After spending most of the season on the DL with a hip injury, Gordon is back for the Royals. His first two weeks back have been nothing special. Like Rios, expectations for Gordon always seem to outstrip his production but Gordon is unlikely to offer the upside of Rios in any single fantasy category for the rest of the season.

Jarrod Washburn – He was exceeding all expectations this season in Seattle and now he has to keep that performance up in the heat of a pennant race in Detroit. Washburn has been through the playoff chase numerous times before while with the Angels but owners should be wary of how he will do moving away from Safeco Park and the vaunted Mariners defense. And for what it is worth, Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in eight starts in Comerica Park.

James Loney – In his last 14 games, Loney is batting .397 with 14 RBIs. But even in this hot streak, Loney has zero HR. Loney’s HR/FB rate checks in at a dismal 5.4 percent and in order to be a valuable corner infielder in fantasy, Loney will need a much higher AVG than his .293 mark this season with such puny HR production.

Stock Up

Rich Harden, Cubs

Fantasy owners pretty much know what to expect from Harden by this point: transient brilliance, followed by a stint or two on the disabled list. 2009 has been little different (10.56 K/9, 3.77 BB/9), though an inflated homer rate (1.74 HR/9, 16.7 HR/FB%) has put a dent in his ERA, which sits at 4.50. The 27 year-old Canadian has been considerably better than that: his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.64. That’s exactly the same as his 2008 figure (when his ERA was slightly over two).

Rich has been on a tear lately, with 32 K’s, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed in 24 innings over his past four starts. Harden is one of those great “what if” pitchers. He crushes hitters with a fastball/changeup combo (he scrapped a plus slider because it caused him discomfort), and just about no one makes contact against him (his 67.9% contact rate is the lowest among starters tossing 90+ frames). If only we knew that he would make his next start…

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Some in the Pittsburgh media choose to ignore age, durability, service time and baseball economics, howling at every trade the Pirates make. To hear some tell it, it’s as if Pirates management is Kurtz-like, putting veteran Bucco heads on poles and keeping all the money and ivory for themselves- “The horror! they traded someone I know for someone I don’t!”.

Meanwhile, McCutchen is showing that these purportedly worthless, alien beings received for those beloved vets (sometimes referred to as “prospects”) can actually turn into studs. One of the very few successful remnants of the Dave Littlefield era, McCutchen is a 22 year-old with a shed full of tools. In his rookie campaign, the ’05 first-rounder is more than holding his own (.292/.347/.484, .365 wOBA in 239 PA).

McCutchen’s three-homer outburst on Saturday versus the Nationals is not something that should be expected on a regular basis (he slugged .423 in the minors), but he has some thump in his bat and a decent eye at the plate. Owners will also take note of his outstanding raw speed- McCutchen has swiped 10 bags in 12 tries in the majors, though his work at AAA Indianapolis last season (64.1% success rate) suggests he still needs some work on reading pitchers.

Jeff Niemann, Rays

A 2004 first-round pick out of Rice, Niemann punched out 9.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues. However, he whiffed just slightly above five per nine in the majors from April-June. The 6-9 right-hander has picked up the pace since then, with 20 K’s in 26.2 July frames (6.8 K/9) and 7 K’s in 8 IP during his first start of August. Niemann also limited the free passes, with 4 walks in July and none in his first outing this month. In fact, the 26 year-old is pounding the zone more and more as the year goes on:

Niemann’s Zone%, by month (the MLB average is 49.3%)

April: 46.2
May: 51.2
June: 53.2
July: 59.6

Kendry Morales, Angels

Heading into the 2009 season, the Cuban switch-hitter figured to be something of a drag on Los Angeles’ offense. First base is a position where if a player doesn’t mash, they’re a liability. And Morales’ preseason projections looked bleak:

CHONE: .327 wOBA
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325

Instead, the 26 year-old has popped 23 home runs, slugged .581 and posted a .383 wOBA. That’s pretty impressive, but believe it or not, that ranks 12th among first baseman. Morales is handling fastballs well (+0.98 runs/100 pitches), but throwing him a curveball has pretty much been the worst idea, ever (+5.13 runs/100).

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Jimenez entered the 2009 campaign with plenty going his way. After all, the 25 year-old sat in the mid-90’s with his fastball (and it’s not straight as an arrow), with a pair of nasty breaking pitches and a nice changeup as well. The big question was: could he hit the strike zone more often?

The answer appears to be a resounding “yes.” Jimenez has lowered his walk rate from 4.67 per nine innings in 2008 to 3.38 in ’09, while missing more bats (8.02 K/9, up from 7.79). That’s awfully impressive, when you consider that Ubaldo putting fewer runners on first means fewer chances to K hitters (his percentage of batters punched out is up from 19.8 to 21.1).

Obscene stuff, improved control, and groundball tendencies (52.6 GB%)? What’s not to like?

Stock Down

Jarrod Washburn, Tigers

The newest Tiger has turned in a pretty nice season, as his 2.39 K/BB ratio is the highest mark of his career. But a 2.64 ERA pitcher he is not: Washburn (a flyball, pitch-to-contact lefty residing in friendly Safeco) has benefitted from a .249 BABIP (second-lowest among starters) and his 79.5% strand rate is over five percent above his career figure.

Heading to Detroit, Washburn will still pitch in front of a quality defense (the Tigers place 5th in team UZR), but it would be prudent to expect that shiny ERA to rise at least somewhat. Washburn’s rest-of-season ZiPS ERA comes in at 4.73, which is probably a little on the harsh side. But if you can barter the soon-to-be- 35 year-old southpaw for something substantial, this would be the time to do it. Washburn isn’t bad by any means, but he’s more of a low-four ERA pitcher than the ace that his ERA would indicate.

Brandon Wood, Angels

Wood needs a hug, an off-season trade, or both. The long-time prospect was optioned back to AAA on deadline day, after another big league call-up in which he mostly sipped Gatorade and waited to be sent back to Salt Lake.

In three years and 220 PA of scattershot major league playing time, Wood has posted a 2.8% walk rate, while punching out 31.1% of the time. The righty batter has plenty of pop (he’s hitting .313/.366/.587 at AAA, though Salt Lake is a hitter-friendly venue), but L.A.’s surprisingly adept offense leaves Wood toiling in AAA. His questionable control of the zone leads to some less-than-stellar Major League Equivalencies: according to Minor League Splits, Wood’s 2009 season translates to .253/.294/.462 at the highest level.

Nick Blackburn, Twins

As a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as anyone (only John Lannan has a lower K rate among starters), Blackburn is subject to the caprices of his defense. That worked out pretty well during the first three months of the season…

BABIP by month

April: .307
May: .273
June: .271

…but July was most unkind to the to the sinker/cutter righty. Blackburn suffered from a .347 BABIP, surrendering 23 runs in 31.1 IP. If you’re expecting ace-like production from Nick, he’ll sorely disappoint you. Blackburn is basically a right-handed Zach Duke, as a strike-tossing starter who will occasionally have a month where more of those squibbers find holes. Unfortunately, the Twins haven’t been particularly adept with the leather (ranking 27th in team UZR).

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

If Bonifacio is still in your starting lineup, then you’re likely a masochist, in last place, or both. The switch-hitting infielder, formerly of the D-Backs and Nationals, has shown a dizzying propensity to make outs this season. His .275 wOBA “bests” only Jason Kendall and Willy Taveras among qualified batters, but he’ll now have a reduced role in Florida with the club’s acquisition of OBP fiend Nick Johnson.

Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base, with Bonifacio apparently platooning with Chris Coghlan in left field. Cantu has been statuesque at third (-14.5 UZR/150 career), but even with a lead glove, the move improves Florida’s chances. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math comparing a Cantu 1B/Bonifacio 3B infield to a Johnson 1B/Cantu 3B alignment has the Fish coming out with a 1-1.5 win upgrade over the rest of the season.

Jack Cust, Athletics

Oakland’s DH/”outfielder” has experienced a goofy 2009 season. Long a Three True Outcomes hero, Cust has gradually put the ball in play more often:

2007: 21 BB%, 41.5 K%, 31.7 HR/FB%
2008: 18.8 BB%, 41 K%, 29.7 HR/FB%
2009: 14.5 BB%, 33 K%, 15.2 HR/FB%

Has Jack consciously changed his approach at the plate in order to put the bat on the ball more often? It seems like it. Cust’s Outside-Swing% is up to 19.8%, from 2008’s 15.3% rate. He’s swinging at more pitches within the zone as well (69.4%, compared to 62.8% in ’08), while making contact with 80.6% of those pitches within the zone (71.1% in 2008). Overall, Cust has offered at 43% of pitches seen, well above his 38.3% clip in 2008.

If Jack is trying to shorten his swing and make more contact, he might want to stop. Cust posted a .245 Isolated Power in ’08, but that figure is down to .172 this year. A less-powerful, less TTO-ish Cust has been a league average hitter (.335 wOBA).

Heading into the 2009 season, no fantasy position was as screwed up as shortstop. The first three spots were written in stone but if you looked at 10 different rankings, it is possible you might not have found even two lists which had one player the same in their rankings from four through 20.

And if we thought it was a mess heading into the year, it has been even more unpredictable two-thirds of the way through the 2009 season. I am going to use the preseason rankings of my friend Troy Patterson from Roto Savants to illustrate this point. Patterson does excellent work and readers may recognize his name from comments he has left on articles here previously. I am going to compare his rankings versus the current numbers for SS from the RotoTimes Player Rater (RTPR).

1. Hanley Ramirez (RTPR #1) – Ramirez probably went in the top three of your draft, if not first overall. He checks in today with a dollar value of $33.19 and in raw dollars is the third-best fantasy hitter.

2. Jose Reyes (RTPR #25) – Reyes had been one of the most consistent fantasy players the past four seasons but has had this year ruined by his leg injuries.

3. Jimmy Rollins (RTPR #14) – Rollins deserved to be the third shortstop off the board this year but a first-round pick was too high. Rollins delivered first-round value in his MVP season of 2007 but that season he set career bests in four fantasy categories and also had 41 SB.

4. Jhonny Peralta (RTPR #19) – Peralta hit 20+ HR in three of the past four seasons but this year is on pace to hit just 14. Also, he projects to finish with just 66 R, after scoring 104 last season and finishing with 80 or more the previous three seasons.

5. J.J. Hardy (RTPR #31) – Hardy was coming off back-to-back strong fantasy seasons in which he contributed in four categories. For healthy players, he belongs in the conversation for biggest fantasy busts of the year with his -$5.08 dollar value so far.

6. Stephen Drew (RTPR #20) – Owners enthralled by his strong second half in 2008 have been really disappointed by Drew’s 2009 season. After putting up a .927 OPS after the All-Star break last year, only a strong season at home this year has kept 2009 from being a disaster. Drew has a .225 AVG away from Chase Field and a .667 OPS in road games.

7. Troy Tulowitzki (RTPR #6) – Injuries ruined Tulowitzki’s 2008 season and fantasy owners were cautious with him heading into this year. Tulowitzki got off to a slow start but since June 7th he has a .320-15-36-40-10 line in his last 50 games.

8. Derek Jeter (RTPR #2) – Jeter’s days as a fantasy star seemed to be over but he has surprised everyone by once again being a five-category fantasy player. After posting 11 HR and 11 SB in 150 games last year, Jeter has 11 HR and 19 SB in 99 games this season.

9. Michael Young (RTPR #3) – Another player whose best fantasy days seemed to be behind him, Young has thrived with a move to 3B, although he retains his SS eligibility for this season. Young is on pace for his best year since 2005, when he finished 11th in the MVP race.

10. Rafael Furcal (RTPR #23) – A trendy pick to be the fourth SS off the board, Furcal has been healthy this season but not nearly as productive as he was last year before going down with a back injury. Furcal has been hot lately and will likely move up among SS before the year is out.

Six of the top 10 players on this list have current positional ratings of 14 or lower. Compare that to Patterson’s first base list, in which eight of the players in his preseason top 10 currently rank in the top 11 spots at the position.

So, which players not listed above currently rank in the top 10 SS? They are as follows:

4. Jason Bartlett (Patterson preseason #23) – In his third season as a full-time player, Barlett is far surpassing numbers he put up previously. He already has established career-bests in HR and RBI and is only 3 SB off his personal best.

5. Miguel Tejada (Patterson #12) – A .339 BABIP is certainly helping to rejuvenate Tejada. But he also benefits from a strong performance in RBIs. Updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 92 RBIs, which would be his best mark since 2006 and 29 more than he produced last season.

7. Marco Scutaro (Patterson not in top 25) – In his age 33 season, Scutaro will establish career highs in all five fantasy categories. Yes, some of that is due simply to playing time, but Scutaro did post 592 PA last season.

8. Ryan Theriot (Patterson #15) – Most people were not as bullish on Theriot as Patterson was. He had a .340 BABIP last year (with no power) and the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model had him for a .291 mark in the category. No one was expecting Theriot to post a .336 BABIP this season.

9. Yunel Escobar (Patterson #18) – It seems like just yesterday that pundits were referring to Escobar as a “Yutility infielder” and now he is a solid starter in a 12-team mixed league.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera (Patterson not in top 25) – Cabrera was draft worthy coming into the season due to his eligibility at both 2B and SS. A .359 BABIP has made him a starter in most leagues, although he has also contributed more SB than anyone expected.

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
MIL – Gallardo
DET – Washburn
NYY – Pettitte
STL – Pineiro
BAL – Matusz
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Chamberlain
BOS – Penny
TEX – Feldman
BAL – Bergesen
DET – French
CLE – Laffey

Lester had a string of six straight Quality Starts snapped in his last outing July 30th versus the A’s, when he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP in a no-decision. He has two road starts this week with games at Tampa and at New York. So far in 2009 Lester’s ERA is 4.52 in road games, compared to 3.33 in Fenway Park.

Gallardo has reeled off back-to-back wins after being saddled with a loss in three straight appearances. In his last outing, Gallardo fanned 11 batters and allowed just one walk in seven innings versus the Nationals. The solo walk was an encouraging sign for Gallardo, who has allowed a career-high 4.27 BB/9 this season.

Washburn makes his first starts for his new team this week and fantasy owners are eager to find out if his good fortune this season follows him to Detroit. Washburn has a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate this season. His FIP checks in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his 2.64 ERA. Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in Comerica Park, where he will make both starts this week.

Pettitte seeks to snap a three-game losing streak this week. The Yankees lefthander has not won since July 1st, a stretch that covers five games. In that span he has a 5.34 ERA. After starting the season with a 5-1 record, Pettitte has a 3-5 mark with a 4.92 ERA over his past 11 starts and has allowed eight HRs in 64 IP.

Pineiro picked up four losses in June despite a 2.65 ERA for the month. So in July he posted a 1.22 ERA and went 3-0 in five starts. Pineiro is continuing to serve up grounders, as 61 percent of his batted balls are beat into the ground. His GB/FB ratio of 2.70 easily leads the majors and he has the lowest HR/FB mark (3.0%) of all qualified pitchers.

Matusz is scheduled to make his major league debut this week subbing for the injured Bergesen. The 6’5 LHP was a combined 11-2 this season between two levels, including 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Double-A Bowie. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 Draft, Matusz has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and he fanned 120 batters in 112 innings in the minors.

Huff has a 6.39 ERA but has received an average run support of 6.05 runs per game, which explains how he sits at 5-5 after 14 games. But with a 1.58 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of 4.62 Huff is not a good fantasy pitcher regardless of how much run support he receives.

Erik Manning did a fine job looking at the Scott Rolen-to-Cincinnati trade from a transactional standpoint, but fantasy managers might be interested in the prognosis for Rolen’s power in his new address. The same could be said of fantasy managers looking at Nick Johnson in Florida.

At first glance, Rolen should enjoy playing in Great American Ball Park. Though park factors aren’t always consistent from year to year, the Reds ballpark is consistently favorable to hitters. It has a 1.063 park factor for home runs this year, but last year that number was 1.23 and in 2007 it was the second-best park for power (with a whopping 1.351 park factor. In the three years before this year, the park consistently awarded over 20% more home runs than a neutral ballpark.

ZiPS RoS has Rolen down for a whopping four more home runs, though. 20% more than four is not very exciting. Is it possible that Rolen will see a more significant boost in power? His home runs per fly ball have been pretty stable for the past three years, hovering around 7%. His fly ball percentage has also been stable (around 40%), though lower than it was when he was more of a power hitter. In fact, his current 41.9% fly ball percentage and 6.3% home run per fly ball are his worst and second-worst marks in those respective categories.

The power is not coming back. Judging from the comments on R.J. Anderson’s recent article on Rolen it seems the power outage is part of a concerted effort to revamp his swing after his shoulder woes. At least his line drive gains seem for real (two straight years of improvement, and his current 25.2% would only be his second-best mark ever), and that park can help boost all his non-home run hits as well. He still gets a little boost with the move.

Nick Johnson’s move is in the wrong direction. He’s already currently sporting a slugging percentage below his on-base percentage, which is not an easy thing to do, and he’s moving from a neutral-to-offensive park to a known pitcher’s park in Florida.

At least, it used to be a pitcher’s park. “Land Shark” stadium is currently sporting a robust 1.182 park factor for home runs, ranking fourth in that category in the league, and 23 spots above Nationals Park and its .791 number. Is Johnson in line for a 30% power boost? Not so fast. The average park factor in Florida, from 2006-2008, was .91. Nationals park last year played to a .942 park factor for home runs over the full year.

Rolen is moving from an offense that ranks tenth in the league in runs to one that ranks 26th, so he’ll feel a hit in the runs and RBI categories that could undo any positive park effects. Johnson is moving from a team that ranks 20th in runs to one that ranks 17th and has negligible park effect differences. The unexciting conclusion is that these low-power bats will not gain much in their new homes.