Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Wes Hodges: A former second round pick out of Georgia Tech, Hodges is knocking on the door for a shot at the third base job in Cleveland. He is currently hitting .264/.308/.416 with 20 doubles and five homers in 231 at-bats. Hodges, 24, has struggled with his batting average a bit this season, but he should be able to maintain a .270-.290 average in the Majors with average to slight-below average power for the hot corner. He performs equally well against right-handed and left-handed pitchers in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, although his slugging percentage is almost .100 points higher against right-handers.

Mike Stanton: Stanton’s double-A numbers are not overly exciting but he’s just 19 years of age. The powerful, young outfielder hit .294/.390/.578 with 12 homers in 180 at-bats prior to his promotion from high-A ball to double-A. At the senior level, Stanton is hitting .239/.317/.468 with 12 homers in 222 at-bats. Last season, he hit 39 homers as a 19 year old. His power is off the charts, but he needs to trim his strikeout rates, which currently sit at 33.3 K%. He may also be pressing to drive in runs with a .259 batting average with the bases empty and a .183 average with runners in scoring position. Stanton will no doubt return to double-A in 2010 but, if everything clicks, he could be in Florida by mid-season.

Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez got off to a slow start in his first pro season, but he’s picked things up since being promoted to double-A. The third baseman is hitting almost .100 points higher despite playing at a more difficult level. He may be the type of player that needs to be challenged. Alvarez, 22, is currently hitting .327/.395/.558 with eight homers in 156 double-A at-bats. His numbers have been helped by an extremely high BABIP at .413 and his walk rate (10.9 BB%) is down three percent from high-A ball. His strikeout rate is almost identical at 28.2 K%. Alvarez does have a healthy line-drive rate at 20.7%. The power is legit, but at this point he’s probably a .250-.260 hitter in the Majors.

Adam Moore: The trade of Jeff Clement to Pittsburgh opens the door to the full-time catching gig once Seattle tires of Kenji Johjima behind the dish. Rob Johnson has an early lead on the job thanks to his current presence in the Majors and solid defensive work, but Moore is the superior hitter. The right-handed hitter opened the season in double-A but moved up to triple-A after just 27 games. At triple-A, Moore is currently hitting .298/.347/.419 with six homers in 265 at-bats. His walk rate is at its lowest point in three seasons at 6.7 BB%, but so is his strikeout rate at 15.1 K%. The 25-year-old has the potential to hit 15-20 homers in the Majors and he performs well against southpaws (.329/.372/.466 in ’09).

Allen Craig: The former eighth-round pick out of the University of California (2006) has been spending more time in the outfield and could see significant playing time for the Cardinals in 2010 if Matt Holliday does not resign with the club. Craig can also play first base and third base, so his versatility adds to his value. The 25-year-old is currently hitting .312/.368/.534 with 21 homers in 382 at-bats at triple-A. He’s hit 20 homers-plus and batted more than .300 in three straight seasons. Craig has a walk rate of 7.5 BB% and a strikeout rate of 19.9 K%. He’s an underrated prospect with a real chance to help St. Louis in 2010.

Angel Salome: Milwaukee recently purged a number of under-performing veterans and catcher Jason Kendall could be on the way out of town after the season ends. Salome is a step down defensive, especially when you consider Kendall’s leadership and game-calling skills, but the prospect has a much better bat. The right-handed hitter is a legitimate .280-.300 hitter with excellent contact skills. He’ll probably never hit for power in the Majors with his line drive swing and 5’7” stature. Durability could also be an issue with the young catcher. This season in triple-A, Salome is hitting .289/.338/.418. He has a walk rate of 7.3 BB% and a strikeout rate of 19.3 K%.

For most pitchers, reaching the latter stages of one’s career entails making concessions to Father Time. That fastball doesn’t hop quite as much as it used to, so it’s probably time to stop challenging hitters up in the zone so often. The slider doesn’t snap like it did in the good old days, so perhaps it’s time to try and add a new pitch to the ol’ bag of tricks.

That’s the deal for most pitchers. John Smoltz took that axiom and turned it right on its head. The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander crushed opposing hitters for years in the Atlanta Braves rotation, and he was still going strong at 32 years old with the Braves back in 1999 (186.1 IP, 3.14 Fielding Independent ERA). He had, however, become increasingly fragile, and his health issues came to a crescendo prior to the 2000 season when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Upon returning in 2001, Smoltz transitioned to the bullpen in an attempt to stay off the D.L. This kick-started a new era in his career, as he began a four-year run of dominance out of the ‘pen:

Win Probability Added totals, 2001-2004:

2001: 1.61
2002: 4.67
2003: 3.29
2004: 4.93

It’s not like Smoltz was forced to finesse his way through lineups in the ninth inning, a la Ryan Franklin. He was still dealing, sitting between 95 and 97 MPH with his fastball, snapping off wicked high-80’s sliders and high-80’s splitters that plummeted upon reaching the plate.

That Smoltz was still mauling hitters at age 37 was extraordinary enough. But he then went back in the rotation, topping 200 innings each season from 2005-2007 while posting FIP’s of 3.27, 3.44 and 3.21, respectively. His heater sat around 93, and the slider and splitter were still sharp. 2008 did not go nearly as well, as Smoltz suffered a shoulder injury that shelved him for most of the season.

He made a brief comeback as a reliever, only to blow a save opportunity and opt for season-ending surgery in June. When he was able to take the mound, Smoltz managed to punch out 36 batters in 28 frames, issuing 8 walks and surrendering 25 hits.

Over the off-season, the 42 year-old inked a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Red Sox. He continued to mend the shoulder, taking an extended rehab assignment (27.1 IP, 21/4 K/BB between Greenville, Portland and Pawtucket) before making his Sox debut on June 25th vs. the Washington Nationals.

Upon first glance, Father Time appears to finally snatched away Smoltz’s ability to blow away hitters at the highest level. He made 8 starts for Boston, getting bombarded for an 8.38 ERA and a 2-5 record in 40 innings pitched. That’s the sort of line that would make Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson giggle. The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment recently, ending the reclamation project of the former Cy Young award winner. Surely Smoltz is done, right?

I’m not so sure. Assuming that Smoltz wishes to continue his career elsewhere, he may still have something to offer. Despite the horrific ERA, John managed to strike out 7.43 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.03 BB/9. However, a .390 BABIP, an inflated HR/FB rate (14.8%) and an uncharacteristically low 56.9% rate of stranding runners have conspired to make Smoltz look like a pinata.

Smoltz’s stuff, while not vintage, looked good enough to combat most lineups. His fastball sat at 91 MPH (down a tick from the previous few years), with an 85 MPH slider and splitter (he also tossed an occasional high-70’s curveball).

Smoltz’s plate discipline stats suggest that hitters still found that mix difficult to handle at times. He managed a 33.1 Outside-Swing% (30.6 O-Swing% since 2002). Opponents made contact with a few more pitches placed within the strike zone (87.9%, right at the MLB average and 3.8% above his overall rate since 2002). It’s not like batters were roping every pitch he threw: his 18.1% line drive rate was actually below his marks from 2005-2007.

The dichotomy between Smoltz’s actual ERA and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (4.37) is massive. Taking only a cursory look at his numbers, Smoltz appears to have a fork sticking out of his the back of his jersey instead of his customary “29.” However, the long-time Brave still appears to have something left in the tank, if teams are willing to look past the grisly superficial stats.

Alex Rios was claimed off of waivers today and will be a Chicago White Sock shortly. In our look at Scott Rolen and Nick Johnson in their new digs, we established somewhat of a precedent for trying to analyze the effect of a mid-season home park change: look at the park left behind, the new park, and the tendencies of the hitter as well as their history. So let’s take a look at Rios from an offensive standpoint, as the White Sox ponder their $60 million dollar addition.

The team has had historic problems in center field, so in some ways they can’t be blamed for coveting a player that has performed well in center field (12.8 UZR/150). But let this be about his offense, which has been inconsistent at best.

At first glance, his power shouldn’t be too effected by the move. Rogers Centre currently has a 1.152 park factor for home runs, and US Cellular a 1.164 number. However, Rogers had a sub-1.00 park factor for home runs last year, another park pointing at the instability of park factors. Over a three year period, Rogers came in at a 1.20 park factor while the Cell had a slightly more robust 1.293 park factor for home runs.

So far we’re looking at a maximum of a 5% overall power increase for Rios. Like with Rolen and Johnson before, 5% on a player averaging around 20 home runs a year is not a huge increase. Could Rios profile well for US Cellular and receive more of a power boost?

Though I still desire more detailed spray charts for hitters – and would appreciate being put in the right direction by anybody reading this piece – www.hittrackeronline.com can give us his spray charts for home runs.

Rios pulls almost all of his home runs. He’s hit 10 of his 14 this year to left field, as his home run chart shows. This continues a trend – last year he hit 14 of 15 out in left field, and the other was in left-center. 20 of his 24 in 2007 went out to left or left-center.

The Rogers Centre is 328 down the line and 375 in the left-center power alley. US Cellular is 330 down the line and 375 in left-center according to wikipedia. Perhaps it’s the wind that helps the Cell play tougher on pitchers, because the dimensions are practically the same.

The final question, it seems, is if Rios will ever bust out with some real power. A popular answer has been that he won’t because he hits too few fly balls. But his career fly ball rate (37.2%) is weighed down by his first two years in the league when he was a true worm-burner. He’s settled in around 40% now, and there are plenty of other sluggers that hit 40% of their balls in the air (Adrian Gonzalez and Lance Berkman just to name a couple).

What those other sluggers have that Rios doesn’t just happens to show up in their respective home runs per fly ball numbers. Rios (9.5% this year, 8.6% career) just doesn’t measure up to Gonzalez (17.3% career) and Berkman (19.6%). After 3071 plate appearances and a home run per fly ball rate just around the league average, I think it’s safe to say that Rios, in his average season, will display 20-home run power, no matter which of these two fields he calls home.

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.

Stock Up

Everth Cabrera, Padres

A Rule V pick-up from the Colorado Rockies organization, Cabrera is a switch-hitting water bug with speed to spare. The Nicaragua native seemed like a long shot to stick on the big league roster for the duration of the 2009 season, as he hadn’t played above the High Class A level.

While Cabrera missed a chunk of time with a left hand injury, he has surpassed expectations in San Diego. In 213 plate appearances, the 22 year-old shortstop is batting .263/.341/.414, with a .344 wOBA. He’s doing a nice job of working the count (9.7 BB%, with a 53.5 First-Pitch Strike% that’s about 5 points below the MLB average) while swiping 15 bags in 17 attempts (an 88% success rate). It’s probably best not to get too carried away with a few hundred PA’s of performance, but the Padres may have pilfered an everyday shortstop from a division rival.

Derek Holland, Rangers

In 91 innings, Holland has a 5.04 ERA. That sounds a trifle disappointing from such a heralded prospect, but his peripherals are actually quite strong. The 22 year-old lefty, ranked by Baseball America as the 2nd-best talent in a fertile Texas farm system, has punched out 7.52 batters per nine innings, while keeping the walks in check as well (2.97 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR per fly ball rate) is 4.25.

Holland’s recent success (he dominated Seattle on July 30th and the Angels last night, with a middling start against Oakland in between) has many taking notice. His K/BB ratio is gradually climbing, but the big difference lies in his BABIP figures:

May: 2.33 K/BB, .369 BABIP
June: 2.63 K/BB, .360 BABIP
July: 2.78 K/BB, .280 BABIP
August: 2.4 K/BB, .182 BABIP

Justin Masterson, Indians

With Carl Pavano headed to the Twin Cities in an August waiver deal, Masterson steps into the Tribe’s starting rotation. The 24 year-old sinker/slider pitcher, acquired in the Victor Martinez swap with Boston, will get a chance to prove he’s capable of handling a lineup multiple times while keeping those pesky left-handers at bay. On the positive side, Masterson has improved his strikeout and walk rates this season (8.54 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 in 79 IP), stifling right-handed hitters as usual (career .210/.287/.307 line vs. RHB in the majors).

Still, the same questions about Masterson’s viability as a starter apply. With a low-three quarters arm angle and no real changeup to speak of, the San Diego State product is susceptible to southpaw batters (.273/.370/.446 in the big leagues).

Billy Butler, Royals

Butler was a hitting prodigy in the minors, authoring a .336/.416/.561 line, walking 11.5 percent of the time and whiffing just 15 percent. The righty batter kept his head above water in major league stints in 2007 (.341 wOBA) and 2008 (.318), but the 22 year-old is adding some pop to his game in 2009. Butler isn’t a prolific power hitter at this point or anything, but his ISO is up to a healthy .183 for the season and he has deposited 13 souvenirs in the bleachers. On a team that features many “swing first, ask questions later” hitters, Butler is a beacon of hope. And the best is yet to come.

David Price, Rays

The much-discussed Vanderbilt product had a bumpy month of July (20 K’s and 18 BB in 27.2 IP), but Price began to turn it around in July (20/10 K/BB in 23.1 IP) and began the month of August with a bang (6 IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB vs. Boston on the 5th). The 6-6 lefty did a much better job of getting ahead of hitters in July, with a 64.2 First-Pitch Strike% that trumped June’s paltry 48.8% rate.

Stock Down

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

Lowrie’s 2009 season has been a complete bust. The switch-hitting Stanford product held his own as a rookie last season (.326 wOBA in 306 PA), and he entered the spring looking to usurp Julio Lugo as Boston’s everyday shortstop. Lugo is gone, but Lowrie won’t be the one getting a permanent lineup spot. The 25 year-old has dealt with a lingering left wrist injury (which required surgery) and a balky knee, and he heads back to the DL with numbness thought to be related to the aforementioned surgery.

Delmon Young, Twins

The 1st overall selection by the Rays in the 2003 amateur draft, Young tore through the minors. As a player several years younger than the competition, he compiled a .318/.363/.518 line and made his major league debut at the age of 20. In 131 PA with Tampa in 2006, Delmon posted a .343 wOBA. Sure, the line was batting average-driven and he swung at everything (50.3 O-Swing%), but it’s highly impressive for someone that young to hold their own against major league competition.

Flash forward to 2009. Young is nearing 24 year of age, and he has made absolutely no progress toward becoming a major league-caliber hitter, much less a star. After compiling wOBA’s of .315 in 2007 and .324 in 2008, Young is down to a putrid .274 this season. His approach, if you want to call it that, consists of hacking at anything within a 10-mile radius of the Metrodome.

In 245 PA, Young has a 2.9% walk rate, with a strikeout rate (29.2%) is over 10 percent above his career average. While his outside swing percentage is trending down, we’re speaking in awfully relative terms. Young’s 36.7 O-Swing% in 2009 is still nearly 12 percentage points above the MLB average, and is one of the five highest rates among all hitters. Delmon is a near lock to put himself in the pitcher’s clutches by falling behind in the count: his 68.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 10 percentage points above the big league norm and is the 2nd-highest clip among batters with 200+ PA. With the exception of curveballs, he’s not hitting anything well.

That “he’s young” tag is becoming quite tiresome. It’s certainly possible that he improves, but there’s just no evidence that Delmon Young at 23-24 is any more polished than the 20 year-old hacker we saw back in ’06.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Looking for a fresh start with Seattle after an acrimonious end to his Pirates days, Snell tossed a pretty good ballgame against the Rangers on August 2nd (6 IP, 2 R, 4 K). His second start, however, was disastrous. Lasting just 1.1 frames, Snell walked 6 hitters while coughing up 3 runs vs. the Rays.

The 27 year-old right-hander is perplexing as they come. He was an above-average major league starter as recently as 2007, when he posted a 4.01 FIP (7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9) in 208 innings. The wheels have completely fallen off since then, though. Snell walked 4.87 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has issued 5.42 BB/9 in ’09.

His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has fallen precipitously, to 46.4% this year (3 percentage points below the MLB average). Snell’s Outside Swing%, 28.2 in 2007, is just 22 percent in 2009. He posted a 63.7 first-pitch strike% in ’07, but that figure is a lousy 53% in ’09. Hitters have wised up and just aren’t offering at Snell’s stuff. His 41.8 Swing% is 5th-lowest among starters tossing 80+ innings.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Inked to a 2-year, $18.5 million deal this past off-season, Renteria has done his best Yuniesky Betancourt impression in 2009. The 34 year-old owns a sordid .275 wOBA, second-worst among SS taking at least 300 trips to the plate (Yuniesky is first). Renteria’s pop had been on the wane for several years, but it has all but disappeared this year as he deals with an ailing elbow:

2006: .144 ISO
2007: .138 ISO
2008: .111 ISO
2009: .062 ISO

The former Marlin, Cardinal, Red Sock, Brave and Tiger just hasn’t been able to catch up with fastballs this season. His run value per 100 pitches against the heater is -1.17, one of the 10 worst rates among major league hitters. Combine the slack bat with ordinary D, and you have a sub-replacement player (-0.1 WAR).

Zach Duke, Pirates

This has little to do with Duke himself. Rather, it involves the cast of characters surrounding the southpaw when he takes the mound. As a hurler who uses an 88 MPH fastball, 81 MPH slider, 74 MPH curveball and an 81 MPH change to paint the corners, Duke is highly reliant upon the quality of his defense. His career strikeout rate per nine frames is 4.57, and sits at 4.42 in 2009.

In past years, the pitch-to-contact starter was a very poor fit on a Pirates team that featured plodding fielders. Duke suffered from high BABIP figures from 2006 to 2008 (.327, .360 and .327, respectively). In ’09, the Bucs featured a strong group of defenders to start the season, and Duke’s BABIP has dipped to .279 for the year.

Unfortunately for Zach, most of the fellows are gone now. Andrew McCutchen’s scouting reports, minor league data and early big league work (+3.4 UZR/150) peg him as a definite upgrade over Nate McClouth in CF. But the other changes aren’t so promising:

2B: Freddy Sanchez to Delwyn Young
SS: Jack Wilson to Ronny Cedeno
LF: Nyjer Morgan to Lastings Milledge

Cedeno does not appear to be a big problem at short. However, second base and LF figure to take significant hits. Sanchez (career +4.4 UZR at 2B) has been replaced by Young, a corner outfielder who has not played the keystone spot since he was a Dodgers prospect back in 2005. Morgan’s superb range gives way to Milledge, who was a very poor defender in CF. Perhaps he’s an average corner outfielder, but that’s still a big hit relative to the man he took over for.

Duke might end up giving up more bloops during the next few months because of laggardly leather behind him. He wouldn’t be a bad sell-high candidate.

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Wolf
LAD – Kuroda
OAK – G. Gonzalez
SD – Richard
OAK – Cahill
BOS – Tazawa
TEX – Nippert

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

COL – Cook
OAK – Braden
BOS – Smoltz
LAD – Schmidt
SD – Gaudin
TEX – Padilla
SEA – J. Vargas
STL – Boggs

Wolf had a streak of seven consecutive Quality Starts snapped in his last outing, when he allowed four runs in seven innings pitched. Over those last eight games, Wolf has a 3.38 ERA with a 3-to-1 SO/BB ratio and a 1.204 WHIP but he has just a 2-3 record. Wolf has two road starts this week, where he has an ERA a full run lower than he does at Chavez Ravine. His problem in home games is the gopher ball. Wolf has allowed 12 HR in 76 IP at home compared to 6 HR in 71 IP on the road.

Kuroda won his first game in a month his last time out. In his last three outings, Kuroda has 21 Ks in 18 IP. He has been a little unlucky this year with a 62.5 percent strand rate. Kuroda’s FIP checks in at 3.36 compared to a 4.44 ERA.

Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings on July 20th. In three outings since then he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.071 WHIP. Included in those last three games were matchups in New York and Boston.

Richard has a 3.95 BB/9 ratio for the season. But in his last nine starts he has allowed 17 BB in 45.1 innings. Pitch Type Values shows Richard’s fastball being a good pitch but that he gets in trouble with his slider and his cutter.

Cahill has allowed a HR in nine consecutive starts. He has given up 15 homers in that stretch, including two in each of his last two outings. His HR/FB ratio of 16.6 is the fourth highest mark among pitchers who qualify.

Tazawa made his major league debut and took the loss in the 15-inning game last Friday against the Red Sox. Tazawa was 9-5 in Double-A and 0-2 in Triple-A this year, albeit with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.706 WHIP in those two contests.

Nippert has bounced back-and-forth between the bullpen and the rotation this year for the Rangers. In his last outing, a start, he allowed just one hit in five innings and now seems poised for an extended trial as a starter. Nippert averages nearly 93 miles per hour with his fastball and he also throws a change-up and an occasional curve.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo has fired 3.2 scoreless innings to begin August (including 2 saves vs. the White Sox on the 2nd and the Blue Jays on the 4th), fanning three while surrendering 1 walk and 5 hits. Rivera now boasts a 2.82 Win Probability Added, ranking 4th among all relievers. The Panamanian might not light up the radar gun quite as much as in years past (his cutter averages 91.4 MPH now, about 2 MPH slower than before), but that offering remains as deadly as ever (+2.27 runs per 100 pitches thrown).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe had an extended stretch without an appearance, striking out the side vs. the Angels on July 31st and then not returning to the bump until August 7th (he surrendered a walk and a run to Detroit). By whatever metric you would like to use, Nathan is showing no signs of slowing down at age 34. He’s whiffing 11.39 batters per nine innings, limiting the free passes as usual (2.11 BB/9) and generating ample swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (32.7 O-Swing%).

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria was extremely busy to end the month of July, but the Rule V gem has chucked just one inning in August as the Royals lose five of seven to begin the dog days of summer. Joakim has K’d 11.37 batters per nine innings this season, while posting the lowest XFIP (3.04) of his big league tenure.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is Papelbon back on track? Not that the 28 year-old has turned in a poor 2009 season, but an inflated walk rate and a subsequent dip in Outside-Swing% suggested that the typically stingy hurler was missing his spots. Over his last three appearances (3.1 IP spanning from 7/31 to 8/7), Papelbon has punched out five without allowing a walk or a hit. The 6-4, 225 pound righty has a 4.30 XFIP for the season, 1.8 runs higher than his 2008 total.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has endured an uneven beginning to the month. He gave up a homer to Yuniesky Betancourt (no, really) on August 1st, tossed 2.2 scoreless frames against Boston on the 4th and 5th, but again was taken deep yesterday in a soul-crushing loss to the Mariners. Howell has walked a batter in all four of his appearances this month, after issuing one free pass during the entire month of July. Recent struggles aside, J.P. has turned in an excellent 2009 season (10.54 K/9, with a 3.15 XFIP).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Think you had a bad week? Odds are, it was better than Bobby Jenks’. The Angels castoff hasn’t pitched since August 1st, as he deals with the excruciating pain caused by kidney stones. Jenks had a rough month of July (8 R, 13 H in 7.1 IP), but hopefully his struggles will, um, pass.

In the short-term, Matt Thornton or Octavio Dotel could pick up a save chance.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

The 6-3, 240 pound rookie picked up a save on July 31st vs. Toronto and collected another August 5th against the Rangers. Bailey doesn’t generate a ton of outside swings (his 25.2 O-Swing% is right around the MLB average). Instead, he uses his 94 MPH fastball, 90 MPH cutter and 78 MPH curveball to challenge (and pummel) hitters. Bailey has placed 53.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), and opponents have put the bat on the ball just 74.1% of the time on those offerings (the lowest rate among relievers).

David Aardsma, Mariners

The well-travelled Aardsma continued his charmed 2009 season, collecting a save vs. the Royals on August 4th and then striking out the side against Tampa Bay yesterday in a non-save situation. On the down side, the former Rice star has walked a batter in each of his last three appearances (taking him back up to 5.08 BB/9 for the year). However, Aardsma is punching out near 11 batters per nine innings. He has accumulated 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season, tied with Joe Nathan for the second-highest total among ‘pen arms. Aardsma’s career WAR total prior to ’09? 0.1.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After getting torched to end July (6 runs, 2 homers vs. the Indians on the 27th and 28th), Fuentes had plenty of time to recoup. He didn’t get into another game until August 5th, when he surrendered another run (and another dinger) against the White Sox. The port sider’s WPA sits at a modest 0.44 for the season, as hitters aren’t chasing his stuff off the plate as often (23 O-Swing%, down from a career-high 29.4% in 2008). Fuentes is having a hard time getting ahead of the opposition (his 53.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 5 percentage points below the MLB average), and when he does put a pitch in the zone, they’re doing a better job of making contact. Fuentes’ 86.3 Zone-Contact% is well above his 80.2% career average.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

According to manager Ron Washington, Francisco is officially the closer in Texas again (until he contracts the Bubonic Plague or has a Looney Tunes anvil fall on him, that is). In between three DL stints, Francisco has compiled a nifty 34/8 K/BB ratio, displaying a nasty splitter that has hitters eagerly fishing off the plate (28.4 Outside-Swing%, well above his 22.7% career average). Given Frank’s frequent medical mishaps, Wilson is well worth keeping.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood got walloped again on deadline day (2 R, 1 BB, 1 HR in a blown save op vs. Detroit), but he recovered to toss three clean frames to begin August (1 save, vs. Minnesota on the 6th). Kerry is still in the red in terms of WPA (-0.38), as opposing batters have chased just 19.5% of his pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Velocity sure isn’t the problem, as Wood has actually picked up steam as the year has progressed (he’s throwing his fastball at an average of 96.4 MPH this month). A 15.9 HR/FB rate has made Wood’s ERA (4.85) look worse than it should (his XFIP is 4.26). Still, that’s not what the Indians signed up for over the winter.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Perhaps feeling the effects of his aching toe, Downs was taken to the wood shed in late July and early August (8 R, 5 BB, 11 H in 5 IP from 7/21 to 8/1). The 33 year-old is back on the shelf now, leaving closing duties to Frasor. An undersized righty, Frasor possesses a deep mix of pitches (including a 94 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, and an 86 MPH changeup/splitter). He generally hasn’t gotten hitters to chase his stuff out of the zone (18.8 career O-Swing%) and has a walk rate around 3.9 per nine frames for his career. However, Frasor has parlayed an increase in outside hacks (25.1% in 2009) to a pared-down walk rate (2.33 BB/9).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

The 32 year-old Dominican Republic native began the 2009 campaign showing unusually sharp control (2.57 BB/9 in 21 frames in April and May), but Rodney has since returned to his heartburn-inducing ways (6 BB/9 in 27 IP since). And you wonder why Jim Leyland smokes three packs a day?

Rodney’s percentage of pitches within the strike zone has been better in August (51.1%), but his monthly totals nicely illustrate his deteriorating ability to locate:

Zone%, by month:

April: 58.7
May: 48.8
June: 45.0
July: 41.8

(the MLB average is 49.3%; Rodney’s career avg. is 50.8%)

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson had a sour run of appearances in late July (3.1 IP, 3 R, 2 HR from the 20th to the 28th), but he ended the month with a two-inning save. To begin August, the 6-5 right-hander has given up 1 run and a homer in three innings (he collected his 3rd save of the year vs. the Blue Jays yesterday). Johnson isn’t the worst option if you’re jonesing for saves. But, as a low-K closer on a talented-but-still-building O’s club, he’s also about as interesting as his name.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton pitched just once this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Brewers on August 5th. Battling through a big toe injury, the 25 year-old experienced a bumpier month of July (6 runs in 11 innings, with 7 BB’s). It could be a complete coincidence, but Broxton’s pitch usage did shift in July. He’s throwing his 98 MPH fastball about 71 percent of the time for the year, while mixing in an 88 MPH slider 26 percent (he also tosses a rare changeup). But in July, Jon used his fastball over 81 percent of the time, while breaking out the slider just 17 percent. Would a slider be more likely to cause discomfort for his busted digit?

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell worked a scoreless inning in a non-save situation vs. Milwaukee on July 31st, then racked up saves on August 1st vs. the Brewers and the 3rd against the Braves. Heath’s 2.83 Win Probability Added ranks 1st among all National League relievers, as he’s laying waste to opposing hitters by either blowing them away (10.59 K/9) or inducing a weak grounder (51 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street can’t be stopped right now. The former Athletic flummoxed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 2 H), and he started off August in style by whiffing two while getting another save vs. the Reds on the 2nd. Huston’s 5.3 K/BB ratio is a career high. Street’s 92 MPH fastball (+0.6 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH changeup (+0.23 runs/100) are faring well, but his sinister 85 MPH slider (+5.24 runs/100) has been death to batters.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected saves July 31st and August 3rd vs. the reeling Mets (no runs allowed). The sinker/slider righty notched another vs. Pittsburgh on the 5th, though the Bucs did manage to take him deep (Shane Spen…er Garrett Jones homered). Is Qualls morphing into a different type of reliever? His K rate is down, as is his walk rate. He’s putting more pitches in the zone, and opposing batters are connecting more often:

2007: 8.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 51.7 Zone%, 85.5 Z-Contact%
2008: 8.67 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 53.6 Zone%, 87.3 Z-Contact%
2009: 7.29 K/9, 0.99 BB/9, 54.6 Zone%, 89.9 Z-Contact%

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Back in familiar surroundings, Hoffman pitched a clean inning against the Padres in San Diego on August 2nd (a non-save op). Hell’s Bells picked up a save in his next appearance against the Dodgers the following night (though he did surrender a run), and then notched another on the 5th vs. L.A. Somehow, Hoffman has yet to be taken deep in 33 innings this season. Despite the microscopic ERA, Hoffman’s 2.7 K/BB ratio is actually his lowest mark since 1993 (a rookie season split between the Marlins and Padres).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod twirled a scoreless inning against Arizona on deadline day, then picked up a cheap 0.1 inning save vs. the D-Backs the following night. However, the Cardinals torched the first-year Met for 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk on August 4th. Rodriguez just hasn’t pitched all that well this season: his K/BB ratio is 1.85, and his XFIP is up yet again. The 27 year-old scarcely resembles the shut-down Angel of years past:

K-Rod’s XFIP by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.27

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got a save vs. the Dodgers on August 1st and pitched a scoreless inning against the Padres on the 5th, but his week took a sour turn yesterday in another tilt with L.A. Rafael was roped for 3 H and 3 R (including an Andre Ethier HR), and he took the loss as the Dodgers came back to win 5-4. Still, it’s hard to complain about his larger body of work: 12.06 K/9, with a 1.43 WPA.

Not that Soriano has problems with batters of either hand, but the Ethier bomb does make you wonder why manager Bobby Cox has stopped using he and Gonzalez based on matchups. Ethier has a pronounced platoon split during the course of career (.304/.377/.521 vs. RHP, .260/.320/.394 vs. LHP).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson worked twice this past week, notching a save vs. Philly on August 1st, then retiring one batter against the Astros on the 5th. The 27 year-old righty might not be an elite option, but he has made some legitimate progress this season. Wilson’s K rate (9.63) remains very close to last year’s mark, but he has lowered his rate of free passes issued from 4.04 in ’08 to 3.21 per nine in 2009. The mixture of K’s, grounders (50.4 GB%) and better control make Wilson a safe pick on a contending club.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde did collect two saves this week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he pitched well. Papa Grande gave up two runs in 3.2 innings, including a dinger to Matt Holliday. The 30 year-old has punched out 9.87 batters per nine innings during an injury-marred 2009 season. That’s still plenty good, but it is the 4th straight year in which his K rate has fallen. Valverde’s trademark splitter has still been nasty (+1.02 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but his mid-90’s gas (-0.64 runs/100) hasn’t been its usual dominant self (+1.07 runs/100 career). There’s an interesting trend going on with Jose fastball. He’s throwing it much less, and throwing it harder:

2006: used 84.4% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2007: used 77.8%, 93.4 MPH
2008: used 74.1%, 95.5 MPH
2009: used 65.0%, 95.4 MPH

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made just one appearance this week, chucking two scoreless innings against Colorado in an eventual extra-innings loss. Co-Co has a 1.70 ERA on the season, but his XFIP (4.01) tells a different story. The righty has posted his lowest full-season K rate (7.65) since 2000. A .238 BABIP and 4.9 HR/FB rate have hidden the overt signs of decline, but batters are making more contact and swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to confuse, with two more spotless innings to his ledger this week (one save, vs. Houston on July 31st). His 3.77 XFIP is over two runs higher than his actual ERA (1.70), as the crafty former starter has benefitted from a .242 BABIP and a microscopic 4.8 HR/FB rate. This has to end at some point, but Franklin and his half-dozen pitches sure are fun to watch.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The Mad Capper turned in a superb week. Capps collected a save versus the Nationals on July 31st, then tossed three more scoreless frames in two appearances against the Diamondbacks. In all, he punched out 8 batters in 4 innings, without walking anyone. While he’s still throwing a 93 MPH fastball about 70 percent of the time overall, Capps has increased the usage of his secondary pitches (an 84 MPH slider and a hard 87 MPH changeup). During that four-inning tear to begin August, the 25 year-old used his slider nearly 50 percent of the time. Capps’ K rate for the year (8.36) is well above his career mark (6.95).

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

The Fighting Irish alum threw two quiet innings this week, including a save vs. the Rockies yesterday. A positive development to be sure, but it’s just difficult to trust the guy as he battles a balky knee. His walk rate (5.4 per nine) remains stratospheric, and opposing hitters have made contact with 84.7% of pitches thrown within the zone (nearly 10 percent above his career mark).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Just when you thought it was safe to trust Gregg again, the bespectacled reliever goes out and coughs up 6 hits, 4 runs and three homers in his first two August appearances (1.1 innings vs. Florida). Gregg’s peripherals (9.24 K/9, 3.73 BB/9) aren’t all that bad, but a 15.2 HR/FB% (his career rate is 8.2%) has put a serious dent in the overall numbers. This is the sort of thing that can happen in the 60-80-some innings that a reliever tosses in any given season. Gregg is much the same guy he has always been (namely, a good middle reliever), but a few extra flyballs scrape over the fence and the season line looks crappy.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Fresh off a DL stint for an achy elbow, Lindstrom pitched two scoreless innings to begin the month. Uncharacteristically, he didn’t K or walk anyone in either appearance (Aug. 2 vs. the Cubs, Aug. 5th vs. the Nats). Matt’s velocity was down slightly (95.3 MPH), but that doesn’t seem like much of a concern. Of much greater importance is his placing his pitches better: Lindstrom’s walk rate sits at 5.81 per nine innings in 2009.

Mike MacDougal/Sean Burnett, Nationals

What a strange week, huh? MacDougal and the Nationals had three saves during the entire month of July, yet the transiently surging club has strung together five wins in a row (with four saves for Mac). Still, with a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 31 innings, MacDougal has been anything but a late-game stopper.

Check Back tomorrow for the A.L. Closer Report.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Nick Blackburn – Earlier this season, I highlighted Blackburn as a guy to sit due to his two road starts. Well, this week he has two home games. In the Metrodome, Blackburn is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP. Make sure he is active for his home games versus Kansas City and Cleveland.

Jorge de la Rosa – He got hammered in his last start in Philadelphia, where he gave up three HR in five innings. But de la Rosa was on fire prior to that, with Quality Starts in his previous six games. Another thing in de la Rosa’s favor this week is that he takes his 8.83 K/9 rate up against two teams in the top half of the league in strikeouts, including the Marlins, who lead the NL with 852 whiffs.

Kyle Lohse – Yes, it is hard to recommend a pitcher who just got roughed up by the Mets but that start was on the road. This week Lohse has two games in Busch Stadium, where he has a 2.98 ERA, a 1.059 WHIP and all four of his wins this season.

Marc Rzepczynski – Usually I hate those nicknames where you take a player’s first initial and then tag on the first few letters of his last name. But in Rzepczynski I think I am willing to make an exception. But keep M-Rzep on the bench this week. Yes, the ERA, K and WHIP all look good so far in his first six starts in the majors. But with road games this week at New York and at Tampa Bay, it is probably wise to get someone else in the lineup this week.

Jonathan Sanchez – Since returning to the rotation the second week of July following two outings in the bullpen, Sanchez has a 3-1 record and a 2.76 ERA in five games. He still has some gopher ball tendencies, but he faces the Dodgers (12th in NL in HR) and Mets (last in NL) this week, two teams not known for their power. Make sure he is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Harden, Jackson, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Danks, Happ, Volstad, Cook, Oswalt, Cueto, Pelfrey, Penny, Porcello, Lannan, Davis, Braden, Smoltz, Schmidt, Ohlendorf, Looper, Guthrie, Gaudin, Padilla, VandenHurk, Gorzelanny, Moehler, French, Laffey, Mitre, O’Sullivan, J. Vargas, Davies, Lehr, Boggs.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 17 and how they did.

Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.93 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)
Marquis – Advised to start. 3.46 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Saunders – Advised to sit. W, 6.55 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.00 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.67 WHIP (2)

When the season is over and people start producing Top Prospect rankings, Ike Davis will likely be in the middle of a top 100 list. That is not surprising for someone of his pedigree, a first-round pick in 2008, but it is nothing short of remarkable considering the start that Davis got off to in his professional debut.

On April 28th, of this season, Davis hit the first home run of his pro career. Up until that point he had been considered a bust. The Mets’ top draft pick last year, part of their reward for the Braves signing free agent Tom Glavine, they selected Davis for his power. Unfortunately, he went all 58 games he played last year and then 17 more in 2009 without putting a ball over the fence.

The lack of power was disturbing but the Mets remained bullish on Davis, no one more so than former Vice President of Player Development Tony Bernazard, who told Baseball America, “He’s coming along well for a player in his first full year. He’s a great defender and we believe he’ll hit for power. You can see it in how he’s hit a lot of doubles. And the best part is, he’s kept up while playing in every game.”

Starting on April 29th, Davis has hit 15 HR in 79 games. He started the year at St. Lucie in the Hi-A Florida State League and was promoted to Double-A (where you really want to see a collegiate first-round pick in his first full season in the minors) after he posted a .288/.376/.486 line in 59 games.

Facing more advanced pitching has not slowed Davis down any. After 40 games in the Double-A Eastern League, Davis has a .299/.379/.519 mark, with 8 HR in 154 at-bats. However, here we must remember park and league tendencies.

The Florida State League is a pitcher-friendly loop. Currently Chris Parmelee leads the league with 14 HR and Dominic Brown’s .517 is the top slugging mark. In the Eastern League Brennan Boesch has 24 HR and Brian Dopirak leads with a .576 slugging percentage. Furthermore, Binghamton is a good hitter’s park. From 2006-2008, Dan Szymborski had Binghamton with a 1.05 HR multiplier. Szymborski says, “when I use the term ‘multiplier’ I’m already taking into account road games, so the number does not have to sent hurdling halfway to 1.00 in order to apply to various minor league stats.”

Davis is playing better at his home park, but not to an alarming degree. Here are his home/road splits:

H – .308/.386/.538 with 4 HR in 78 ABs
R – .289/.372/.500 with 4 HR in 76 ABs

The lefty-swinging Davis does have a significant left/right split. This year at Binghamton it breaks down as follows:

LHP – .241/.317/.296 in 54 ABs
RHP – .330/.412/.640 in 100 ABs

Additionally, all eight of his HR have come versus RHP.

Davis also has both a high K% and an elevated BABIP. His 30.1 K percentage ranks 14th among all Eastern League players with at least 100 ABs and his .383 BABIP ranks eighth.

But after he put up a .652 OPS in rookie ball, these are welcome concerns. Coming into the year, Davis could not crack Baseball America’s Top 10 prospect list for the Mets (interestingly compiled by Adam Rubin), finishing behind Eddie Kunz, whose upside is seventh-inning set-up man. It was a scathing indictment of Davis’ pro debut.

But in a season where everything has gone wrong on the major league level, the Mets can at least take solace in the development of Davis. The 22-year old now has to be considered as a potential replacement for Carlos Delgado at first base, giving hope that the club can avoid the free agent route when they opt to replace their aging slugger.