Archive for June, 2009

Week 10 Trade Possibilities

Hopefully you were able to pick up Gavin Floyd and trade Mark DeRosa last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ian Stewart – Last year Stewart had a .364 BABIP in the majors. This year he checks in with a .244 mark in the category, so there is a lot of room for growth in his low average. Obviously, he cannot keep up his insane power numbers, either the .286 ISO or the 21.6 percent HR/FB. But Stewart has claimed a full-time job, has cut down some on his strikeouts from last year and either has or is on the doorstep to eligibility at both 2B and 3B depending on your league format. And if you think he is simply a Coors Field product, Stewart is batting just .120 with only four of his 11 HR in his home park.

Scott Baker – Yes, the home runs are absolutely killing him. Hopefully, his 2.26 HR/9 rate will fall significantly. But even with that HR rate, his FIP is lower than his ERA and the 64.2 percent strand rate shows he has had some bad luck, too. And his WHIP and K numbers are already solid.

Laynce Nix – In the early part of the decade, Nix was one of the top prospects in baseball. John Sickels called him “a potential Seven Skill player” following the 2002 season and Baseball America ranked him on their Top 100 Prospect List (85) following the 2003 campaign. And then the injuries started piling up. Now Nix is finally healthy, getting playing time and producing. The AVG is as high as it is going to get but anyone looking for a cheap source of power should invest here. The updated ZiPS projection shows him finishing with 21 HR in 362 AB and he is likely to get more playing time than that.

Mike MacDougal – The one-time Kansas City closer is now the closer in Washington. There is no guarantee as to how long he will have the job, but Joel Hanrahan has already lost the position twice. Owned in fewer than two percent of ESPN leagues, MacDougal could be an easy source of saves.

Trade

Michael Young – It is time to look to sell high on Young. He has great stats, name recognition and multiple position eligibility, so there should be no problem finding a taker. He also has a .361 BABIP and a career-best .200 ISO, thanks in large part to a HR/FB mark of 14.3 percent, also a career-best and virtually double the mark he posted in 2008.

Erik Bedard – Another sell-high candidate, Bedard has pitched great this season. But his FIP is a run higher than his ERA and his 83.6 percent strand rate is the seventh-highest mark in the majors. Like Young, Bedard should still be a valuable fantasy player even if/when regression hits. Trading them now is just trying to maximize their value and not any indictment of their skills.

Mike Lowell – A hot start by Lowell, combined with an injury to Jed Lowrie and the decline of David Ortiz, has caused the 35-year-old third baseman to play 55 of the first 57 games for the Red Sox. In his first 30 games, Lowell batted .314 with six HR in 117 AB. Since then he is batting .275 with three HR in 102 AB. That could easily be random fluctuation. But combined with the collapse of his walk rate, a career-low 3.9 percent, following back-to-back years of 8.3 percent, it may be a more ominous sign.

Josh Outman – The production of the A’s young pitching staff has been a wonderful story the past few weeks. Unfortunately, Outman’s peripherals do not match his 4-0 record nor his 3.17 ERA. His FIP checks in at 4.20 and as you might guess, his BABIP is .246 and his strand rate is 74.8 percent.

Derrek Lee – A hot streak the last three weeks, in which Lee hit .364, has his AVG for the season up to .262 after it was beneath the Mendoza Line in mid-May. But Lee is still hitting for even less power than he did the past two seasons. ZiPS now forecasts him to finish the year with 17 HR. And the SB which helped prop up his value last year are missing, too. Lee currently has zero steals.


Stock Watch:6/8

Stock Up

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians

Pilfered from the Mariners in the summer of 2006 for the low, low price of Ben Broussard (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, too? You’re the best, Mr. Bavasi!), Choo is quietly raking in Cleveland. The 26 year-old South Korean hit a searing .309/.397/.549 (.402 wOBA) in 2008, and he has followed that up with a .298/.410/.468 line (.398 wOBA) in 2009. Mr. Choo is drawing walks at a 15.3% clip, the 17th-highest rate among qualified batters. He might not show a whole lot of sock versus southpaws (career .387 SLG% vs. LHP), but Choo crushes righties (.515).

Jon Lester, Red Sox

Lester’s early season “struggles” appeared to be more the product of poor luck on balls in play and a sky-high HR/FB rate, and sure enough, the 25 year-old lefty has been dealing lately. Lester punched out 12 batters versus the Blue Jays on May 31st, and followed that up with 11 whiffs against the Rangers on June 6th. His K rate sits at a whopping 10.29 per nine innings, 5th among starting pitchers. Jon’s 89 MPH cutter has been devastating, with a +2.22 run value per 100 pitches.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Jackson’s improvement from strong-armed enigma to polished pitcher has been stunning. His K/BB ratio, just 1.4 last season, is up to 3.26. His FIP (3.10) is boosted by a low HR rate (0.54 per nine innings), but his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s, and a normalized HR/FB rate) is a still-solid 4.35. Jackson has been getting it done with a 94 MPH heater (+1.42 runs per 100 pitches), an 86 MPH slider (+1.33) and the rare 85.5 MPH changeup (+0.78).

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

All of the sudden, Andy looks an awful lot like the highly-touted youngster the Pirates thought they were receiving last summer. His introduction to the ‘Burgh was turbulent, but the former Dodgers prospect is batting .301/.372/.420, with a .356 wOBA. LaRoche will likely never be a huge over-the-fence threat, but his combination of plate discipline and doubles power could prove mighty valuable to the Bucs.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

Floyd has been on a roll, with 31 K’s and 7 runs allowed in his last 29.2 innings. While Gavin’s ERA far surpassed his peripherals in 2008, it’s been the opposite story in 2009. Floyd’s ERA sits at an abominable 5.35, but his FIP is pretty good at 3.91. The 26 year-old righty has increased his strikeout rate from 6.32 to 8.03, though he hasn’t hit his spots as well (3.77 BB/9 in 2009, 3.05 in 2008).

Stock Down

Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Wandy has been bushwhacked over his past three starts, coughing up 18 runs in 13.2 frames. After giving up just one round-tripper during his first 11 starts, Rodriguez was taken deep on four occasions against the Rockies on June 4th. His numbers for the year are still solid (3.15 FIP, 8.55 K/9), but his vaunted curveball was absolutely crushed against Colorado (-3.1 runs for the evening).

CC Sabathia, Yankees

A less-than-optimal CC is still better than 95% of the pitchers in the majors, but New York’s new ace hasn’t quite been himself in 2009. CC’s K rate checks in at just 6.38 per nine innings, down considerably from his 8.93 mark in 2008 and his 7.5 career average. Opposing batters aren’t fishing at Sabathia’s sliders and changeups off the plate, with a 26.1 Outside-Swing% that’s nearly 6 percent lower than in 2008. Again, he’s been pretty darned good (3.76 FIP), and if he were just about any hurler, we’d all be saying he was turning in a nice season. It’s just that we have come to expect greatness from Sabathia.

Corey Hart, Brewers

Hart’s three-year slide continues. After posting a .380 wOBA in 2007, the lanky, tattooed right fielder posted a .327 mark in 2008 and just .309 this season. Over that same time period, Hart’s ISO has plummeted from .244 in ’07 to .191 in 2008 and just .150 in 2009. Hart isn’t chasing as many pitches off the plate this season (24.8 O-Swing%, compared to 31.7% last year), but he’s also whiffing at a career-high 27.2% clip with a career-worst contact rate (71.5%; 80.6% MLB average).

Manny Parra, Brewers

Coming off of a 2008 season in which he struck out 7.86 batters per nine innings with a 4.16 FIP, Parra looked like an intriguing, covert pitcher to target. Unfortunately, his already-scattershot control has taken another step backward: after issuing 4.07 BB/9 in ’08, the 26 year-old port-sider has walked 5.43 per nine innings in 2009. Only Fausto Carmona (currently plying his trade in Rookie Ball) has a higher rate of free passes among starters.

Bengie Molina, Giants

What happens when a guy who never walks doesn’t have those base hits fall in? Just ask the eldest Molina brother. Bengie enjoyed a piping hot April (.913 OPS and a .328 BABIP), but he fell apart in May (.559 OPS, .189 BABIP) and is off the a rough start in June (.606 OPS). Molina makes plenty of contact and he has ample pop for a backstop, but batting average-dependent players can go through stretches like this. When the hits aren’t falling, there’s nothing to fall back on.


Week 10 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Billingsley
NYY – Burnett
SD – C. Young
TB – Sonnanstine
DET – Bonderman
BAL – Bergesen
STL – B. Thompson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Lohse
NYY – Wang
TB – Niemann
DET – Willis
BAL – D. Hernandez

Billingsley has pitched at least six innings in each of his 12 outings this year and has 11 Quality Starts. The Dodgers have also supported him well offensively, averaging 5.11 runs per game in his starts.

Burnett went seven straight games without a win before earning a W in his last two outings. It has been tough going for Burnett in his first season in pinstripes. His K/9 are down, his BB/9 are up and his HR/9 have nearly doubled. A groundball pitcher throughout his career, Burnett has a 0.96 GB/FB ratio in 2009.

Young has two road starts this week. In Petco Park, Young is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. On the road he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP.

Sonnanstine’s FIP stands at 2.08 lower than his ERA. But his FIP still checks in at an ugly 4.99, over a full run higher than it was a year ago. All of his numbers are worse than they were a year ago. He has allowed five or more runs in five of his 11 starts this year.

Bonderman will make his 2009 debut after being on the disabled list since last June due to surgery to repair a blood clot in his axillary vein. He made four starts in the minors, three at Triple-A. In his last outing he pitched eight shutout innings with six hits, no walks and five strikeouts.

Bergesen is a groundball specialist. His 2.09 GB/FB rate would rank sixth, just behind Derek Lowe, if he had enough innings to qualify. Bergesen has done a good job of giving the Orioles a chance to win, only once in nine outings giving up more runs than innings pitched. His last two outings have been Quality Starts.

Thompson made his first start of the year on June 2nd after nine relief appearances. A curve ball specialist, Thompson relies on control and keeping the ball in the park in order to be successful.


Kelvim’s Comeback

Remember Kelvim Escobar? The last time the Venezuelan and his expansive arsenal of pitches took a big league mound was September 29, 2007 against the Oakland A’s. Escobar picked up the win that day (his 18th of the year), a fitting end to his finest season in the rotation. Escobar posted a tidy 3.39 FIP, befuddling batters with any of his six pitches. Unfortunately, Kelvim was damaged goods by that point. Shoulder surgery wiped out his entire 2008 campaign.

After continuing his rehab during the first two months of the 2009 season, Escobar was back on the bump last night against the Detroit Tigers. While the now-33 year-old righty came up on the short end against a rapidly improving Edwin Jackson, Escobar’s stuff was not lacking.

According to 2007 pitch data, Escobar kept hitters up at night wondering whether they would get his 94 MPH fastball (thrown 51.7% of the time). Or his 86 MPH slider (11.3%). Or 88 MPH cutter (4.1%), 81 MPH curve (9%), 85 MPH changeup (12.5%), or 87 MPH splitter (11.4%). You get the point: he had plenty of tricks in his bag.

Courtesy of the Brooks Baseball Pitch F/X Tool (an amazing resource that slices and dices Pitch F/X data for each appearance), we can take a gander at what a post-surgical Escobar offered the Tigers. According to Pitch F/X, he displayed a 93.9 MPH heater (thrown on 55 of his 92 pitches, or 59.8%), an 84 MPH changeup (32.6%) and a 78.7 MPH curveball (7.6%). In all probability, the Pitch F/X algorithm classified some splitters as changeups and some sliders as curves, but this gives us a decent idea of what he had last night.

Working 5 innings, Escobar punched out 5 batters while showing a highly consistent release point (graph from Brooks Baseball):

kelvimrelease6-6-09

However, he also struggled to hit his spots, issuing 4 free passes and tossing 51 of his 92 pitches for strikes (55.4%). Escobar’s hopping fastball had 5.18 inches of horizontal movement in on the hands of righty batters, with 10.28 inches of vertical break compared to a pitch thrown without spin. For reference, the average righty fastball in 2009 has shown 6 inches of tailing action and 8.8 inches of vertical break. Maxing out at 95.5 MPH, Escobar tossed his fastball for a strike 32 out of 55 times (58.2%).

Escobar’s changeup showed similar horizontal movement to his fastball, while dropping a little more than 2 inches further in the zone. His control of the pitch came and went, as he tossed 16 of 30 for a strike (53.3%). Judging from this movement graph, Escobar threw a handful of splitters, with nearly a half-foot of difference in vertical drop compared to his fastball (similar to his numbers from 2007):

kelvimmovement6-6-09

Escobar didn’t throw many breaking pitches, with 3 of his 7 breaking balls going for a strike (42.9%). The pitch didn’t show very much horizontal break (0.7 inches away from righty batters), with about three and a half inches of vertical drop.

Overall, the Angels and fantasy owners have to be pretty pleased with Escobar’s first outing. While subsequent starts will tells us whether or not he can sustain his stuff, Kelvim’s fastball showed plenty of bite. His changeup and splitter displayed similar movement and velocity to his 2007 campaign, if not the same level of control and command. That’s a big plus, given that those off-speed pitches play a prominent role in his pitch selection: while Escobar’s fastball has been worth -0.80 runs per 100 pitches since the 2002 season, his change (+2.02) and splitter (+2.40) have often left opponents looking silly. If Escobar happens to be available in your league, snatch him up. It’s anyone’s guess if he can remain healthy, but his stuff has come off the operating table none the worse for wear.


Outman To The Rescue?

The Oakland Athletics are in a state of turmoil. The denizens of the Coliseum growing uneasy: the A’s are lackluster in the batter’s box (last in team wOBA), and in the starting rotation (25th in FIP, as a talented group of rookies take their lumps). With Oakland in need of a hero, Josh Outman has come to the rescue.

A 24 year-old southpaw known for his strange, superhuman mechanics in high school, Outman’s origins take us to Central Missouri State. Plying his trade for the Division II Mules, he was selected in the 10th round of the 2005 amateur draft by the Phillies. Outman proved to be a bargain at that spot, displaying unmatched feats of strength for Team USA in the 2007 World Cup by punching out 10 during a gold medal run.

Equipped with a sizzling low-90’s fastball, an at-times nasty slider and a changeup, Outman oscillated between the rotation and the ‘pen. He often overmatched his opponents (career 8.7 K/9 in the minors), but walks were his kryptonite (4.3 BB/9). The Phillies, desperate for a starter, parted with Outman (as well as middle infield prospect Adrian Cardenas and OF/1B Matthew Spencer) in order to acquire Joe Blanton last summer.

The 6-1, 190 pounder made 6 appearances (4 starts) for the A’s after that swap, posting a 3.33 FIP. In 2009, Outman has compiled a mighty 3.02 ERA in 11 appearances (9 starts). So, will Outman continue to save the troubled city of Oakland, or will his powers evaporate?

Showcasing a deep repertoire (a 93 MPH fastball, 82 MPH slider, 77 MPH curve and an 82 MPH changeup), Outman has punched out 7.04 batters per nine innings. His control, while not poor, is still occasionally a problem (3.69 BB/9, with 47.7% of his pitches catching the plate; the MLB average is 49.1%).

An extreme flyball pitcher (34 GB%), Outman has surrendered 1.17 homers per nine innings, and he has benefitted from a .242 BABIP. While his ERA looks outstanding, his FIP checks in at a useful-but-not-superhuman 4.50.

While he’s not likely to continue posting an ERA in the low-three’s, there’s a good deal to like about Outman. A lefty who cooks on an open flame, Outman also possesses two quality offspeed offerings: his slider has been worth a superb +4.70 runs per 100 pitches, while his changeup has been +1.42 runs per 100 tosses.

Outman could stand to hit his spots more consistently, but his current package of skills makes him an intriguing pickup in all formats. He’s not this good, but Outman would garner more attention on a club that didn’t have such an embarrassment of mound talent. Perhaps he’s not the hero, but Josh is a worthy member of Oakland’s League of Extraordinary Pitching Prospects.


Russell Martin’s Minuscule Pop

Los Angeles Dodgers backstop Russell Martin is in the midst of one serious power outage. The last time Martin went deep? Try September 26th, 2008 against the San Francisco Giants. While the 26 year-old Canadian has never been known for possessing immense strength in the batter’s box, he did reach the double-digits in dingers in each of his first three seasons in the majors.

Making his big league debut back in 2006, Martin slugged .436, with a .154 Isolated Power and 10 home runs in 468 plate appearances. The following year, he popped 19 homers in 620 plate appearances. Martin slugged .469, and his .176 ISO placed 4th among qualifying catchers.

In 2008, Martin took a step back in the power department, with a .116 ISO, a .396 slugging percentage and 13 jacks in 650 plate appearances. While that output seemed disappointing given his work the previous season, it looks downright Josh Gibson-like compared to his tepid line in 2009.

With a microscopic .050 ISO, Martin bests only San Francisco’s Emmanuel Burriss among qualified hitters. He’s shown less punch than Emilio Bonifacio (.053 ISO), Jason Kendall (.053) and Luis Castillo (.054), for crying out loud. Martin’s eye remains sharp (13.9 BB%), but the utter lack of extra-base hits has sapped his offensive value. After posting a .368 wOBA in 2007, Martin has seen that figure dip to .351 in 2008 and just .321 this season.

So, what in the name of Vin Scully is going on here? Since that high-water mark back in ’07, Martin has increasingly become more of a groundball-oriented batter:

2007: 48.4 GB%, 1.42 GB/FB ratio
2008: 51.1 GB%, 1.73 GB/FB
2009: 52.8 GB%, 2.03 GB/FB

When Martin broke into the big leagues, he was an exceptionally athletic catcher. In many respects, the converted third baseman resembled an early-career version of Jason Kendall: he had on-base skills, some degree of lightning in his bat, and was surprisingly fleet of foot. Martin posted a Speed Score of 5.3 as a rookie in 2006, and a 5.2 mark in 2007 (the major league average hovers around 5.1 to 5.2). In 2008, that mark fell to 4.0, and sits at just 3.6 in 2009.

So, Martin is chopping the ball into the dirt with greater frequency, while not showing the same set of wheels that he possessed a few seasons back. Martin’s speed did not manifest itself on groundballs hit during the 2006 campaign (.199 batting average on grounders, compared to the .234 N.L. average), but he beat out quite a few worm-killers in 2007 (.275 AVG on groundballs; .245 NL average) and 2008 (.281 for Russell, .231 NL average). This season, Martin has a .240 average on grounders, while hitting them at the highest rate of his career (.236 NL average).

Donning the tools of ignorance, Martin’s body takes a beating each and every night he squats behind home plate. Despite his relative youth, LA’s catcher is closing in on 4,000 career innings at the position, with 459 games under his belt.

That’s quite the workload. According to Baseball-Reference, Martin is one of only four catchers 26 years old or younger to appear in 400+ games during the first three seasons of his career (Kendall is also on the list). Kendall, you’ll recall, saw his power peak in his mid-20’s (with slugging percentages of .473, .511 and .470 from ages 24-26 during the 1999-2001 seasons). Since then, he has topped the .400 mark just once. His Speed Scores followed a similar arc to Martin’s: downright blazing in ’99 (7.3 Speed Score), Kendall was down to the four range by 2001, and dipped into the three’s by the time 2003 rolled around. His groundball rates increased as well.

None of this is to say Martin is doomed; Kendall turned in a couple of valuable seasons in 2003 and 2004 with a similarly keen batting eye. Also, his loss of speed could have been influenced by a nasty ankle injury suffered in ’99 on top of the heavy workload as a youngster. But the two do share some interesting similarities, in terms of being abnormally agile for the position, enduring a heavy workload at a young age, and subsequently losing that extra gear on the wheels. Martin is just entering what are typically the peak years of a player’s career, but might we have seen his best already?


Interesting Week 10 Two-Start Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Brett Anderson – He has won three of his last four starts. The rookie is coming off his best outing of the season, when he threw seven shutout innings against the White Sox in Chicago. A poor strand rate of 60.6 percent has helped keep Anderson’s overall numbers down this year. He is owned in only 1.1 percent of ESPN leagues and is a good candidate to add for this week and his two starts.

Scott Feldman – After making three appearances out of the bullpen to start the season, Feldman moved into the starting rotation and is 5-0 since then with five consecutive Quality Starts. He has been lucky with his BABIP (.241) and strand rate (74.7) but I like his chances to keep it up at home versus a struggling Toronto team with just three wins in their last 15 games and in an Interleague game against the Dodgers.

J.A. Happ – After replacing Chan Ho Park in the rotation, Happ ripped off three straight wins, raising his record to 4-0 on the year. But Happ has been even more fortunate than Feldman, with a .210 BABIP and an 82 percent strand rate. And with tough matchups versus Johan Santana and Josh Beckett this week, so it might be a good week to sit the lefty.

Andy Pettitte – The overall numbers look okay but after beginning the season with three Quality Starts, Pettitte has posted a 5.13 ERA and a 1.817 WHIP in his last eight games. Additionally, Pettitte has allowed seven of his eight home runs this year in Yankee Stadium and has two home games this week, one of them against the Rays, who are third in the AL in homers. Give Pettitte the week off.

Jason Vargas – There’s an old saying that goes it’s better to be lucky than good. Vargas has definitely been lucky this year with a 96.8 percent strand rate. With two road starts this week – a cross country trek to Baltimore followed by a trip to Colorado – my guess is this is the week the luck runs out.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Carpenter, Beckett, Shields, J. Johnson, Je. Weaver, Lowe, Peavy, Lee, Lilly, Buehrle, Cueto, Duke, R. Johnson, Baker, Outman, Marquis, Lohse, Richard, Wang, Tallet, Zimmerman, Garland, McCarthy, Galarraga, Kawakami, Ohlendorf, Niemann, Looper, Bannister, Willis, D. Hernandez, Swarzak, West, Moehler, Buckner, Janssen, Hammel.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 8 and how they did.

Carmona – Advised to sit. 5 K, 15.19 ERA, 3.56 WHIP (2 starts)
Kazmir – Advised to sit. Went on DL after column was published
Maine – Advised to start. 2 W, 9 K, 0.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Marshall – Advised to start. W, 8 K, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. W, 12 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.41 WHIP (2)


More Rookies in the Bullpen: Jess Todd

With young pitchers Jason Motte and Chris Perez already filling important roles in the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen, the club has turned to another highly-rated relief prospect. Right-hander Jess Todd was promoted to The Show yesterday.

The 23-year-old hurler was the club’s second round draft pick out of the University of Arkansas in 2007. Todd flew through the minors and posted an overall ERA of just 2.87 in 235.2 innings of work. He spent time in college – as well as the low minors – as both a reliever and starter, but his approach and stuff is best-suited to relief work, which is the role he fulfilled at triple-A in 2009.

Todd allowed just 18 hits and seven walks (2.59 BB/9) in 24.1 innings of work this year. Opponents mustered just one home run (0.37 HR/9) against the hard-throwing reliever and struck out 32 times (11.84 K/9). Right-handed batters were hitting just .130 against Todd at triple-A, although lefties were hitting .297. His career splits are similar: .190 vs right-handed batters, .250 vs left-handed batters.

Todd is a sinker/slider pitcher, who can reach back and touch 94 mph with his fastball when he needs a little extra juice. His best pitch is his cutter, which is also the newest pitch in his arsenal. He’s done a good job of inducing ground balls with his sinker (career 50 GB%), and he has also limited the number of line drives hit against him (14%). Although he does not touch the mid-to-high 90s with has fastball like a lot of closers, Todd has the potential to be a dominating late-game reliever because of his combination of command/control, the movement on the cutter, and his ground-ball tendencies.

Here is a snippet from Todd’s 2007 pre-draft scouting report from Baseball America:

[Todd] opened the spring as the Razorbacks’ closer, and scouts envision him as a late-inning reliever in pro ball. Todd’s size (6 feet, 213 pounds) and violent delivery lend themselves more to that role, though he has shown a deep repertoire, command and durability as a college starter. His competitive nature will help succeed in either capacity.

With Motte (age 26) and Perez (23) also in the bullpen, the Cardinals organization has makings of a talented 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the bullpen, which could remain dominant for many years, barring injury.


Fringe Options

Not all of us are looking to sell high and buy low right now. Some of us are just looking for help – any help at all – off the wire. And if you’re in an NL-only, AL-only, or even a 20-team, MI/CI, 5 OF and 2 UTIL league (yeah, that one is fun), you’re looking for any guy that might take the job and start for a while.

Let’s take a look at some of these fringe options. Every once in a while, the ‘first guy off the bench’ can really do some damage in these deeper leagues.

Edwin Maysonet
– His speed is the only skill he has that registers as decent on the scouting scale, and his contact and patience are both below average. About what you’d expect from a middle infielder with a minor league career .259/.338/.384 slash line. But you know what? He’s hot. After hitting .271/.343/.379 in his second year at AAA last year, he earned seven at-bats in the majors and got one hit. Repeating seems to work for him, as he’s currently hot in his second try at the major leagues after putting up a batting-average heavy .309/.417/.395 at AAA in his third try at the level. Of course, his current BABIP (over .400) has a lot to do with it. Why not get some stats out of the young guy, though – it’s not like 33-year-olds with injury-riddled histories come back quickly from bad hammies. (Yes Kaz Matsui, I’m looking in your direction. How’s the couch feeling?)

Jonny Gomes – The good news about Gomes is that he’s actually bettered his strikeout percentage over the last three years. Of course, he started at a Russell-Branyan
-esque 36%, and he may have made some of his gains by being reduced to a part-time role (his .219/.309/.425 slash line versus righties is just ugly, and he had twice as many at-bats against lefties as righties last year). On the other hand, Ramon Hernandez
is brittle enough – why push him with more at-bats at first base? While starter Joey Votto is out with his mysterious stress-related illness, someone has to play first. When that someone is Gomes, versus a lefty, take advantage of that .271/.371/.512 slash line against southpaws.

Sean RodriguezHowie Kendrick is struggling. Despite being a .294 hitter in a career 300 games, the fact that he has never even put together 400 plate appearances in a single season makes everyone wary. Are his current struggles injury related? Or, as the low .262 BABIP (career .346) suggests, just luck related? He really needs to start hitting better than 12% line drives, and his upside seemingly belongs along side the other high-contact-rate low-pop second basemen like Robinson Cano and Placido Polanco. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is showing mighty power for a second baseman. His .279/.364/.637 slash line shows isolated power that is well above his career .494 slugging percentage in the minors, but right in line with his .645 slugging percentage from last year. Guess he likes Salt Lake City and its 1.16 park factor for home runs in 2008. If the team gets tired of Kendrick, or – gasp – he gets hurt again, Rodriguez is worth a long look.

Ryan Roberts – With all the first basemen in Arizona hurt (what’s in that water?), Roberts has found his way into some at-bats over the past week-plus. This former shortstop’s defense is above-average, so he probably has a chance of sticking as the corner infielder, at least until even Tony Clark is back. Roberts has always been a power-and-patience guy and his major league strikeout percentage (29.8%) is not in line with his minor league one (19.8%). This year, he’s got that number down to 23.9%, which bodes well for his offense. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .471 and ZiPS pegs him for a reasonable .256/.328/.380 finish. There’s not much to like here, since the team has decided that Mark Reynolds is a fine solution at the hot corner despite his poor defense.


Minor Impacts: June 4

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

We’re changing things up this week in honor of the first Minor Impacts report of the month. Today’s posting will look at a group of players that received a call-up to the Majors, or were involved in a trade, in the past two days.

Gordon Beckham: The White Sox organization has promoted a few rookies to the big league club in recent days (including LHP Wes Whisler, who could be the next Micah Owings, given his college hitting skills). Beckham, though, is the club’s top prospect and was its first-round selection from the 2008 draft. Signed as a shortstop, he showed the ability to handle third base, which encouraged the big league club to promote him to the Majors. Beckham began the 2009 season in double-A and hit .299/.366/.497 in 38 games. He then spent just six games in triple-A (.458 average) before receiving the call to the Majors. His home run power is not fully developed yet – he had just four homers in double-A, but 17 doubles – so Beckham may show below-average power for a third baseman early on in his career. He can also be a little too aggressive at the plate at times, so big-league pitchers may exploit that weakness. Long-term, though, he has solid potential as either a third baseman or a shortstop and could quickly become the face of the franchise and the team’s leader.

Andrew McCutchen: Well it’s about time. I have been calling for this promotion since the beginning of the season when McCutchen was demoted to triple-A for a second straight year. It’s a little surprising, though, that the organization chose to trade off incumbent center-fielder Nate McLouth, rather than shift him (or McCutchen) to right field. Regardless, the rookie is now where he belongs – in the Majors… even if the club somehow managed to weaken itself in the process (In classic Pittsburgh fashion, of course). McCutchen was hitting .303/.361/.493 with four home runs and 10 stolen bases in 49 games. The 22-year-old outfielder does not walk a ton, but he’s also trimmed his strikeout rate to about 11% in 2009. He has the potential to hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and 30-40 steals in a full MLB season. He also plays above-average defense in the outfield.

Tommy Hanson: Hanson is another top prospect who was fully deserving of this opportunity, which probably could (should) have come sooner. The Braves effectively released 300-winner Tom Glavine to make room for the next generation. An argument could be made for Hanson being the best pitching prospect in baseball, but his name is definitely in the Top 3-5 pitching prospects, along with southpaws David Price and Madison Bumgarner. Hanson had a breakout 2008 season and got even better in 2009 while opening the year in triple-A. Last season, the right-hander dominated in high-A ball for seven games (0.90 ERA) before receiving a promotion to double-A. There, Hanson allowed just 70 hits in 98 innings of work and struck out 114 batters. He did, though, struggle with his control to a degree and he walked 41 batters (3.77 BB/9). Hanson then pitched in the Arizona Fall League and dominated some of the best prospects in the game. This year, Hanson had a 1.49 ERA in 11 starts. He allowed 40 hits and 17 walks (2.31 BB/9) in 66.1 innings of work. He also struck out 90 hitters (12.21 K/9). Hanson’s repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup. With the strides he’s made in the past year, he has the potential to be a No. 1 starter.

The Nate McLouth Loot: In a surprise trade, the Pirates tossed quality outfielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for two good, but not great, prospects: outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and LHP Jeff Locke, and one OK young MLB-ready pitcher (who was pitching at triple-A): Charlie Morton. Hernandez, who was originally acquired from Detroit (along with Jair Jurrjens) in the Edgar Renteria deal, is a speedy, toolsy outfielder. He was playing in double-A ball with mixed results. His triple-slash line looks pretty good on the batting-average side: .316/.361/.387, but 15 walks in 212 at-bats (6.6 BB%) bites into the on-base percentage. He also has not hit a home run in 2009, after hitting just five in 100 games last year in high-A ball. So, obviously, Hernandez’ game is built around speed. At this point, it does not look like he’ll get on-base enough to be an impact player at the MLB level. He’s also stolen just 10 bases in 18 attempts this season, so he needs to work on becoming a better base runner to take advantage of the speed. He stolen 54 bases in 2007, but that total dropped to 20 in 2008 (although he was caught just four times). Defensively, he’s a very good center fielder. But with McCutchen now in the Majors in center, Hernandez does not profile well at all in a corner outfield spot (and neither does McCutchen).

Locke probably has the greatest potential amongst the three players acquired from the Braves. With that said, though, he’s also still fairly raw as a 2006 second round draft pick out of a New Hampshire high school. The southpaw currently has a 5.52 ERA (but 3.64 FIP) in high-A ball. He’s allowed 47 hits in 45.2 innings of work. Locke is also struggling with his control (5.12 BB/9), although it has been a strong suit of his in the past. He’s struck out 43 batters (8.47 K/9) this year. Locke instantly becomes the best left-handed pitching prospect in the Pirates system with a low-90s fastball, good curve and developing changeup. He’s probably two years away from the Majors and a lot can go wrong with young pitching in that time frame. Locke projects to top out as a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

Morton is the only player headed to Pittsburgh that has any MLB experience. He received a desperation call to the Majors in 2008 and was hit around. He posted a 6.15 ERA and allowed 80 hits with 41 walks in 74.2 innings of work. In 2009, Morton had obviously slid down the Braves’ depth chart as he was passed over for a MLB promotion on a few occasions despite posting solid numbers. The right-hander had a 2.51 ERA and had allowed 52 hits in 64.2 innings of work. His rates were solid at 2.23 BB/9 and 7.65 K/9. Despite being a third-round pick out of a New Jersey high school in 2002, Morton has never been considered amongst the Braves’ top prospects. His fastball averages out around 90 mph and he also has a good breaking ball and a changeup that has improved over the years. He could very well end up in the Pirates’ rotation within a month, given the current state of affairs.