Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Kosuke Fukudome for Justin Upton trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jose Guillen – Much like Raul Ibanez, Guillen goes through streaks where he just crushes the ball. In 2008 he had a 31-game stretch where he batted .369 with 8 HR and 29 RBIs. In 2007 he had a 53-game stretch where he batted .336 with 10 HR and 42 RBIs. He was hurt in 2006 but in 2005 he had a 30-game stretch where he batted .327 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs. So what, you may be thinking, you can find lots of guys with streaks like that if you cherry pick the end points. Well, how many of those guys are likely to be on the waiver wire or not valued highly by their current owners? Guillen spent a couple of weeks on the disabled list but now looks like he’s going on one of those hot spells. Get him and enjoy a month of great production at very little cost to you.

Cliff Lee – Okay, with a 1-4 record and an ERA approaching four, Lee is not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. But his peripherals show a pitcher who should be solid from here on out. Lee has a 2.80 K/BB ratio, his HR/9 is at a nice 0.69 percent and the 90.9 he is averaging on his fastball is a career best. Lee is being hurt by a .364 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .304 and he has never had a mark over .315 in his career.

Kendry Morales – After failing to win a full-time job the past three seasons, Morales fell into the “Overrated Cuban Star” category. But with little competition for the first base job, Morales figures to get 500 or more at-bats this season. And the last two years at Triple-A, he has a .341 batting average. He is probably not a threat to hit 30 HR, but a guy who can hit .315 with 20-25 HR in your corner infield slot is not a bad thing to have.

Rich Harden – The usual MO with Harden is he’s great when he’s healthy but you have no idea how long he’ll be able to hold it together. This year he’s been (knock on Kerry Wood) healthy, but the results have been less than stellar, with two of his five starts being pretty awful. Right now he is being really hurt by walks and the long ball. Harden always walks his fair share of batters but the HR rate is likely to go down. He has a lifetime HR/9 of 0.73 and only once has he posted a rate over 1, with his 1.05 mark in seven games in 2007. Right now, Harden’s HR/9 sits at 1.82 after five starts. If you need to make up ground in pitching, this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble to consider.

Troy Tulowitzki – A 4-for-39 stretch is really dragging down Tulowitzki’s overall numbers at this point. But I like the .200 ISO and I just cannot see the combination of a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a .245 BABIP lasting for much longer.

Trade

Hunter Pence – If you were going to describe Pence, how would you do it? Is he an average hitter or a HR guy or a SB threat? Perhaps he contributes in every category but does he really help you in any of them? His batted ball profile (12.8% LD, 60.3% GB, 26.9% FB) suggests average hitter, but he has a .300 AVG with a .319 BABIP. It is hard to imagine the average staying that high going forward. It looks like 2008 is the high end of what to expect from Pence, and that is only if he can keep his HR/FB ratio in double digits, something no one else of the 18 players with a GB rate over 50 percent was able to accomplish last year.

James Shields – The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, the home runs allowed are up and yet somehow Shields’ ERA is almost identical to where it was a year ago. It is funny what a .245 BABIP and an 81.7 percent strand rate can do for a fellow. Sell high before the hits start falling in against him.

Magglio Ordonez – The batting average will probably rebound some but the power is gone. He hit two home runs in April, which was the eighth-straight month in which he failed to hit more than five homers. See if you can find someone who remembers 2007-vintage Ordonez and views him as a buy-low candidate.

Jason Marquis – It was hard to imagine a worse fit than Marquis pitching in Colorado. He had a lifetime 1.42 WHIP and a 1.51 K/BB ratio. So of course right now he is sitting at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.42 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP. It is going to be hard to find someone who wants to trade for him, but at the very least ask around and see if you can find a taker.

Jeff Francoeur – All we hear these days is how newspapers are in trouble. Papers are either shutting down or are on life support. Even the venerable Boston Globe is on shaky ground. But you never hear anything about the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And that is because they write at least one glowing article on Francoeur per week. He has reworked his swing and he is not striking out. This is a player that it seems people are actively rooting for to do well. Yet his average is nothing to get excited about and he is not hitting for great power. And it is debatable if he is going to maintain a K% less than half of his career average going forward.

*****

We are discussing having either a mail bag or a live chat to answer trade questions. So, instead of posting trade proposals and asking for feedback, please respond as to which of the two formats you would prefer seeing. A mail bag is easier on our end and is something we could get going sooner. A live chat offers a much quicker response but will require the RotoGraphs authors to coordinate our schedules, which may not match yours.

As always, comments on the individual players listed here are welcome and encouraged.

Stock Up

Andruw Jones, Rangers

Remember the state of Jones’ career one year ago? He was coming off an incredulously bad beginning with the Dodgers (.159/.282/.250 last April), on his way to an apocalyptic .234 wOBA and -17.9 Batting Runs in just 238 PA. It was a startlingly abrupt fall for a guy who had posted 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in a “down” 2007 season. Essentially given a settlement package by the Dodgers to leave LA and never, ever return, Jones has crushed the ball thus far with the Rangers. The corpulent out-maker of ’08 is nowhere to be found, as the 32 year-old has a .507 wOBA (.333/.500/.718) in 52 plate appearances. With Jones channeling his inner Barry Bonds, David Murphy getting in touch with his inner Juan Pierre (.260 wOBA) and Josh Hamilton hitting the DL (finding his inner Milton Bradley?), Andruw should definitely be on your radar.

Dexter Fowler, Rockies

A lanky 6-4 center fielder endowed with a full complement of tools, Fowler is off to an excellent start with Colorado. Aside from his five SB bonanza versus Padres righty Chris Young, Fowler has a .363 wOBA in 82 PA after jumping straight from Double-A. He’s working the count well (10 BB%, 19.7 Outside-Swing%), has shown some pop (.153 Isolated Power) and he’s 9-for-10 in the steals department (a welcome change for a guy whose raw speed had produced a pernicious 66.4% SB success rate over the past three minor league seasons). The 23 year-old switch-hitter has earned an everyday gig with the Rockies, and his broad skill-set makes him well worth acquiring.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

When Youkilis slugged .569 and thumped 29 homers in 2008, most figured that his power numbers would regress more toward his career averages in 2009. After all, his career-high SLG% prior to that was .453, in 2007. So far, the 30 year-old has done his best to quash those thoughts: with 6 dingers and a .744 slugging percentage, Youkilis has produced a .528 wOBA that leads all major league hitters. After four straight seasons of decreasing walks and increasing Outside-Swing percentages (chronicled in more detail here), Youk is drawing free passes at a career-high 15.7% clip.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones was covered here a few weeks ago, but his significant progress with the lumber deserves further mention. Jones was among the most free swingers in the game during the 2008 season (his 36.2 Outside-Swing% was leaps and bounds above the 25.4% MLB average, and ranked 9th-highest among all hitters), but he’s curtailed that Francoeur-esque approach in 2009. His O-Swing% is down to a more reasonable 26.5%, and his walk rate his climbed to 8.8% from a paltry 4.6% in ’08. As a result, the 23 year-old has put himself in the hole with less frequency this season: his First-Pitch Strike% has fallen from 66% in 2008 to 59.1% in 2009 (57.6% MLB average). No, he won’t come anywhere close to hitting .355, but Jones’ more enlightened plate approach is a welcome sight.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Gallardo has been every bit the ace he was billed as, with a slick 3.78 K/BB ratio and a 3.37 FIP. He’s benefitting from a .220 BABIP, but with 8.83 K’s per nine, 2.34 BB/9 and a greater number of grounders (47.7 GB%, compared to a 38.7% career average), Gallardo has the skills to remain among the very best in the NL.

Stock Down

David Ortiz, Red Sox

During the off-season, I wondered if the days of “Big Papi” were now a relic of the past, to be replaced by the much-less-catchy “Medium Papi” era. Right about now, Boston would love to have even a mildly productive Papi: the 33 year-old has a sordid .271 wOBA in 114 PA. Ortiz has been uncharacteristically impatient at the dish: his 28.2 Outside-Swing% is well above last year’s 20.6% mark and his 18.3% career average. He’s also making more contact on those outside pitches (59.4 Outside-Contact%, 53.4% in 2008), likely meaning he’s been making more weak contact on “pitcher’s pitches” off the plate. Combine the hacking with an ISO that looks like a misprint (.094) and a tendency to get jammed (his Infield/FB% is 18.6%, compared to an 8.3% career average), and you have a fellow who has produced -6.8 batting runs on the season.

Daniel Cabrera, Nationals

The Nats brought in Cabrera from the O’s this past offseason, hoping to find even remnants of the 6-7, hard-throwing groundball pitcher who looked highly promising during the middle part of the aughts. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s skills have eroded even further this season. His K rate (just 4.75 in ’08, after sitting in the 7-9 range earlier in his career) has dropped to a microscopic 3.33 per nine innings, and he’s issuing an absurd number of free passes (6.29 BB/9). Cabrera sat at 96.2 MPH with his heater in 2005, yet he’s barely cracking 90 this season (90.5 MPH, down over 2 MPH from last season).

Perhaps in recognition of his diminished fastball, Cabrera is mixing in more breaking pitches: his league-high fastball usage in 2008 (82.5%) has been ratcheted down to 67.9%, with more sliders and changeups instead. Unfortunately, he has next to no control of those secondary offerings, either: just 41.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate (48.9% MLB average). The result of all this ugliness is a 5.72 FIP. Cabrera won’t turn 28 until the end of the month, yet it seems as though he’s completely lost the ability to pitch at the major league level within a span of four seasons.

Joe Saunders, Angels

How long can Saunders keep this act up? He posted a 3.41 ERA last season, but a low whiff rate (4.68 K/9) and good fortune on balls in play (.267 BABIP) indicated that regression would find him: his FIP was a less-impressive 4.36. In 2009, Saunders has posted an identical 3.41 ERA in 31.2 frames, yet his FIP has trailed further south (4.87), while his strikeout total (2.56 K/9) would make Kirk Rueter blush. Again benefitting from a low BABIP (.252), Saunders is a great sell-high candidate.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Wither Pronk? Hafner (coming off an ugly, injury-marred 2008 season) had been doing his best “Hulk Smash” impression in the early portion of the season, posting a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO. Unfortunately, his surgically repaired shoulder again acted up, pushing him to the DL. On the positive side, Hafner’s absence should open the door for the recently recalled Matt LaPorta.

Oliver Perez, Mets

Perez’s scattershot control has come completely off the rails in 2009. Never known for painting the corners, Perez has issued 8.72 BB/9 this year, with a near-ten ERA and a 6.17 FIP. When he’s not walking the yard, Ollie has surrendered line drives at a 29% clip. Batters have understandably plastered the lumber to their shoulders, chasing Perez’s outside offerings just 13.2% of the time (the lowest rate among starters). The 27 year-old’s fastball is coming in at 89.2 MPH (down two ticks from last year). Is Perez hurt? And if not, isn’t that almost worse?

Here is the latest update to Week 5 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
HOU – Oswalt
ANA – Saunders
STL – Lohse
NYY – Hughes
NYM – Maine
PHI – Blanton
WAS – Lannan
WSX – Colon
MIL – Suppan
TOR – Cecil
LAD – Weaver
HOU – Moehler

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
NYM – Santana
NYY – Burnett
PHI – Hamels
WSX – Buehrle
STL – Boggs
LAD – McDonald
HOU – Paulino
WAS – Cabrera
HOU – Ortiz
ANA – Ortega
TOR – Burres

The Washington Nationals, to be kind, are not experiencing a high point in franchise history; the Expos of the mid-90’s, these are not. Off to a wretched 6-17 start (largely supported by a negative 29 run differential) on the heels of a Latin American bonus skimming scandal, the dismissal of Jim Bowden and the construction of a brand spankin’ new stadium that roughly a dozen people have visited, the Nats are baseball’s biggest punch line.

Fortunately, the end of the alphabet has been exceedingly generous to Washington, supplying a pair of franchise cornerstones in third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and right-handed starter Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann the starter might already be the best arm on the pitching staff, while the Zimmerman manning the hot corner is off to a blazing start at the plate.

As you likely know, Zimmerman spent roughly three seconds in the minor leagues following his selection of out Virginia with the 4th pick in the 2005 amateur draft. After just 250 AB split between A-Ball and AA (where he batted a scorching .336/.377/.564), the slick-fielding third baseman got the call to the majors, where he made an extremely positive impression as a 20 year-old (.422 wOBA in 62 PA).

Zimmerman’s full-season debut in 2006 was everything that one could have hoped for: batting .287/.351/.471, he posted a .348 wOBA while contributing with the leather as well (4.7 UZR/150). The result was 4.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), an all-star performance for a guy barely old enough to order a drink.

2007 was nearly identical in terms of offensive output. Posting a .340 wOBA (.266/.330/.458), Zimmerman posted very similar walk and strikeout rates to those of his rookie campaign (BB rates of 9% in ’06 and 8.5% in ’07, K rates of 19.5% in ’06 and 19.1% in ’07). His Isolated Power (ISO) increased slightly, from .184 to .191. While his bat didn’t progress rapidly, Zimmerman’s slightly above league average lumber (supplemented by a crazy-good 16.5 UZR/150 at third) made him worth 5.1 WAR.

Given his Scott Rolen-esque skill-set and youth, Zimmerman’s 2.2 WAR output in 2008 came as something of a disappointment. The 6-3, 225 pounder suffered a left shoulder injury that limited him to 466 PA. His wOBA again fell slightly to .336, as he hit .283/.333/.442. His walk rate slipped to 6.8%, with his ISO dropping to .159. Clearly affected by the shoulder in the early season (his April OPS was .632), Zimmerman returned in late July with better results: a .320/.367/.420 line in August, followed by a .290/.347/.516 showing in September.

That late-season raking has carried over into 2009: Zimmerman has a .392 wOBA thus far, mashing to the tune of .306/.364/.551. His .245 ISO is light years ahead of 2008’s pace, the result of fewer pitches beaten into the infield dirt. Zimmerman is taking to the air in ’09:

2006: 42.3 GB%, 35.9 FB%
2007: 43.5 GB%, 39.5 FB%
2008: 46.1 GB%, 34.1 FB%
2009: 31.2 GB%, 48.1 FB%

For the first time in his career, Zimmerman is lofting the ball with frequency. His flyball percentage ranks among the top 25 in baseball, and not coincidentally, that list includes plenty of power hitters.

With a sound shoulder and a more power-oriented approach, Zimmerman looks poised for an offensive breakthrough in 2009. Still just 24, Washington’s championship-caliber third baseman (just signed to a long-term extension) provides a strong foundation for a franchise with plenty of broken windows.

The Cleveland Indians organization finally made the move we all knew was coming the moment 1B/DH Travis Hafner hit the disabled list with another shoulder injury. The club promoted LF/1B/DH Matt LaPorta from Triple-A. LaPorta has crushed minor league pitching almost constantly since being the seventh overall selection in the 2007 draft. The right-handed batter was traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland in last year’s C.C. Sabathia deal.

He has massive power and could make an immediate impact in the Indians lineup, given appropriate playing time from manager Eric Wedge. LaPorta was hitting .333/.414/.640 with five homers in 75 at-bats for Triple-A Columbus. His walk rate has been constantly improving, which is encouraging, but you can expect him to strikeout 20-25 percent of the time.

LaPorta struggles against off-speed pitches so he’s going to see a lot of them early on in his MLB career. His career minor-league average is .292 but don’t expect him to hit for a high average right away. The power, though, should be there right from the get-go. He may get platooned early on, but he’s never really hit southpaws all that well with a career .237/.327/.452 line against them (compared to righties at .311/.407/.626).

The club also recalled infielder Luis Valbuena. He was picked up from the Seattle organization in the J.J. Putz trade this past off-season, which also saw outfielder Franklin Gutierrez head to Seattle. Valbuena has a little bit more pop in his bat than current Indians infielder Asdrubal Cabrera – who was also obtained from Seattle in an earlier trade back in 2006 – which can actually be a bad thing as he tries to muscle up from time-to-time. Valbuena has the chance to offer some stolen bases and a little pop, while also providing a respectable average. In other words, he’ll given a little bit of everything but he’s not going to be a star.

*For an extra bit of info… Here is an interview I did with Matt LaPorta shortly before the Brewers selected him with the seventh overall pick in 2007.

The Toronto Blue Jays made a number of pitching moves this past week by demoting right-handed pitcher Bryan Bullington, as well as southpaws Brian Burres and David Purcey to Triple-A. The club promoted reliever Brian Wolfe as well as rookie hurlers Brett Cecil and Robert Ray to the Majors. Both Cecil and Ray are making their MLB debuts. Wolfe has had a number of stints with Toronto after originally coming to the organization from Milwaukee in a trade for third baseman Corey Koskie, who has since retired.

Cecil is the bigger name of the two prospects. He was originally acquired in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft out of the University of Maryland. The left-handed starter was a reliever in college but had a successful conversion to the starting rotation. Cecil, though, has battled injury problems. He was also struggling at Triple-A Las Vegas prior to his call-up and had an ERA above 8.00 in the very good hitter’s league. Cecil, though, may have been a victim of his defense to some degree as his FIP was just 3.72. He’s not a great bet in the short term for fantasy baseball owners because he is still working on his endurance and is a five-inning pitcher for the most part, which will limit his effectiveness in categories such as wins and strikeouts. Cecil also struggles with his fastball command a bit, but his control is at least average. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, good slider, curveball and developing change-up.

Ray is an interesting player and he – like Cecil and many of the Jays’ young pitchers – has battled injury problems. The right-hander missed significant portions of the 2006 and 2007 seasons after undergoing shoulder surgery. He showcased good stuff in college but was painfully inconsistent and those issues have plagued Ray in his pro career too. The Jays selected him in the seventh round of the 2005 draft out of Texas A&M. He has an average repertoire with an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider and splitter. His ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter, although he is probably better suited to relief. Ray actually began the 2009 season on the disabled list and actually had his rehab cut short when Triple-A Las Vegas needed pitchers. He made his MLB debut on Saturday against Baltimore and allowed three runs in 5.2 innings. Ray struggled a bit with his nerves (56 of his 90 pitches were for strikes) and walked four batters with just two strikeouts. He allowed just four hits.

As mentioned, neither pitcher is a great bet going forward in fantasy baseball for 2009. Cecil has a higher ceiling when considering overall careers, as a left-handed version of David Bush (a converted college reliever drafted in the first two rounds by Toronto and later traded to Milwaukee). Wolfe, the third player recalled, will likely serve as a long reliever and should have limited fantasy impact, save for the odd vulture win.

A fair number of stars, like Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana, are slated for two starts in Week 5. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Josh Beckett – Ordinarily he would be a no-brainer pick for your lineup, even if he had just one start in a week. But Beckett’s been unimpressive since his Opening Day outing. Since then he’s pitched 17.2 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. It is always a risk to take a horse like Beckett out of the lineup, but two starts of lousy pitching this week is something of which to be wary. His two games are at New York and versus Tampa Bay.

Chris Volstad – He has a 2.67 ERA overall and in his last start allowed just two runs in seven innings while he struck out five batters. Bench him anyway. Volstad has a tough matchup with Edinson Volquez in his first start and then he has to go to Colorado for his second outing, always a tricky place for pitchers and not one that a hurler who has allowed five home runs in 30.1 innings should particularly relish.

Mark Buehrle – The veteran has been extremely effective so far this season, as he has allowed two, one, three and two earned runs in his four outings. Buehrle also is doing a better than usual job of striking out batters, as he has notched 17 Ks in 24 IP. His first start is at Kansas City and then he returns to Chicago for a matchup with Texas.

Paul Maholm – I am going with my gut on this one. His first start is against the Brewers, who roughed up Maholm in his last outing. I like pitchers who get a quick shot at revenge against a team that just beat them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to beat Milwaukee one of these days, right? The losing streak is up to 15 games now. In his second start, Maholm goes up against Livan Hernandez and the Mets at Citi Field.

Felipe Paulino – A pinched nerve in his shoulder kept Paulino out for virtually the entire 2008 season. He opened this year in the minors but was promoted when Brian Moehler hit the DL in mid-April. Since then the 25-year old with the 95 mph fastball has been solid, despite his 0-2 record. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and has yet to allow a HR. Unfortunately, his teammates have provided him with only four runs in three games. His first start is at Washington and then he returns home to face off against San Diego.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, Gallardo, Hernandez, Kazmir Burnett, Johnson, Lester, Wainwright, Vazquez, Bedard, Harang, Dempster, Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Myers, Garza, Millwood, Floyd, Liriano, Jackson, Scherzer, Carmona, Sanchez, Davies, Uehara, Marshall, Davis, Snell, Cook, Reyes, Blackburn, Porcello, Braden, Kawakami, Stults, Tallet, Anderson, Padilla, Boggs, Olsen, McDonald, Hernandez, De la Rosa, Cabrera, Correia, Ortiz, Geer, Loux, Eaton, Ortega and Burress.

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90’s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. First up, those who have posted an ERA significantly better than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who might slip going forward, if their peripherals don’t improve.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

2.13 ERA, 4.37 FIP

This is certainly change for Millwood, whose FIP outpaced his ERA from 2006-2008. The 34 year-old has hardly been bad (Millwood isn’t missing many bats with 5.21 K/9, but his walk rate is a nifty 1.89 per nine). It’s just that his .220 BABIP and a very high strand rate (86.7% of runners put on base have been left out in the cold) make his work look ace-like as opposed to just slightly above league-average.

Ian Snell, Pirates

3.72 ERA, 5.90 FIP

Snell is one of many Bucco hurlers outperforming his FIP thus far- Pittsburgh’s staff has a collective 3.38 ERA, but a much less impressive FIP of 4.75. Snell rode the opposite wagon in 2008, posting a middling 4.57 FIP but a ghastly 5.42 ERA. The righty has an unimpressive 1.11 K/BB ratio in 2009, the product of 6.21 K/9 and a Blassian 5.59 BB/9. Just 43.4% of his pitches have been in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Chris Volstad, Marlins

2.67 ERA, 4.83 FIP

Toting a low-90’s sinker and a big curve, Volstad was never considered a power pitcher in the minors (his career K rate was 5.9 per nine innings.) So far in ’09, though? The 6-7 righty has punched out 8.01 per nine, while still generating grounders (53.2 GB%). His control hasn’t been very sharp (3.56 BB/9) and his BABIP is absurdly low (.182, lowest among all starters). Volstad surely won’t keep a sub-three ERA, but there are actually a number of positives here: in addition to the extra whiffs and continued grounders, Volstad has been rather unlucky in the HR department (1.48 HR/9 and a wacky-high 19.2 HR/FB%). If you view his work through Expected FIP (XFIP) instead (which normalizes HR/FB rates to root out outlier performances on flyballs), Volstad checks in at 4.09. He’s not an ace, but there’s a lot to like.

Braden Looper, Brewers

2.45 ERA, 4.54 FIP

Looper has basically been his league-average self in Bratwurst Town, though he’s both whiffed (6.55 K/9) and walked (4.5 BB/9) more than normal (career 5.25 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9). The former Cardinal, Marlin, Met, Cardinal again and now Brewer has lucked out in stranding runners (86.5% strand rate).

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

2.25 ERA, 4.24 FIP

Jackson has gotten a lot of play as a breakout performer in 2009, and to his credit he has shown some improvement in Mo Town. His previously oscillating control (his career BB/9 is 4.37) has been pretty crisp (2.25 BB/9 in ’09), and batters are offering at a higher percentage of the pitches that he throws out of the strike zone (28.5 Outside Swing%, well above his 21.3% career average and the 24.3% MLB average). He’s also avoided being beaten like a drum by left-handed batters, holding southpaws to a .497 OPS in 2009 (his career mark is .810).

So, Jackson performed like a pretty good mid-rotation starter in April. But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here: his BABIP is .233, and he’s still missing bats at a clip slightly below the league average (Jackson has K’d 5.91 per nine this season).

Now that we have several appearances worth of information to examine, this seems like a good time to take a brief look at some of the high-profile rookie pitchers in the majors this spring. How are Anderson, Porcello, Cahill et. al faring so far? After taking a peek at Porcello and Perry last time around, let’s now shift our focus out West to Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.

The Oakland Athletics are off to an inauspicious start in 2009. While fortunately residing in a division where a mid-80’s win total may well get the job done, the A’s have nonetheless collectively hit like a team of evil Jose Vidro doppelgangers (dead-last in wOBA at .288, while posting an MLB-worst .322 SLG% that’s 49 points lower than 29th-ranked Cincinnati).

While the bats have been slack, the pitching hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire thus far either: Oakland’s starters have compiled a 5.06 FIP, 24th in the majors. Two of the culprits in the early going are Anderson and Cahill, whose rookie years have gotten off to bumpy starts.

Anderson (profiled here) has a 5.24 FIP in 23.1 frames. The 6-4 lefty has displayed his deep four-pitch mix, with a 91 MPH fastball (thrown 55.2% of the time), a 82.7 MPH slider (29.8%), a 74.7 MPH curve (4.4%) and a 83.3 MPH changeup (10.7%).

Looking at Anderson’s Pitch F/X data, you can see that his heater has slightly more tailing action in on lefties than most southpaw fastballs (7.4 inches, compared to the 6.5 inch average for LH). His slider has shown unusual depth: the pitch has -3.4 inches of vertical movement (meaning that the pitch drops 3.4 inches more than a ball thrown without spin). For comparison, the MLB average for lefty sliders is positive 1.8 inches.

To this point, however, that four-pitch assortment hasn’t yielded many swings and misses. Anderson has 14 K’s (5.4 per nine innings), while his contact percentage (88.6%) is well above the 80.6% MLB average.

On the positive side, the 21 year-old has continued a career-long trend of inducing grounders (54.5 GB%), and his control hasn’t been too shabby (3.09 BB/9). His FIP might look kind of ugly, but that’s partially the product of an elevated home run rate (1.54 HR/9) and HR/fly ball figure (13.8 HR/FB%- the average tends to hover around 11%).

Perhaps Anderson hasn’t hit the ground running, but he has held his own as a rookie whose only upper-level experience in the minors includes 31 innings at AA and a playoff stint with AAA Sacramento.

While Anderson has run into some occasional trouble, Trevor Cahill has found the strike zone about as often as A’s hitters have found themselves on base: it’s a rare occurrence. Oakland’s other prized pitching prospect (examined in more detail here) has dished out free passes like they were bobble head give-aways, walking 15 batters in 20 innings of work. Couple that lack of precision with just 7 K’s, and you have the recipe for a nasty 6.33 FIP.

While Cahill also features a fastball, slider, curve and a change, he has chosen to work almost exclusively with his cheese. Thrown at an average of 88 MPH, Cahill has thrown his fastball 85.8% of the time. That’s the third-highest rate in the majors, trailing only sinkerballer Aaron Cook and Bartolo Colon. Cahill’s other offerings have made just brief cameos: a 82.9 MPH slider (thrown 4.1%), a 78.4 MPH curve (2.2%) and a 78 MPH changeup (7.9%).

Given the 21 year-old’s difficulty in placing his sinker with the zone, opposing hitters have chosen to lay off Cahill’s pitches for the most part. Cahill is garnering swings on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone just 19.8% of the time, below the 24.3% MLB average. Overall, opponents have swung at Cahill’s stuff 40.5% of the time (44.5% MLB average).

Oakland’s dynamic duo might not be off to a rousing start, but they remain highly promising young arms who have been forced to make quite the dramatic leap in competition and skill. Anderson and Cahill should be near the top of any keeper league rankings for young starters.