The Florida Marlins club has recalled its top middle infield prospect. Second baseman Chris Coghlan, who can also play third base, was brought up when right-hander Anibal Sanchez was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The former supplemental first round pick out of the University of Mississippi in 2006 had been playing at Triple-A. He was hitting .344/.418/.552 with three homers and nine stolen bases in 96 at-bats.

Coghlan will likely see more time at third base rather than second, due to the presence of Dan Uggla at the keystone. As well, the Marlins’ current third baseman – Emilio Bonifacio – has been struggling recently after a scorching start to the season. Long term, though, Coghlan could afford the cost-conscious Marlins the luxury of trading Uggla (who has impressive power but poor defense) for much-needed inexpensive pitching depth.

Coghlan’s best position is second base due to his offensive profile, which includes average power at best. The left-handed batter slammed a career high 12 home runs in 2007 at the A-ball level. He hit just seven last year in Double-A, with an ISO of .130. Eventually, the 23 year old projects to be a 10-15 home run hitter. Although he is not a burner on the base paths, Coghlan has good speed and is a smart runner with 30 stolen base potential.

Sanchez’ injury also impacts the Marlins as it significantly damages the pitching depth for the big club, with starter Andrew Miller aleady on the DL. Sanchez is expected to be out about two months after his shoulder acted up this week (He had labrum surgery in 2007). Look for reliever Burke Badenhop to move from the bullpen to the rotation. The right-hander has been pitching in the bullpen for the Marlins. In five games, he had a 3.63 FIP with 10 hits and three walks in nine innings. Last season, the 26-year-old appeared in 13 games for the big club and made eight starts. He posted a 6.08 ERA (5.10 FIP) and allowed 55 hits and 21 walks in 47.1 innings. Badenhop has the ceiling of a No. 4 or 5 starter and his fastball has been missing a couple miles per hour this season over last.

After last week’s bonanza of two-start pitchers, there are considerably fewer to choose from this week. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Kevin Slowey – Is off to a poor start this year and things do not look to get any easier this week. His first start is against the Tigers, against whom he has a 5.74 lifetime ERA. His second start is in New York, where the Yankees have hit 23 HR in 13 games. Slowey has a 1.57 HR/9 so far this year.

Justin Masterson – He has had two rough starts in a row and has to go on the road in both starts this week. But both starts he got beat up in his last inning and I like him this week in his matchups against Anthony Ortega and Carlos Silva.

Mike Pelfrey – He does not strike anyone out and the ERA is terrible. But after taking time off for a strained forearm, Pelfrey is 3-0 with 4.00 ERA. With starts at Citi Field and AT&T Park, Pelfrey should be able to keep the ball in the park and continue to lower his ERA.

Jordan Zimmermann – After allowing six runs in the first inning of his last start, Zimmermann pitched five scoreless frames and limited further damage, a nice thing to see from a young pitcher. Like Pelfrey he’s had trouble with the HR ball, but hopefully a road start in San Francisco followed by a home start will limit that damage.

Mike Hampton – After three solid starts to begin the year, Hampton has been knocked around in his last three outings. Expect that trend to continue with road starts at Colorado and at Chicago.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Peavy, Lowe, Burnett, Harden, Cain, Kershaw, Floyd, Johnson, Duke, Jimenez, Arroyo, Garland, Parra, Sonnanstine, Wellemeyer, Moyer, Sanchez, Pavano, Feldman, Cabrera, Miner, Park, Silva, Sowers, Ponson, Hendrickson, Ortega.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 4 and how they did.

Blanton – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a bad one, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.1 IP. In his next start, which was pushed back to Week #5, Blanton picked up win while allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Jackson – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one, with 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday. He pitched six scoreless innings and then gave up five runs in the seventh.

Lohse – Advised to sit. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one. 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday and he gave up 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

Young – Advised to sit. Finally one who pitched two starts. He allowed 9 ER in 10 IP.

Zito – Advised to start. He made two starts, pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 3 ER.

As Eric Seidman astutely pointed out, baseball fans can become spoiled. Excellence, in some cases, is eventually taken for granted. Call it the Albert Pujols Effect: a guy laps the competition for so long, that we gradually come to view that brilliant player as mundane, boring; been there, done that.

Johan Santana certainly falls into this category. As a Minnesota Twin, the lefty changeup artist was a pitching cyborg. He posted Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.3 between 2004 and 2006. Santana “declined” to a mere 4.6 and 4.8 over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, which still put him among the best hurlers in the game. However, spoiled by his Bob Gibson-like reign of terror, some fans claimed that Santana was no longer special.

Oops. As it turns out, the 30 year-old is just fine, thanks. In 39.2 innings this season, Santana has punched out a jaw-dropping 54 batters (12.25 K/9), which is the highest rate of his career. His FIP sits at a microscopic 2.03, and he has compiled 1.7 WAR already. That’s tied with Tim Lincecum for the third-highest mark in the majors: only Dan Haren and Zack Greinke have provided more value to this point. How good has Santana been? Consider the following..

– Santana is generating swings on pitches thrown outside the strike zone 31.6% of the time. That’s the highest mark that we have for him dating back to 2002, and is nearly 5 percent higher than his 2008 figure.

– When they aren’t fishing for one off the plate, opposing batters are having plenty of difficulty making contact with pitches over the plate. Santana’s Z-Contact% (the percentage of contact made on pitches in the strike zone) is just 73.8%, compared to the 87.7% MLB average. Again, that’s the lowest mark for Santana dating back to 2002, and it’s the lowest rate among all starting pitchers.

– Santana’s overall Contact% of 68.3 is bested only by Rich Harden’s 66.1.

– With a 67.1 First-Pitch Strike%, Santana ranks sixth in the majors. He’s getting ahead 0-1 or ending the at-bat after the first pitch at his highest rate since 2005.

It may be fun and refreshing to try and identify the next batch of premium pitching talent, but let’s not forget about the current crop, either. Santana is primed for a huge season, not that his work over the last few years was anything short of superb.

For all of the club’s touted young hitting talent, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has flat lined in 2009. “Boasting” the third-worst wOBA in the major leagues (the A’s and Giants are one and two, the M’s fourth- it’s a west coast thing), the D-Backs are off the sluggish 12-17 start, with a run differential of negative twenty-two.

Arizona’s center fielder and right fielder offer quite the contrast in terms of making good on that former top prospect status. While Justin Upton has been downright venomous to opposing pitchers, Chris B. Young continues to raise concerns about his control of the zone.

Upton, of course, is a hitting prodigy. The 6-2, 205 pounder dominated minor league hurlers several years older than him, including a 2007 tour-de-force that saw hit bat a combined .319/.410/.551 between High-A Visalia and AA Mobile.

After an understandable bumpy start in the bigs as a teenager (.277 wOBA in 152 PA during the 2007 season), Upton more than held his own in 2008. In 417 PA, he batted .250/.353/.463, walking at an impressive clip (13.2%) while posting a .347 wOBA. His K rate was sky-high (34%), but that’s nitpicking when one considers that most 20 year-old players are toiling in A-Ball or are sophomores in college.

In 2009, Upton is one of the few Arizona hitters not embarrassing himself at the dish. The 21 year-old’s .405 wOBA paces the club by nearly 40 points (Mark Reynolds is second, at .367). Upton has creamed the ball, with a .271 ISO that runs circles around last year’s already-outstanding .213 mark. While he has continued to draw free passes at a decent rate (10.5%), his Kingman-esque strikeout totals haven’t been as much of a problem. He’s whiffed 25.9% of the time, still a high number, but the progress in that department is encouraging. Overall, Upton has compiled 5.1 Batting Runs, which already tops last year’s mark of 4.1.

While Upton has been busy claiming his spot as one of the most valuable properties in the game, Young has been hard at work trying to solve the energy crisis. The solution? Swing and miss enough, and we’ll have all the wind power necessary to end dependence on foreign oil. The former Pale Hose prospect (the principal swag in the Javier Vazquez trade several years back) had a spectacular minor league career, with a .266/.355/.500 line that actually understates his performance, if anything (he slugged .545 in AA and .532 in AAA). However, his performance to this point has left some wondering, “is that all there is?”

Young is in the midst of his third full season in the majors, but his results have cratered. After posting wOBA’s of .331 in 2007 and .329 in 2008, the 25 year-old has managed a feeble .248 this year. Young has always swung and missed with frequency, but his stellar secondary skills (walks and power) were expected to make the contact concerns moot. That just hasn’t been the case to this point:

2006: 7.9 BB%, 17.1 K%
2007: 7.0 BB%, 24.8 K%
2008: 9.0 BB%, 26.4 K%
2009: 5.9 BB%, 32.3 K%

What’s strange is that while Young’s control of the zone would appear to be eroding, he has actually increased his pitches/PA in each full season (2007 to now): 3.8 in ’07, 4.0 in ’08 and 4.2 in ’09. His overall contact rate hasn’t changed significantly, either, hovering between 75-77%.

In 2009, however, it seems as though Young is making worse contact: his Outside-Contact% has jumped from 53.7% in ’08 to 65.3% this season (62.1% MLB average). Conversely, his Z-Contact% (percentage of contact within the strike zone) has tumbled from 85.3% to 79.2% (87.7% MLB average). He’s putting the bat on the ball more often on offerings off the dish, while coming up empty with regularity on the pitches that do cross the plate. Young is also getting jammed more often than any other major league hitter: his IF/FB% is 41.7%, nearly five points higher than second-place Rick Ankiel.

Young’s .238 BABIP surely isn’t helping matters, and given a decent line drive percentage (18.5%), you’d expect that number to climb. Still, Young is going to have to do better than a 0.19 BB/K ratio if he’s going to lean more toward Upton’s brilliance in right, as opposed to Conor Jackson’s similar brand of disappointment in left.

While visiting the Los Angeles Times to read the story about Manny Ramirez failing a drug test, I came across another article in the sports section about Gary Matthews Jr. Columnist Mike DiGiovanna wrote on Matthews being a productive bat in the lineup once given a chance to play with Vladimir Guerrero on the disabled list.

DiGiovanna wrote: “Matthews has started 15 of the team’s 26 games and entered Wednesday batting .288 with 12 runs batted in. He has as many RBIs in 59 at-bats as Bobby Abreu has in 96 at-bats.”

Since Matthews is owned in only 1.5 percent of ESPN leagues, is he a good candidate to pick up? Especially with Abreu rostered in 100 percent of ESPN leagues? Since they have such unequal playing time, let’s look at their rate stats (rather than fantasy stats) to discover their fantasy prospects. Here are the respective AVG/OBP/SLG marks for Matthews and Abreu in 2009:

M – .270/.314/.349
A – .343/.405/.394

Clearly, Abreu has been the better hitter so why is he doing so poor in RBI chances compared to Matthews? It is not by home runs, since neither player has hit one out so far. Here are their numbers when they come to the plate with men on base:

M – 30 PA 12 RBIs .346/.367/.500 (0.40 RBIs per plate appearance)
A – 50 PA 12 RBIs .375/.480/.450 (0.24 RBIs per plate appearance)

And here are their lifetime marks with men on base.

M -1758 PA 386 RBIs .259/.339/.416 (0.22 RBIs per plate appearance)
A – 3704 PA 976 RBIs .324/.433/.532 (0.26 RBIs per plate appearance)

So it’s not that Abreu is doing bad, it’s that Matthews has done a great job of converting his chances in 2009. But seven of his 12 RBIs came in two games. On May 1st, he had four RBIs, thanks mostly to a bases-loaded triple. On May 5th he had three RBIs, thanks to a two-run double and an infield single.

As you might guess, Matthews has an excellent clutch score this season. He is second on the Angels with a 0.63 mark. That would be the 11th-best mark in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Abreu is sixth on the team with a 0.06 mark. Both players have clutch scores all over the map throughout their careers.

What seems curious is manager Mike Sciscioa’s decision to move Matthews to second in the lineup. A player with a below-average on-base percentage combined with an above-average slugging with men on base seems like a better fit lower in the order.

With Garrett Anderson gone, someone has to take the role on the Angels of driving in runs while hurting those who come up behind him by not getting on base. That snark aside, the RBIs by Matthews are real and they help both the Angels and your fantasy team.

However, do not rush to add him to your lineup. Matthews has had a couple of timely hits with men on base. But history has proven that Abreu is more likely to contribute in these situations and to give those behind him a chance to drive in runs, too. And while Matthews has been a plus in RBIs this season, he has been average or worse in AVG, SB and HRs. And his .270 average comes despite a .347 BABIP, 46 points above his career mark.

Judging by his past performance, Matthews is much more likely to hurt you in those three categories going forward than he is to help you in RBIs.

Take a look at Chris Iannetta’s batted ball statistics so far this year, and your eyes may stutter.

Sure, some of the numbers may not surprise you. He’s a career .244 MLB hitter, and .303 MiLB hitter. So you might see his batting average so far this year (a robust .200), take a gander at his .176 BABIP, and dust your hands off. See? He’s just been unlucky, and just needs a couple more balls to fall in and he’ll be fine.

In the immortal words of Bugs Bunny in Space Jam, “Not so fast, Doc!”

Keep scanning right and you’ll come to it. See it yet? Yup, Iannetta has a line drive rate of 5.1% right now. And yes, a 69.2% fly ball percentage. It’s a young year, but those are some funky numbers. They paint quite the picture of a young slugger with a huge uppercut swing. As early as the 16th of last month, Thomas Harding reported on MLB.com that the young catcher, though making strides defensively, still “has to work on not hitting under balls.” Seemingly, he’s still a work in progress, and the team is aware of the uppercuts.

The sustainability of such a low line drive rate is, of course, not in question. The worst full-year line drive percentage for a batting-title qualifier last year belonged to Hunter Pence with his 13.9% number. Iannetta will either get that number up or find himself working on his swing in Colorado Springs. The question, instead, is what this will mean for his development as one of the finer young offensive-minded catchers in the league. And there seems to be a mixed bag here.

Getting his fly ball percentage over his career 41.3% has to be considered a good thing, especially in Colorado. His fantasy owners like to see those home runs, and more fly balls naturally lead to more balls over the fences.

On the other hand, after extensive work with BABIP and line drive rate, the consensus on the interwebbings has it that the two statistics are positively correlated. If this is merely a temporary blip in line drive rate, Iannetta may still be on his way to being a guy that hits enough line drives to positively contribute in batting average while showing good power for his position. Even with his poor numbers to begin this year, his career line drive rate is a decent-to-good 19.3%, so the rosy scenario is still a likely scenario.

Should these 60 at-bats then change our mind about the other 607 Iannetta has accrued in Colorado to date? Probably not, but they do take a little rose off this bloom.

After striking out in 17.7% of his at-bats in the minor leagues, Iannetta has upped that number to 28% against the big boys and 33% this year. Pair the oscillating line drive rate with the burgeoning strike-out rate, and it seems that this young catcher will have to have a nice run of luck to get his batting average close to .300 in future seasons, to say nothing of this year.

The good news? At least the power is real!

Well, we’ve already taken a look at the top rookie pitchers in the American League, so let’s have a gander at the Senior Circuit’s best young hurlers. Warning: The depth amongst the starters is not as good as it is in the American League.

St. Louis’ Jason Motte was absolutely lights-out in spring training and won the closer’s role… as much as any rookie pitcher can win a role for manager Tony LaRussa. A couple shaky games later, though, he was on the outside looking in. Motte hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last nine appearances but veteran Ryan Franklin has established himself as the club’s closer. Middle relievers rarely receive consideration for the Rookie of the Year award, but you never know.

One of my pre-season favorites for the NL rookie pitcher of the year, James McDonald has struggled to say the least. He currently has an 8.16 ERA (6.17 FIP) and has pitched himself out of the starting rotation for the first-place Dodgers. McDonald’s lack of control has been his downfall as he’s walked 14 batters in 14.1 innings of work.

Jordan Zimmermann won the No. 5 spot in the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation in spring training, but the club did not need five starters until the middle of the first month so he began the year in Triple-A. Since being recalled, Zimmermann has pitched well in two of his three starts (The stinker came against St. Louis). The 2007 second round draft pick is still getting comfortable in the Majors and he’s allowed 20 hits and three walks in 17 innings of work. He’s also struck out 14 batters. Zimmermann needs to try and avoid the long ball (2.12 HR/9). When all is said and done, the right-hander could have the best numbers of any of the rookie pitchers in 2009 but it remains to be seen if the Rookie of the Year voters will lose him in the mess that is Washington. His teammate Shairon Martis is also having a nice season so far in the Nats rotation.

Like Scott Richmond of the Jays, Bobby Parnell is another talented rookie hurler that gets overlooked despite playing in a large market like New York, likely because he is a middle reliever who gets a ton of outs by putting the ball in play. The right-hander has a 1.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 13 innings so far this season. He has walked just four batters with eight strikeouts and he hasn’t allowed a home run. Parnell still has room to get better as he has not been inducing quite as many groundballs as he traditionally does.

It’s no secret that I hate the fact Japanese players are eligible for the Rookie if the Year awards. Baltimore’s Koji Uehara, 34, and Atlanta’s Kenshin Kawakami, 33, have years of experience while playing in Japan. Uehara spent nine years in the Japanese Central League and is currently leading all MLB ‘rookies’ in innings pitched and strikeouts (by one over Richmond). Kawakami, 33, spent 10 years in the Japanese Central League. Despite the added experience, though, the right-hander has struggled with his control and currently has a 6.41 ERA (5.54 FIP) in 26.2 innings of work.

For the last few weeks, I have been focusing on the hitting side of things when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race in both the American and National Leagues. In this post, we are going to take a look at the pitchers currently in the running for the year-end award in the AL. It seems to be a down year for rookie pitchers, though, with the likes of Tampa Bay’s David Price still in the minors.

If you’re an ERA fan, then Trevor Cahill’s 4.50 would probably lead you think, “OK, not great but it could be worse.” Well it is. The Oakland right-hander has allowed 27 hits and 18 walks in just 26 innings of work. He’s also added just eight strikeouts. With a line-drive rate of 24 percent, BABIP of .269, and a FIP of 6.37, he’s been lucky (while playing in a big home park) and he’s been bailed out by the defenders behind him. The 21-year-old could probably use a little more polish in the minors.

Cahill’s teammate Brett Anderson has also had a rough go of things so far this year. Coming into the season, the 21-year-old lefty was considered a more advanced pitcher than most players his age but he’s still learning. Anderson has a 5.79 ERA (5.00 FIP) and has allowed 33 hits and nine walks in 28 innings of work. He’s also struck out an uncharacteristically low 4.5 batters per nine innings. In fairness, he’s faced three very tough lineups in Texas, Boston and New York (AL). Anderson is getting opponents to pound the ball into the ground (55.7 GB%) and they also are not hitting the ball with consistent authority against him (10.3 LD%). He’s going to see some good results soon.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello is another player who has been rushed to the Majors, after spending all of last season in high A-ball. The right-hander currently has allowed 28 hits and nine walks in 28.2 innings of work. Porcello has a 4.71 ERA (5.80 FIP) in his five starts. The six home runs allowed are worrisome (1.88 HR/9) but his groundball rate is good (52.1 GB%).

The sixth overall pick from the 2005 draft, Ricky Romero is still trying to live up to that lofty standard. In his first three starts of the season – after surprising everyone by nailing down a rotation spot in spring training – Romero was outstanding. He posted a 1.71 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 19 hits and just four walks in 21 innings of work. Unfortunately, he injured his oblique and hasn’t pitched since April 19. Fortunately for Toronto, he should be back within two weeks. The talent is there, he just needs to trust his stuff and hope he’s finally turned the corner with his command and control.

There may not be a rookie in the Majors who is flying more under the radar than Romero’s teammate Scott Richmond. The Canadian is a great story as a 29-year-old rookie. He took three years off school after high school and did not graduate from Oklahoma State University until he was 25, so he went undrafted. The Jays noticed him while he was pitching in independent baseball in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Within one year of signing, he pitched 27 innings for the Jays in 2008. So far this year, he has allowed 25 hits and 12 walks in 30.1 innings. He also has 26 strikeouts. Among MLB rookies, Richmond is second in strikeouts and innings pitched, as well as first in ERA and wins. He’s 12th in all of baseball in ERA amongst starters with at least 30 innings pitched.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

With 13 whiffs and no walks, Mo has been his typically dominant self. He’s given up 2 homers in 9.2 innings (half of his total in each of the past two seasons), but there’s no cause for concern here.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon just hasn’t quite been himself this season: he’s issued 7 walks in 12 innings, just one fewer free pass than he gave up in 69.1 IP in 2008. Opposing batters seem content to wait Boston’s closer out, swinging at 47.5% of his pitches thus far (55.6% in 2008).

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood is racking up the K’s (16 in 10 IP), but he has also walked 5 and owns a -0.14 WPA. As with Papelbon, opponents are keeping the bat on the shoulder more often as Wood works out his control kinks: his outside swing percentage (31.3% last year) is just 19.7% in 2009. Cleveland’s ‘pen has been as prone to fluctuation as any unit in recent memory, and ’09 has been a down year: Indians relievers own the third worst WPA mark in the big leagues, at -2.89.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria returned from bout with shoulder soreness to complete a five-out appearance on May 2nd against the Twins. He racked up a save the following night, and now boasts a 1.62 FIP in 7.2 innings.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

6-for-6 in save ops, Jenks has an 8/4 K/BB in 9 innings pitched. His fastball velocity is up a tick from 2008 (from 93.8 to 94.8), though his outside-swing% is down for the third straight season (29.9% in ’07, 28.3 in ’08 and 23.5 in ’09).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has served up a couple early-season dingers, but he’s been his usual stellar self. Nathan’s low-to-mid-90’s heat and sharp high-80’s slider have gotten batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone 35.5% of the time (24.4% MLB average), which ranks in the top 10 among all relievers.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco has been untouchable in 2009: 8-for-8 in save chances, Francisco has yet to be scored upon in 13.2 innings of work. His 1.82 WPA leads all relievers, and he’s inducing outside swings at a higher rate than in recent years (30 outside swing%; 22.3% career average).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Battling the flu, Ziegler made his first appearance since April 25th last night (hey, it beats pulling your calf). With all the maladies afflicting Garciaparra, Chavez, Ellis and Casilla, among others, I’d bring my own shaman to the ballpark if I were an Athletic. Ziegler struck out two in a scoreless inning against the Angels last night, and has not surrendered a run in his last 8.1 innings pitched.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow on DL), Mariners

Morrow hit the DL with biceps tendinitis, but he’s expected back during the weekend or early next week. Aardsma gets the call until then. The erstwhile Cub, Giant, White Sock and Red Sock has shown why teams continue to be intrigued by his hard fastball/slider combo (11 K in 12. IP), but also why so many clubs have given up on him (8 BB).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes is missing bats (13 K in 9.2 innings), and his FIP is an adequate 3.70. However, a mind-warping .457 BABIP has made the new Angels stopper look like a punching bag (6.52 ERA). Not that everything is hunky-dory: he’s located just 44.3% of his pitches for strikes (52.3% career average), which helps explain the four walks.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is doing everything in his power to keep the ninth-inning glamour role for good. In 15.1 frames, he has a ridiculous 20/0 K/BB ratio, and he’s been scored upon just twice. His FIP is 0.77, with a near-70 percent groundball rate. Hitters are flailing at Downs’ sinker/curve mix, with a 38.5% outside-swing% that ranks 6th among all relievers.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill is officially on the ropes as Baltimore’s stopper, not a shocking development given his 2 blown saves and 3 dingers allowed in 11.2 frames. Ray, toting mid-90’s cheese and a mid-80’s slider, has whiffed 10 batters in 8.1 frames, though he’s also walked 4 (3 unintentionally).

Johnson (0.62) and Baez (0.42) rank one and two in terms of Baltimore WPA, though Baez is said not to be a candidate at the moment. Mostly a high-priced disaster with the O’s, Baez has a 13/5 K/BB ratio in 15.2 innings this year. Johnson, meanwhile, continues to post mediocre peripherals while posting superficially impressive ERA’s (2.45 ERA, 4.45 FIP in 2009).

Troy Percival, Rays

Percival racked up just about the easiest save he’ll ever get yesterday, retiring one Orioles batter. The 39 year-old has worked just 7.2 innings in 9 appearances, throwing less than a full frame on three occasions.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Would you believe that Rodney (he of 4.43 career BB/9) actually leads all relievers in first-pitch strike percentage, at 82.1%? The typically combustible flame-thrower has tossed 60.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (fourth among all relievers), and he’s walked just one batter in 10 innings. Rodney has surrendered 5 runs, but with a 3.38 FIP (the lowest of his career), he really hasn’t been half bad.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies

With 4 taters surrendered in 10.2 IP, Lidge has already served up double the amount of homers in 2009 as he did during the 2008 season. Just as his wacky-low 3.9 HR/FB% from last year was bound to rise, his 28.6 HR/FB% in ’09 will inevitably drop. Attempting to pitch through pain in his right knee, Lidge has seen his fastball velocity dip a few MPH (94.3 in ’08, 92.8 in ’09), while posting a first-pitch strike percentage of just 46.2 (57.7 MLB average).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has K’d 16 hitters in 11.2 frames, while going 7-for-7 in save ops. So far, Rodriguez has attempted to let opponents get themselves out: he’s thrown just 39.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (5th-lowest among relievers). While Rodriguez has walked six, hitters have acquiesced by chasing offerings outside of the zone 33.9% of the time (24.4 MLB average).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton just keeps on rolling: with an eye-popping 25 K’s in 14 IP, LA’s ninth-inning beast has punched out more batters per nine innings than any other reliever. 8-for-9 in save chances, Broxton holds the third-best WPA among relievers (1.32), and his 63.5% contact rate is fourth-lowest. When opponents aren’t helplessly swinging and missing, they’re chopping the ball into the infield dirt (57.9 GB%).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has yet to blow a save chance, with 8 saves in 8 opportunities. His 13/2 K/BB ratio in 10.2 IP has led to a 1.31 FIP and a 1.48 WPA that ranks second among all relievers. His mid-90’s gas and low-80’s slider are jamming hitters with great frequency: his IF/FB% is 30 percent.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Arizona’s covert closer has a dominant 14/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings, with a microscopic 0.68 FIP. His groundball rate is just absurd (78.3%), the product of a bushel of swings on outside pitches (his outside swing percentage is 34.6%). With the second-best first-pitch strike percentage among ‘pen arms (79.5%), Qualls is often getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first offering.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

After starting off the year strong (0 runs in his first 5.2 innings), Capps has gotten crunched in three straight appearances (a combined 7 runs in 2.2 innings), including a 4-run disaster piece against the Brewers on May 4th. Capps will be shut down for a few days with what’s being called a “minor elbow ailment.” The news is disconcerting, given the 25 year-old’s bout with shoulder bursitis last season that cost him about 2 months. Something is off-kilter: normally as precise as any reliever in the majors (with a career BB/9 of 1.48), Capps has issued 4 walks in 8.1 IP.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

After an ugly outing versus the Astros on April 27th (3 R and a loss), Cordero has tossed two scoreless innings. Last week, we noted that Cordero (throwing his mid-90’s fastball nearly three-quarters of the time) has essentially said to hitters, “I’m throwing as hard as I can, now try and hit it.” Thus far, that approach has led to a 2.18 FIP, but his GB% has fallen to 29.6%. Cordero as yet to allow a homer, but flyball tendencies typically don’t fly at Great American Ballpark.

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Valverde’s calf injury turned out to be more serious than expected, requiring the draining of fluid and a DL stint. In his stead, Hawkins will take on ninth innings duties. Worth noting: Hawkins’ strikeout rates had fallen through the floor in 2006 and 2007 (4.03 and 4.72 K/9, respectively), but that number rebounded to 6.97 in 2008 and sits at 8.53 in 12.2 IP this season. The 36 year-old never lost much fastball velocity during those down years, though he is relying more heavily on a high-80’s slider over the past two seasons.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has battled his control a bit over his last two appearances, walking 3 in 2.1 IP in two appearances versus the Rockies. While Wilson isn’t known for his fine touch, he’s not a walk-the-yard type, either. Yet, hitters just aren’t swinging at what Wilson offers. Last week, we noted his rapidly decreasing outside-swing% (down to just 13.9% in ’09). Batters are also increasingly laying off pitches over the plate (his Z-Swing% is 57.6%, compared to the 65.7% MLB average). Overall, opponents have offered at just 34.1% of Wilson’s pitches, second-lowest among all relievers. What gives, Giants fans?

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

So, far, so good for Hoffman. He has a 5/0 K/BB ratio and 4 saves in 5 innings. The sample size is too small to glean a whole lot from, but Hoffman (an extreme flyball pitcher) has a 66.7 GB%. Also, he’s decreased the use of his signature changeup for the second straight season, mixing in more sliders in its place.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Lindstrom has four clean appearances since the unmitigated disaster that was his April 24th appearance against the Phillies. Still, his season totals will be feeling the pain for months to come: his FIP is 6.38, and his WPA is -0.41. Such is the life of the reliever: one bad appearance can put a serious damper on your numbers.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel (once off the DL), Nationals

Can we rule out anyone here, really? Collectively, Nats relievers have a macabre -3.24 WPA, worst in the major leagues. Kip Wells (he of a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 9 IP) is the “leader” in the WPA clubhouse, with 0.38. Bring us your busted prospects (Hinckley, Mock), your retreads (Wells, Tavarez), your discarded Fish (Kensing). Where art thou, Joe Beimel? Beimel will probably get a shot once he’s off the DL, by process of elimination.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Gonzalez has pitched relatively well thus far, with 16 K’s in 9.2 IP. Unfortunately, his .444 BABIP has led to a crappy 4.66 ERA. Gonzo’s control will likely always keep him from being a truly elite reliever, but he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Gregg just hasn’t located his pitches: with 9 free passes in 12.2 IP and just 41.8 percent of his offerings coming across the dish (10th-worst among relievers), he has a -0.07 WPA and a 5.15 FIP. Luckily for Gregg, his principal competition (Carlos Marmol) has walked 9 batters in his last 4.1 IP while battling a balky knee.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

What in the name of closer facial hair has gotten into Franklin? The historically underpowered 36 year-old has a 10/2 K/BB ratio in 11.1 frames, with 7 saves and nary a run allowed. Throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, change and a splitter, Franklin has never punched out more than 6.89 batters per nine innings (all the way back in 2001 with the M’s), and his career whiff rate sits at 4.89. Color me skeptical, but his 1.30 WPA ranks 4th among relievers.

Huston Street, Rockies

Talk about a bad week: Manny Corpas goes from closer to one false step away from Colorado Springs. Corpas surely hasn’t been a clamp-down reliever, but his FIP (4.02) is considerably better than his 6.75 ERA. When balls put in play are falling for hits at a Ted Williams-like pace (.404 BABIP), you’re going to struggle.

Street, meanwhile, is back in the saddle after a similar demotion in April. His K/BB ratio is strong (12/2 in 11.1 IP), but he’s surrendered 3 homers already, which has led to a 5.56 ERA. Neither one of these guys has been as arson-worthy as they appear at first glance, though both also fall short of qualifying as late-inning assets.