Hopefully you were able to pick up Brett Cecil and J.J. Hardy last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ramon Hernandez – Throughout his career, Hernandez has delivered solid HR totals for a catcher. In his last three seasons, he averaged nearly 16 HR per season. So far this year, Hernandez has only one homer. The Great American Ball Park is the sixth-best park for HR this year, according to the single-season park factors at ESPN. Hernandez is not hitting as many fly balls as he has recently, but the falloff has not been dramatic (only 1.5% below last year) and he should deliver more power going forward.

Matt Harrison – After giving up 15 ER in his first 14.2 IP, Harrison has allowed just six ER in his last 30 innings. It would be nice if he struck out a few more batters, but his BABIP is .301, he gets groundballs (1.40 GB/FB) and he has a 0.81 HR/9. The big lefty averages nearly 91 with his fastball, throws four pitches and his FIP is almost identical to his ERA.

Billy Butler – In his first 18 games of the season, Butler had a .193 AVG with zero HR and three RBIs. Since then he has a .348-3-15-15-0 fantasy line, also in 18 games. Butler arrived in the majors with a reputation of being a good hitter with limited defensive value. He has found a home at first base and the bat may be finally coming around. Butler probably won’t hit enough HR to be a starting first baseman but should have a good average and double-digit HRs.

Brian Tallet – A reliever at the beginning of the year, Tallet moved into the rotation on April 24th and has pitched very well as a starter in four of his five outings. The lone bad start was a meltdown, in which he allowed 10 ER in four innings, and that is keeping his overall numbers high. Tallet is owned in less than two percent of ESPN leagues and is a nice pickup for the back of your rotation.

Matt Holliday – Overrated at the beginning of the year with an ADP of 12, Holliday compounded things by getting off to a terrible start. But the average is starting to pick up and he has hit three HR in May after posting zero in April. Clearly, he is not going to be the fantasy stud that he was in Colorado, but ZiPS projects him to hit .284 with 19 HR and 77 RBIs the rest of the season.

Trade

Russell Branyan – A near lock to post career highs in every single fantasy category, Branyan is unlikely to keep up his current rate of production. No one ever doubted his power but his .368 BABIP and .333 ISO are unsustainable over a full season. A platoon or bench player throughout his career, Branyan has done it for six-plus weeks now as a full-time player and there should be a market for his bat, especially from an owner light on HR.

Jered Weaver – In his last six games, Weaver has five Quality Starts. But he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Overall, he has a .228 BABIP and an 84.1 percent strand rate. Weaver has had an ERA within 0.50 of his FIP the past two seasons but this year his FIP is 4.10 compared to a 2.59 ERA.

Pedro Feliz – He has never been a good hitter for average because his BABIP has never topped .300 in any season in which he played more than 10 games. This year it sits at .343 which has led to a .308 AVG. Feliz used to be a consistent power source. He hit between 20-22 HR in four straight seasons but saw his power output drop to 14 last year. His FB% is in decline and he will need to reverse that trend (and hope for a regression in his HR/FB rate) just to match 2008’s output.

Wandy Rodriguez – One of the top fantasy pitchers so far in 2009, Rodriguez has flown somewhat under the radar due to the fantastic starts by Zack Greinke and Johan Santana. Most of Rodriguez’ numbers do not scream out regression but they are all better than career norms, which has a nice overall effect. The one exception is that he has not allowed a single HR this season in 52 IP, despite playing half his games in Minute Maid Park, which is the third-best park for HR this year.

Fred Lewis – Last year Lewis proved he could handle a full-time role and he opened the year in the coveted third-spot in the Giants’ lineup. Since then he has hit for a solid average but not produced much in other categories. Lewis has also bounced around in the lineup, batting every slot in the order except cleanup. That makes it hard to predict his R, RBI and SB going forward. ZiPS does not see him improving on last year’s numbers and even sees him falling off in AVG. Trade him now while his .294 AVG still looks good.

Baltimore’s Matt Wieters, 23, is the best backstop prospect in all of professional baseball. He hit more than .350 last year with 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 82 walks, while splitting time between high-A and double-A.

But Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia was pretty good too. Playing at the same levels in 2008, the 23-year-old catcher hit .298 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI. His downfall, though, was his walk rate, which saw him take a free pass only 18 times in 510 at-bats.

Both catchers began 2009 in triple-A and both players had slow starts to the season, although Wieters was also hampered by a minor injury. Arencibia’s struggles may have been related to his approach at the plate and the better (smarter?) pitching he’s now facing. If you know a guy is going to swing at everything and won’t take a walk, why give him something to hit?

In 133 at-bats this season, Arencibia is hitting .314 when he’s ahead in the count. When he’s behind, though, he has a .179 average with zero walks. In April, Toronto’s top hitting prospect (now that Travis Snider is in Toronto) batted .224/.257/.358 with no home runs and no walks in 67 at-bats.

Fast-forward to May 19, though, and Arencibia is hitting .288/.356/.697 for the month (66 at-bats). Overall, his numbers have improved to a respectable .256/.308/.526 in 133 at-bats. He’s also slammed seven home runs this month. In his last 10 games, Arencibia is hitting .385 and has five of those home runs in just 39 at-bats.

Can we see any reasons why the numbers have improved? Well, it could be the warmer weather (although the club plays its home games in Las Vegas). It could be that his luck is improving and the BABIP (.257) is starting to creep up to where it should be. But it could also be the seven walks that the catcher has taken in May (16 games). The walks don’t directly equal success, obviously. But it means Arencibia is being more patient, seeing more pitches – and quite possibly hitting better pitches.

Only 16 picks separated Wieters, a Georgia Tech graduate, and Arencibia, from the University of Tennessee, in the first round of the 2007 draft. Wieters, selected fifth overall, will no doubt reach the Majors first – but Arencibia should not be far behind, especially if he continues to show a willingness to be more patience and selective at the plate.

A question in the mailbag from L. S. this week ended simply: Is Jorge De La Rosa for real?

His 2.99 FIP seems to suggest that his good start is for real, but ZiPS has him putting up a 4.71 ERA for the rest of the season. Perhaps this is a nod to his 5.32 career ERA. Many projection systems have trouble with breakout seasons, however, and there’s ample evidence that we are actually witnessing just such a step forward from a talented pitcher that could be peaking in his 27th year on the planet.

For one, the ‘luck’ numbers do not point definitively towards an unsustainable start to the year. His 69.1% strand rate is close to the league average as well as his own average (67.7%). His BABIP is .298, and while that is lower than his career .325 number, it doesn’t scream luck, especially given the small sample size.

Sure, this sample size also could be skewing his strikeout and walk rates, but for now they are both (9.49 K/9; 3.38 BB/9) right near the rates he put up in 130 innings of 4.06 FIP baseball last year (8.86 K/9, 4.29 BB/9). If the trend holds steady, the rates also show a natural progression that is encouraging. His strikeout rate has improved for three straight years, and his walk rate is at its lowest in his career. That’s good work if it proves to be true.

The only ‘luck’ worries come from his fly ball numbers. He’s sporting a 26.8% infield fly rate, and as those balls turn into long fly balls, his 4.9% HR/FB number should rise up to his 10.3% rate. The surprising thing is that with such a great HR/9 number (0.42), De La Rosa can actually continue to be productive – even if he doubles his home runs per nine as his career number suggest he will.

Why all the optimism? What’s changed? In short, this young Rockies pitcher has changed his entire approach to pitching over the past years.

Take a look at his pitch selection, and the difference between now and his first extended burn in 2007 is stark. When he came into the league, De La Rosa was throwing his 92-93 MPH fastball 62.3% of the time, and his 83 MPH slider 1.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing those two pitches 56.1% and 23.3% of the time, respectively. He’s also cut his use of his 75 MPH curveball in half, from 13.1% to 6.5% this year.

A peek at his most recent pitch F/X game graph gives us some insight into this changed usage pattern. Take a look at his release points.

Despite a consistent release point for most of his pitches, De La Rosa lets his curve ball go at a distinctly higher point than his other pitches. This could lead to batters identifying the pitch early and laying off.

Now take a look at the movement of his pitches.

Given that the curve ball has the most horizontal and vertical movement of any of his pitches, it also follows that the curve ends up being called a ball many times, especially if batters are noticing the different release point and watching it into the catcher’s glove. It also makes sense that his most effective three pitches might be the three that release at the same spot and break as differently as his fastball, changeup and slider do.

Could it be that his reduced walk rate can be attributed to his reduced use of the curveball? Correlation is of course not causation, so it’s hard to say without knowing the strike percentage of each of his pitches. But De La Rosa is a changed pitcher – that much seems clear. And that counts as a good thing.

Just dropping off a few links on a beautiful Monday afternoon around most of the baseball world. I’ll be back Wednesday with another “meta analysis.” There are nine games on tap today.

Chien-Ming Wang appears ready to rejoin the Yankees. He’s thrown 16 scoreless innings over two rehab starts for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and will quickly get to work on lowering his 34.50 ERA and 10.39 FIP once he’s activated.

Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com discusses “The Renaissance of Jason Bartlett.” After being named team MVP last season despite overly unimpressive numbers, he’s batting .370 (.433 wOBA) with five home runs and 17 RBI in 135 at-bats.

The boys over at FakeTeams.com analyze Joe Mauer’s impressive power surge. He’s batting .429/.529/.804 with six home runs in 15 games since returning from the disabled list. For a guy who has just one double-digit home run season, he’s on quite the tear.

Brad Evans of Yahoo! Sports believes the “rollercoaster ride will continue” this season with Clayton Kershaw, citing his 4.7 BB/9 and 0.93 GB/FB ratio.

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority finds 18 pitchers with high BABIP rates. These guys are poised for a rise in WHIP and make for nice sell-high candidates.

Dave Cameron has several lessons from week six over on the FanGraphs blog. Most notably for us fantasy buffs, Cameron points out that David Wright has begun raking. The third baseman hit .556/.625/.741 last week and stole five bases.

As always, if you find something of interest, shoot me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

The Boston Red Sox pitching depth is just getting ridiculous. This past off-season, I took a look at the incredible number of starting pitchers that the organization has that are ready to pitch in the Majors (which includes Michael Bowden, who is currently dealing in triple-A).

That depth is now starting to spill over into the bullpen. The club recently recalled Daniel Bard from triple-A. The right-hander is arguably the top relief prospect in all of baseball. Bard’s emergence is truly impressive, considering he all but flamed out in 2007 while pitching in high-A ball as a starter at one of best hitter’s parks (and leagues) in professional baseball. He posted a walk rate of 14.85 BB/9 in 13.1 innings and allowed 21 hits. His ERA was 10.13. The now-23-year-old hurler was demoted down to low-A that year where he posted a 6.42 ERA in 61.2 innings.

Moved to the bullpen in 2008, Bard improved his walk rate to 1.29 in low-A ball, with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9, and then skipped over high-A and dominated double-A with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. At triple-A in 2009, he posted rates of 2.81 BB/9 and 16.31 K/9 in 16 innings of work. Bard allowed just six hits. His control is still iffy so there is room for improvement (which is a little scary to consider) and his mid-to-high-90s fastball is by far his best pitch, although the slider has improved a lot.

Now in the Red Sox bullpen, Bard will likely be used in low leverage situations (Thanks to the presence of Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and even Takashi Saito) and his previous experience as a starter will come in handy if the club needs to use him for two or three innings. There is no doubt, though, that he will be the club’s set-up man in the near future, as long as the improvements in his control hold (or improve). When Jonathan Papelbon’s time as closer expires for the Red Sox, Bard should be ready to assume that role as well.

With his high strikeout totals and dominating stuff, Bard will no doubt be of great value to fantasy baseball owners in the not-too-distant future. Just be patient.

Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ATL – Lowe
LAD – Billingsley
CIN – Cueto
ANA – Lackey
STL – Lohse
ARZ – Garland
MIL – Bush
WAS – Detwiler

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
ANA – Santana
CIN – Owings
ARZ – Augenstein
ATL – Reyes

Lowe has won his last four decisions and has a Quality Start in four of his last five games. He is walking a few more batters than you would like, but is making up for it with a fantastic HR/FB rate of five percent and a strand rate of 72.4 percent, his highest since 2002.

Billingsley has a Quality Start in all eight outings and has actually given up fewer home runs than Lowe, allowing just one HR in 54.2 innings.

Cueto is off to a fantastic start but his FIP (3.69) is nearly two runs higher than his ERA (1.93). His 89.6 percent strand rate is second in the majors among starters, trailing only Greinke.

Lackey gets the two-start week after being ejected after just two pitches in his season debut on Saturday. He struck out eight batters in 9.2 innings during two minor league rehab games at Triple-A. Lackey opened the season on the DL with a forearm strain.

Lohse is 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA at home this season and he gets two starts at Busch Stadium III this week, squaring off against Milwaukee and Kansas City.

Garland is the anti-Lohse, pitching much better on the road than at Chase Field. All five of his HR allowed happened at home. Meanwhile his road ERA stands at 1.35 in two games. He pitches at Florida and at Oakland this week.

Bush has nice numbers this season except for his HR/9 rate, which checks in at 1.53 after eight games. He has road starts at Houston and at Minnesota. According to ESPN park factors, Minute Maid Park has the third highest park factor for homers while the Metrodome ranks 19th.

Detwiler is a lefty who has hit 95 mph in the minors. Last year in the Hi-A Carolina League, he recorded a 53.4 percent groundball rate. Detwiler had an 0-3 record this year in Double-A, but he had a 2.96 ERA and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.

What the heck is up with Michael Young? He’s suddenly hitting like a… third baseman. The shortstop-turned-third baseman (Who was vehemently against the move this past off-season) has seen a huge spike in his power numbers this season for the Texas Rangers.

2008: .402 SLG | .118 ISO | 7.2% HR/Fly Ball
2009: .597 SLG | .243 ISO | 20.6% HR/Fly Ball

Those are pretty big increases in three key power indicators. Right now, Young is on pace for more than 30 home runs this year, with a career high of 24 in 2005. His slugging percentage was also a career-high that season at .513 and his isolated power rate was .183. Impressively, Young’s 2009 strikeout and walk rates are right around his career averages of 6.7 BB% and 16.1 K%. His batted-ball rates are also right in line with his career averages.

A lot has been made about improved team defense being the sole reason for the team’s success this season, but Young’s offensive output from third base is a huge improvement over last season – especially when you also include his batting average of .354. In 2008, career utility player Ramon Vazquez played 70 games at the hot corner and had the best offensive season of his career while hitting .290/.365/.430 with six homers in 347 at-bats. The Rangers also fielded a number of fill-in third basemen including Travis Metcalf, and German Duran – as well as the former third-baseman-of-the-future Hank Blalock, now the club’s full-time designated hitter.

The good news for fantasy owners is that Young’s increased power numbers appear to be for real and there is no sign that they are a fluke. As well, sandwiched in between Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton, Young has plenty of protection in the lineup, which will keep hurlers from pitching around him. It also gives him plenty of opportunities to both drive in runs and score runs. The 32-year-old infielder appears to be in the midst of a career year, and fantasy owners should hold tight and enjoy the ride.

Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp looks like a star. A 6-2, 230 pounder with a breath-taking power/speed combo, Kemp made his major league debut back in 2006 after mashing in the upper levels of the minors (including a career .350/.403/.551 showing at AAA). Kemp was understandably raw as a 21 year-old rookie back in ’06, with a .317 wOBA and a .253/.289/.448 line in 166 PA.

In 2007, Los Angeles’ sixth-round pick in the 2003 draft posted a sweet .383 wOBA, compiling a .342/.373/.521 triple-slash in 311 PA. In retrospect, it should have been apparent that Kemp’s output was a little over his head: his BABIP was an obscene .417. Kemp is an athletic sort who has generally posted high BABIP’s in the minors and majors, but a Ted Williams-like showing when the ball is put in play isn’t something that one can depend on.

With some correction on the BABIP front (.363), Kemp’s wOBA fell to .349 (.290/.340/.459) in 657 PA during his first full season’s worth of hacks at the big league level. However, while his 2008 campaign might look mildly disappointing on the surface, Kemp made strides in terms of controlling the strike zone. His walk rate increased from 5.2% in 2007 to 7.1% in 2008, and his Outside Swing Percentage dipped from a Francoeur-like 36.4% to 31.5% (the average was 25.4% in 2008). His Isolated Power remained largely the same (.178 in ’07, .168 in ’08).

The 25 year-old has further refined his approach in 2009. His wOBA is back up to .380 (.295/.365/.496 in 156 PA), and while his BABIP is .381, there’s reason to believe that he can sustain that level of production. Kemp’s walk rate has jumped again, up to a healthy 9.7%. The increased number of free passes relates to a further drop in chasing pitches off the plate or in the dirt: Kemp’s Outside Swing Percentage of 24.6% is right around the 24.4 percent major league average this season. In addition to the patience, Kemp has a career-high .201 ISO.

It’s been fascinating to watch the diverging paths that Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur have taken since breaking into the majors. Both were big, tools-laden hitters with ample right-handed pop from well-regarded farm systems. Yet, one stands on the verge of stardom, while the other hacked his way back to Mississippi for a brief period last summer. Kemp is essentially the anti-Francoeur: the toolsy youngster who has added polish to his game, only getting better as time goes on.

Kevin Slowey shows us that it’s not enough to just not walk guys. If your stuff is hittable, batters will earn their bases on the field.

That said, Slowey had a very nice year last year, and with a K/9 right around the league average (6.90 K/9), there was some hope that he would build on the campaign and take another step forward this year.

So far, fans and fantasy managers are still waiting for that step forward. Instead, Slowey’s strikeout rate has fallen almost a full run (6.02), and his 1.54 WHIP is full of dinks, dunks and blasts. It’s certainly not walks, as Slowey still sports an elite walk rate (0.89 BB/9). The question lingers: how much of this poor start is lousy luck and how much is due to mediocre stuff?

Luck has surely played a big part. His BABIP is .370 and his FIP is 4.44, so his ERA is a little bloated by the luck of the bounce. But even the secondary statistics can’t agree about his luck. He’s sporting a 35.4% infield fly ball rate, which is unsustainably lucky (it’s 15% for his career). Also, he’s stranding 76.6% of his baserunners, which is slightly lucky. And for a guy with a career home run rate over 1 per game, his 10.8% home run per fly ball rate is very neutral.

He’s also giving up a career high 24.1% line drive rate, which is a good spot to start talking about his stuff. With an 89 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, a 74 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, there’s just not enough differentiation in speed between his pitches to really keep the hitters off balance. He’s usually in the zone (see his walk rate), and his 91.3% contact rate in the zone puts him at 24th worst in the league in that category. (Teammate Glen Perkins ‘leads’ the league with batters making contact on 98% of pitches inside the zone, and Nick Blackburn is 23rd, so there’s something in the water in Minnesota, it seems.)

A quick look at some pitch F/X samples doesn’t provide too many clues. Slowey’s slider is actually breaking a couple inches more this year, and the rest of his stuff seems intact, with one major caveat. Slowey has lost almost a mile per hour on his fastball (89.9 to 89.2). His slider has lost one and a half miles per hour (85.7 to 84.1). Since he wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, and his stuff isn’t very fierce either, this slight velocity loss may be some of the reason for his poor start this year. Without more velocity history, it’s hard to tell if this is a temporary blip or not, but a peek at his next pitch f/x data would be a good idea for those thinking of acquiring him. A few ‘90’s on the gun would serve him well.

Another interesting question that arises when looking at Slowey’s numbers is if he should pitch outside the zone a little more. Batters are reaching on 26.2% of his offerings outside the strike zone, a number in line with his past (25.9% career). That number also puts him right next to such strikeout luminaries as Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy. Since batters make contact on 72.9% on those pitches, it may be possible that Slowey could expand his zone a little for better results.

Baltimore Orioles fans must live a peculiar existence these days, with one eye on the Jones’ and Markakis’ of the major league squad and the other eye fixed squarely on the minor league box scores, checking up on the Wieters’, Tillman’s and Matusz’s of the system.

It would be difficult to fault anyone for taking such an approach. Residing in baseball’s most challenging division, the O’s currently sit at 16-21, with a -30 run differential that ranks dead last in the American League. The main culprit has been the starting rotation. Calling upon fellows named “Eaton” and “Hendrickson”, Baltimore has gotten a collective 5.41 FIP from its starters, which ranks ahead of only the homer-happy Phillies group.

However, not all is bleak. The Orioles appear to have landed themselves a quality starter on the free agent market this past winter in Koji Uehara.

A Japanese import, Uehara came stateside with the reputation for pounding the strike zone. He’s done just that, with 7 unintentional free passes in 42.2 innings pitched (1.48 BB/9). The 34 year-old right-hander has been as adept as any starter in terms of getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first pitch. His 69.4 First-Pitch Strike Percentage is significantly above the 57.7% major league average, and ranks behind only Arizona’s Dan Haren (71.6%) among all starters.

While no one will mistake Uehara for a power pitcher, he’s no weakling out there either. The former Yomiuri Giant has managed to strike out 6.75 batters per nine innings, giving him a sterling 4.57 K/BB ratio that places 7th among starters. Uehara’s repertoire is expansive: in addition to an 87.2 MPH fastball (used 56.6% of the time), he unleashes an 82 MPH cutter (6.7%) and a 66.1 MPH curveball (81.7 MPH). Of course, his bread-and-butter offering is a dastardly 79.3 MPH splitter, a strikeout pitch thrown 32.5% of the time (our pitch data also shows him throwing a few changeups, but those are likely splitters as well).

That splitter offers great contrast to his rather modest heater. Uehara’s fastball actually has a significant amount of vertical movement for a pitch thrown at such velocity, with 12.2 inches of vertical break compared to a pitch thrown without spin. His splitter, in contrast, has 6.3 inches of vertical movement (Pitch F/X classifies it as a changeup, but most everyone refers to it as a splitter).

Take a look at this release point chart from Uehara’s last start against the Yankees, on May 10th. Notice how his release points on the fastball and splitter (called a changeup here) overlap:

Now, note the pronounced difference between Uehara’s fastball and splitter, in terms of vertical movement (focus on the green and orange dots):

The two pitches come out of a similar arm slot, with about a 7 MPH difference in velocity. Yet, one drops a half-foot more than the other at the last moment. That’s deceptive, and has likely contributed to Uehara garnering a good deal of swings on outside pitches. His Outside-Swing Percentage sits at 30.8, above the 24.4% MLB average.

Uehara does have one flaw. Namely, his penchant for putting the ball in the air. As one might expect from a guy working up in the zone with mid-to-high-80’s cheddar, Uehara has posted one of the lowest groundball rates in the big leagues. His 26.3% mark is second only to Ted Lilly (23.6%). That flyball-centric approach has led to 1.27 home runs per nine innings.

Koji Uehara did not venture to the majors with near the same degree of fanfare as some recent Japanese players, but he has acclimated himself about as well as one could have hoped for. With a 4.04 FIP and a nasty splitter, Uehara will hold the fort until Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and company are ready for prime time.