The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.

If you mentioned the name “Erik Bedard” to a Mariners fan during the 2008 season, odds are you would have received a menacing glare, followed perhaps by a desultory comment or two about your lineage. Bedard was baseball’s version of Lord Voldemort, “He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named” for fear that doing so would force the cosmos to swoop in and pilfer another round of Mariners prospects.

Then under the command of unsteady hand Bill Bavasi, the M’s acquired Bedard prior to the ’08 season using fuzzy math: “88 wins plus studly southpaw equals playoffs.” Unfortunately, Seattle was not working with an 88-win talent base: going by the club’s runs scored (798) and allowed (825), the Mariners should have finished at a run-of-the-mill 79-83.

Seattle expended two immense young talents to acquire the powerful-but-fragile lefty, sending rangy center fielder Adam Jones and right-hander Christopher Tillman to the O’s, along with Anthony Butler, Kameron Mickolio and George Sherrill. While Jones was busy covering wide swaths of territory in the bigs and Tillman was beating up Double-A batters at age 20, Bedard tossed all of 81 frames for the M’s (only 28 more than Sherrill did out of the ‘pen for Baltimore).

Bedard was a force for the O’s in ’07, utilizing his low-90’s gas and power curve to post a 3.19 FIP and 5.4 Value Wins (that after compiling 5 wins in 2006). But in ’08, you name it, Bedard hurt it: hip, back and shoulder injuries caused the Canadian to turn in just 1.1 Value Wins. His whiff rate, which spiked to nearly 11 per nine innings in 2008, fell to 8 per nine, and he handed out 4.11 BB/9. The result was a 4.32 FIP- not exactly the desired return when you part with years of cost-controlled goodness from two top-notch farm products.

After a hectic offseason that included rumors of a serious shoulder injury and the possibility of the M’s washing their hands of Bedard by non-tendering him, the 30 year-old has rocketed out of the gate in 2009. In 13.1 innings, Bedard has flummoxed batters with a 15/1 K/BB ratio and just 9 hits allowed.

No grand conclusions should be drawn from two starts against the Twins and A’s, but Bedard has induced swinging strikes on 12.3% of his pitches (8.9% in 2008; the league average is 7.8%). His sweeping curve was superb against Oakland (check out the BrooksBaseball.net Pitch F/X tool-it’s a great resource), with over eight inches of dropping action as well as nearly 7 inches of horizontal break. His fastball also had plenty of tailing action, and he threw the pitch for a strike nearly 70% of the time. In Bedard’s stellar outing versus the Twinkies, he located his breaking ball for a strike almost 84% of the time.

Bedard will need to contribute far more than two great starts in April for the sting of the Jones/Tillman trade to even begin to fade (it likely never will), but a healthy Bedard (along with Felix Hernandez) would give the M’s one of the better one-two punches in the American League. His injury history is too lengthy to ignore, but Bedard could provide ace-level production at a discount for owners, given the sour taste he left in the mouths of many in 2008.

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Versus Kansas City and RHP Gil Meche

At-Bat 1:

Stock Up

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Colorado’s uber-rangy shortstop inked a six-year, $31 million pact last winter on the heels of a studly debut season in 2007 (5.3 Value Wins), but a quadriceps injury hurt his fleetness afield and contributed to a rather quiet year at the plate (.313 wOBA, -10.1 Batting Runs) in ’08. Tulo’s off to a good start thus far, popping 3 homers in the early portion of the 2009 season.

Alberto Callaspo, Royals

With eight-figure hacker Jose Guillen hitting the DL with a groin injury, the “Mark Teahen, second baseman” experiment will likely be put on hold until late-April. With Teahen shifting back to right field, Callaspo will soak up some at-bats and play second in the interim. The erstwhile D-Back prospect isn’t especially patient at the dish and his power is downright Bloomquistian. However, he does make a ton of contact and could be worth a shot in deeper leagues. Think Mark Grudzielanek.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carpenter turned back the clock to 2006 this past week, beating up on the Pirates in a seven-inning masterpiece. Carp generated a boatload of groundballs and allowed nary a walk, all while tossing six different offerings. We shouldn’t infer too much from one outing, but a mended Carpenter would be a game-changer for both the Cardinals and fantasy owners.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Swisher was pegged by many to bounce back from a “down” year at the plate in 2008 (very little changed in his offensive profile, save for a flukish dip in BABIP from .308 in ’07 to .251 in ’08). While it still remains to be seen how often he’ll be deployed, Swish has belted two early-season dingers to help his cause.

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

Bonifacio is rated as a “Stock Up” player here, but please folks, let’s not go overboard. There exists a tendency in the media to put a frame or a label around everything, trying to extract meaning from each and every event. Yes, Florida’s man at the hot corner has gotten off to a nice start, but he’s the same guy who has been traded twice and holds a career .278/.332/.384 minor league line. Because Bonifacio has gone 14-for-29 during the first week of the season, everyone notices. Had this hot streak occurred in mid-June, it’s possible that only Mama Bonifacio would be talking about it.

Seattle’s Erik Bedard clearly deserves mention here as well, but I’m planning something more extensive on the lefty for tomorrow.

Stock Down

Brett Myers, Phillies

Right now, Myers looks more like the guy demoted to Iron Pigdom last summer than Cole Hamels‘ strong sidekick. It’s not all bad (he has a 12/2 K/BB ratio), but Myers has served up 6 taters in 13 frames while throwing his 90 MPH heater less than 47% of the time. Brett won’t keep the insane 40 HR/FB% short of pitching in a Little League stadium, but hanging sliders and changeups are going to kill a pitcher in a park like Citizens Bank.

Josh Willingham, Nationals

Have you seen Josh Willingham? If so, please contact the Washington Nationals at 1500 South Capitol Street. “The Hammer” is currently hammered to the bench as a casualty of the Nats’ outfield glut, with 12 PA on the year.

Scott Lewis, Indians

Lewis entered the year with a job in the Indians’ rotation on the basis of a strong minor league track record and a plus changeup, but the flyball hurler with an unimposing fastball surrendered 2 big flys and 7 hits during his first start. He then was placed on the DL with a strained left forearm. Cleveland’s starting options might not be flashy, but there are a number of serviceable arms in waiting. The Ohio State product might have to wait for another shot.

Scott Olsen, Nationals

Have you seen Scott Olsen’s fastball? If so, contact the Nationals at 1500 South Capitol Street. Olsen was once among the brightest young moundsmen in the game, with low-90’s velocity and a promising slider, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff in recent years. The 25 year-old southpaw has mysteriously lost 4 MPH on his cheese since 2006, falling from 90.9 MPH to just 86.9 MPH in 2009. Finesse stuff with ordinary control- that’s a bad combination.

Carl Pavano, Indians

I suppose that Pavano should get a gold star for not injuring himself (save for the ego) during his first start of the 2009 season, but man, was it ugly: 1 inning, 6 hits, 9 runs. Pavano still has some time to turn things around (his incentive cash won’t start kicking in until around start number eighteen), but you’ll want to avoid the Big Apple punch line regardless.

As a switch-hitting backstop with an actual chance of inflicting some damage at the plate, Jarrod Saltalamacchia would enjoy a rather uninhibited path to playing time on the vast majority of major league clubs. However, “Salty” has happened to be property of two catching-rich organizations during the course of his professional career.

A sandwich pick (36th overall) by the Atlanta Braves in the 2003 amateur draft, Saltalamacchia (mostly dubbed “Salty” from here on, for the sake of my sanity and spell checkers everywhere) began his big league ascent with the GCL Braves. In 164 PA, the 6-4 catcher displayed sound strike-zone judgment, batting .239/.382/.396.

Baseball America ranked Salty as Atlanta’s 19th best prospect entering the 2004 season, trailing a second round pick in the ’02 draft named Brian McCann. “For the second straight year”, BA wrote, “the Braves believe they emerged with the draft’s best catcher.”

Making his full-season debut at Low-A Rome, Saltalamacchia impressed with a .272/.342/.437 line, popping 10 home runs in 357 PA. The 19 year-old again displayed a keen eye at the plate (10.5 BB%), though his near 26% K rate brought back some concerns about a longish swing. Salty also dealt with a sore wrist and hamstring.

Still, the campaign was a big positive overall, as Salty climbed to 9th on Atlanta’s prospect list (McCann also moved up, from 7th in ’04 to 3rd in ’05). While noting that his “receiving and footwork need further improvement”, BA believed that Saltalamacchia had “quieted skeptics who wondered if he’d be able to stay behind the plate.”

While Salty’s work in ’04 earned him some praise, it was his robust work in 2005 that really put him with the big boys on the prospect map. Playing at Myrtle Beach in the High-A Carolina League, Salty pulverized pitchers as a Pelican, showing secondary skills galore (.314/.394/.519 in 529 PA). He was downright Posada-like at the plate, drawing a walk 12.4% of the time while blasting 19 big flys. Even Salty’s whiff rate (21.6%) trended in the right direction.

Prior to the 2006 season, Saltalamacchia was honored as the best and brightest in the Braves system, and ranked as the 18th best prospect in the minors. As BA noted, “while Brian McCann was establishing himself as a quality young backstop in the majors, Saltalamacchia made a case for being the best catching prospect in the minors.”

Salty made his highly anticipated AA debut in 2006, but the results ended up falling short of what most were expecting. By no means was he bad, but a .230/.353/.380 showing on the heels of his studly work in ’05 left some feeling a bit let down.

On the positive side, his walk rate remained stellar (14.9 BB%) and a .150 ISO from a 21 year-old catcher is nothing to sneeze at. Salty’s .270 BABIP also pointed to some misfortune upon contact. There were other extenuating circumstances as well- a lingering wrist injury sapped his pop. In all, Salty’s work in ’06 was not near as disappointing as it looks upon first glance.

BA again rated Salty as Atlanta’s best farm talent in its 2007 Prospect Handbook, while also recognizing that an opportunity to showcase his skills with the team that drafted him might not come. Said BA, “Brian McCann is one of the best young catchers in baseball [he posted a .402 wOBA in ’06], and while Saltalamacchia is similarly gifted, there’s room for only one of them behind the plate in Atlanta.”

Salty smoked AA to begin the 2007 season (.452 wOBA in 94 PA), earning a big league call up in early May. He split his time between catcher and first base with the Braves, batting .284/.333/.411 in 153 PA.

BA’s comment about Salty not being long for Atlanta looked prescient, as Atlanta shipped their other highly-touted backstop to the Rangers during the summer as part of a stunning prospect haul for Mark Teixeira (that trade also netted Texas Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones). Salty again oscillated between opposite ends of the defensive spectrum with the Rangers, hitting .253/.352/.364 in 176 PA.

In 2008, Saltalamacchia dealt with a plethora of bumps and bruises, from a forearm injury to groin, hand and foot issues as well. Through all the cold tubs and Icy Hot, he batted .253/.352/.364 with a .319 wOBA. Salty worked the count well (13.5 BB%), but his Custian whiff rate (37.4 K%) and .388 BABIP were concerning.

Freed from McCann’s shadow, Salty is free to don the tools of ignorance without looking over his shoulder, right? Well, not necessarily. Former University of Texas star Taylor Teagarden is reputed to be one of the best defensive catchers in the game while lacking the thump to play another position, and Maximiliano Ramirez (himself a former Braves farm hand) shredded the Texas League in 2008 (his reputation behind the dish is much less acclaimed, however).

For now, it seems as though the Rangers are content to platoon Salty and Teagarden, with Teagarden taking on the southpaws who have thus far given Saltalamacchia nightmares (.554 OPS in 208 PA).

Saltalamacchia might not have any sort of buzz surrounding him right now, but he still possesses secondary skills that most catchers just cannot match and he won’t turn 24 until May. Our five projection systems here at Fan Graphs all peg Salty as a .250-ish hitter with an OBP around .330 and a SLG% between .420-.430. If he gets the lion’s share of playing time behind the dish, it would be wise to give Salty a spin.

You’ll have to forgive Cardinals fans who became nostalgic yesterday afternoon, watching former pitching messiah Chris Carpenter twirl a seven-inning masterpiece versus the hapless Pirates. For one game anyway, it was 2006 all over again.

The fact that Carpenter is even able to take the mound at this point in his career is a testament to modern medicine. Carp suffered a torn labrum as a Toronto Blue Jay back in 2002, which Baseball Prospectus med-head Will Carroll called “a professional death sentence for pitchers.”

Of course, the big right-hander did not go silently into the night, eventually establishing new heights with the Cardinals. Carpenter showed promise with the Jays, generally posting Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low-to-mid fours, but he morphed into a bona-fide ace with the Red Birds. Carp was once supposed to team up with Toronto stud Roy Halladay to form a dynamic one-two punch north of the border. While that didn’t occur, Carpenter essentially became a Doc Halladay doppelganger from 2004 to 2006:

2004: 182 IP, 7.52 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 52.2 GB%, 3.85 FIP
2005: 241.2 IP, 7.93 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 54.5 GB%, 2.90 FIP
2006: 221.2 IP, 7.47 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 53.3 GB%, 3.44 FIP

Carpenter’s pro career reached its apex in ’06: not only did he celebrate a World Series title, but he also inked a lucrative contract extension that winter. The Cards locked up their mended ace for five years and $63 million, plus a 2012 club option.

Unfortunately, his stardom was once again put on hold. The immense workload shouldered during Carpenter’s Cy Young 2005 season and championship-winning 2006 campaign had taxed his body. He went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but as Carroll explains, his path back to the majors has been rife with sharp left turns:

“During his rehab, though, things have gone anything but predictably. He had a shoulder strain as well as nerve issues in his elbow (a common TJ complication) and in his shoulder, a combination which doctors have called “unprecedented.” The nerve transposition in his elbow is perhaps the most controversial element of what was done in Carpenter’s surgery; most surgeons currently move the ulnar nerve as a part of the Tommy John procedure to avoid this kind of setback, but it was not done in Carpenter’s case.” (Will Carroll’s Under The Knife: Chris Carpenter, March 11, 2009).

While it’s anyone’s guess as to how well the 34 year-old will hold up in the long run, Carpenter was stellar in his season-opening start against the Bucs. He did not allow a hit through 6.2 frames, whiffing seven and walking none. Here’s a quick look at Carp’s Pitch F/X data for the game:

Carpenter broke out all of his pitches versus the Pirates, mixing in fastballs, sinkers, cutters, curves, sliders and a couple changeups:

(X is horizontal movement, Z is vertical movement. FB= fastball, SI= sinker, FC= cutter, SL= slider, CB= curveball, CH= changeup).

FB: 93.1 MPH, -10.5 X, 5.39 Z, 27 thrown
SI: 92.6 MPH, -11.55 X, 4.97 Z, 15 thrown
FC: 89.1 MPH, -1.05 X, 6.13 Z, 13 thrown
SL: 88.5 MPH, -0.66 X, 4.4 Z, 16 thrown
CB: 75.5 MPH, 6.6 X, -9.9 Z, 19 thrown
CH: 85.9 MPH, -10 X, 7.3 Z, 2 thrown

Carpenter’s fastball had an absurd amount of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters, with good velocity to boot. He also used the cutter/slider to keep lefties honest, while buckling knees with his dastardly curveball. Look at the movement on that Uncle Charlie: nearly 10 inches of drop, with over six and a half inches of side-to-side movement as well. Think about the plight of the righty hitter for a moment: Carpenter could toss you a fastball that runs right into the nub of your bat, or he could flip a curve way in the opposite direction that just falls off the table. How do you hit that (I suppose you don’t, eh Pirates)?

Keep in mind that this was just one outing, but Chris Carpenter seemingly picked up exactly where he left off in October of 2006. He threw a cornucopia of quality offerings, befuddling batters with a bowling-ball heater and a curve worthy of Vin Scully’s “Public Enemy No. 1” designation. Don’t get too worked up, but Carpenter sure did look like his old self on Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals (on the hook for $43.5 million over the next three years) can only hope it continues.

Nick Adenhart, the Los Angeles Angels top prospect, was killed this morning just hours after making his first start of the Major League Baseball season. Adenhart pitched six scoreless innings against the Oakland Athletics last night before the traffic accident.

It is reported that Adenhart was a passenger in a car that was passing through an intersection when a van allegedly ran a red light. Three people in the car, including the 22-year-old pitcher, were killed – two at the scene and one later at the hospital, according to a local TV station. The names of the other people killed in the accident have not been released.

Allegedly, the driver of the van fled the scene but was later captured and charged with felony hit-and-run. Major League Baseball and the Los Angeles Angels organization have yet to comment on the tragedy. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Adenhart family, the Angels organization and baseball fans everywhere.

The Prospect Watcher is already evolving and a special thank-you goes out to everyone who has shared their opinions via posting comments, as well as by sending e-mails. To make the Prospect Watcher the most effective and valuable for fantasy owners, I am going to narrow the focus to 10 rookie hitters expected to see significant at-bats over the course of the season. Now, the list of players could change slightly if one of those players is sent down to the minors. It could also be altered if a top rookie threat is promoted from the minors (Matt Wieters, I’m looking at you). As of right now, the Prospect Watcher’s ‘Follow List’ will include: Travis Snider, Elvis Andrus, Chris Getz, Brett Gardner, Chris Dickerson, Dexter Fowler, Jordan Schafer, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin, and Travis Ishikawa.

American League:
Chris Getz | 2B | Chicago
Opponent: Kansas City (RHP Zack Greinke)
Result: 0-for-4, K
Trending: —
Notes: Getz is off to a modest start and is batting .250 in eight at-bats

Elvis Andrus | SS | Texas
Opponent: Cleveland (RHP Fausto Carmona)
Result: 2-for-4, home run (RHP Rafael Betancourt), 2 RBI, 2 K
Trending: —
Notes: Andrus is showing surprising pop and hit his first homer of the season after hitting just four in 482 at-bats last year.

Brett Gardner | CF | New York
Opponent: Baltimore (RHP Koji Uehara)
Result: 0-for-4, R, 5 LOB
Trending: —
Notes: Gardner is off to a slow start, hitting just .143 in seven at-bats with no walks or strikeouts.

Travis Snider | LF | Toronto
Opponent: Detroit (RHP Zach Miner)
Result: 0-for-3, 2 K
Trending: —
Notes: 0-for-6 with two strikeouts in his last two games.

National League:
Travis Ishikawa | 1B | San Francisco
Opponent: Milwaukee (RHP Yovani Gallardo)
Result: 1-for-4, R, 3 LOB
Trending: —
Notes: 3-for-9 with three RBI in two games

Chris Dickerson | OF | Cincinnati
Opponent: New York (RHP Mike Pelfrey)
Result: 0-for-3, R, RBI, BB, K
Trending: —
Notes: Two walks in two games

Dexter Fowler | OF | Colorado
Opponent: Arizona (LHP Doug Davis)
Result: 1-for-4, solo HR (Davis), 2 R, BB, K
Trending: —
Notes: Two walks and a homer in two games

Jordan Schafer | CF | Atlanta
At-Bat 1:

When the Washington Nationals went on an outfield shopping spree this past offseason, the competition for playing time figured to be fierce. Adding Josh Willingham via trade and Adam Dunn via free agency to a group of fly-catchers already including Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris and Wily Mo Pena (you know you’ve gone too far when you have an excess Wily), one or two players figures to get the boot or at least be tethered to the bench.

Out of that group, the former Cincinnati Reds prospects figured to lose out. Former GM Jim Bowden acquired his previous Cincy outfielders like they were Pokemon cards (gotta have ’em all!), but Pena was coming off of a putrid season (.228 wOBA in 2008), and Kearns struggled with injuries while failing to produce much at the plate either (.287 wOBA).

While Pena has since been dismissed, Kearns (owed about $8 million for the year) stuck around. And he’s done more than just keep best buddy Dunn company in the clubhouse: manager Manny Acta has started Kearns in right field in Washington’s first two ballgames.

Setting aside the insanity of benching Dukes (quite possibly the Nationals’ all-around best position player), let’s take a look at Austin’s profile to see if he’s worth taking a flyer on.

A 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with power and swiftness afield, Kearns was taken with the 7th overall pick out of Lexington, Kentucky in the 1998 amateur draft. He reached the majors at age 22, looking well worth the investment: Kearns batted .315/.407/.500 with a .394 wOBA during his rookie season in 2002. He pulled a hamstring toward the end of the campaign (an unfortunate bit of foreshadowing), but Austin looked poised to anchor the Reds’ lineup

While that prodigious debut portended to great accomplishments, Kearns lost a big chunk of the ’03 season to rotator cuff inflammation, batting .264/.364/.455. And so began the pattern: somewhat disappointing production, coupled with a copious amount of injuries:

2004
Apr 28, 2004: Fractured left forearm, 15-day DL (retroactive to April 25th).
Jun 8, 2004: Thumb injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 2th).
Aug 24, 2004: Missed 71 games (thumb injury).
Jul 11, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (thumb injury).

.324 wOBA, .230/.321/.419 in 246 PA

2005
Jul 20, 2005: Recalled from Louisville (AAA).
Jun 12, 2005: Optioned to Louisville (AAA).

.339 wOBA, .240/.333/.452 in 448 PA

By this point, Kearns was no longer the golden boy of the Cincinnati organization. Exasperated by his inability to stay on the field, the Reds shipped Kearns to the Nats along with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner in exchange for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson in July of 2006. In good health for once, Kearns would actually turn in a superb all-around season in ’06, accumulating 4.1 Value Wins by playing a slick outfield and posting a .358 wOBA (.264/.363/.467 in 629 PA).

In 2007, Kearns set a career-high in plate appearances, coming to the dish 674 times. His results in the power department were underwhelming: after posting ISO’s in excess of .200 in ’05 and ’06, Kearns slipped to .145. Overall, he posted a near league-average wOBA of .337, batting .266/.355/.411. That, combined with continued flashes of leather, helped Kearns post 3.6 Value Wins.

Then came 2008. Like so many other pieces of the Nats’ offensive “attack”, Kearns’ bat flat lined on his way to a grisly .217/.311/.316 line, with a .099 ISO (it’s like he and Willie Harris switched bodies, or something). Kearns was felled by right elbow and foot injuries, sapping him of any kind of sock.

Small sample size-itis seemingly infected Washington’s front office this spring, however. While would-be stud Dukes batted .212 in a small clump of generally meaningless games played in front of elderly Floridians, Kearns slugged .581. Apparently, that was enough to re-distribute playing time in right field (sigh).

When healthy (a condition anything but assured), Kearns is by no means a bad player. In fact, with his range and solid on-base skills, he could be a nice complementary piece on a team with playoff aspirations. However, as a Nat, he’s blocking one of the organization’s offensive pillars, and his extra-base thump has waned in recent years. Most of the projection systems have Kearns pegged for a modest season with the bat:

CHONE: .252/.350/.413
Oliver: .258/.347/.427
ZiPS: .252/.351/.400

This is one of those situations where “real” and fantasy baseball might diverge: Kearns’ defensive capabilities help push him into the realm of acceptable starter. However, that matters little in most every fantasy league, as Kearns’ lumber projects to produce dime-a-dozen numbers. The 28 year-old is worth a look in deeper leagues, but that guy who looked like an offensive force back in 2002 likely won’t be reappearing.

This season I am debuting a new feature that will hopefully catch on and also help fantasy baseball owners. The Prospect Watcher will breakdown one (or two) rookie player’s hitting performance. The format of the feature will likely evolve during the course of the season as I find out what works and doesn’t work. As well, if you have any suggestions just let me know by posting them here or by e-mailing me.

At-Bat 1:

Pitching Performance of Note: St. Louis Cardinals’ rookie Jason Motte, who earned the right to close games to begin the season with a dominating spring, blew his first save opportunity of the year, which ultimately resulted in a loss for the club. In one inning of work, Motte allowed four runs on four hits. The 4-2 game for St. Louis ended 6-4 for Pittsburgh. Freddy Sanchez, Eric Hinske and Jack Wilson all hit doubles off of Motte.