A fair number of stars, like Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren, are slated for two starts in Week 4. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Joe Blanton – Yes, he has yet to win a game and holds an ugly 7.31 ERA. He also has two home starts against soft tossers Shairon Martis and Livan Hernandez, pitchers against whom his teammates should be able to provide him with some runs. And Blanton does have 16 strikeouts in 16 innings this season.

Edwin Jackson – In four games this season, Jackson has a nifty 1.04 WHIP along with a 2.77 ERA. This week he gets two home starts. On Tuesday he is scheduled to go against Chien-Ming Wang, who has not been setting the world on fire, and Sunday he goes up against Cliff Lee, who already has three losses on the year.

Kyle Lohse – In home games this year, Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. In his lone road start, he gave up four ER in five IP. In 2008, his road ERA was 1.11 runs higher than his home mark. Lohse has road starts in Atlanta and at Washington this week.

Chris Young – In this week’s Trade Possibilities column, I highlighted Young as a player to move. Some thought that was over the top, given he had just one bad start. This week could be a bad one for Young, as he has road starts in Colorado and at Los Angeles. In the last two years, Young has allowed 11 runs in 18 IP in Coors Field and 16 runs in 16 IP at Dodger Stadium.

Barry Zito – In 2008, Pablo Sandoval caught Zito five times and the lefty had a 3.21 ERA with four quality starts when Sandoval was his catcher. In his last outing, Zito pitched seven scoreless innings with Sandoval behind the dish. Maybe manager Bruce Bochy, a former catcher, can connect the dots and make Sandoval Zito’s personal catcher on a full-time basis. Zito has home starts against the Dodgers and Rockies.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Billingsley, Sabathia, Zambrano, Haren, Shields, Danks, Oswalt, Lilly, Lee, Meche, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Verlander, Millwood, Cueto, Wolf, Maine, Penny, Baker, Guthrie, Wakefield, Wang, Bush, Webb, Purcey, Pineiro, Looper, Lannan, Anderson, Niemann, Bannister, Martis, Hernandez, Richmond, Loux, Hammel, Jakubauskas, Geer and Harrison.

With a wrist injury sidelining No. 1 catcher Ryan Doumit for eight to 10 weeks, the backstop duties will fall to a pair of rookies: Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz. The former Phillies prospect, Jaramillo, will likely see the bulk of playing time early on due to A) The fact he was on the 25-man roster before the injury, B) His defensive reputation, and C) The manager’s familiarity with him from their time in the Phillies system.

However, don’t count out Diaz from wrestling the No. 1 gig away from Jaramillo before the first month is up. Diaz is an absolute freak as a hitter. He’s a classic bad-ball hitter in the same vein as Vlad Guerrero; he’s never met a pitch he couldn’t swing at – and make contact with. His minor league triple-slash line says it all: .304/.340/.391… Great average, few walks, almost no power. During the past three seasons, Diaz’ walk rate has hovered around 4.0 BB% (because he swings at everything) and his strikeout rate has been around 9.0 K% (because he makes contact with almost anything). The walk rate would be a little more worrisome if it were not for his consistent ability to hit .300, which compensates somewhat.

For a catcher, a .300 batting average is pretty impressive (especially if you’re running a fantasy team). Diaz also has the potential to offer some defensive flexibility. In the past, the athletic catcher has seen time at third base and second base. There was even talk of trying him in the outfield. During his prime prospect days in the Jays system, the 25-year-old catcher was 5’11” and 170-180 lbs. Some reports now have Diaz pushing over the 200 lbs mark, which would suggest his days of playing second base might be over, but he could still definitely help out at third, first and possibly a corner outfield spot.

A few years ago, there was a near riot amongst the Jays’ minor league pitching staff that was pitching to Diaz. While conversing a number of times with one specific Jays minor league pitcher, he would speak of what little effort Diaz put into the defensive side of his game – especially his game calling. But that, of course, was just one side of the story. And, to be even more fair, it was three years ago and the scouting reports are more favorable now.

Diaz has made strides in his defensive game. He even threw out about 40 percent of runners trying to steal last season. Both his range and fielding percentages have improved in the past two seasons. His game calling is still not a strong suit, but at least games can be called from the dugout, and he has a good person to learn from in the form of Pirates manager John Russell, a former catcher for parts of 10 MLB seasons. There is also room for improvements on blocking balls and receiving.

I once had a Jays official tell me that Diaz could be as successful in the game as he wanted to be. Translation: He sometimes lacks motivation, and is happy to get by on natural talent more often than not. It’s a lot harder to coast on talent alone in the Majors. There are players who do it, no doubt. But unlike the minors, the media glare is much brighter and the veteran players are vocal in most clubhouses. There are some players, like Hanley Ramirez, that post better numbers in the Majors than they did in the minors, quite possibly for that reason. Diaz could very well turn out to be one of those players if given the opportunity.

Blue Jays lefty B.J. Ryan has gotten his 2009 season off to just about the worst start imaginable. The 33 year-old is doing a pretty good Kyle Farnsworth imitation, with 5 walks, 2 homers and seven runs surrendered in 5.2 innings pitched. Once a power pitcher, Ryan is having trouble cracking 88 MPH with his heater, and his mid-80’s slider has devolved into a low-80’s frisbee.

Not-so-coincidentally, word now comes that Ryan will hit the DL with tightness in his upper back and shoulder (this after Ryan’s elbow went snap, crackle, and pop during the 2007 season).

While Ryan is a well-coffered closer (having inked a 5-year, $47 million pact prior to the 2006 season), his replacement (fellow southpaw Scott Downs) comes with considerably less fanfare.

By the time most players enter their late twenties/early thirties, they are in the latter portion of their peak seasons or have already experienced their career climax. In Downs’ case, his peak to that point had been akin to that of a Kiddy Coaster. At 29, Downs was a vagabond who had been drafted by the Cubs in 1997, traded to the Twins in ’98, pinballed back to Chicago in ’99, only to be dumped in Montreal in 2000 for Rondell White. Cut loose by the now-Nationals in 2004, Downs was a thoroughly forgettable starter with a career 5.30 ERA.

Scooped up by the Blue Jays prior to the 2005 campaign, Downs split his time evenly between the rotation and the ‘pen (26 games, 13 starts) with a 4.33 FIP and a healthy number of grounders (52.6 GB%). His ’06 season (spent almost fully in relief) was a near carbon copy, again with a 4.33 FIP, 7.13 K/9, 3.51 BB/9 and even more carpet-burners (55.6 GB%).

Since then, Downs has taken the groundball act to extremes, cutting his home run rate significantly:

2007: 58 IP, 8.84 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 0.47 HR/9, 59.9 GB%, 3.24 FIP
2008: 70.2 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9 65.6 GB%, 3.39 FIP

Utilizing a bowling ball high-80’s sinker that features an incredible amount of tailing action (his fastball moves in on the hands of lefties by over 10 inches; the average for a southpaw is about 6.5 inches) and supplementing the heavy heater with a sweeping mid-70’s curve, Downs has continued the ground assault in 2009. In 9.2 innings, he has punched out 14 batters, while walking none, surrendering 1 run and generating grounders at a 73.7% clip.

Downs doesn’t have the sharpest control, but the second act of his career as a groundballing lefty with enough stuff to fool big league hitters has been fun to watch. The 33 year-old is about to go on the loop-de-loop ride that is major league closerdom. If you can snag Downs, you might want to grab a seat as well.

Every Thursday throughout the regular season, we’re going to take a look at the some of the players hackin’ and chuckin’ away in Minor League Baseball who have a good chance of making an impact at the MLB level in 2009. With that said, let’s get this party started.

Matt LaPorta: The Cleveland Indians might be tempted to shake things up with the club stuck in last place in the AL Central. He could fill a role at either left field, first base or designated hitter. The club is actually hitting fairly well right now and Travis Hafner is having an early-season resurgence, so he’s not going anywhere. The player most likely to lose a roster spot to LaPorta would appear to be left fielder Ben Francisco (.220/.304/.366). The former Brewers prospect is currently hitting .362/.423/.660 in 47 Triple-A at-bats.

Eric Young Jr.: Infielders Jeff Baker (.111 AVG) and Omar Quintanilla (.143) are both struggling for the Rockies and Young Jr. is continuing the hot hitting that he displayed last season. At Triple-A, the son of former Rockies’ second baseman Eric Young Sr., is hitting .298/.313/.340 with nine stolen bases in 10 attempts. His lack of walks (He has zero) hurts his overall value, but he could be a source of cheap steals (87 SB is his MiLB career high) and he would provide more defensive flexibility than Baker.

Andrew McCutchen: Nyjer Morgan is going to have to keep playing like his pants are on fire to keep this former first round draft pick in the minors. The Pirates, though, could get cute and play the center fielder out of position to make room for him. Neither Brandon Moss nor Craig Monroe are hitting that well. Delwyn Young was also brought in recently from Los Angeles, but his defense will not wow anyone. McCutchen, on the other hand, is a gifted outfielder who is currently hitting .315/.373/.630 with five triples and three steals in 54 at-bats.

Bobby Wilson: The Angels have two pretty good young catchers on the MLB roster already, but the organization also has one of the best No. 3 catchers around… and Wilson is stuck playing in Triple-A until an injury occurs. If an opportunity presents itself, though, Wilson could be a valuable addition for fantasy league managers. Along with being a solid defensive catcher (which doesn’t help in most fantasy scenarios), he’s never hit below .268 in the minors leagues and he’s currently batting .346 in 26 at-bats after managing a .312 average at the same level last season. Wilson also has three home runs.

Daniel Bard: With an already-dominating bullpen, Boston could get even more scary with the addition of Bard. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he’s not likely to get involved in many impact scenarios (ie. saves) due to the depth in front of him in the big league pen. He could, though, earned some vulture saves while piling up Ks. So far in Triple-A, Bard has allowed just one hit and three walks in nine innings. He’s struck out more than half (16) of the 27 batters he’s retired.

David Huff: With veterans Fausto Carmona and Carl Pavano struggling, Cleveland may need to dip down into the minors yet again for some pitching help. With Aaron Laffey having already been promoted, Huff could be the next Triple-A starter to get the call. He has a 3.94 ERA through three starts and has allowed 14 hits and seven walks in 16 innings. The left-hander has also struck out 12 batters. Another player to keep an eye on is Hector Rondon, who is one of the fastest rising prospects in the game. He’s currently at Double-A with a 1.10 ERA through three starts.

Jess Todd: Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is not know for his patience with young pitching. If Jason Motte continues to struggle into the beginning of May, Todd may get his opportunity to shine in the St. Louis bullpen. The former second round draft pick out of the University of Arkansas has had little trouble with pro hitters and he currently has 12 strikeouts in 9.1 Triple-A innings. He’s also allowed just five hits. Right-handed hitters are batting just .120 against him.

David Price: It’s not 2008 anymore and the Rays are currently stuck in last place in the AL East. The organization may live to regret not going with its best 25-man roster, which would have included Price, right from the get-go. The left-hander has been solid – but not dominating – at Triple-A with a 2.63 ERA in three starts. He’s allowed 10 hits and four walks, with 15 Ks, in 13.2 innings of work. MLB starters Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine are a combined 1-4 with ERAs above 5.40.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Eric Gagne (wherever he’s rehabbing these days) can breathe a sigh of relief, as Lidge didn’t last near long enough to challenge the goggled wonder’s record of 84 consecutive saves. Regression to the mean is a fickle mistress, and Lidge has already given up 3 taters on the young season (2 all of last year). No pitcher can sustain a 3.9 HR/FB ratio for very long, as “Lights Out” did last season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: K Rod has found his new digs to his liking, striking out nine batters in 5.2 IP. 3 for-3 in save ops without allowing a run, Rodriguez has also seen his fastball velocity (subject of much debate this offseason) bounce back up to 92.8 MPH (91.9 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Broxton has punched out 11 hitters in 6.2 frames, without walking a batter. He’s four-for-four in save chances, and opponents are making contact against him just 65.1% of the time (80.4% major league average). His approach hasn’t been groundbreaking: Broxton has reared back and fired a searing 97.6 MPH heater on nearly 90% of his pitches. It’s just that no one can hit the darned thing.

Matt Capps, Pirates: The Mad Capper is 5-for-5 in save ops thus far, showcasing his typically stellar control. He has yet to issue a free pass, and has thrown a first-pitch strike 75% of the time.

Heath Bell, Padres: The leader in the closer clubhouse with 0.90 WPA, Bell has converted 7 saves for the Padres in the early going.

In Control

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: After suffering a shoulder injury during the spring, Lindstrom hasn’t quite been his usual self, throwing his fastball 95 MPH instead of 97 while cutting his slider usage in half. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Lindstrom’s heater has the same amount of horizontal movement (or lack thereof), tailing in 3.1 inches to righthanded batters (3.2 in 2008; the average for a righty is about 6 inches), while he has slightly less vertical movement as well (8.1 inches, compared to 8.8 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: Cordero has racked up 6 saves already, punching out 6 batters while doing his usual tight rope act (4 walks).

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has a bruised ankle and a tight calf after Orlando Hudson hit one back up the middle that smacked the bespectacled, emotional reliever Tuesday night (he should be just fine). Valverde has surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings so far.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: Qualls has four saves in five chances, as his low-90’s heat/high-80’s slider mix has generated plenty of worm-burners (66.7 GB%).

Brian Wilson, Giants: [insert obligatory Beach Boys reference here]. Wilson has whiffed 8 batters in 6.2 innings, surrendering one run. His fastball has had even more hop thus far, coming in at 96.9 MPH (95.8 MPH last year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: He might not be back just yet, but we might as well toss Hoffman back into the closer’s ring. The big question for the all-time saves leader is: can he limit the long ball damage, now that he doesn’t call cavernous PETCO Park home?

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel has gotten jacked up so far, with 5 runs surrendered and two blown saves in 7 IP. His first-pitch strike percentage is a gruesome 38.2%, third-worst among all relievers.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzalez has missed plenty of bats (11 K in 6.1 IP), but he’s also allowed 3 free passes and 4 runs on his watch. Gonzo relies heavily upon a low-80’s slider (thrown 45.9% of the time in 2009) than can be a wicked offering, but his control of the pitch is scattershot.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg is winning over few people in Wrigleyville so far, with 5 runs allowed in 7 frames. His FIP stands at 6.52, while Carlos Marmol checks in at 3.64.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals: Franklin is apparently the guy in St. Louis for now, and he has done a nice job with 4 saves, 6 K’s and one walk in 7 innings. Still, this is Ryan Franklin, he of 4.87 career strikeouts per nine innings.

Manny Corpas, Rockies: Our first usurping! Corpas led a peaceful transfer of power from Huston Street, who was knocked down the totem pole to middle-man status for the time being. Corpas is a useful reliever, though calling him a shutdown ‘pen arm would be exceedingly kind. His career FIP is 3.79, and his K rate is 6.33 per nine innings.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: ho-hum. Mo has yet to be scored on in seven frames, punching out 8 without issuing a walk. Interestingly (though probably not relevant at all, given the results), Rivera’s scarcely used fastball and bread-and-butter cutter are both down velocity-wise, with the cutter coming in at 90.7 MPH (92.8 in 2008) and the fastball at 91.9 MPH (93.1 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: Papelbon is 4-for-4 in save ops to begin the year, though he has had some slight problems in locating his pitches (47.6% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, compared to a 54.8% career average).

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t received a whole lot of work thus far, tossing 4.1 frames. David DeJeus got to him for a two-run HR on Tuesday, Wood’s last appearance.

Joakim Soria, Royals: Soria has been his normal beastly self in the early going, with five saves and eight K’s in 5 IP. Soria has used his wicked low-70’s curveball 24.1% of the time thus far, compared to about 10% in previous years. Perhaps he got bored dominating hitters with his fastball. Or slider. Or changeup..

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has received four innings of work, and hasn’t gotten into a game since April 16th. Somewhere, he’s glaring at Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras.

Joe Nathan, Twins: Like Rivera, Nathan just marches along, posting zero’s near every time he takes the hill. He has surrendered one run in five frames, with three saves to his ledger.

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: Joey Devine underwent Tommy John surgery this past week, eliminating the main competition for the gig. So far, so good for Ziegler: his submarining splendor has generated groundballs at a 68% clip, though he’s walked four in nine frames.

Brandon Morrow, Mariners: He’s getting the hang of this: since getting roped for 3 runs against the Twins on April 7th, Morrow has tossed five scoreless frames, with seven whiffs and 3 walks. Meanwhile, Chris Jakubauskas (who most baseball fans wouldn’t know from Chewbacca) was torched for 10 hits and 6 runs in 3.1 frames last night in a starting role.

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is off to a false start in LA, with a -0.45 WPA and decreased fastball velocity. Just 42.9% of his pitches thrown have crossed the plate.

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco has shot out of the gate dealing, with a 7/1 K/BB ratio and nary a run allowed in 7 innings. It’s extremely early, but Francisco ranks 2nd among all closers in WPA, at +0.84.

Watch Your Back

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: the pain continues for Ryan, who coughed up a long ball to Texas’ Michael Young last evening. His tally for the year: 5.2 IP, 8 runs and a 4/5 K/BB ratio.

George Sherrill, Orioles: Chris Ray hasn’t lit the world on fire either, but Sherrill has given up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5.1 innings. Ultimately, he’s a good middle man miscast in a late-inning role: CHONE projects a FIP in the range of four.

Troy Percival, Rays: Percival is another guy who holds the closer’s role due mostly to its more predictable usage patterns, and putting him there opens up Joe Maddon’s ability to deploy J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler whenever he so chooses. Case in point: Percival has chucked just 3.2 innings so far. Howell has 7, Balfour 4.1 and Wheeler 5.2.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney needs only to peer over his shoulder at Ryan Perry or check a Toledo Mud Hens box score for “Zumaya” to know that his job security ain’t the greatest. To his credit, Rodney has gotten ahead 0-1 or induced early contact often so far, with a first-pitch strike percentage of 77.3 (57.8% major league average).

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off an Emilio Bonifacio for Gil Meche trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Chris Iannetta – The very limited track record in the majors and his .111 average makes Iannetta someone his current owner may want to move. The .067 BABIP and the .222 ISO are reasons you want to get him.

Justin Verlander – He is averaging over 95 mph with his fastball, the highest rate in his major league career. Verlander’s SO/BB ratio of 2.86 is also a career best. So, how does he have an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA? He has a .389 BABIP and a 38.8 LOB%. His FIP checks in at 3.88 this season. The Tigers are sixth in defensive efficiency rating in 2009, so we are looking at a lot of bad luck here.

Curtis Granderson – He is striking out at 17.3 percent, which would be his lowest total in the majors. But the hits are just not falling in yet, as his .220 BABIP will attest. Granderson has a lifetime .335 mark in the category. I am a little surprised at him having just one stolen base attempt (successful) but he has only eight singles and four walks so far, so Granderson has not had a ton of opportunities yet.

Carl Pavano – Sure, at this point Pavano is better known for his DL stints and for dating Alyssa Milano. But there is a pitcher inside trying to get out. If someone took a flier on him on Draft Day, they are no doubt disgusted by his 9.69 ERA. But Pavano has pitched decent in two of his three starts this season, all three of which have come on the road. After getting bombed in his first start at Texas, Pavano has a 3.75 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 12 IP at Kansas City and at New York. At one point in his life, Pavano was an 18-game winner.

Carlos Lee – With a .244-2-8 line so far this season, Lee is hardly doing awful but it is possible that an owner might be just a tad worried. This is one of the most consistent .300-30-100 guys around and if you can get him at any kind of discount at all, pull the trigger on the deal.

Dump

Carlos Pena – He is second in the majors with six home runs and tied for third with 15 RBIs which should make him very attractive to other owners. But call me crazy, I just do not think he can maintain a .680 SLG. Before the season, Pena was targeted almost exactly alike by all five projection systems, which saw him as a .255-31-77 kind of guy.

Chris Young – This is All-Star Chris Young, the Padres pitcher with the 2-0 record with 14 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. If you cannot trade him, at least take him out of your lineup whenever he makes a road start. Both wins this year have come at home, where he has a 1.38 ERA. Young has a 4.86 ERA on the season.

Orlando Hudson – The O-Dog is riding high, including the first cycle by a home player at Dodger Stadium. Hudson is doing everything you want a fantasy player to do, hitting for average, power and stealing bases. Too bad it cannot last. This is an injury-prone player, one who plays in the middle infield where he is likely to get banged up at some point in the season. But even if he stays healthy, Hudson is not likely to have a .400 BABIP or hit much better than his numbers away from Chase Field the past three seasons, where he batted .274/.339/.392 in 835 plate appearances.

Jarrod Washburn – Since winning 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, Washburn has pitched six seasons (175 starts), has not won more than 11 in a year and has posted an ERA above 4.32 in five of them. See if someone might be enticed by his 2-0 record with a 1.29 ERA.

Miguel Tejada – That .360 batting average sure looks nice. Too bad it is accompanied by no home runs and only one RBI. The power is gone and that gaudy average will not last.

Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is an equal-opportunity hacker. Bring him your fastballs, your curves, your sliders and your changeups: ball or strike, it matters little to the switch-hitting, ambidextrous Venezuelan.

The swing-from-the-shoe tops approach generally worked to good effect in the minors, where Sandoval authored a career .303/.342/.445 line, including an absurd .350/.394/.578 season in 2008 split between San Jose of the High-A California League and Connecticut of the AA Eastern League.

Pablo also pummeled major league pitching in a scalding cup of java with the Giants to end the year, batting .345/.357/.490. Some claim to have actually seen Sandoval draw a walk, but like Big Foot and Loch Ness sightings, you can never really be sure. Sandoval made a lot of contact (9.7 K%, 86.9 Contact%), but his rate of free passes taken (2.7%) would make Shawon Dunston blush.

Sandoval’s degree of hacking was unmatched: he offered at an absurd 53.8% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (!) Among batters with at least 150 plate appearances, Pablo led the competition by a wide margin. Even notorious bad-ball hitter Vladimir Guerrero couldn’t keep pace, with a 45.5 O-Swing%. Overall, Sandoval swung at 64.6% of the total pitches he saw, giving him a comfortable cushion in front of Miguel Olivo, Humberto Quintero, Vlad and Alexei Ramirez.

In 2009, Sandoval has improved his level of selectivity, swinging at just…52 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (hey, you gotta start somewhere). Unlike last year, the line-drives and doubles aren’t manifest in the box scores: Sandoval has a .279 wOBA in 48 plate appearances, with a walk rate (2.2 BB%) and OBP (.292) that even teammate Juan Uribe could poke fun at.

It seems as though opposing pitchers have just plain stopped throwing Sandoval strikes. They were already reluctant to fill the zone in 2008, given his see-ball, hit-ball edict (46.6% of the pitches that Sandoval saw were in the strike zone, compared to the 51.1% average).

But in ’09, just 33.6% of pitches seen have crossed the plate: that’s the lowest rate among all hitters to this point in the season. Sandoval has almost whiffed as many times in 2009 (11) as he did in over three times the amount of PA’s in ’08 (14). And really, why risk tossing a cookie to Sandoval if there’s a better than 50/50 shot that he’ll swing at something off the dish or in the dirt?

Sandoval is undoubtedly a talented hitter, making the sort of hard contact that leads one to believe that he possesses a .300 skill-set in the majors. However, batting average fluctuates more than most offensive stats; it’s not out of the realm of possibility for someone like Sandoval to hit .244 in a short stretch of at-bats. When that happens, he doesn’t have the proverbial flotation device that walks provide, so his offensive value goes down the drain.

The best thing fantasy owners could do with Sandoval right now is to remain patient. He’s something of a mess at the plate at the moment, but cutting bait now would be to sell an asset at its lowest point. Stay the course if you selected the 22 year-old hacker- this sort of uncertainty comes with the territory when a player’s value is dependent on his batting average.

As the sixth overall draft pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2005, you might think the bar for Ricky Romero would be set pretty high. However, as many of us know, the first round of the amateur draft is anything but an exact science in Major League Baseball – and Romero also had the misfortune of being taken right before a player by the name of Troy Tulowitzki, who finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2007.

In pro ball, Romero rarely showed the form that made him the first pitcher selected in the 2005 draft, besting Tampa Bay’s Wade Townsend by two slots and New York’s Mike Pelfrey by three. Romero made it to Double-A in his first full season in 2006 but the southpaw then spent parts of three seasons at that level before tasting Triple-A for seven starts in 2008. At the time of the draft, Romero was considered the 13th-best draft prospect by Baseball America. Here is what the scouting report said on the left-hander prior to the draft:

Romero has three solid, major league-ready pitches that he can throw for strikes almost at will, including a fastball that sits at 90-91 mph and touches 93-94…. But Romero gets his highest grades for his makeup, temperament and competitive zeal. He is an excellent student of the game who understands the science of pitching, and is a master at controlling the tempo of a game. He often has one poor inning a game, gets mad at himself and responds by pitching better the rest of the way.

Considered an advanced pitcher, Romero spent far more time in the minors than was expected. His command and control also took a huge step back as he posted a 3.80 BB/9 in his pro career prior to 2009, as well as a walk rate above 4.00 BB/9 at Double-A or above. As he struggled on the mound, Romero’s “competitive zeal” also took a hit along with his confidence and he began to pitch away from contact. Last year in High-A ball, Romero allowed 139 hits 121.2 innings with rates of 4.07 BB/9 and 5.77 K/9. In Triple-A, he allowed 42 hits in 42.2 innings and had rates of 4.22 BB/9 and 8.02 K/9.

Toronto entered this spring desperately needing pitching, with serious injuries to two young starters: Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Another injured pitcher, Casey Janssen, who was expected back at the beginning of the season to help soften the blow, had a set back. Two other southpaw hurlers, Brad Mills and Brett Cecil, had seemingly passed Romero on the depth chart and one or both of them were set to win a spot with spring training winding down.

However, with Romero on the cusp of being demoted to the minor-league camp, Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg stepped in and asked management to rethink the decision. The pitching coach had an idea. He made some tweaks to Romero’s mechanics, moved his feet, and lessened the amount that the former No. 1 pick was throwing across his body. Miraculously, Romero’s command and control improved almost overnight. He was reborn.

The results can be seen in his young MLB season to date. In his debut, he out-dueled one of the Top 10 young pitchers in baseball in Detroit’s Rick Porcello. In his second game, he held Minnesota to just two runs in eight innings. In his third start, just yesterday against Oakland, Romero shutout the A’s over seven innings. In three games, he’s allowed 19 hits in 21 innings and posted rates of 1.71 BB/9 (!) and 5.57 K/9. As well, he’s caused 28 groundball outs compared to 19 flyball outs.

In his game against Oakland, Romero was mixing four pitches (FB, CB, SL, CH) well and commanding all four in the strike zone. As well, his fastball that was struggling to sit around 90 mph last year, was hitting 94 mph – a velocity he has not seen consistently since his college days.

You cannot look at Romero’s first three starts and make a definitive statement about his potential for 2009 or his future beyond the present, but his start to the year is definitely encouraging, especially since the improvements can be traced back to a mechanical adjustment. As well, the left-hander showed this type of potential in college and he’s still just 24 years old. It’s far too early to call Romero an ace-in-waiting, or even a guaranteed No. 3 starter, but his future definitely has a brighter shine to it.

Perhaps the left-hander will one day be able to say, “Tulo-who?”

Stock Up

Corey Hart, Brewers

During the offseason, we noted how in 2008, Hart resembled a happy puppy dog chasing a frisbee every time a pitcher tossed him a slider. The result of the lanky Brewer’s unrestrained hacking was a 4.2 BB% and a .327 wOBA. Opposing hurlers continue to go to the slider versus Hart (24.2% of his total pitches seen thus far in 2009, 19th-highest in the majors), but he’s shown more patience to this point: 8 unintentional walks in 53 PA.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Swisher appeared in this column last week as well, but his path toward everyday playing time became much cleaner with the news that Xavier Nady might be headed for another Tommy John surgery. Off to a blistering start, Swish is projected to post a useful .360 wOBA by CHONE. Plus, he’s leading the league in ERA (somewhere, Gabe Kapler does bicep curls and weeps).

Zack Greinke, Royals

An absurdly gifted hurler, Greinke has channeled his inner Pedro Martinez by posting a 26/5 K/BB ratio in 20 frames to start the season. KC’s ace has yet to be scored upon, and opposing batters have chased nearly 30% of his offerings out of the strike zone (24.6% average).

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones already proved himself to be a nifty fielder in 2008 (11.5 UZR/150 in center field), but his bat has shown signs of taking flight as well. Like Hart, Jones has worked the count to greater effect in the early going, drawing 7 free passes in 53 PA. The more conservative approach is a welcome sight after the 23 year-old went fishing for pitches outside of the strike zone 36.2% of the time in 2008 (9th-highest in the bigs). Jones left Sunday night’s game with a tight hamstring, but the injury isn’t considered serious.

Manny Corpas, Rockies

Corpas now has dibs on the 9th inning duties in Colorado, as Huston Street will be relegated to middle-man status for the time being. Corpas’ own qualifications for the high-leverage role might be lacking (his career FIP is 3.79, with 6.36 K/9), but he’s worth a look if you can snag him on the cheap.

Stock Down

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees

Wang’s numbers look like a typo: 6 innings, 23 hits, 23 runs, 34.50 ERA. While keeping in mind that the sample size is incredibly small, his sinker is down velocity-wise (90.5 MPH in ’09, 91.8 MPH in ’08) and his slider has come in softer as well (81.9 MPH, compared to 85.4 MPH in ’08). Perhaps nothing is wrong with Wang long-term- baseball tends to go through its own period of McCarthyism during April, as bold claims are made based on small amount of evidence. Still, Wang has experienced about as much success as this fellow on the bump.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Dice-K hits the DL with “arm fatigue”, as his fastball dips into the high-80’s with a commensurate drop in slider and changeup velocity as well. Matsuzaka is a prime regression candidate in 2009.

Vladimir Guerrero, Angels

Whither Vlad? The aging Impaler posted his lowest Isolated Power figure (.218) since his Expos days in 2008, jumped straight from 32 to 34 during the offseason, and now he’s on the shelf with a torn pectoral muscle that could sideline him for a month or more. At this rate, we’ll find out that Guerrero is actually just a 42 year-old Moises Alou wearing a mask. Speaking of Alou, is Vladimir entering a Moises-type phase of his career, where he rakes when he’s upright enough to take the field?

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

Bonifacio’s hot start engendered hopes that the Fish had lured in a steal during the offseason. However, the Martian inhabiting Emilio’s body departed this past week. He’s 1 for his last 16. Going forward, expect some singles and SB’s, but his total lack of secondary skills will make him something less than an asset.

Alex Gordon, Royals

Failure to Launch: The former Golden Spikes Award winner and Nebraska’s favorite son appeared poised to bust out in 2009, having improved his walk rate considerably during the ’08 season. Unfortunately, Gordon had to undergo hip surgery that is expected to keep him out of commission for about 3 months.