Shane Victorino made a great leap forward in 2007, doubling his HR output and seeing a nine-fold increase in his SB totals. He kept those gains in 2008, although in over 117 more plate appearances. Fantasy owners are big believers in Victorino, as he now holds an ADP of 51 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Victorino, while no slouch in other categories, gets most of his value from steals. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th overall in SB with 73. So the big question for him going forward is how likely is he to maintain his current level of production.

In 2007, Victorino was safe on 37 of 41 attempts for an outstanding 90 percent of his stolen base tries. Last year his success rate fell to 77 percent, still a fine number but off considerably from just a season ago.

The four projection systems that predict SB all show Victorino with less than 30 in 2009. CHONE gives him 23 SB, which is the 46th-best mark in the system. ZiPS has him down for 24, which is tied for 62nd-best in the majors.

Marcel, which uses a weighted average of the past three seasons, gives him 26 SB which ties him for 13th-best. The Bill James system gives him 27 steals.

A 10-bag drop in stolen bases would have a huge impact on Victorino. Those who spend a late fourth or early fifth-round pick on him are betting that he can beat the projection systems. This is not an unreasonable wager, he has done it the past two seasons, but a pick that early values Victorino at the top of his range.

Last Player Picked has Victorino as the 43rd-best hitter in fantasy baseball last year. If he matches what he did last year, he gives you equivalent value for his ADP. But there seems to be very little upside for Victorino there and the real possibility that he turns into a disappointment if he fails to crack 30 steals.

Spring training just does not seem to agree with Angels starting pitchers. Last year, the top two projected arms in the rotation (John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) were felled by health issues. While ace Lackey (triceps) returned in mid-May and turned in another solid campaign, number two man Escobar (shoulder) never threw a pitch for the big league club in 2008.

Unfortunately, a health issue has once again knocked out LAA’s projected number two starter, as Ervin Santana will begin the 2009 campaign on the disabled list with a sprained medial collateral ligament (also known as UCL, the stabilizing ligament in the elbow made famous by Tommy John Surgery). The timing is especially disappointing for both the Angels and fantasy owners, as Santana had just turned in a highly promising season (4.55 K/BB ratio, 3.30 FIP) an inked a four-year, $30M contract extension during the offseason.

With Santana shelved, the Angels must now select two starters from a group that includes Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Nicholas Adenhart.

Moseley began the 2008 season as Los Angeles’ fifth starter, making five early season starts. In all, the right-hander made 10 starts for the club as well as two relief appearances. The results look downright ugly (6.79 ERA), but an unangelic .379 BABIP did him no favors. Moseley’s FIP was a more tolerable 4.52 in 50.1 innings of work, as he posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9.

His work in AAA, however, inspires little confidence. Moseley struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings and walked 2.62, but he surrendered nearly 1.8 HR/9. The 6-4, 190 pounder was once considered a gifted prospect (the Reds drafted him in the first round back in 2000), but he’s definitely more of a finesse pitcher these days. The 27 year-old features an 88-90 MPH fastball, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup.

Loux is another low-octane right-hander. The 6-2, 235 pounder, formerly a Tigers prospect, went five years between big league performances. After last reaching the majors in 2003, Loux tossed 16 frames for the Angels last season. Loux spent some time with the Royals in ’06 and was released by the Mariners prior to 2007, at which point he contemplated hanging up his cleats. While donning the tools of ignorance a pitching prospect in an indoor facility, Loux switched places with the guy for a few pitches and impressed the facility owner. The owner referred Loux to an Angels scout. Returning to the mound in ’08, Loux posted rates of 5.02 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 with AAA Salt Lake City. The 29 year-old kills some worms (51.8 GB% in AAA) with a 90 MPH sinker and a hard mid-80’s slider.

Adenhart entered the 2008 season as the pride and joy of the Angels’ player development system. The lanky right-hander was considered a premier prospect in the 2004 amateur draft, but an elbow injury caused him to fall to the 14th round. Undeterred, the Angels ponied up $710K for Adenhart’s services. Possessing a low-90’s heater, a sharp curveball and a changeup, Adenhart got his career off to a great start. After punching out over a batter per inning in rookie ball in 2005, he split the ’06 season between Low-A and High-A, whiffing around eight hitters per nine innings while issuing around 2.5 walks per nine.

Bumped up to AA for the 2007 campaign, Adenhart threw 153 innings with rates of 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9. He got off to a superficially impressive start in 2008 at AAA and received a call-up to the majors, but he was beaten like a drum in three starts: 12 IP, 18 hits, 12 runs, 4/13 K/BB ratio. Returned to Salt Lake, Adenhart struck out an adequate 6.81 per nine but his control took a step backward (4.64 BB/9). Despite his struggles, the 22 year-old still has plenty of believers in the scouting community (Baseball America named him LAA’s #1 prospect during the offseason). However, Adenhart’s turbulent big league introduction and erratic work at AAA suggest that he’s not big league ready.

After a down season in his sophomore year in the majors in 2007, Brian McCann bounced back last year to be in the top four among catchers in AVG, HR, RBI and Runs. The projection systems predict McCann essentially to repeat his 2008 performance this year and the mock drafting crowd agrees, making McCann the second-rated catcher with an ADP of 46, three spots behind Russell Martin.

McCann had nothing fluky in his profile last year. He hit equally well at home and on the road, versus LHP and RHP and both before and after the All-Star break. He posted the highest BB% of his brief career, and checked in with a 10.1 percent walk rate. His K% dropped over two full points to 12.6 percent and his BABIP was a normal .308 for the season.

With McCann the question is not so much where he rates among players at his position, he clearly ranks among the top catchers in the game, but rather when to draft catchers. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, McCann turned in a $13.94 season last year. That placed 64th among hitters in mixed leagues. Add the top pitchers to the pool and does it make sense to spend a fourth-round pick on McCann?

Yes it does.

One of the challenging things to incorporate into projections is position scarcity. Last year Mauer was the top catcher with a $14.89 value. There were 12 first basemen with higher dollar values. Mauer’s $14.89 was worth more than Derrek Lee’s $15.96, much like how a run in the Astrodome in 1968 was worth more than two runs in Coors Field in 1996.

Yet somehow it is easier to wrap our heads around the idea of park factors and run environments than it is to understand position scarcity. Perhaps this is because when we attempt to calculate position scarcity, we have to not only compare how each player at a position does versus his direct peers, but also how that rates with all of the players in MLB.

Catchers are undervalued by their raw stats. The next time you participate in a mock draft, try drafting a catcher in the first three-to-five rounds, if you do not normally do this. And then examine the impact on your team and see if you are better off with McCann as your catcher than with Yadier Molina or whomever you normally get in the 20th round, even though you passed on an impact hitter like Nick Markakis or Jason Bay.

Properly calculating position scarcity is beyond the scope of this piece. It is one of the most valuable things at pay sites ranging from FantasyPros911.com to BaseballHQ to The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa. But position scarcity is real and it makes McCann a good value at his current ADP.

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s take a look at the guys who couldn’t catch a break in 2008.

1.) Livan Hernandez, Mets (Twins and Rockies in ’08)
6.05 ERA, 4.94 FIP

With a fastball that couldn’t tear through tissue paper (83.7 MPH), Livan surrendered an astounding 257 hits in 180 innings pitched. Sure, his .345 BABIP will likely fall somewhat, but Hernandez is still to be avoided in all fantasy leagues. His lone skill at this point is showing up for work every fifth day. Hernandez’s combination of average pitching and durability was once quite valuable (he tallied Win Values of 4.5 in 2003 and 4.6 in 2004 while with the Expos), but there’s nothing to see here now.

2.) Kevin Millwood, Rangers
5.07 ERA, 4.02 FIP

Millwood’s peripherals weren’t terrible last year (6.67 K/9, 2.61 BB/9), but he was felled by a .366 BABIP, highest among all qualified starters. The 34 year-old did surrender line drives aplenty, however (25.3 LD%).

3.) Javier Vazquez, Braves (White Sox in ’08)
4.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP

Vazquez has long been the subject of head-scratching in sabermetric circles. Low-90’s heat, a pair of nasty breaking balls, a solid changeup, strong K/BB ratios…Javy looks like an ace. However, despite strong career rates (7.99 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.93 FIP), Vazquez’s ERA sits at a fair-but-unspectacular 4.32. Vazquez always seems to go five innings strong, only to groove that One Bad Pitch (TM) that makes his outing look a bit less impressive. His career OPS against in innings 1-5 is .721. In the sixth inning? .867.

Javy posted another strong campaign in ’08 (8.64 K/9, 2.64 BB/9), but a .328 BABIP made his performance appear worse than it really was. Don’t be surprised if this flyball hurler posts a sub-four ERA, now that he’s out of The Cell and back in the NL.

4.) Ian Snell, Pirates
5.42 ERA, 4.57 FIP

Snell battled some health issues and his control in ’08 (4.87 BB/9). On the plus side, he retained his velocity and still punched out a decent 7.39 batters per nine innings. Behind one of the most execrable defensive clubs in the majors (the Bucs ranked 21st in team UZR/150 and 28th in Defensive Efficiency), Snell had the misfortune of surrendering a .358 BABIP. If he wants to get back to his promising 2007 form (4.01 FIP), Snell is going to have to cut the free passes and find something to quell left-handed batters. Relying almost exclusively on a fastball/slider combo, Snell has allowed the average southpaw to turn into late-career Todd Helton against him (.301/.387/.494).

5.) Andy Pettitte, Yankees
4.54 ERA, 3.71 FIP

In many respects, Pettitte’s 2008 season mirrored his work from the previous two years with the Astros and Yankees. He posted his lowest FIP since 2005, with a sturdy 2.87 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, the porous Bronx Bombers D let Pettitte down, and he allowed a .339 BABIP. As a pitcher who generates a fair amount of groundballs, Pettitte is going to need better work from 2B Robinson Cano (a plus defender in ’07, but he came in at -6.4 UZR/150 in ’08) while living with SS Derek Jeter’s limited range. New first baseman Mark Teixeira should help matters to some extent. A switch-hitting force, Tex was also a vacuum with the Braves and Angels in 2008 (9.4 UZR/150).

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s start with those who were a little too fortunate in 2008.

1.) Armando Galarraga, Tigers
3.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP

Acquired before the ’08 season from the Rangers for a nondescript minor league outfielder, Galarraga turned in the best starting line for a disappointing Tigers rotation. However, his peripherals (6.35 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) suggest that he’s more likely to post an ERA north of four and a half if he retains similar rates next season. Galarraga’s .250 BABIP (third-lowest among all starters) is sure to rise.

2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
2.90 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Matsuzaka was the subject of one of the first articles on Rotographs, where I pointed out several trends that portend to a less shiny ERA in 2009. Dice-K missed bats (8.27 K/9), but he was the beneficiary of a .267 BABIP, a high strand rate (80.6 LOB%) and a low HR/FB rate (6.1%). Add in a maddening tendency to dish out free passes (5.05 BB/9), and Matsuzaka’s year begins to lose some of its luster.

3.) Johan Santana, Mets
2.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP

We’re obviously speaking in relative terms here: Santana’s FIP ranked 16th among all starters, as he whiffed 7.91 batters per nine innings with 2.42 BB/9. The soon-to-be 30 year-old is still one of the prime starters in the NL, if not quite the cyborg that tore through the AL earlier in the decade. With a lower strand rate (his 82.6% mark was the highest among all starters), Santana’s ERA will likely revert to great as opposed to otherworldly.

4.) Joe Saunders, Angels
3.41 ERA, 4.36 FIP

A former first-rounder out of Virginia Tech, Saunders looks like he should fool batters. The 6-3 southpaw has fair velocity on his fastball (91 MPH) and complements the heater with a changeup, curveball and occasional slider. While Saunders possesses solid control (2.41 BB/9), his K rate (4.68 per nine) and low BABIP (.267) suggest that he’s more Average Joe than fledging ace.

5.) Gavin Floyd, White Sox
3.84 ERA, 4.77 FIP

The perennial prospect finally turned in a full season in a major league rotation, tossing 206.1 frames for the White Sox. The former Phillies farm hand did perform better in the second half of the year (6.65 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 after the all-star break, 6.04 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 prior), but Floyd had auspicious luck on balls put in play (.268 BABIP) and southpaws continued to rake against him (.259/.340/.485).

The Texas Rangers organization is rich in backstops. The club traded veteran catcher Gerald Laird to the Detroit Tigers this past winter (for much-needed young pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo), which still left the club with three young players at the position.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was obtained from Atlanta in 2007 in the Mark Teixeira deal, has the most experience at the position with 154 games at the Major League level. In 198 MLB at-bats in 2008, the 23-year-old switch-hitter batted .253/.352/.364. Max Ramirez, obtained in 2007 from Cleveland for Kenny Lofton, made his MLB debut this past season and appeared in 17 games. The 24-year-old spent the majority of his season in Double-A and hit .354/.450/.646 in 243 at-bats.

The best of the bunch though – and most well-rounded – is Taylor Teagarden, whom the club drafted out of the University of Texas in the third round of the 2005 draft. The 25-year-old’s road to the Majors was slowed by injuries (including Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow), but he made his MLB debut in 2008 and hit .319/.396/.809 with six home runs in just 47 at-bats.

Earlier in the season, while playing at Double-A and Triple-A, Teagarden struggled to hit for average but was once again battling injuries. In 2007, split between High-A and Double-A, the right-handed hitting catcher slugged 27 home runs and hit .308 combined. Teagarden is not likely to hit for a high average in the Majors, despite his previous averages, but the power is for real. He has a long swing and has trouble making consistent contact with strikeout rates of more than 30.0 K% in his career.

Regardless of his offensive contributions, the Texas native will be a valuable MLB catcher based solely on his defense. Teagarden was considered the best defensive catcher in college in 2005 – and possibly in the entire draft that season. In fact, some scouts had serious questions about his ability to hit professional pitching, but almost everyone agreed that he would play in the Majors thanks to his potential Gold Glove defense. He is also a leader on the field and throws well (38% caught stealing in 2008).

Although Saltalamacchia and Ramirez may offer a little more offense – especially in terms of average and consistency, Teagarden is the better all-around-player due to his defensive contributions (the other two are average at best behind the dish) and power threat. From a fantasy perspective, expect a .240-.250 average with 15-20 home runs if he gets the lion’s share of the playing time in 2009.

The Chicago White Sox entered the 2008 season facing an identity crisis. Coming off of a disappointing 72-win campaign, the South Siders possessed an aging roster and a farm system that had become fallow due to years of conservative drafting. Baseball America ranked the Chicago system 28th-best before the year, leaving an ominous forecast: “With an aging roster in Chicago that stumbled in ’07, the White Sox could be in for a long dry spell.”

Instead, the Pale Hose tallied 89 victories (supported by a +82 run differential). Southpaw John Danks emerged as a potential ace, and the maligned player development program received an infusion of much-needed position player talent. The White Sox system won’t be confused with that of the A’s or Rangers any time soon, but draftees Gordon Beckham (a middle infielder with a quality bat) and Jordan Danks (John’s brother; a rangy outfielder snagged out of Texas), as well as potential secondary-skills monster Tyler Flowers (a C/1B/DH to-be-named-later picked up in the Javier Vazquez deal) gave the system a boost. The Sox also dipped into the international market, signing a highly-touted Cuban for the second straight year.

Dayan Viciedo, who turns 20 this week, inked a four-year major league contract paying him a $4 million bonus and ensuring $10 million overall. The star of Cuba’s junior national team defected in May according to Baseball America, taking a boat to Mexico before etablishing residency in the Dominican Republic. He then shifted to Miami with his agent, Jaime Torres.

While Alexei Ramirez is a sleek athlete known for his speed and quick wrists, Viciedo is a burly right-handed hitter noted for his immense power. As you can see from this video, Viciedo has a quiet, powerful swing. Although this sounds a bit on the hyperbolic side, BA commented that he “has the power to hit 40-plus home runs in season, thanks to a quick swing that’s triggered by strong wrists.”

Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein also extolled Viciedo’s virtues (subscription required), dubbing him the fourth-best prospect in the White Sox System. “Viciedo”, Goldstein noted, “has the potential to be a top-line offensive prospect. He combines brute strength with incredible bat speed, and he’s one of those rare players for whom solid contact “sounds different” when he can fully square up on a fastball.”

While it seems as though a near-consensus exists regarding Dayan’s hitting ability, his skill set afield is much less heralded. Viciedo is listed at 5-11 and 240 pounds on MLB.com, and he was reportedly heavier than that when the White Sox first scouted him. With an ample frame, he could end up shifting down the defensive spectrum to first base or DH. Here’s one scout’s take on Viciedo:

“His body could go the same route as Livan Hernandez, and when I saw him in Mexico, he wasn’t very good at third base anymore,” one international scouting director said. “But he can really hit; in fact, I think he’s probably a better hitter than [Angel] Villalona.”

There have been some rumblings that Viciedo might have a shot of cracking the opening day roster for the White Sox. However, as Goldstein pointed out, “that’s more than a bit aggressive.” While spring training stats can be awfully misleading, he hasn’t hurt his case with two homers in 15 at-bats. The more likely scenario entails Viciedo starting the year in the minors, perhaps at Double-A. Long-term, he’s certainly someone to watch closely.

Fields and Betemit look like a decent platoon duo, but third might be there for the Cuban if he has the defensive chops. If not, DH and 1B will also be vacated sometime soon, with Jim Thome and Paul Konerko reaching the latter stages of their respective careers.

The Atlanta Braves’ starting pitching picture (say that three times fast) has changed dramatically since the 2008 season came to a disappointing end for the organization. Once a strength for the club, the starting rotation was inconsistent in 2008 despite the emergence of Jair Jurrjens and, to a certain degree, Jorge Campillo.

The club has worked hard to improve the rotation and it added veterans Javier Vazquez, Tom Glavine, and Derek Lowe over the winter. The Braves organization also brought in Japanese starter Kenshin Kawakami. If all the veterans are healthy on opening day, Jurrjens will likely take the fifth spot in the rotation with Campillo sliding to the bullpen.

Should a starting pitcher succumb to injury, though, Tommy Hanson will be waiting in the wings to prove himself. The right-hander broke out in a big way in 2008 by posting a 0.90 ERA in seven High-A starts. He allowed just 15 hits in 40 innings of work and posted rates of 2.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9. Hanson then was promoted to Double-A where he allowed 70 hits in 98 innings and posted rates of 3.77 BB/9 and 10.47 K/9.

After the season, Hanson appeared in the Arizona Fall League and dominated some of the best prospects in baseball by posting a 0.63 ERA in 28.2 innings. He allowed just 10 hits and struck out 49 batters. The 6’6” pitcher needs to induce a few more ground balls and left-handed batters have hit 30 points higher against Hanson than righties in his career. His repertoire includes four pitches that are average or better: an 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

With all the moves made by the big club in the 2008-09 off-season, Hanson is all but certain to begin the season in Triple-A but he seems to have surpassed both Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton on the depth chart, despite the fact both hurlers have big league experience. Given enough innings, Hanson could have a significant impact on the Major League club in 2009. He’s certainly one of the best starting pitcher prospects in keeper leagues.

Yesterday, we profiled White Sox third base candidate Josh Fields. The former-first rounder has been a mild disappointment for Chicago, as the 26 year-old enters the 2009 season having yet to secure an everyday job. Today, let’s examine another guy who was once highly-touted, Wilson Betemit.

Betemit knows a thing or two about heightened expectations. The switch-hitter was once the next big thing in the Atlanta farm system, having signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1996. Betemit’s deal put the Braves in a bit of hot water, as birth certificate shenanigans caused confusion. Apparently, he was just 14 when he came to terms with Atlanta- international players are not eligible to sign until age 16. The Braves took a $100K fine and Betemit attempted to become a free agent, but the situation eventually blew over and the prized youngster took the field for the organization.

The results were fairly promising for such a youthful player, as Betemit raked in rookie ball and Low-A in 1999 and 2000. He held his own at High-A as a teenager in 2001 (.277/.326/.412) and smoked Double-A late in the season (.355/.395/.514). Baseball America was smitten with the then-shortstop, naming him the 29th best prospect in the game in ’01 and #8 overall in 2002. He kept his head above water at AAA between 2002 and 2004 (his career line at the level is .263/.325/.421), and he saw his first significant action with the Braves as a 23 year-old in 2005.

Betemit was only a part-time SS by that point, but he posted a tasty .305/.359/.435 showing in 274 PA. Since that point, however, Betemit’s progress at the plate has basically stalled. Following his .337 wOBA with Atlanta in ’05, he has posted marks of .336 in 2006 (split between the Braves and the Dodgers), .342 in 2007 (Dodgers and Yankees), and .308 this past year in the Bronx.

Over the course of his big league career, Betemit has shown decent plate discipline (9 BB%) and a propensity to whiff (28.6 K%), though he kept the K’s and eschewed the walks while posting a 3.1 BB% with the Yankees in limited 2008 playing time. While battling pink eye and a hamstring pull, he ventured outside of the strike zone over 31% of the time in sporadic AB’s for New York, a hefty increase over his previous rates. The Yankees booted Betemit to the South Side of Chicago in an offseason swap involving Nick Swisher.

It’s unfair to label Betemit a “bust”- the 27 year-old has authored a decent .260/.325/.437 career line in the majors- but it’s clear that the thrice-traded former top prospect has fallen short of expectations. His potent bat stopped progressing, and his big 6-3 frame necessitated a shift primarily to the infield corners (where his glove still does him no favors, with a career -8.9 UZR at third).

Betemit hits both ways, but he has done most of his damage against right-handers (.269/.339/.460 career) while generally flailing versus southpaws (.232/.276/.360). Given Fields’ lefty-lashing tendencies, a platoon (AKA a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare) suggests itself. Betemit has his uses on a major league roster as a reserve/platoon player with some pop, but he’s probably not someone deserving of a roster spot in most fantasy leagues.

Curtis Granderson was a fantasy star in 2007, when he posted a .302-22-74-122-26 line, which was the 16th-best overall season according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. But Granderson came down with a broken finger in Spring Training last year and missed the first 21 games of the season.

He was not as dominant as he was in 2007 but Granderson still had a $16 fantasy season last year. Somewhat surprisingly, he nearly matched his big year in HR and RBIs, but fell off significantly in SB and AVG.

The projection systems do not see a rebound in average, mainly because his .302 mark in 2007 was fueled by a .362 BABIP, a mark Granderson is unlikely to duplicate. But the projections are also bearish on the 28-year old returning to 20+SB. The three systems that predict steals show him with 13 (Marcel) or 14 (Bill James and CHONE).

But there is a better chance for Granderson to approach his 2007 SB numbers than to hit .300 again. And it goes back to his broken finger. Doctors recommended that Granderson go easy in all workouts while he was recovering from the finger injury, worried that he might jar the finger and suffer a setback.

When Granderson returned, his legs were not in the shape they normally were and his running game suffered. After being successful on 26 of 27 attempts in 2007, Granderson was thrown out on four of his first eight attempts last year. But he was successful on his final eight tries of the year, and only a brutal September, in which he batted .192 with a .294 OBP, kept his attempts down.

A 25-HR, 25-SB season is not out of the question for Granderson. And combined with his likely high Runs total (he averaged 117 runs the past two seasons), Granderson has the potential to be a top-25 fantasy hitter. He currently has an ADP of 49, making Granderson a potential bargain for owners who get him in the late fourth or early fifth round.