This winter, the Chicago Cubs have strung together a series of puzzling transactions. From shipping versatile infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three lukewarm pitching prospects (Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Christopher Archer), acquiring Kevin Gregg from Florida for six years of team control over Jose Ceda, not offering arbitration to type-A free agent Kerry Wood (the “worst case scenario” there involves Wood accepting, giving the club a good, injury-prone reliever under control for just one year) and essentially swapping option-less former prospects Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for Aaron Heilman, GM Jim Hendry has sent out quite the load of talent without receiving comparable value in return. Signing Milton Bradley is a risky-but-defensible move and swapping Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino is unlikely to create ripples, but on the whole, it has been a winter of trading down in the Windy City.

The “out of options” fire sale continued yesterday, as the pitching-starved Orioles snagged left-hander Rich Hill from the Cubs for a player to be named. The move is all upside from Baltimore’s vantage point: they acquire a guy who was pretty useful as recently as 2007, and if Hill busts, they won’t give up much of anything: the quality of the PTBNL is contingent on Hill’s performance for the O’s.

Hill, 29 in March, certainly has a better chance of cracking Baltimore’s rotation than he did in Chicago, where his turbulent 2008 made him a forgotten man within the organization. While the O’s have an impressive collection of well-regarded arms on the farm (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and to a lesser extent guys like Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Troy Patton, Bradley Bergesen and Chorye Spoone), the current rotation depth chart reads like a collection of waiver-wire talent.

Jeremy Guthrie’s peripherals suggest he’s more league-average starter than rotational pillar (his FIP has hovered around 4.50 the past two years, with a .270-ish BABIP and a high strand rate making things appear sturdier). Control-oriented import Koji Uehara “should be roughly around average, and more likely on the low side than the high”, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Clay Davenport (subscription required). Beyond that? The O’s are left hoping that Radhames Liz and/or Matt Albers have good enough control or a deep enough repertoire to be sufficient starters. And there’s Mark Hendrickson, who’s tall. So, there’s that.

I do not claim to have any special insight into Rich Hill’s health, mechanics or mental state, and the results in ’08 were grim. In 67 combined innings tossed last year between the majors, AAA, High-A and Rookie Ball, Hill walked 62 batters. Small sample size and all, Hill’s 2008 plate discipline numbers tell the story: aware that Hill couldn’t locate, opposing batters swung at just 10.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is close to 25%), and hitters swung just 34.8% of the time overall. Why go up hacking against a guy who’s very likely to issue a free pass?

Things didn’t get any better during the offseason, as he walked a batter per inning for Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League. Is it possible that Hill has “Steve Blass Disease” and the strike zone will continue to elude him? Sure.

But, what I do know is that on the whole, Hill has shown a solid skill-set in the majors. In 337.2 career frames, the University of Michigan product has punched out 8.24 batters per nine innings while walking 3.65 per nine. An extreme flyball pitcher (career 34.3 GB%), Hill has been burned by the home run (1.28 surrendered per nine innings). Overall, the 6-5 southpaw has posted a 4.57 FIP, close to league-average. Hill’s flyballing ways likely won’t serve him well as he transitions into the insanely competitive AL East and a ballpark that inflates home run production (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123).

So, what does Hill have to do to reclaim his past success? Aside from the obvious (“uh, throw more strikes”), Hill could stand to diversify his repertoire. He has always relied upon a high-80’s fastball and a big, slow-breaking curveball, but Hill basically eschewed his changeup last season, and also did so during a rough and short stint with the Cubs in 2005.

While keeping in mind that we are dealing with pitch data from only 19.2 innings, Hill threw a changeup just 2.3% of the time in ’08 compared to 8.3% in 2007. With no confidence in his fastball and a reluctance to pull the string, Hill threw his trademark curve 35.4% of the time (27.3% in ’07). Recapturing his fastball control and command will surely be paramount, but it couldn’t hurt to be a little less predictable as well.

Hill is no sure thing, but he presents the same “low-risk, high reward” opportunity for fantasy owners as he does for the Orioles. After such a brutal season, Hill is unlikely to be on many radar screens. Keep an eye on his progress during spring training- 2008 was disastrous, but he posted a near 3/1 K/BB ratio as recently as ’07. If Hill regains his control, he could prove to be a shrewd acquisition for open-minded owners.

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly made an offer to free agent first baseman Kevin Millar, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, and best known for his time in Boston. The offer is believed to be a minor league deal with the idea of employing him as a part-time bench player. That certainly is the correct role for Millar, a good clubhouse guy, at this point in his career.

Millar’s offensive numbers have been plummeting for the past three seasons and he is of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners, even in AL-only leagues. In the past three seasons, his line has gone from .272/.374/.437 to .254/.365/.420 to .234/.323/.394. Interestingly, his playing time increased each season from 503 to 562 to 610 plate appearances, which says a lot (and nothing good) about the situation in Baltimore. On the plus side, Millar’s power has remained constant (right around .160 ISO) for the past three years. He also takes his healthy share of walks (13.8 BB% in 2007, 11.8 BB% in 2008).

The problem with this potential signing, from a Fantasy perspective, is the negative impact it could have on the playing times of better players. Millar is a first baseman who also spends time at designated hitter. That means he will cut into the playing time of first baseman Lyle Overbay. It also, more importantly, cuts into the playing time of young, promising outfielders Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Lind is more advanced than Snider and could have a fairly productive season, if allowed to play everyday, with the occasional rest against a tough southpaw. Snider has the potential to be a massive star. He will not achieve those lofty heights in 2009 (in part due to his affinity for the strikeout), but there is a danger that he could end up sitting on the bench a fair bit, or find himself on the bus to Triple-A Las Vegas for a good portion of the season. Toronto is not going to contend in 2009, so the club might as well field its young, promising players.

In the newest installment in how luck may have played a role in a hitter’s fortune/misfortune, let’s take a look at Khalil Greene’s precipitous fall in 2008. Is there any hope for him going forward? I will once again refer you to Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix’s great work on xBABIP which will be referenced. Additionally, BABIP in these posts is defined (H-HR)/(PA-HR-K-BB-HBP) and xBABIp is the outcome you’d expect in a “luck-neutral environment.”

2008 did not treat Khalil Greene kindly. Hampered by injury and limited to only 105 games, Greene had his worst year as a Padre. He posted a slash-line of .219/.260/.339. In his four previous full seasons of work, he’d never posted an OPS below .725. Greene’s HR-output also took a significant hit: only 10 in 105 games. His k-rate was the highest of his career, as well. All in all it was a terrible year for Greene, but it might have been a little better with a little more luck.

Greene also posted the lowest BABIP of his career (.255), which was a pretty decent departure from his xBABIP of .276 and his career BABIP of .285. Obviously with his peripheral statistics down (along with his power), it makes sense that Greene’s xBABIP would expect him to perform at a lower level than his career norms. If we adjust his stat-line for the hits he seemed to lose to bad luck it would be a little more respectable .229/.274/.359. Those numbers are still pretty bad and likely someone you would not even sniff in a fantasy draft. Fortunately for Greene, he’s moving out of cavernous Petco Park and into the new Busch Stadium. While Busch Stadium is not Coors Field it should be at least a slight upgrade to Petco.

Below is his adjusted stat-line in four scenarios: the first is his actual 2008 numbers, followed by his numbers in Petco with “luck” stripped out, then those numbers in a neutral field, and finally his production using the new Busch Stadium’s park factors.

As you can see he isn’t setting the world on fire, but his numbers definitely improve. If Greene can also get his talent level back to where it was before 2008, then he would be due for a big resurgence. Greene also plays shortstop which is generally a pretty weak spot for hitters especially in deeper leagues. I would consider Greene as a late-round pickup or a guy to keep your eye on the first month of the season.

It’s a fair question to ask: which Washington entity has endured larger struggles since 2005- the executive and legislative branches of our government, or the Washington Nationals? While the former has implemented a pair of “bailout” packages to quell an economic maelstrom, the Nats very much remain a toxic asset.

Fresh off a sordid 102-loss campaign in which the club posted a run differential of -184, Washington’s big league ballclub could use all the help they can get. Luckily, if you squint really hard, you can see the beginnings of a turnaround.

Talented-but-volatile outfielder Elijah Dukes turned in an impressive season (a .382 wOBA with plus defense in right field). Center fielder Lastings Milledge and backstop Jesus Flores have oscillated between tantalizing and frustrating since arriving from the New York Mets via a trade and the Rule V Draft, respectively. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has sort of stagnated at the plate (wOBA’s from 2006-2008: .348, .340, .336), but the Virginia product is still just 24 years old and has been a big asset overall with an average of 3.9 Value Wins over the past three seasons. The offense was pretty lousy last season (with a .309 wOBA that ranked ahead of only the A’s), but one can at least dream upon Dukes and Zimmerman blossoming into all-around forces while simultaneously praying that Flores and Milledge can harness their control of the strike zone.

While there are some offensive pieces to the contending puzzle present, the rotation remains rather bleak. The Nats’ starting pitchers placed 28th in team FIP, faring better than only the lowly Rangers and Orioles. Presently, Washington’s rotation hopes lie in the hands of imports Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen, once-promising arms whose performances have tailed off dramatically. While expecting a rebound from either Cabrera or Olsen is a dubious proposition and incumbent “ace” John Lannan looks more like an adequate back-end starter than any sort of rotation headliner, Washington does have one potential ace up its sleeve.

Jordan Zimmermann, a 22 year-old right-hander, has quickly established himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization. A second-round pick in 2007 out of Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Zimmermann signed for $495,000 as the 67th player taken overall. As Baseball America noted at the time, a confluence of factors caused the four-pitch righty to hover under the radar somewhat:

“Scouts haven’t had an easy time following him this spring, however. Zimmermann broke his jaw in two places when he was struck by a batted ball while pitching live batting practice during an offseason workout. He missed three games and lost 10 pounds, and having wisdom teeth pulled during the season didn’t help him regain his strength. Bad early-season weather also made it difficult to keep him on a regular schedule.”

While that string of inauspicious events limited his scouting exposure, Zimmermann has enjoyed nothing but good luck since signing on the dotted line. Sent to the New York Penn League in the summer of ’07, the 6-2, 200 pounder immediately opened eyes in a 49-inning stint. The 2007 Division III College World Series MVP punched out 62 batters (11.39 K/9) and walked 16 (2.94 BB/9), posting a 2.18 FIP in the process.

One might expect a grizzled college pitcher to feast upon younger, less-experienced batters, but Zimmermann continued to eat up batsmen in 2008. Assigned to High-A Potomac to begin the year, Zimmermann quickly proved that his low-90’s heat, hard upper-80’s slider, mid-70’s hook and low-80’s changeup were no match for the Carolina League. In 27.1 frames, he compiled a 31/8 K/BB ratio and a 2.29 FIP. Bumped up to Double-A Harrisburg, Zimmermann continued to miss bats (8.69 K/9) and exhibited decent control (3.29 BB/9) in 106.2 innings (good for a 3.55 FIP). He kept the ball on the ground at both levels as well, with a 55 GB% at Potomac and a slightly above-average 48 GB% at Harrisburg.

There’s much to like about Zimmermann from both a statistical and scouting viewpoint. He has whiffed over a batter per inning during his rapid ascent through the minors, while exhibiting solid enough control and earning the adulation of the scouting community at the same time. Zimmermann ranked as Washington’s number one prospect following the ’08 season (per Baseball America) and checked in at #42 on Keith Law’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game. Said Law:

“Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well….He’s not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.”

Zimmermann might not be the classic fire-breathing pitching prospect who causes radar guns to melt, but his deep repertoire, strong peripherals and quick rise up the organizational ladder suggest that he could establish himself as Washington’s top arm in short order. Given the paucity of alternatives and the likelihood that the ballclub will spend another year in the NL East’s basement, the Nationals have every reason to give Zimmermann a look sometime during the 2009 season. Washington’s other Zimmerman(n) should stimulate a stagnant starting five and is well worth a look in fantasy leagues when he gets the call.