The Toronto Blue Jays were stuck between a rock and a hard place in 2008. The Jays were an excellent run-prevention club last season, surrendering just 610 runs (by far the lowest total in the game: the Dodgers finished a distant second with 648 tallies allowed). Toronto’s stinginess in permitting runners to cross home plate was a combined effort: the starters posted the third-best FIP in the majors (3.79), the guys in the ‘pen placed fourth (3.85) and the Jays flashed the leather, ranking third in Defensive Efficiency (.704). Despite tallying 86 victories and posting 93 Pythagorean Wins, Toronto finished fourth in the brutally competitive AL East.

Suffice it to say, things will not get any easier in 2009. With the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all poised to approach or surpass the 90-win mark again, the Jays stand little chance of competing. Last year’s strong rotation will be missing a few key pieces- A.J. Burnett defected to the Bombers, Shaun Marcum will miss the season following Tommy John surgery, and promising power pitcher Dustin McGowan is still in the process of recovering from shoulder surgery.

With the back of Toronto’s rotation unsettled, the opportunity exists for one of the more underappreciated youngsters in the minors to make his mark. Brett Cecil might just be the best pitching prospect that few have heard of.

Plucked out of Maryland in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft, Cecil was a top closer for the Terrapins in college. However, the Jays noted the lefty’s promising four-pitch mix (low-90’s fastball, plus slider, curve, changeup) and sturdy frame (6-3, 220 pounds) and envisioned a future starter.

Cecil’s transition into the rotation has gone exceedingly well. Sent to Auburn (New York-Penn League) to start his professional career, Cecil mowed down less experienced players. In 47 innings, he whiffed 56 batters (10.15 K/9) while filling up the strike zone as well (1.99 K/9). His heavy fastball made many a hitter put the ball on the ground, as Cecil posted a 57.9 GB%. The Terp’s 5.09 K/BB ratio and 2.05 FIP impressed Baseball America, as the publication named Cecil Toronto’s second-best farm product (behind Travis Snider). BA predicted that “his frontline stuff and bulldog demeanor” would allow Cecil to become “at least a number 3 starter.”

The power southpaw began the 2008 campaign at High-A Dunedin, but his stay there would be short. After punching out 11 in 10.1 innings, Cecil was promoted to AA New Hampshire. In 77.2 innings with the Fisher Cats, he continued to miss a ton of bats (10.08 K/9), limit the walks (2.67 BB/9) and burn many a worm (59.2 GB%). Cecil’s FIP in the Eastern League was a sparkling 2.71. Continuing his rapid ascent, Cecil reached AAA Syracuse last in the season. He issued a few too many free passes (4.7 BB/9) in 30.2 innings of work, but continued to fool hitters and keep his fielders on their toes (9.1 K/9, 67.4 GB%). BA Ranked Cecil 3rd in the Jays’ system following the season.

Brett Cecil might not make the Blue Jays straight out of spring training, but there’s a lot to like here. The big lefty has a track record of punching out a plethora of batters, has solid control and also possesses strong groundball tendencies. High K and groundball rates- that’s a recipe for success in the major leagues. He might just be ready to the jump to the highest level, too. Cecil’s translated FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94 in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs the 22 year-old for a tasty 3.54 ERA, 83 K’s and 34 BB’s in 90 innings in 2009. The groundball-centric hurler would also be flanked by plus defenders, as Toronto’s defensive alignment essentially returns intact.

Cecil might not come with the notoriety of a David Price or a Tommy Hanson, but he’s an intriguing arm in his own right. If you’re looking for a rookie starter who could hit the ground running, then Cecil is your man.

In 2006 Alfonso Soriano was the third-best fantasy hitter, thanks to a season that included 46 HR and 41 SB. Injuries curtailed his production in both 2007 and 2008, with a fractured left hand causing Soriano to miss 34 games last season. Currently, he has an ADP of 23, as fantasy owners are optimistic he will play a full season and approach the lofty levels he enjoyed back in 2006.

It is doubtful that Soriano will come close to 41 SB. He attempted 25 and 22 steals the past two seasons. And while those numbers would have been higher in a full season, even pro-rated they come up short of the 58 attempts he had in 2006. Soriano remains an excellent percentage base stealer (a fantastic 86 percent success rate in 2008) but at the age of 33 this season, it is likely his 40-steal days are behind him.

However, a return to 40 HR is not out of the question if he can play in 150 games. Soriano hits the necessary number of fly balls; his 48 percent fly ball rate ranked seventh in the majors in 2008. And while his 17.1 percent HR/FB rate was above average, it is in line with what he has done previously. His lifetime HR/FB mark is 15.7 percent.

But none of the four projection systems thinks a 150-game season is on tap for Soriano. Bill James is the most optimistic in regards to playing time, and it forecasts 140 games and 576 at-bats. On the other end of the spectrum, Marcel and Oliver see 465 and 461 at-bats, respectively. Soriano had 647 at-bats in his standout 2006 season.

With the questions about his playing time and how many steals he will likely post, it seems that Soriano is being slightly overvalued in the mock drafts. If you are intent on drafting an outfielder, Carlos Lee and Ichiro Suzuki would be potential replacements, with the latter’s AB-heavy AVG a nice thing to have.

Now that we have covered the cases for Freddy Garcia (a former workhorse trying to get his career on track) and Tim Redding (attempting to make an impression with his 6th organization), let’s turn our attention to the man with a recent track record perhaps more dubious than either Garcia’s or Redding’s: Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez, who turned 34 this past week, has racked up an astonishing 2,551 innings during the course of his career. I described Garcia as a horse yesterday, but the Cuban-born Hernandez has eaten frames like few else since debuting with the Marlins as a 21 year-old in 1996. From 1998 to 2007, Livan topped the 200-inning mark every year, save for ’99 (he fell just short with 199.2 innings). His peripherals have never been all that spectacular (5.69 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), but his league-average innings-munching (4.44 FIP) provided a good deal of value to Florida, San Francisco, Montreal and Washington.

Since 2007, however, Hernandez has seen his K rate fall to untenable levels. After whiffing 5.33 batters per nine between the Nats and D-Backs in ’06, Livan posted 3.96 K/9 for Arizona in ’07 and actually saw that rate fall to 3.35 per nine this past season.

Hernandez’s FIP (4.94) wasn’t as bad as his six-plus ERA, but the 6-2, 250 pounder is clearly walking a tight rope. Relying primarily on a “fastball” with beer-league softball velocity (he threw the 83.7 MPH pitch 72.4% of the time in 2008, 5th-most among all starters) and supplementing the pitch with a soft mid-70’s slider (16.6%) and a softer mid-60’s curve (6.7%), Hernandez was by far the easiest starter to make contact with.

Opposing hitters touched Hernandez’s offerings 91.3% of the time, nearly three percent higher than second-place sinkerballer Aaron Cook. Splitting the season between Minnesota and Planet Coors, Livan managed to surrender a hit total that looks like a typo: 257 in 180 innings. His BABIP was .345, but Hernandez’s offerings are put in play so often that he’s going to be subject to the caprices of his defense.

Inked to a minor league contract that will pay him $1M if he’s added to the 40-man roster (plus $1M in possible incentives), Hernandez is assured nothing from the club, nor should he be at this point in his lengthy career. Livan has had a durable, productive stay in the majors, but his days as anything more than a replacement-level arm are likely over.

The Baltimore Orioles have multiple reasons to thank the Seattle Mariners, and right-hander Chris Tillman is one of the top gifts that the club received in the Erik Bedard trade prior to the 2008 season. Tillman’s minor league numbers were nothing special prior to the 2008 season, but he was a second-round pick out of a California high school in the 2006 draft.

Tillman posted a 5.26 ERA in High-A ball for the Mariners in 2007, but his FIP was significantly better at 4.43. He allowed 107 hits in 102.2 innings with rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The right-hander jumped to Double-A for the 2008 season with the Orioles and Tillman allowed just 115 hits in 135.2 innings. He also posted rates of 4.31 BB/9 and 10.22 K/9.

Once Tillman’s control improves, he could be absolutely dominating with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball with plus potential. The change-up is still developing. Tillman performed well against both right-handed and left-handed hitters in 2008, although he allowed a HR/9 rate of 0.93 against RH batters, as opposed to 0.29 HR/9 against LH batters.

Tillman has a couple of fellow pitching prospects who will serve as competition for starting roles, including right-hander Jake Arrieta and southpaw Brian Matusz, the club’s top pick in 2008. The good news is that there are not many – if any – pitchers currently in the big club’s starting rotation that are secure in their roles (expect perhaps Jeremy Guthrie). Radhames Liz and David Hernandez are two other pitchers to keep in mind for rotation spots as well, and Liz already had a taste of the Majors.

If all goes well for the Orioles (But when does it with young pitching?), all five pitchers could be in the club’s MLB starting rotation by the end of 2010, and Tillman should be near the top of the list. As for this season, keep an eye on Tillman in the spring to see where he falls on the depth chart for a possible mid-season call-up. If he does hit the Majors this season, he could struggle a bit because of his control issues and inexperience. Expect about six wins, 100 innings pitched and 110 hits allowed, as well as rates of 4.50 BB/9 and 7.25 K/9.

Yesterday, we examined the multitude of questions facing the Mets’ rotation entering 2009 and examined fifth-starter candidate Freddy Garcia. Garica isn’t the only free-agent signee looking for a fresh start in Queens, however: Tim Redding will also vie for the last spot in the Mets’ rotation.

The 31 year-old Redding has been a roster nomad during the course of his career, not an altogether surprising turn of events for a hurler with a career 4.85 FIP. The Rochester, New York native was originally selected by the Houston Astros in the 20th round of the 1998 amateur draft. Redding pitched for the ‘Stros from 2001-2004, transitioning between the bullpen and the starting rotation. The right-hander generally didn’t find Enron/Astros Field/Minute Maid to his liking, as he posted inflated HR rates in three of his four seasons in the Lone Star State. He did turn in a decent 2003 season, however, with a 4.12 FIP.

Redding was shipped to the Padres in the spring of ’05 for Humberto Quintero, but scarcely pitched for the Fathers before being bartered to the Yankees during the summer. He posted a 6.61 FIP between the two clubs in 30.2 innings. Coming off of such a poor year, Redding accepted a minor league pact from the White Sox in 2006 and spent the entire campaign at AAA Charlotte. The veteran performed adequately, with 7.1 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 4.07 FIP.

The pitching-starved Nationals came calling in 2007, and Redding joined the club’s AAA New Orleans affiliate to begin the year. Striking out 6.32 per nine innings and walking 2.41, Redding was called back up to the big leagues for the first time since his ugly ’05 stint with San Diego and New York. In 84 frames for Washington, Redding posted a 3.64 ERA. However, the underlying numbers were less impressive: with a 1.24 K/BB ratio (5.04 K/9, 4.07 BB/9), a 5.17 FIP and a low BABIP, Redding figured to regress in 2008.

Redding’s ERA did head north this past season, as his FIP (4.93) and ERA (4.95) were nearly a perfect match. The 5-11, 225 pounder did improve his peripherals somewhat, with 5.93 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9, though he did remain homer-prone (1.34 HR/9). However, despite Washington’s dearth of starting options, Redding was non-tendered by the Nats. He latched on to the Mets on a one-year, $2.25 million deal earlier this offseason. While one of Redding’s competitors (Garcia) has plenty of health issues to answer, Redding is not entirely in the clear either: Redding had surgery during the offseason to repair a stress fracture in his left foot and is now dealing with a sore shoulder.

A four-pitch guy (91 MPH curve, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curve, low-80’s changeup), Redding lacks any definitive strength as a pitcher. His K rates are slightly below league average, his walk rate is ordinary and he’s a bit prone to grooving a pitch that ends up in the bleachers. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some value: the threshold for fifth starters is very low, and teams benefit from just getting better than replacement-level pitching from the spot. For fantasy purposes, though? It’s probably best to avoid Redding.

Entering the offseason, the Mets figured to address their wretched bullpen (25th in Win Probability Added in 2008). The team from Queens did just that, acquiring J.J. Putz from the Mariners in a 12-player bonanza and inking free-agent Francisco Rodriguez. However, there were also rumors of the club fortifying the starting rotation by courting free-agent sinkerballer Derek Lowe (now a Brave) as well as Ben Sheets (no longer feasible, given his torn flexor tendon injury that required surgery) . Instead, the Mets resigned Oliver Perez, whose occasional brilliance is supplemented with a boatload lot of walks and homers (Perez’s three-year Win Value totals: 0.0 in 2006, 2.2 in ’07 and 1.3 in ’08).

The Mets enter 2009 with an improved ‘pen, but there are a plethora of questions about the men asked to give six or seven strong innings prior to those high-profile relievers entering the ballgame. Changeup artist Johan Santana may no longer be the unstoppable force of his Minnesota days, but 85-90% of peak Santana is still one heck of a pitcher. Beyond that, each member of the rotation has a question to answer. How healthy is John Maine, who was bothered by a bone spur in his shoulder last season? Can Mike Pelfrey (4.93 K/9 in ’08) supplement his two-seamer with something that bends? Will the aforementioned Perez (retained for 3 years and $36M) be anything more than a well-compensated league-average starter?

New York also enters spring training with an open competition for the fifth-starter’s role, featuring a former rotation horse (Freddy Garcia), a Washington retread (Tim Redding), the most hittable starter in the game (Livan Hernandez), a southpaw prospect (Jonathon Niese) and another farm product whose stats have never matched his generous scouting reports (Robert Parnell). For now, let’s take a look at Freddy Garcia

Garcia, now 33, was once as durable as any starter in the game. The right-hander topped the 200-inning mark each season between 2001 and 2006, generally providing Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low four’s. Chief Garcia’s combination of quantity and quality made him one of the more underappreciated hurlers in the AL, as he provided an average of 3.6 Value wins over the 2002-2006 period. The Phillies acquired Garcia from the White Sox in December of 2006 (for package of Gavin Floydl and Gio Gonzalez), figuring that they acquired a guy who would give them 200+ innings of quality pitching.

Unfortunately, Garcia’s career has taken a sharp downward turn since that point. The Venezuelan tossed just 58 frames for the Phillies in 2007, suffering from biceps tendinitis in spring training before succumbing to labrum surgery in late August.

Garcia missed the majority of the 2008 season while rehabbing, latching on to the pitching-thin Tigers toward the end of the summer. He made three late-season starts, including one against his former employer, the White Sox. Freddy had to bow out of that game with shoulder soreness, then had a similar issue while pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League.

The 6-4, 260 pounder once sat in the low-90’s and supplemented the heat with a hard slider, but he sat in the upper-80’s with his fastball in ’08, with a softer, less-utilized slide-piece. Garcia has always possessed a wide array of offerings (fastball, slider, curve, change, splitter), and he relied upon the changeup/splitter heavily in his short stint last year. Garcia’s health will ultimately determine how much he can contribute, but there’s little harm in seeing if he can reclaim his career with little money guaranteed: according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Freddy will make $1.5M if he’s added to the 40-man roster, with $6.5M in incentives possible. An MRI taken on Garcia’s shoulder in December showed no structural damage, which is certainly a positive.

The chances of Garcia becoming a 200+ inning starter again are very slim. However, he could provide some value to the Mets and fantasy owners if his shoulder allows him to continue his career.

Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston recently stated that rookie phenom Travis Snider, only 21, would have to play himself off the team this spring. The left-handed outfielder rocketed through the system last year, playing at four levels (including the Majors) despite beginning the year stuck at DH with a wonky elbow.

The 14th overall pick of the 2006 draft out of a Washington state high school has a career minor league line of .299/.375/.513 in 1,138 at-bats. Last season, he spent the majority of the season in Double-A and struggled with his batting average and strikeouts. However, his elbow was reportedly the cause of the early problems; Snider hit .125/.288/.125 with 18 strikeouts in his first 32 at-bats at that level. He ended his stint in Double-A at .262 and then hit .344 in an 18-game stay in Triple-A.

Snider was called up to the Majors to finish the season and more than held his own as a 20 year old. He hit .301/.338/.466 with a .164 ISO in 73 at-bats. He also posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 31.5 K%. His walk rates have been better in the minors, so that should improve before too long. Snider’s strikeout rate, though, will likely be high until he acclimatizes to the Majors and matures a bit as a hitter. As a result, don’t expect him to hit for a high average any time soon. That said, he has a swing that could eventually produce a few .290-.310 seasons. He also has 35-homer power.

Defensively, Snider has the arm to play right field, but the range for left. That should not be an issue with two of the better defensive outfielders in the American League in center field (Vernon Wells) and right field (Alex Rios). Adam Lind, 25, could also spend some time in left when he is not in the designated-hitter role. Unfortunately, both promising youngsters swing from the left side so a platoon is not in order. Snider has more power than Lind, but the U of South Alabama alum is more likely to flirt with a .300 average at this point.

Snider should be in the top five when it comes to considering prospects to draft for your keeper leagues, and he could have an immediate impact in all fantasy leagues while competing for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The only thing that could prevent him from hitting 20 homers in his first full Major League season is an injury.

Earlier today, we profiled Sean Marshall (a five-pitch lefty with shelf life, if not upside) and Aaron Heilman (solid reliever, dubious starter) as candidates for Chicago’s vacant fifth starter’s job. Let’s continue to examine that competition by putting Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin under the microscope.

Like Heilman, Samardzija is a former Fighting Irish star. The Cubs lured the potential NFL wide receiver to the mound from the gridiron with a five-year, $10 million big league contract back in 2006. Since then, the 6-5, 220 pounder has authored an inscrutable stat line in the minors. In his full-season debut in 2007, Samardzija scarcely missed any bats (3.77 K/9) in 107.1 innings at High-A Daytona, though his control was fair (2.93 BB/9) and he posted a 52 GB%. Bumped up to AA Tennessee for the second half of the season, Samardzija still didn’t smoke many batters with the Smokies, punching out 5.24 batters per nine in 34.1 frames.

Sent back to Tennessee to kick off the 2008 campaign, Samardzija continued to compile mediocre numbers. He K’d just 5.21 per nine innings, while walking nearly five (4.97 BB/9) in 76 innings of work. Despite that dubious performance, Samardzija was promoted to AAA Iowa. In the corn fields, Samardzija actually began to show some of the skills that earned him such a hefty bonus. In 37.1 innings, he posted rates of 9.64 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Promoted to the majors in late July, Samardzija tossed 27.1 innings for the North Siders. He missed bats (8.13 K/9), though his control was erratic (4.88 BB/9). The powerful repertoire which caused the Cubs to open the coffers was on display, as Samardzija’s fastball sat around 95 MPH out of the ‘pen. He supplemented the heat with a low-80’s slider and a mid-80’s split-finger/changeup.

Lou Pinella recently called Samardzija the club’s “sixth starter”, suggesting that the 24 year-old could be headed for AAA to stay stretched out if he doesn’t claim the fifth-starter’s role. Opinions of Samardzija’s future role (starter? reliever?) and ultimate level of success diverge wildly. Some feel (and perhaps justifiably so) that the power righty is still relatively new to the craft, having split his time in college between two sports. Others look at his mixed track record and big bonus, concluding that the Cubs spent grandly for a raw pitcher in his mid-20’s. Given Samardzija’s progress this past season, he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the season unfolds.

Gaudin, soon 26, has really been around for a useful pitcher in his mid-20’s. Originally selected by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays in the 34th round of the 2001 draft, Gaudin has since been involved in three trades (including last summer’s Rich Harden swap), passing through Tampa, Toronto, Oakland and Chicago. The chances of Gaudin earning the job are very remote (he appears headed for the bullpen), but he did make 34 starts for the A’s back in 2007. The results were mixed, as he posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9, with a 4.69 FIP. The 5-10, 188 pounder is coming off of his best season in the majors. In 90 frames out of the ‘pen for the A’s and the Cubs, Gaudin whiffed 7.1 batters per nine innings while keeping his walks in check (2.7 BB/9). Gaudin provides adequate coverage in the event of an injury.

The thing to keep in mind with all of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates is that each could end up seeing some starts at some point during the season. Teams never go through an entire year using just their top five guys; often, upwards of ten hurlers will take the mound to start a game. Chicago in particular could need such depth: Rich Harden is exceptionally talented but notoriously frail, and Carlos Zambrano is starting to show some signs of fatigue from a heavy workload at a young age.

While the Chicago Cubs have made some curious decisions this offseason, the club still enters spring training as the overwhelming favorites in the National League Central. Fresh off of a 97-win season backed up by their runs scored/allowed total (+184 runs), the Cubs are projected to claim victory 96 times in 2009, per Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system.

While spots one through four will in Chicago’s rotation be filled by Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, several arms will duel for the fifth slot this spring. Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin will all likely receive some degree of consideration for the job. First, let’s profile Marshall and Heilman.

Marshall, 26, is said to be the favorite to round out the rotation. The lanky lefty was recently tabbed by Cubs skipper Lou Pinella as the 5th man heading into camp. Selected out of Virginia Commonwealth in the 6th round of the 2003 amateu draft, Marshall comes at hitters with about as eclectic a mix of pitches as you’re going to find. Marshall supplements a tame 87-88 MPH fastball with a slow low-70’s curve, a mid-80’s cutter/slider and a changeup.

The 6-7, 220 pounder has tossed 294.1 career innings in the majors, posting a 4.97 FIP, 6.18 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9. Marshall is coming off of his most positive experience in the big leagues, as he struck out nearly eight batters per nine, walked about 3.2 and compiled a 4.39 FIP in 65.1 innings in 2008. Interestingly, Marshall has changed his pitching approach considerably since his first trial with the Cubs in 2006. Back then, he used his fastball about 52% of the time while also pulling out his changeup about 21%. In ’08, he used his heater just 38% of the time, with a changeup utilized just five percent. Marshall has filled the gap with more cutters and curves. There’s little upside here, but the five-pitch southpaw could enjoy a lengthy career as a swingman/innings-eater type.

Heilman, the erstwhile Mets reliever who spent a few days as Mariners property this offseason, has gone on the record as saying that he would like to start. However, his qualifications for such a role are not immediately apparent. From 2005-2007, the Notre Dame product had a good deal of success in Queens, though his FIP did rise each season (2.97 in ’05, 3.28 in ’06, 3.86 in ’07). As a fastball/changeup reliever, Heilman was an asset. In 2008, however, Heilman began messing around with a slider, perhaps in an attempt to show that he had the three-pitch mix to go out there every fifth day.

While it’s hard to say for sure whether Heilman’s experimentation led to his struggles, his performance did head south. He struck out nearly nine-and-a half batters per nine innings, but Heilman’s walk rate soared (5.45 BB/9), he gave up a few more flyballs (his GB% fell about five percent to 40.8%) and he surrendered 1.18 HR/9. The end result was a mild 4.91 FIP. The Cubs essentially swapped both Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno to acquire Heilman’s services. That’s quite the price to pay for a good, not great reliever or a kinda-sorta-rotation candidate.

One of the most undervalued fantasy players year-in and year-out is Carlos Lee. Last year, Lee was on pace for one of his best seasons ever before a finger injury ended his season in early August. At the time, Lee was in the midst of a prolonged hot streak. In his final 243 plate appearances of the year, he had a .366/.432/.648 line with 16 HR and 54 RBIs in 216 at-bats.

On first glance, it looks like Lee has declined two straight years, with falling numbers in HR, R and SB. Because of this, the Marcel and Oliver projections are not kind to Lee. Fantasy players perhaps have similar notions, as Lee has an ADP of 27 according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central. That makes him the ninth-rated outfielder.

Earlier, I extolled the virtues of Mark Teixeira and noted how he had averaged a .298-35-120-100 fantasy line over the past four years. Well, Lee has a .294-32-112-85 line in that same time frame but also has averaged 12 SB per year. If Teixeira is properly valued at 13, does it not seem a little low for Lee to be at 27?

Throughout his career, Lee has been very durable. Last year’s finger injury was a freak accident and reports have him representing Panama in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Lee has seen no drop off in his hitting skills. He still does a good job with his plate discipline and his batted ball profile with a 21.2 percent line drive rate and a 43.6 percent fly ball rate last year stacks up nicely with his career numbers. Any fantasy player who gets Lee in the third round this year should be extremely happy.