Jimmy Rollins probably left many fantasy owners disappointed last year. He hit .277/.349/.437 with 11 homers and 47 steals in 137 games. Obviously, those are good numbers, but they are may be a little below what optimistic owners were expecting. What can we expect from Rollins in 2009?

Let’s start with batting average. Rollins hit .277 last year, after hitting .296, .277, .290 and .289 over the last four seasons, respectively. Rollins’s strikeout rate was actually the lowest of his career last season, as he struck out in only 9.9% of his at bats. Over the last five years, his K rate has hovered right around 10-12%. However, last season Rollins’s BABIP was .285, but his expected BABIP (according to a new model I introduced) was .323. If you add in those “missing” hits, Rollins’s batting average becomes .311.

Additionally, Rollins improved his walk rate in 2008 – he walked a career-high 9.4% of the time, the first time in his career that he was even over 8%. This led to the highest OBP of his career, despite the (relatively) low batting average. As a result, Rollins had more opportunities to steal bases. Furthermore, he stole bases at an incredibly efficient clip, getting caught just three times in 50 attempts; this continues a trend that began in 2005 – since (and including) that year, Rollins has been successful on 165 of his 184 stolen base attempts, an impressive 90% conversion rate.

Perhaps the most disappointing thing about Rollins’s 2008 was his power – or lack thereof. He totaled only 11 long balls, after hitting 55 over the previous two seasons combined. Part of the problem was that Rollins played in only 137 games in 2008, after having played in every single game in 2007 and 158 games in 2006. More of the problem appears to be the fact that Rollins stopped hitting fly balls – only 30.6% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008. In 2007, Rollins hit fly balls 44.2% of the time, but that appears to be an outlier in his career: in the three seasons before 2007, his fly ball percentages were 36.9%, 32.1% and 35.8%.

His fly balls became homers at a lower rate in 2008 (7.7% of his fly balls left the park) than in the past two years (11.1% and 10.7%, respectively), but his career HR/FB is 8.8%. The biggest problem was Rollins reverting to his ground ball tendencies – an issue that could have to do with faulty mechanics and/or the sprained ankle that sent him to the DL in April (although I highly doubt a sprained ankle would sap a player of his power). However, it could simply be that Rollins’s 2007 season was a fluke in terms of fly balls – he hasn’t hit nearly as many fly balls in any other season.

If we assume that Rollins’s fly ball totals from 2007 were out of whack, so too must we assume that the 30 homers he hit that season are likely going to be a career high. It’s certainly possible that Rollins will regain some homers from his dismal 2008 year (dismal in terms of power production, that is), as his fly ball rate will probably rise somewhat, and he could see a slightly higher proportion of his fly balls leave the park. Still, an increase in these two areas would probably yield somewhere around 15-20 homers, maybe 25 (assuming Rollins stays healthy all season). As Rollins will be 30 years old next season, it’s quite likely that he won’t match his age with his homer total ever again.

However, even accounting for Rollins’s relative lack of homers, it appears that he improved his game in other facets this season – improvements that he may carry with him into next year. Rollins is still an incredibly efficient base stealer who also runs often, and this should continue next year. Furthermore, if Rollins can take his improved strikeout- and walk-rates with him into next season, he could see a rise in his batting average (remember, his batting average should have been .311 this year) and OBP, leading to more opportunities to steal bases and more runs scored atop a powerful Phillies lineup.

You shouldn’t draft Jimmy Rollins expecting 30 homers, but you can reasonably expect 15-20 bombs, and perhaps even a batting average of around .300 and upwards of 50-60 steals. That’s still a heck of a player, especially for a shortstop.

Let’s say you’ve signed up for a fantasy baseball league – either with your buddies, or a public league with people you’ve never met before. Let’s say that you’re in a league with prizes – a league in which you probably had to pay some sort of entry fee. You plan on spending a lot of time fine-tuning your team throughout the season. Obviously, your goal is to win this league.

If you want to win, don’t get caught up in being a fan.

I don’t care if you passionately hate the Yankees – if Alex Rodriguez is available in the second round, you had better take him. I don’t care if you bleed Cubbie blue – don’t draft Kosuke Fukudome in the 8th round. If you really want to win, you have to remove your own fandom from your fantasy team.

This is often more easily said than done. Some people just can’t stand the sight of players they hate manning a roster spot on their beloved fantasy team. Others can’t stand seeing their favorite guys wasting away on an opponent’s roster. But if you’re going to pay money and dedicate all of this time you building a winning fantasy team, don’t undermine your own efforts. Just because you have Arod on your team doesn’t mean you have to become a Yankees fan, and just because you don’t have your own guys on your team doesn’t mean you can’t root for them. Separate fantasy from reality.

You just have to get over it, or make the decision that rooting against Arod is more important than winning the league. There’s nothing wrong with deciding that, either – to each his or her own. But you had better understand the consequences of such a decision, and be okay with it. You can’t decide against drafting Arod and then complain if you don’t win your league – you had the chance, and you decided you that your hatred of Arod was more important than winning. So don’t be surprised if you lose.

You can be a fan and be a fantasy player at the same time. Just make sure to keep them separate.

It is safe to say that the St. Louis Cardinals organization has a lot of outfield depth. The club can boast at least six Major-League-worthy outfielders in its 40-man roster, including Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Joe Mather, and Skip Schumaker. Top prospect Colby Rasmus, not currently on the big league roster, is also an outfielder and spent the entire 2008 season in Triple-A.

Barton and Mather are solid fourth or fifth outfielders – versatile and can do a little bit of everything. After hitting .147 against southpaws in 2008, Duncan is a platoon player and poor fielder.

Based on his offensive profile, Schumaker is best-suited to center-field because he does not hit for power (.104 ISO in 2008). Unfortunately, his defensive numbers suggest that he has below average range for center (1.78 RF/g compared to the league average of 2.26) and is better off in left-field. Not only is Schumaker likely to return to a fourth-outfielder role in the near future, he is also of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners due to his lack of power and stolen bases (12 in 296 career games).

There are not many players in the Major Leagues that topped Ludwick’s offensive season in 2008. Everyone kept waiting for him to regress after disappointing clubs in five previous seasons, but he ended up hitting .299 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI. In fact, his OPS improved from .962 in the first half of the season to .971 in the second (although that was aided by a boost in BABIP from .313 to .381). At the age of 30, Ludwick is probably not going to get better but he could maintain a .270-280 average with 25-30 home runs in 2009.

Everyone knows Ankiel’s story by now. The converted pitcher had a respectable season in 2008 by anyone’s standards with a .264 batting average, 25 home runs and 71 RBI. However, his offence really dropped off in the second half of the season with his triple-slash line going from .270/.343/.537 to .245/.319/.415. The left-handed batter struggled against southpaws all season long with an average of .224.

By looking at the above players we can see that none of them deserve to stand in the way of Rasmus, who has the potential to surpass each one of them offensively and defensively. In the outfield, Rasmus has outstanding range in center-field with a 2.35 RF/g in 2008, as well as a strong arm. Offensively, he has game-changing power potential after hitting 29 home runs with a .275 ISO at Double-A in 2007.

His 2008 season at Triple-A does not look as impressive, but the talented outfielder had a slow start to the season and then hurt his knee and groin just as he was heating up. There is little doubt that Rasmus will begin the 2009 season in Triple-A, given St. Louis’ depth and the fact that he hit just .251/.347/.396 in 2008. His career line is solid at .277/.367/.486 in 1,532 at-bats. The left-handed batter has also handed southpaws well in his career, which is something that cannot be said for the outfielders currently in St. Louis. Last season, Rasmus hit .245/.349/.336 against them, compared to .256/.354/.433 against right-handers. In his career, Rasmus has hit .275/.371/.455 against lefties and .278/.364/.496 against righties.

Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.

With the versatile Mark DeRosa headed to Cleveland for a trio of minor league arms (Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub), there may be competition for the second base position in the Windy City. The Cubs brought in a “Proven Veteran” to hold down the job (more on him later), but the club’s best bet to replace DeRosa at the keystone was already on the roster: Mike Fontenot.

Originally a 21st-round pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 1999 amateur draft, Fontenot decided to attend Louisiana State University instead of signing with Tampa. Teaming with Ryan Theriot, the lefty-swinging Fontenot enjoyed a successful collegiate career which improved his draft stock dramatically. After leading the Tigers to the 2000 College World Series, Fontenot was plucked by the Baltimore Orioles with the 19th overall selection in the 2001 draft. He endured a lukewarm first season in 2002 (.264/.333/.364 in 481 AB at High-A Frederick), but turned in a solid campaign at AA Bowie in 2003 (.325/.399/.481 in 449 AB).

Following a so-so season at AAA Ottawa in 2004 (.279/.346/.420 in 524 AB), Fontenot was shipped to the North Siders, along with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Dave Crouthers, in exchange for Sammy Sosa. Unfortunately for the Orioles, Sosa’s goose was cooked (he would turn in a sub-replacement level performance in his only season in Baltimore). Fontenot, meanwhile, bided his time in AAA during the ’05 and ’06 seasons before finally getting some major league playing time over the past two years.

In about a full-season’s worth of plate appearances, the diminutive second baseman has posted a .290/.369/.457 line, with a 10.8 BB% and a 19.6% whiff rate. Despite receiving just 284 PA last season, Fontenot was about 16 runs above average with the bat, posting a .395 wOBA.

When evaluating Fontenot, it is important to keep in mind that we have a relatively small sample size in terms of projecting his future performance. As such, Marcel isn’t as useful for a player like this (as evidenced by his 0.67 REL score; there’s just not a whole lot of data to go on). For what it’s worth, Marcel projects Fontenot to post a .355 wOBA in 2009. Let’s be pessimistic and pare that figure down to .345. If the 5-8, 170 pounder were to get regular playing time (let’s say, 600 PA), he would be about 5.2 runs above average with the bat.

Compare that to the fellow whom the Cubs just inked to a questionable two-year, $4.9 million deal: Aaron Miles. The 32 year-old posted a decent .331 wOBA in 2008, but that performance was fueled by a .343 BABIP figure: Miles was more or less than same slappy hitter who rarely walks (career 5.6 BB%) and does not drive the ball (.076 ISO). Marcel projects Miles to post a .308 wOBA in ’09. Over 600 PA, that comes out to about -14.1 runs compared to an average hitter. Clearly, Fontenot is the superior batsman.

It stands to reason, then, that Chicago feels as though Miles’ defensive work makes up the difference. However, it’s pretty difficult to find justification on that front either. Caveat emptor again on the sample size, but Fontenot has posted a 12.4 UZR/150 at second base thus far. Let’s again be pessimistic and halve that number, making Fontenot a +6.2 defender per 150 games. That figure is still well ahead of Miles, who has a career -3.5 UZR/150 at second. Even if we take his marks over the past three years (admittedly better than his career work) and weigh them accordingly, Miles comes out as a +1 run defender. So, Let’s tally up the scores of our second base contestants…

Fontenot
+ 5.2 hitting
+6.2 fielding
+ 2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level

= 33.9 Runs Above Replacement, 3.4 WAR

Miles
-14.1 hitting
+1 fielding
+2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level

= 9.4 Runs Above Replacement, 0.94 WAR

Using these projections, Fontenot bests Miles by nearly two and a half wins. Even if you think that Fontenot’s numbers are still too optimistic and Miles’ too low, it’s exceedingly difficult to close that wide of a gap. Fontenot is without question the better hitter, and it seems likely that his glove will help out the pitching staff more than Miles’ would to boot.

Fantasy owners will want to watch Chicago’s second base situation closely. If the Cubs make the right choice, Mike Fontenot could be a fairly valuable commodity as an up-the-middle player with decent on-base skills and a little more sock than one might think. In a battle between “scrappy” middle infielders, this one really isn’t that close.