The Los Angeles Dodgers organization has committed to a number of veteran infielders this off-season, including third baseman Casey Blake, shortstop Rafael Furcal, and second baseman Mark Loretta. There are a number of positives that can be taken from those acquisitions, but there are also three negatives: the loss of opportunities for promising young players Chin-Lung Hu, Blake DeWitt, and Tony Abreau.

Hu had a dismal season in Los Angeles in 2008 and he hit just .181/.252/.233 with an ISO of .052 in 116 at-bats. The Dodgers gave up way too quickly on the gifted fielder, who is just 24 years old. He has a solid minor league career line of .299/.344/.422 in more than 2,200 at-bats. Hu also had good bat and strike zone control. He had an overall contact rate of 82.8% and made contact in the strike zone at a rate of 92.9%. Even during his poor season his rates were 8.7 BB% and 19.8 K%, which suggests he was not over-matched. He could stand to get stronger though, with a line-drive rate of just 12%.

DeWitt was not supposed to be anywhere near the Major Leagues in 2008, but he spent just 27 games in the minor leagues. The remainder of his time was spent playing for the Dodgers and filling in admirably at both second base and third base. Despite being rushed, the now 23-year-old infielder hit .264/.344/.383 with an ISO of .120 in 368 at-bats. He posted rates of 10.9 BB% and 18.5 K%. He had a nice eye at the plate and only swung at pitches outside the strike zone 24% of the time. After slumping in June and July, DeWitt improved his game in late August and September and showed that he could make adjustments. The former first-round pick may not have set the world on fire in 2008 but he certainly deserved another shot in 2009.

Abreu missed all of 2008 after undergoing hip surgery in May. In 2007, at the age of 22, he made his MLB debut and hit .271/.309/.404 with an ISO of .133 in 166 at-bats. Abreu maintained that line despite a .301 BABIP. Defensively, he split time between second base, third base and even shortstop.

Of the three veteran signings, the Furcal move makes the most sense, followed by Loretta and then Blake. Furcal is only 31 and still has offensive potential – if he can stay healthy – but he does not utilize his speed like he used to in his prime. You have to worry a little bit about him pulling a Luis Castillo. Loretta, 37, is still a solid contributor and only signed a modest one-year contract. Blake has been consistent in the last few years but at 35 his time is running out and his three-year deal could look pretty bad in 2011.

With the expiration of Loretta’s contract for the 2010 season, DeWitt, Abreu or Hu may have the opportunity to secure another full-time big league gig, but there certainly won’t be room for all three. The Dodgers also have promising shortstop Ivan DeJesus, 21, who hit .324/.419/.423 in 463 Double-A at-bats in 2008.

The CHONE Projections are now up in the player pages, the projections section, and you can get a customized player list of projections using the MyTeam feature.

Huge thanks to Sean Smith for allowing us to post the projections again this year and don’t forget to check out baseballprojection.com to see any player’s projection in more detail.

The signing of former Rays’ outfielder Rocco Baldelli has caused the Red Sox to bump knuckleballer Charlie Zink from the club’s 40-man roster. It’s the first time Zink has been designated for assignment so he will remain in the organization unless another team grabs him on the waiver wire – or trades for him.

It would be a shock if someone does not take a shot at the right-hander. Zink is still young in knuckleball years at the age of 29 and there certainly are not a lot of pitchers that can consistently throw the pitch with any type of success. In 2008 at Triple-A, Zink allowed just 144 hits in 174.1 innings, with rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 5.47 K/9. He’s done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park during his career and he allowed just 13 home runs in 2008 (0.67 HR/9). On the superficial level, he went 14-6 and had an ERA of 2.84 (but a FIP of 3.99). Zink would have received a much larger big league opportunity in 2008 in just about any other Major League organization, but Boston’s starting pitching depth was just too deep.

In his only career MLB appearance, which came on Aug. 12, 2008 against Texas, he allowed eight runs and 11 hits (but just one walk) in 4.1 innings. During that start, almost 73% of his pitches were knuckleballs averaging out at 68.5 mph. He threw 21.4% fastball (at an average of 82.2 mph) and mixed in a few 76 mph sliders. Zink threw a first-pitch strike 60% of the time.

It would be shocking if this was Zink’s one and only MLB appearance. There are a lot of teams out there that could use a fourth or fifth starter with his potential, especially after his solid 2008 Triple-A season and given his unique repertoire. Clubs that should consider Zink include San Diego, Houston, Milwaukee, Texas, and Baltimore.

Fans and athletes alike enjoy playing the “no one believed” card. Most of the time it’s garbage but in the case of Dustin Pedroia perhaps there’s something there. Fans and analysts have been looking for reasons to doubt him for years and Pedroia just keeps exceeding all expectations.

In 2005, Pedroia tore up Double-A (.324/.409/.508) but struggled when he was promoted to Triple-A. Rather than recognize that he played the end of the season with a wrist injury, people doubted. In 2006, Pedroia played well in Triple-A (.305/.384/.426) but hit under .200 in 81 at-bats for Boston. So the doubts lingered.

So, in 2007 Pedroia puts up a .317/.380/.442 line in the majors and wins the Rookie of the Year. Then for an encore, he goes out and puts up a .326/.376/.493 line and wins the AL MVP. Surely now, everyone must be convinced that this is a player who makes adjustments and adapts to the level of his competition, right?

Our own Matthew Carruth wrote about Pedroia, “Even with the regression that should come on his bat next year…”

Now, Matthew is a lot smarter than me. And if someone as accomplished as he thinks that Pedroia will regress noticeably in 2009, that is a pretty good indication of where smart money is on this subject.

To buttress Matthew’s position, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Pedroia was the 12th-best fantasy hitter last year, putting up a dollar value of $31.68 in 2008. In other words, there’s not much room for continued improvement.

But none of Pedroia’s peripherals seem to be outrageous. Yes, he made a 42-point jump in his isolated slugging but his .167 mark ranked 85th in the majors. Yes, he more than doubled his HR output but neither his FB% (36 percent) nor his HR/FB (7.8 percent) are anywhere close to putting him on the first page of the FanGraph’s Leaderboards. Yes, Pedroia had a .336 BABIP last year but he had a .334 mark in the category the year before.

We make snap judgments about people all of the time. It’s one of the ways we make sense of the world. Pedroia is listed here as 5-foot-9 and he appears even smaller in person. He plays hard. We see small, white and scrappy and our snap judgment is that Pedroia should be like David Eckstein, he of the lifetime .361 slugging percentage.

Because few complained or predicted regression when 6-foot-1 Chase Utley upped his ISO 47 points from .202 to .249, did they? Utley’s a big guy and no one is surprised when a big guy displays power. Plus Utley did this going from age 25 to 26, when improvement is a reasonable thing to expect.

Pedroia had his ISO leap from age 23 to 24.

Anyway, a lot of things went right for Pedroia last year and it would not be a surprise to see a drop in last year’s numbers. At the very least, he could pull an Ian Kinsler and come down with an injury and miss 35 games. But what player who has only been in the majors for two seasons could we not say that about?

This could be the last year to get Pedroia at a bargain. That is because if he puts up a season like 2008 again, everyone will see it as a trend and not a fluke and act accordingly in the future. The bottom line is Pedroia is a great baseball player and someone you want on your fantasy team.

David Golebiewski took a good look at Jonathan Broxton on Dec. 18, shortly after former closer Takashi Saito was non-tendered by the Dodgers. David concluded – and rightfully so – that Broxton was a no-brainer option to fill the closer’s shoes.

That said, there may be another option in Los Angeles – one who is equally qualified statistically speaking – if he can stay healthy. Hong-Chih Kuo was just as dominating as Broxton in 2008, but he missed more time due to injuries (an on-going theme in his career), including a sore elbow and possible (but unconfirmed) blood clots.

In 2008, Broxton allowed 54 hits in 69 innings, as well as rates of 3.52 BB/9 and 11.48 K/9. He allowed just two home runs, for a measly 0.26 HR/9 rate and stranded 67.7% of base runners. His GB% on batted balls was 44.5%, while his line-drive rate was 23.2.

When facing batters, Broxton pumped in first-pitch strikes 59.7% of the time. When hitters took a swing, they made contact with his pitches at a rate of 71.2%. The right-hander’s biggest nemesis was the left-handed batter. Against left-handers, Broxton allowed a .270 batting average, compared to .181 against right-handers.

Interestingly, in save situations, Broxton had a 4.25 ERA, and allowed batters to hit .234. In non-save situations, he had a 1.91 ERA and had a batting-average-allowed of .196. With runners in scoring position in all situations, Broxton allowed a line of .316/.402/.395.

In 2008, he featured a fastball that averaged out around 96 mph, as well as a slider, and a change-up that he used less than 3% of the time. Kuo, on the other hand, did not throw quite as hard at an average of 93 mph but he used it more than 80 percent of the time. He also showed a slider, curveball and occasional change-up.

Kuo allowed 60 hits in 80 innings pitched in 2008. He also posted rates of 2.36 BB/9 and 10.80 K/9. Kuo allowed just four home runs, good for a rate of 0.45 HR/9. He stranded runners at an impressive rate of 80.4%. He induced ground balls at a rate of 46.4% and gave up line drives at a rate of 19.9%.

While Kuo has better control than Broxton, the command is not always there and the Taiwanese lefty pumped in first-pitch strikes at a rate of 57.6%. Overall, batters managed to make contact against Kuo 74.4% of the time. He was equally successful against both left-handed and right-handed batters with averages-allowed of .202 and .205, respectively.

In save situations, Kuo had a 1.66 ERA and allowed a batting average of .177. In non-save situtions, batters hit .201 against him, while he posted an ERA of 1.70. With runners in scoring position, Kuo posted a line of .179/.247/.298.

Kuo’s season may have been even more impressive if he had stayed healthy. In the first half of the year, he allowed 38 hits in 53.1 innings of work and struck out 63 with 13 walks. In his injury-riddled second half, Kuo allowed 22 hits in 26.2 innings and struck out 33 with eight walks.

If Kuo can remain healthy in 2009 – and that is a big if – the Dodgers organization has a pair of dominating late-game relievers to choose from in save situations. Also on the plus side, the two pitchers can be used for lefty-righty match-ups if the situation warrants such a ploy. Without a doubt, though, opponents are going to have a rough time in 2009 when trailing the Dodgers by three runs or less in the eighth and ninth innings.

One of the great unknowns heading into the 2009 season is how fantasy players will treat reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. On the one hand, we have the top fantasy hurler in the National League, one who led the league in strikeouts, finished second in wins and ERA and eighth in WHIP. On the other hand, Lincecum led the majors in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points and he topped Tom Verducci’s magical line of an increase of 30 IP for a starter under 25.

There is enough of a backlash against strict adherence to pitch counts from all corners of baseball that Lincecum’s value would probably not be hurt by that alone. But when combined with his innings pitched increase of 49.2 from his combined majors + minors total in 2007, there are going to be more than a handful of people wary of investing too much in the Giants’ ace.

The Bill James projection system has Lincecum with another outstanding year in 2009, nearly matching his wins and WHIP from a year ago, showing a slight increase in strikeouts but a 0.40 drop in ERA. James even predicts 13 more innings pitched from Lincecum in 2009. But James is one of the critics of the Pitcher Abuse Points system.

The Marcel projection for Lincecum does not show him coming anywhere close to his 2008 numbers. But the Marcel projections are not particularly reliable for players with his experience in the majors.

Ultimately, each fantasy player will have to decide how much to weigh Lincecum’s obvious talents versus the systems that predict bad things for him based on how comparable pitchers have fared under his work load in the past.

However, it’s always nice to get an ace starter at a reduced cost.

With yesterday’s signing of free agent pitcher Carl Pavano, the Cleveland Indians may have finally cut ties with former No. 1 draft pick Michael Aubrey, who was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.

The soon-to-be 27-year-old prospect was drafted 11th overall out of Tulane University in 2003 and the Indians obviously had high hopes for the first baseman. His numbers during his final college season were eye-popping: .420/.505/.733 and he also had future Gold Glove written all over him for his work around the bag.

Six years later, Aubrey’s career has been derailed by constant injuries and he appeared in just 15 big league games with Cleveland and all of those came in 2008. This past season, Aubrey set a career high in games played with 112 – surpassing his previous high of 98 in 2004. He split the minor league season between Double-A and Triple-A, but spent the majority of the season at the senior level where he hit .281/.328/.418 with an ISO of .137 in 285 at-bats. During his brief Major League call-up, the left-handed hitter batted just .200 with five walks and five strikeouts.

Aubrey is not a slugging first baseman; he’s probably good for about 15 home runs a season. But he also does not strikeout much and he has the potential to hit for a decent average. Offensively, he could end up mirroring former Red Sox catcher/first baseman Scott Hatteberg, who played his first full Major League season at the age of 27 and went on to have a very nice 14-year career. And Hatteberg was not that great with the leather.

Even at 27, Aubrey is not a lost cause and he would definitely benefit from a change of scenery. He still has value and a team like the San Francisco Giants could benefit from his excellent glove, given the defensive question marks around the infield, especially at the hot corner. Aubrey could also potentially help out Florida and Seattle.

You certainly do not want to go out and nab Aubrey on draft day in your Fantasy Leagues, but he is another young name to add to your watch list, especially if he lands in one of the above mentioned organizations.

When Jason Giambi took his on-base skills and gargantuan power from the Bay to the Bronx after the 2001 season, he was the recipient of a mammoth seven-year, $120 million contract. But let’s be honest: it was strange to see this long-locked, tattooed fellow transform into a clean-cut, cordial Yankee.

While the mustachioed one managed to rage against the machine as much as grooming requirements allowed, his time with the Yankees was something of a mixed bag. Giambi posted a wOBA in excess of .400 in four of his seven seasons with the Yankees, but as the back loaded portion of his pact kicked in, his value to the club did not match up to the bloated salary commitment. Despite compiling a combined .383 wOBA over the 2006-2008 seasons, Giambi made $67.2 million while providing the Bombers with approximately $26.5 million in performance value.

Giambi made a whopping $23.4 million in 2008, but he’ll make less than a fifth of that sum after coming to terms with the A’s on a one-year, $4.5 million deal with a $5M option for the 2010 season. While Giambi’s salary had become cumbersome in recent years, he looks like an outright bargain at that price. The soon-to-be 38 year-old may no longer be the same guy who slugged near .650 over his last two seasons with Oakland in 2000 and 2001, but he can still provide some value to fantasy owners while invigorating a rapidly improving A’s lineup.

In 2008, Giambi rebounded from an injury-shortened 2007 campaign to post a .247/.373/.502 line, with a .377 wOBA in 565 PA. As always, the Giambino drew a boatload of walks (14.2 BB%) and still managed to put a pretty solid charge into the baseball (.255 ISO). That ISO figure tied Houston’s Lance Berkman for the 14th-best mark in the majors.

Interestingly, Giambi has actually become a little more of a free swinger as he has advanced in age. He’s still a very disciplined batsman, but Jason’s Outside-Swing% has climbed in each of the past four seasons, from an incredibly low 10.2% in 2005 to 19.2% in 2008, and he has increased his percentage of strikes swung at from 60.8% in ’05 to 63.2% in ’08. The increased number of swings seem to have had a slight negative effect on his walk rate. Still, when you’re “only” drawing a free pass 14-15% of the time, you’re doing quite well. Giambi tied former-Athletic-now-Yankee Nick Swisher for the 14th-best walk rate in the big leagues.

Granted, Giambi will be leaving a wonderful environment for left-handed power hitters (per the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium has a 3-year HR park factor of 120 for lefties) for less-inviting terrain: McAfee Coliseum’s HR park factor for southpaw batters over the past three years is exactly neutral, at 100. However, even accounting for the lefty-friendly dimensions of his home ballpark, Giambi’s offensive performance in 2008 was 21.5 runs above that of an average hitter. That ranked him just outside the top 10 among first baseman.

Giambi’s signing also has the likely consequence of sending one of the least productive first baseman in ’08, Daric Barton, back to the minors (Barton was -7.2 runs compared to an average batter). Though many question his power ceiling, there’s still reason to hope for better things from the 23 year-old down the line. A career .299/.411/.455 hitter in the minors, Barton is young enough to put his ugly start behind him and emerge as a solid cog for the A’s down the road. Still, the Athletics may be closer to contention than many realize, and the difference between Daric’s 2008 showing (0.4 WAR) and Giambi’s (2.6 WAR) was substantial.

Jason Giambi may no longer be the unstoppable force that annihilated American League pitching earlier in the decade, but he still possesses a patient and potent stick that should be of use to both the A’s and fantasy squads. In both real baseball and fantasy, position scarcity matters; it’s far easier to find a suitable player at a position like first base than it is to find, say, a good shortstop. Once the top-tier first baseman are gone, your best bet is to wait on a guy like Giambi.

In the first half of 2008, Ian Kinsler was in the discussion for the most valuable fantasy player, as he posted a .337-14-58-84-23 line. But in the second half of the season, two things happened to Kinsler that seem to happen pretty often. His production took a nosedive and he got hurt.

In 131 plate appearances after the break, Kinsler had a .258/.300/.417 line, which was 228 points of OPS lower than his total from the first half. In his three-year career in the majors, Kinsler has an .891 OPS before the All-Star break and a .755 mark afterwards. Many analysts dismiss splits, especially those involving pre and post All-Star break. But given that Kinsler has shown this for three straight years, perhaps it should be given some extra weight. The heat in Texas can do strange things to ballplayers.

That brings us to injuries. Kinsler’s 2008 season ended when he suffered a sports hernia. In 2007 he missed significant time due to a foot injury. And his rookie season was cut short thanks to a thumb injury. He has yet to play more than 130 games in a season.

Kinsler is in the discussion for top fantasy second baseman due to his power-speed combo. With the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley, he might even be the first player from the position drafted. Kinsler reported no lingering issues from the surgery and is expected healthy for the start of Spring Training.

But before you spend a high pick on Kinsler, remember that injury history. Some fantasy players will take Kinsler’s 2008 stats and pro-rate them over a full season. That’s a dangerous thing to do given his history. Even with the injury, Kinsler was a top 20 fantasy hitter last year. Expecting him to improve significantly on that seems extra risky, especially once you factor in last year’s .339 BABIP, which was 27 points above his career average.

After a week of inactivity, the free agent dominoes appear to be falling. On the heels of the Tampa Bay Rays inking Pat Burrell to a team-friendly deal, Milton Bradley has come to terms with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $30 million pact. The erstwhile Expo, Indian, Dodger, Athletic, Padre and Ranger will now patrol right field for the Cubbies.

Turning 31 in April, Bradley is coming off of a monstrous offensive campaign in 2008. In 510 PA, the switch-hitter pummeled opposing pitchers to the tune of a .321/.436/.563 line, with a .423 wOBA that ranked fourth among all hitters. Only Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones and Manny Ramirez provided more offensive value to their respective ballclubs. Despite the significant penalty incurred by designated hitters from position adjustments (-17.5 runs per 162 games), Bradley was worth 3.7 wins last season. That level of performance was worth nearly $17 million to the Rangers.

While Milton is a truly outstanding hitter who draws walks by the bushel and hits for power, we should expect some degree of regression from his lethal ’08 season- his .396 BABIP is not sustainable. Marcel projects Bradley to post a .384 wOBA in 479 PA in 2009. If Bradley were to meet that reasonable forecast, he would be worth a little more than 20 runs above average with the stick.

Of course, the equation is not that simple. With Bradley shifting back to the NL, he must now dust off his glove and play a position on a daily basis. Bradley has endured more than his fair share of injuries over the years, and manning the outfield only figures to exacerbate his lack of durability. Over the 2006 and 2007 seasons, he hit the DL for a sprained right knee, a strained left shoulder, a strained left hamstring (twice), a right calf strain and a strained oblique muscle. That doesn’t include the bizarre torn ACL that Bradley suffered disputing a call, either. He has topped the 500 PA mark just twice in his career: as a DH with the Rangers last season and with the Dodgers back in 2004.

Given Bradley’s extensive history of injury and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to play the outfield without triggering health problems, just what sort of deal did the North Siders get? Will Bradley’s powerful bat prove to be a bargain, or will Chicago develop buyer’s remorse?

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that Bradley averages about 400 PA and 100 games per season. Those are admittedly arbitrary numbers that could be argued, but it’s an attempt to account for the likelihood that Bradley will be unavailable for a decent chunk of time. If Bradley meets his Marcel projection of a .384 wOBA, he’d be worth about 17 runs above average offensively in 400 PA.

Calculating Milton’s defensive value is much less straightforward. He has been an above-average defender in the past, and has performed well in limited opportunities over the past two seasons. Let’s call Bradley a +5 run fielder. Pro-rating the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games for corner outfielders) and replacement level (+20 runs per 600 PA), Bradley projects to be worth about 31 runs above replacement, or 3.1 WAR.

It has become increasingly obvious that this is very much a buyer’s market for clubs, so let’s keep last year’s $4.5 million per WAR figure. Using that, Bradley projects to be worth about $14 million on a one-year deal. Even accounting for the likelihood that Bradley hits the shelf with an ailment or two, he projects to be worth considerably more than his salary for the 2009 season.

Accounting for a 10% discount rate for a longer deal (risk-averse players tend to sacrifice a little coin to risk-neutral clubs in long-term pacts), a fair three-year deal for Bradley would come out to about $37.8 million. If Milton can stay on the field a little less than two-thirds of the time with the Cubs, his performance should outpace his salary.

A three-year deal for a player with a DL record similar in length to “War and Peace” is risky. But, the Cubs appear to have accounted for the probability of Bradley missing significant time, and seemingly got his premium bat at something of a discount. There’s no reason to expect Bradley to play anything resembling a full season’s worth of games, but he’ll be productive enough when he’s in the lineup to satisfy both the Cubs and fantasy owners. Luckily, fantasy folk don’t have to make a multi-year commitment. Expect Milton to mash when he’s in the lineup-just have a decent backup plan in place for his inevitable DL stint.