Continuing our series of lucky/unlucky players, today we take a look at the other side of the coin: the players who benefited from great luck on their batted balls in play. In this series, I’ll refer you to Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton’s insightful article on the role of luck/skill on BABIP. In it they define BABIP with the following formula:

BABIP= (H-HR)/(PA-BB-HBP-HR-K)

They also formulate a new version of xBABIP that takes into account a number of components of the hitter and models the way their BIP should be converted to outs/hits.

Last year Ryan Theriot had his best season as a big-leaguer. He was at worst a decent play at SS in most fantasy formats, and a very good play in 5×5 formats. He hit for a good average, got steals, and played a pretty scarce position (with a lots of flexibility). His average on the year was .308, he got 22 steals, and scored 85 runs. Among SS he was second in average, 9th in runs scored, and 4th in SBs (his numbers aren’t quite as good compared to 2B/3B, but the flexibility is helpful). Looking at these numbers it’s hard to argue against Theriot as a average-to-above-average SS. The one hidden aspect of his success, though, is his reliance on luck to achieve his numbers.

Since Theriot doesn’t hit for much power (IsoP of only .052 with 1 HR), most of his value is derived from his ability to get on-base. Since he can’t drive himself in or steal first he has to walk or get a hit to get the steals and runs your fantasy team needs. Last year Theriot coupled a good BB-rate, relatively low K-rate, and extraordinary luck to get on base at a .387 clip. Where does the extraordinary luck come from? Well, Theriot had a BABIP of .330 and an xBABIP of .291. If we account for this “luck” and control his statistics for the hits he “earned,” then his statistical record has an astonishingly different look.

Rather than a slash-line of .307/.387/.359/.745, his slash line is a more pedestrian .266/.348/.309/.657. The loss of 24 hits or 24 trips to the base-paths hurts his two other good categories, as well. His R and SB drop from 85/22 to 77/20. This season wouldn’t make Cubs fans or Theriot’s owners (if he even has any at that point) very happy. I would expect something a lot closer to these numbers for Theriot next year than the numbers he put up this year.

Will the real Jered Weaver please stand up? Is he the consensus top talent available in the 2004 draft and the one who went a combined 17-3 between Triple-A and the majors in 2006, with 11 of those wins coming for the Angels? Or is he the slightly above league average pitcher he’s been the past two seasons, someone who can give you a decent ERA but not the innings you hope for from one of your top pitchers?

Weaver went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA for the Angels in 2006. But he had three numbers that suggested he was not nearly that good. First, his BABIP that year was .246, which would have been the second lowest mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. And second, his LOB% was 86.2 percent, which would have led the majors by a significant amount. Chris Young was the actual leader with an 80.7 percent strand rate. Finally, his FIP of 3.90 was 1.34 above his actual ERA.

And if that wasn’t enough, Weaver struggled with biceps and shoulder injuries in 2007. He did well to put up a 13-win, 3.91 ERA season. That gave hope that in 2008, with a full Spring Training under his belt, he could evolve into one of the top young starting pitchers in the game.

Instead, Weaver put up a disappointing season. But while his 2006 peripherals all pointed the wrong way, now Weaver has some markings which indicate he could be an undervalued commodity on Draft Day this year.

That LOB%, which was so out of the norm in 2006, has done a near 180-degree turn. Last year Weaver had a 70.7 strand rate, which was the 22nd-lowest mark in the majors. And his FIP was lower than his ERA by 0.43, which was the 14th-biggest discrepancy in MLB.

Weaver also regained strikeouts last year, as he averaged a K/9 of 7.74, up 1.31 from the previous year. His control is not as pinpoint as it was in 2006, but his K/BB ratio slotted him between Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy on the leaderboard, plenty good enough to be a number-two type starting pitcher.

One of the big problems with Weaver is that he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. His 0.71 GB/FB ratio was the second-lowest mark in the majors in 2008. He compensates for that somewhat by inducing a lot of infield pop-ups, which helps keep his home runs allowed at a reasonable rate.

According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Weaver earned $3.99 last year. That should be the lower end of his fantasy range in 2009. Mock Draft Central’s current ADP report does not show Weaver as one of the top 200 players, indicating there is not a lot of current demand for him. The combination of his skill set and room for improvement in luck makes Weaver an attractive late-game option.

Earlier this week, we tore through A-ball and illuminated the best and the brightest farm products in the Florida State, Carolina and California Leagues. Now, it’s time to take a step up the organizational ladder and begin our examination of some of the more promising batting prospects at the Double A Level. You’ll notice two additional bits of information added to the player profiles since our look at the California League: a Park Adjusted Line (PAL), which neutralizes a player’s stats, and a Major League Equivalency (MLE), which gives us a rough estimate of how that player projects to the big leagues at this point in time. Both figures are from Minor League Splits, an invaluable resource for prospect statistics. Let’s kick off the Double-A phase with the Texas League.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

1. Dexter Fowler, Rockies: .423 wOBA (.335/.431/.515)
Age: 22
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Tulsa): Runs (1.02), Hits (1.01), Doubles (1.05), Home Runs (1.08)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .333/.429/.504
Major League Equivalent (MLE): .260/.360/.379
Baseball America Texas League Ranking: 1st overall (1st hitter)

Long considered a five-tool force by the scouting community, Fowler managed to stay healthy and cobble together his best professional season in 2008. The switch-hitter was selected by Colorado in the 14th round of the 2004 draft- he would have gone much higher, but teams were scared off by scholarship offers to play basketball at Harvard and baseball at the University of Miami. The Rockies stepped up and inked Fowler for $925,000, and the above-slot bonus looks like a huge bargain at this point. After dealing with an ankle injury in 2006 and a broken hand in 2007, Fowler stayed on the field this past season and tapped into the power supply portended by his lanky 6-4, 175 pound frame. A plus center fielder, Fowler has impressive speed but hasn’t translated that to the base paths quite as well as one would like: he’s swiped 100 bags in his minor league career, but his 67.6% success rate needs some work. Just 22 and possessing a very professional approach at the plate (he drew a walk 13.4% of the time at Tulsa, and has a career .393 OBP), Fowler made a brief cameo in the majors in 2008 and is very close to becoming a key contributor for the Rockies.

2. Elvis Andrus, Rangers: .339 wOBA (.295/.350/.367)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frisco): R (0.99), H (0.99), 2B (0.95), HR (1.05)
PAL: .296/.351/.371
MLE: .235/.292/.290
BA Texas League Ranking: 5th overall (4th hitter)

As was the case with Seattle’s Carlos Triunfel, Andrus’ raw numbers don’t scream “future superstar.” However, one has to consider that the Venezuelan played essentially the entire 2008 season at the age of 19, yet managed to hold his own at the AA level. At a more age-appropriate level, it’s likely that Andrus would have experienced considerably greater success with the bat. The former Braves farmhand is not an especially large fellow and doesn’t project to hit for much power, but he has years of development time remaining. If he ends up providing league-average offense at the shortstop position and couples that with continued base running prowess (he stole 54 bags with a 77% success rate in ’08), then Andrus should be a pretty valuable player. On top of that, he might end up bumping curious Gold Glove selection Michael Young off of shortstop. While Young has improved from atrocious (he was over -20 runs per 150 defensive games in 2004 and 2005) to just below-average with the leather, it would probably be for the best if he shifted to the hot corner. For more on Andrus, see new Rotographs writer Ryan Glass’ piece on the young Ranger here.

3. Kyle Blanks, Padres: .408 wOBA (.325/.404/.514)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (San Antonio): R (0.93), H (0.99), 2B (1.00), HR (0.84)
PAL: .331/.408/.535
MLE: .261/.338/.399
BA Texas League Ranking: 3rd overall (3rd hitter)

Blanks is an extremely large human being. Standing 6-6 and tipping the scales at 280 pounds, Blanks was snagged as a draft-and-follow selection in the 42nd round of the 2004 draft. With a career .393 OBP, Blanks has proven that he knows how to work the count, and he has put a charge into the ball over the past two seasons by reaching or surpassing the 20 home run mark. Blanks smashed 24 homers and slugged .540 in the California League last season, but his 20 homer, .514 slugging season in 2008 was likely more impressive, once one considers that he moved up a level and played his games in a less hospitable offensive environment. Just where Blanks fits in with the Padres remains to be seen. He’s not the sluggish athlete that his XL frame suggests, but it seems unlikely that he could handle a corner outfield spot. And while the Padres are thin on premium talent, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is a tremendous player signed to an incredibly team-friendly pact (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Gonzalez will make $3M in ’09, $4.75M in 2010 and has an obvious $5.5M club option for the 2011 season). Whether the Fathers keep Gonzalez under those friendly terms or leverage that deal in a trade is uncertain. But Blanks should be a solid contributor in the majors sometime soon, be it with San Diego or elsewhere.

4. Maximiliano Ramirez, Rangers: .474 wOBA (.354/.450/.646)
Age: 24 (23 during ’08 season)
Position: C? 1B? DH?
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frisco): R (0.99), H (0.99), 2B (0.95), HR (1.05)
PAL: .354/.450/.638
MLE: .277/.377/.465
BA Texas League Ranking: 9th overall (6th hitter)

It’s pretty rare for a career .314/.414/.521 minor league hitter to exchange hands twice before he really even gets his feet wet at the major league level, but that’s precisely what has happened to Max Ramirez. Originally signed by the Braves out of Venezuela, Ramirez was shipped to the Indians in July of 2006 for “Proven Closer” Bob Wickman, then found himself switching zip codes again the next summer when the Indians sent him to Texas for Kenny Lofton. Ramirez’s long-term position remains a mystery (catcher seems exceedingly unlikely, given his scouting reports and the presence of Taylor Teagarden in Texas), but Max should mash wherever he ends up. He terrorized the TL on his way to Arlington, posting a .292 ISO and leading the circuit in wOBA.

5. Aaron Cunningham, Athletics: .397 wOBA (.317/.386/.507)
Age: 22
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Midland): R (1.02), H (1.02), 2B (1.04), HR (0.91)
PAL: .316/.385/.514
MLE: .249/.320/.384
BA Texas League Ranking: 11th overall (7th hitter)

Like Ramirez, Cunningham has also switched organizations twice before really getting acclimated to the big league level. The White Sox originally plucked the Everett Community College alum in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but the Pale Hose made a rare prospect-for-prospect swap with the Diamondbacks in June of 2007, exchanging Cunningham for second baseman Danny Richar. Cunningham would again change uniforms in December of ’07, as he was part of a massive prospect haul acquired by the Athletics in the Dan Haren swap. Cunningham turned in a pretty solid season in the Texas League, posting a .190 ISO and drawing a free pass about 10% of the time. His strikeout rate did climb to 26.5%, however. The 5-11, 195 pounder does not look like a future star, but he should provide solid production for the A’s in a corner spot sometime in the near future.

Elvis Andrus is the 20-year-old phenom coming for Michael Young’s job. Last year, Andrus was a 19-year-old holding his own in AA. He hit .295 with 54 stolen bases. The rest of his game, though, was pretty incomplete. At the dish, Andrus only walked 7.3% of the time and showed very little pop (IsoP of only .073). With the glove Elvis did not fare much better. While he has shown extraordinary range, he has not proven to be very sure-handed. He had 32 errors in 109 games which is right in line with his career .944 fielding percentage.

So with these facts in mind, why is the Rangers front-office planning on moving the very expensive Young to 3B? It seems they are trying to make room for Andrus, but the question of whether or not he’s ready is a good one. I would expect that the Rangers will employ a stopgap option at SS while they wait to see how Andrus does in the minors this year. Asking Young to move was likely similar to what the Rays did last year with Iwamura and Longoria; they did not expect Longoria to come to the Bigs so early and planned on using a stopgap at third. If Andrus does come up next year, then what can we expect?

Looking at Andrus’s MLEs, you see a slash-line of .235/.292/.290/.582 for his performance last year. This is very unimpressive. His projections are not all that pretty either. The big-ticket issue with Andrus, though, is his steals and position eligibility. If you can get 30-40 steals from a cheap SS without him killing you in other categories, then you are in business. Another thing that makes him a little more attractive is his home ballpark: Arlington. If we can bump his rate-stats up some for that then he could be useful. These MLEs also go off of a BABIP of .289. It would not be surprising to see him with a BABIP much higher considering his speed and line-drive hitting ability.

All in all, Elvis Andrus probably isn’t someone you want to draft unless you play in a pretty deep league. The best idea (and what I plan on doing) may be to keep a close eye on his minor-league box scores, the newspapers in TX, and whatever the SS for the big-squad is doing. Be poised and ready to make a waiver-request because a .290/.330/.320 line at SS with a lot of steals may just be sitting there at the All-Star Break. A less-enthusiastic projection could even see him as the SS version of Willy Taveras.

Considering most people look primarily at the previous year’s statistics when drafting a player, one place to gain an edge on the competition is to attempt to put last year’s statistics in context. By this, I do not necessarily mean the run-scoring environment the player played in, but rather why their statistics seemed to vary from their usual numbers. To do this, I will start with a series of good luck and bad luck players. The luck comes in the way their batted balls in play are turned into outs or hits. Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton did some great research on defining how we should look at BABIP and what drives it.

Over the next week or so, I’ll go through some players that were on the extreme ends of the luck spectrum with the idea that those players who were very lucky last year will probably come back to earth and those that were unlucky are due to breakout. This can be very helpful when deciding to draft one player or another. The first player in the series is Ryan Howard.

Last year, Ryan Howard had arguably his least productive year as a Phillies player (don’t tell the BBWAA). His BA was a down to a career-low of .251. His OPS was also the lowest of his career at .881. He maintained his ability to hit for power and drive in runs (48 HR and 146 RBI), but his average made him a slightly better version of Adam Dunn to fantasy players. He usually more closely resembled a top 10 fantasy player.

Looking at his new xBABIP and his BABIP we see where some of his batting average was lost. He seemed to be incredibly unlucky on balls put into play.

His BABIP of .289 was .019 below his new xBABIP of .308. He was robbed of roughly 7 hits, and his average should have been closer to .262. While this difference doesn’t seem all that great, it really is. Every single has a large effect on OPS as they are double-counted in the formula because your OBP is increased by one more time reaching base and SLG increases by one more additional base gained. The SLG is even more affected by these missed hits because if they turn into 2B or 3B (pretty unlikely with Howard) they could add 2 or 3 bases.

In Howard’s case, if you add these 7 hits broken down the way his hits were over the season his OPS goes up to .906. His slash line would increase to .262/.349/.557. He might have also seen an increase in his league-leading RBI totals. If you play in almost any league Ryan Howard is a good player to have on your fantasy team. He may be able to had for a more reasonable price than in years past because of his “down year” last year.

Michael Young has requested a trade from the Texas Rangers. This is not good news for Fantasy owners who have Mr. Young on their rosters. A move from the Ballpark in Arlington would certainly affect his numbers. Young hit .305/.362/.441 at home in 2008 – and just .264/.317/.364 on the road. In his career, his splits are: .322/.369/.480 at home, and .279/.323/.404 on the road.

The option of staying in Texas, though, may not be too appetizing either. The shortstop, who had his string of five 200+ hits seasons broken in 2008, has been asked (told?) by Texas to move to third base for the 2009 season in preparation for top prospect (and shortstop) Elvis Andrus. Young – who came up in the Jays system as a shortstop – previously moved from second base to shortstop at the Major League level to help fill the void left by Alex Rodriguez‘ departure from Texas.

Despite his .300 career batting average, Young does not have the power potential traditionally required at the hot corner. His career slugging percentage is .442 but it has been at .418 and .402 in the last two seasons. Young’s ISO has gone from .145 in 2006 to .103 in 2007 to .118 last season. Andrus, with a .073 ISO in 2008 at Double-A, will not help make up for lost power.

Defensively, the move may be wise. Considered a plus defender at shortstop in the minors, Young’s defence was overrated. He has steady hands and converts what he gets to, but his range is below average. At third base, he would have less ground to cover. In the last two seasons, Young has posted UZR rates of -10.1 and -3.9.

Young is also beginning the first year of an ill-advised, five-year contract that will pay him about $62 million (It was originally $80 million but some was handed out as a signing bonus, and some is deferred) despite the fact his overall value as a player – both offensively and defensively – is diminishing. That will make it very difficult for Texas to adhere to the shortstop’s wish for a trade – unless the organization eats a large portion of the contract.

After uncovering some of the better young batsmen in the Florida State League and the Carolina League, let’s now shine the spotlight on the California League. While some of the numbers that you’ll see on this list will look downright wacky, it is important to keep in mind that the California League is the domain of offensive explosions. In particular, High Desert (Mariners) and Lancaster (Red Sox) are known for giving pitchers nightmares. With that said, let’s take a look at the top 5 in the California League, starting off with an astute trade pickup.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

California League

Singles (1.13), Doubles (1.04), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (1.04)

1. Carlos Santana, Indians: .429 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: C
Baseball America California League Ranking: 2nd overall (1st hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Inland Empire): Runs (0.93), Singles (0.98), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (0.79)

Over the past several years, perhaps no organization in the game has done a better job of swapping veteran role players for under-the-radar prospects than the Cleveland Indians. Be it shipping off Eduardo Perez for Asdrubal Cabrera and Ben Broussard for Shin-Soo Choo (thanks, Mr. Bavasi) or acquiring a prime talent like Santana from the Dodgers last summer for 36 year-old Casey Blake, the Tribe keep displaying a knack for uncovering hidden gems. The switch-hitting Santana may be the club’s best get yet: the converted outfielder put together a monster season for Inland Empire (LA’s affiliate) before the trade, batting a robust .323/.431/.563 with nearly even strikeout and walk ratios (16.5 BB%, 16.9 K%). The Dominican Republic native kept up his torrid pace upon transitioning to Cleveland’s Carolina League affiliate (Kinston), where he posted a .466 wOBA in 126 PA (Santana did not have the requisite 200 PA to qualify for the Carolina League list). As one might expect from a guy with so little experience behind the dish, Santana is still learning the nuances of the catching position. However, Baseball America notes that Santana possesses “good agility and athleticism”, and few doubt his ability to stick behind the plate.

2. Lars Anderson, Red Sox: .408 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
BA California League Ranking: 3rd overall (2nd hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Lancaster): R (1.14), H (1.08), 2B (1.04), HR (1.21)

As a lefty-swinging first baseman with good plate discipline, Anderson seems to have a good bit in common with the FSL’s top batting prospect, Logan Morrison. Boston coaxed Anderson to sign on the dotted line for $825,000 as an 18th-round selection in the 2006 draft, and the California native has impressed ever since. Sure, he did play in an absolute bandbox (for the aptly-named Jet Hawks), but it’s still pretty rare to find a 20 year-old with such a refined approach at the plate: Anderson drew walks at a 13.1% clip. Even better, Lars upped his wOBA to .430 and improved his ISO from .196 to .211 upon moving up to Portland of the AA Eastern League.

3. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: .437 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: C? 3B? 1B?
BA California League Ranking: 7th overall (3rd hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (San Jose): R (0.89), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (0.87)

The switch-hitting, ambidextrous Sandoval ripped through the California League on his way to San Francisco, batting .359/.412/.597 in 301 PA. While a .387 BABIP surely aided Sandoval, he did display an interesting blend of contact ability (14.3 K%) and power, posting a .238 ISO. He continued his hot hitting and hacking in AA and in the big leagues, but he still needs quite a bit of work in terms of working the count: in 154 PA for the Giants, Sandoval swung at a mind-bending 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The 5-11, 245 pounder has experience behind the plate and at the infield corners, but it remains to be seen just where he ultimately settles in. He’s potentially very interesting if he can stick behind the plate, though FSU star and 2008 first-rounder Buster Posey seems to be San Francisco’s heir apparent behind the dish.

4. Carlos Triunfel, Mariners: .338 wOBA
Age: 19 (18 during ’08 season)
Position: SS (likely 3B later)
BA California League Ranking: 15th (9th hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (High Desert): R (1.13), H (1.05), 2B (1.03), HR (1.23)

Wait a minute, a .338 wOBA? In a great hitter’s park? What’s he doing on this list? Admittedly, this selection might be a slight reach, but color me impressed that a player like Triunfel can hold his head above water in High-A ball at an age where most Americans are still in high school. There’s nothing eye-popping about his numbers, but how many Aflac All-Americans or Area Code Games stars could you stick in advanced A-ball and get a .287/.336/.406 line from? Triunfel will likely have to move off of shortstop down the line, and his rocket arm fits in just fine at third base. It’s far too early to suggest just what sort of player the Dominican Republic native will become, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on. Triunfel is an example of why context is so important with regards to minor league stats: plenty of guys have better raw numbers, but most of them are three or four years older and have had far more developmental time to hone their skills.

5. Josh Reddick, Red Sox: .422 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: RF
BA California League Ranking: 8th overall (4th hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Lancaster): R (1.14), H (1.08), 2B (1.04), HR (1.21)

Reddick also had the good fortune of playing his home games in Lancaster’s wind-aided environs, but he did post a .343/.375/.593 line with a .250 ISO. Taken one round before Lars Anderson in the ’06 draft, Reddick has some juice in his left-handed swing, but he’s going to have to do a better job of working the count as he moves up the organizational ladder: he drew a walk just 5.2% of the time at Lancaster. There’s some hope on that front, though, as Reddick upped that figure to 9.3% upon reaching AA Portland.

After taking a gander at the best and brightest hitters that the pitcher-friendly Florida State League had to offer, let’s now shift our focus to the Carolina League. If you missed part one, I would suggest taking a look at the method used and the reasoning behind it. What we’re trying to do here is to see whose performance was the most impressive once important factors such as age, position and league and park offensive levels are accounted for. I should also note that I am using 200 PA as a cut-off for consideration- I used only qualified batters for the FSL, but I feel that might not have done justice to guys like Daryl Jones (Cardinals), Adrian Cardenas (Athletics, formerly Phillies) and J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays), who missed the cut.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

Carolina League

2008 league offensive levels: Singles (0.83), Doubles (1.08), Triples (0.99), Home Runs (1.01)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .445 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frederick): Runs (1.05), Hits (1.02), Doubles (0.97), Home Runs (1.28)

Like there was any doubt about this one. Frederick is a great power park, but Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks (16.1 BB%). He can drive the ball as far as anyone (.231 ISO). Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.

2. Tyler Flowers, White Sox: .412 wOBA
Age: 23 in January
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Myrtle Beach): R (0.98), H (1.00), 2B (0.94), HR (0.98)

Flowers enjoyed an outstanding campaign at Myrtle Beach in the Braves organization in 2008, but he was shipped to the south side of Chicago as the principal prospect acquired by the White Sox in the Javier Vazquez trade. A mountain of a man at 6-4, 245 pounds, Flowers has a discerning eye at the plate. A 33rd-round draft-and-follow selection in the 2005 draft, Flowers has a career .400 OBP and he drew walks at a Bondsian 19.2% clip in 2008. The Chipola Junior College product complements that judicious approach with plenty of raw power (.206 ISO). While Flowers whiffs a bit more than one would like (24.7 K%), there’s little reason to doubt his offensive profile. The reviews of his work behind the dish are a bit more sketchy, however.

Flowers would be one of the largest catchers ever- using Baseball Reference’s Play Index Tool, I found that that Pete Varney (himself a White Sox backstop) and Ronny Paulino are the only players at least 6-3 and 235 pounds (an inch and 10 pounds lighter than Flowers) to have seasons in which they played at least 50% of their games at catcher. That’s not to say Flowers couldn’t (Wieters is similarly huge, though he comes with a better defensive rep), but there’s not much precedent for it. If Flowers can continue to don the tools if ignorance, he would be an immensely valuable player for the Pale Hose. If not, his bat will still certainly play at first base or DH. He just wouldn’t be quite as interesting.

3. Nicholas Weglarz, Indians: .377 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position OF (1B also possible)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Kinston): R (0.99), H (0.97), 2B (0.95), HR (1.08)

This big Canadian southpaw showcased a very mature approach at the plate for a guy who played the entire season at age 20. Drawing free passes at a 15.9% clip, Weglarz posted a .396 OBP. While the 3rd-round selection in the 2005 draft has yet to really tap into his power game (his career SLG% is .448), his 6-3, 215 pound frame portends to more pop, and Baseball America notes that Weglarz “generates excellent loft, bat speed and leverage with his swing and shows plus-plus power potential.” Weglarz is no great shakes in the outfield, and might eventually have to shift to first base, but his bat should play there (Cleveland could have quite the log jam at the position, with Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta and Wes Hodges all possible first base candidates as well). The Ontario native also made some major strides in making more contact: after striking out nearly 30% of the time in 2007, he pared that figure down to 20.8% in 2008.

4. Brandon Allen, White Sox: .402 wOBA
Age: 23 in January
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Winston Salem): R (1.05), H (1.03), 2B (1.06), HR (1.06)

We fall down the defensive spectrum pretty quickly in the Carolina League, shifting from two catchers to a defensively-challenged outfielder, and now a first baseman. Allen’s career had been a mixed big prior to 2008, as the lefty-hitting Texas native showcased power but little plate discipline. That began to change this season: the 6-2, 235 pounder still pummeled the ball (.248 ISO), but he coupled that force with more restraint, as his walk rate rose to 11.4%. Allen continued to impress upon a promotion to AA, posting a .425 wOBA. He has some contact issues (26 K%) and he’ll have to continue to mash to be of high value, but Allen looks like the heir apparent to Paul Konerko in Chicago.

5. Beau Mills, Indians: .388 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Kinston): R (0.99), H (0.97), 2B (0.95), HR (1.08)

Son of Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills, Beau was selected 13th overall in the 2007 draft out of Lewis Clark State. He began his collegiate career at Fresno State, but transferred after having a falling out with the school. Mills had a mild debut in 2007, but he pieced together a pretty solid campaign at Kinston in 2008, batting .293/.373/.506. He began his career as a third baseman, but his below-average range and lateral agility necessitated a move across the diamond to first base.

As you may have seen, David Appelman added yet another interesting feature to this site earlier this week: wOBA for minor league hitters. As you probably know by now, wOBA is a linear weight formula that gives a specific run value to each offensive event, and is scaled to look like on-base percentage. If you know what a good OBP looks like, you know what a good wOBA looks like. With wOBA now available for minor leaguers, we can get a better idea of who had the most impressive offensive campaigns in each league.

Of course, we have to consider context. It would be a fruitless endeavor to simply list the top wOBA performers from each league without considering a number of important factors. Was the player at an age-appropriate level? What is the offensive environment of his home ballpark like? How about the league- does it favor hitting or pitching? For instance, erstwhile Cubs prospect Brian Dopirak (now Blue Jays property) paced the High-A Florida State League in wOBA. However, he did so as a 24 year-old first baseman in one of the few hitter-friendly venues in the FSL. Is that an impressive performance, or simply an older player taking advantage of pitchers several years his junior? With minor league numbers, context is everything.

Using our new minor league wOBA tool and considering the questions listed above, I am going to attempt to single out the very best minor league performers at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels, ranking the top 5 batting prospects in each league. To weed out the true prospects from the fool’s gold, I’m going to consider not only wOBA, but age as well as park and league offensive levels. We want to know not just who performed the best, but whose performance portends to future success at the major league level. Let’s kick things off with the High-A Florida State league.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

Florida State League

2008 league offensive levels: Singles (1.01), Doubles (0.89), Triples (1.00), Home Runs (0.96)

1. Logan Morrison, Marlins: .406 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Jupiter): Runs (0.96), Hits (0.98), Doubles (0.98), HR (0.83)

Playing the 2008 season at the age of 20 (he turned 21 in late August), Morrison put up some highly impressive numbers. Showing a steady eye at the plate (10.5 BB%) and a moderate K rate (16.4%), Morrison posted an OBP in excess of .400. A product of the now defunct draft-and follow system in 2005, the lefty didn’t appear to put a huge charge into the ball at first glance (.162 ISO), but Jupiter has done quite a number on home runs over the past three seasons.

2. Wilson Ramos,Twins: .356 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Fort Myers): R (0.96), H (0.98), 2B (0.95), HR (0.91)

Ramos’ wOBA might not be as high as some of the other players you’ll see on the list, but he earns additional credit for two reasons. One, like Morrison, Ramos played basically the entire ’08 season as a 20 year-old. Two, he plays a premium position, and plays it well by most accounts. According to Baseball America, Ramos threw out 43 percent of would-be base stealers in the FSL. The Venezuelan’s .288/.346/.434 line and adequate control of the strike zone (7.6 BB%, 22.8 K%) might not stand out at first glance, but he seems very likely to stick behind the dish while providing above-average offensive relative to his position. That Mauer guy precludes Ramos getting a shot in Minnesota, but don’t be surprised to hear Ramos’ name come up in trade talks.

3. Todd Frazier, Reds: .368 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: Infielder (likely 3B or LF down the line)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sarasota): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.06), HR (0.93)

This Rutgers product is a man without a position- at 6-3, 215 pounds and “lacking first step quickness” according to BA, Frazier has next to no shot to remain at shortstop. While his glovework is somewhat lacking, Frazier turned in a solid .281/.357/.451 line at Sarasota. Perhaps the 2007 supplemental 1st-round pick will shift incumbent third baseman Edwin Encarnacion to the outfield- Encarnacion’s career UZR/150 at the hot corner is a gruesome -11.5.

4. Juan Francisco, Reds: .353 wOBA
Age: 21
Position: 3B (with a shift to 1B possible)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sarasota): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.06), HR (0.93)

The lefty-swinging Francisco has a ton of power in his ample 6-2 frame, as evidenced by his lofty .219 ISO. However, the Dominican Republic native has yet to get a grasp on the strike zone, to say the least: Francisco walked just 3.6% of the time, while striking out in 23.8% of his at-bats. Francisco’s youth and pop make him intriguing, but he’s going to have to do serious work in improving his plate discipline to be ready for the big leagues.

T-5. Taylor Green, Brewers: .376 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Brevard County): R (0.98), H (1.00), 2B (0.96), HR (0.98)

Green could have been Indians property as the player-to-be-named in the CC Sabathia trade, but the tribe selected outfielder Michael Brantley instead. Might Cleveland regret that selection? A lefty-swinging draft-and-follow pick from the 2005 draft, Green has fine strike zone discipline (12.7 BB%) and puts the bat on the ball often (14.1 K%), but questions remain about his ability to stick at third base and his power production. Brantley also shows tremendous control of the zone, as well as the drawbacks of limited leather and little pop. If everything breaks right for Green, perhaps he’s the next Bill Mueller.

T-5. Bradley Emaus, Blue Jays: .387 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: 2B/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Dundein): R (1.04), H (1.03), 2B (1.06), HR (1.10)

An 11th-round selection out of Tulane in the 2007 draft, Emaus displayed an interesting blend of power (.161 ISO), patience (11.3 BB%) and contact ability (11.8 K%) at Dundein. After failing to crack BA’s top 30 Blue Jays prospects before the 2008 season, Emaus improved his standing enough to rank 10th in the organization this offseason. His stocky build (5-11, 200) and lack of a definite position (he shifted from the hot corner to the keystone in ’08) bring to mind a Ty Wigginton-type player.

Check back in tomorrow to see the best that the Carolina League has to offer.

It was a rough couple of years in 2006 and 2007 for Aubrey Huff. In ’06, he continued his downward trend from his 30-HR, 100-RBI peak and ended up with just 21 HR and 66 RBIs while splitting time with Tampa Bay and Houston. Then he signed a three-year deal with the Orioles and saw his HR output drop to 15. Perhaps rock bottom occurred when following the 2007 season he appeared on the Bubba the Love Sponge radio show and trashed the city of Baltimore.

But then everything went right for Huff in 2008. A notoriously slow starter, he didn’t bury himself early and then went on a hot streak that lasted from the end of May through mid-September. Overall he finished with a .304-32-108-96-4 line, which made him a top-25 fantasy hitter.

So, how did he do it? Huff’s BB% and K% were right around career averages and his BABIP of .314 was not out of line with previous efforts (it was .310 the year before). He traded some ground balls for fly balls and line drives and established a career-best 41.7 percent fly ball rate. His HR/FB rate rebounded to 14.9 percent, up over six points from 2007 but just 0.6 percent above his lifetime average.

This means we have a once-solid hitter returning to previous levels. Huff seems like he has been around forever, but he turned 32 in the off-season. Is it reasonable to expect him to repeat his 2008 performance? How do others see him so far this year?

In the January 5th ADP report from Mock Draft Central, Huff checks in at number 83, considerably below his 2008 final rankings. He is behind Carlos Pena (67) and Derrek Lee (50) among others.

The nice thing about Huff is that he gives you flexibility, having played enough to qualify at both 1B (24) and 3B (33) in most leagues. That makes him more valuable than either Pena or Lee if they put up similar numbers.

Every major mark that Huff put up last year was in line with previous production, other than his FB%. And even if that regresses completely back to his career average, it still leaves him as a 28-HR player if he repeats the rest of his 2008 numbers. That would still leave him as a top-50 fantasy hitter.

Right now it appears that Huff is being undervalued in fantasy drafts.