So…when exactly is Rickie Weeks going to break out?

Weeks has a tremendous amount of tools and has shown flashes of brilliance during his time in the majors. However, Weeks doesn’t appear to be improving.

Weeks hit .234/.342/.398 this year, following up a 2007 in which he hit .235/.374/.433. He also added 14 homers and 19 steals (in 24 attempts).

The low batting average is a source of frustration to many fantasy owners. Both last year and this year, Weeks suffered from a bit of bad luck: according to my new-fangled BABIP model, Weeks’s expected BABIPs over the last two years have been .321 and .294, while his actual BABIPs have been .289 and .280, respectively. However, in 2006, his actual BABIP exceeded his xBABIP, so there’s no reason to think that the system is underrating Weeks.

However, even adjusting for his lost hits doesn’t bring Weeks’ batting average much above .250. He did manage to lower his strikeout rate this year – he struck out in 24.2% of his at bats this year, as compared to 28.4% last year, but the reason for this appears to be simply that he was making contact with more bad pitches, rather than becoming more choosy at the plate. He actually increased the number of pitches out of the strike zone that he swung at in 2008. Opposing pitchers took advantage of this by throwing Weeks a steady diet of offspeed pitches – just over 44% of the pitches Weeks saw were offspeed.

Although he possesses good raw power, Weeks has still not translated that power into large numbers of home runs. Part of the problem is that he hits many of his balls in play on the ground – only 38.7% of his balls in play were fly balls this year. This, combined with a high number of strikeouts, limits the amount of balls that have the chance to leave the park.

Finally, Weeks is getting to the point where he’s not young anymore. He turned 26 last September, and has yet to make good on his considerable talent. The raw talent is still there, but the chances of him capitalizing on that grow slimmer every year. He still has the chance to become an elite offensive second basemen, but there is no statistical evidence that he’s improving. Draft Weeks expecting similar numbers next season – perhaps a few more homers and a slightly higher batting average. There is a non-zero chance that Weeks could break out, but the chances are not great.

Ty Wigginton was once the centerpiece of the trade that sent Kris Benson from Pittsburgh Pirates to the New York Mets. The Pirates cut ties with Wigginton only a season and a half later, leaving Wigginton to take a non-roster invite with Tampa Bay. Wigginton would spend a season and a half in St. Petersburg before again packing his bags, this time heading to Houston for reliever Dan Wheeler. Wigginton’s rate stats picked up in the final 50 games of 2007, hitting .284/.342/.462, little did we know that was a sign of things to come.

Wigginton would continue slaughtering National League pitching in 2008, hitting .285/.350/.526 with 23 homeruns and a rather modest 58 runs batted in. Is Wigginton’s .876 legitimate, or was some luck to credit for his breakout? Well, as it turns out, a bit of both. Wigginton’s .296 batting average on balls in play is hardly outrageous, and even with consideration given to Wigginton’s 16.3 line drive percentage, a recent career low. Wigginton’s 23 homeruns seem fine as well; after all, he hit 22 in 2007 and 24 in 2006. Herein sits the snake in the bushes: Wigginton recorded only 386 at-bats in 2008, more than 160 less than he did in 2007, and 58 less than in 2006.

A small fracture in Wigginton’s left thumb cost him playing time from mid-April through early May. That means less balls in play, and since only 38.8% of Wigginton’s balls in play were of the “fly” variety, and 11.3% of those did not leave the infield, Wigginton’s 18.5% HR/FB is quite a bit more than you should expect heading forward, especially with Wigginton’s career total being 13.5%. Odds are, Wigginton will be closer to his career percentage than 2008.

Marcels anticipates some regression from the 31-year-old, with a projected line of .273/.333/.473 and 20 homeruns. That’s not too bad, with Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mike Lowell falling behind in projected OPS from the hot corner. Perhaps the only question remaining is whether Wigginton will remain in Houston, or jack 20 homeruns elsewhere come springtime.

Giants outfielder Fred Lewis got his first chance at everyday playing time in 2008, but he traveled a long, winding road to get that shot. Originally drafted by the Montreal Expos out of Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College in 2000, Lewis opted not to sign and instead attended Southern University. The Giants came calling in 2002, popping Lewis in the second round (66th overall).

Matt Lawton’s cousin showed excellent on-base skills in the minors (career .381 OBP, 15.1 BB%). He also ranked among Baseball America’s top 10 organizational prospects from 2003-2007 in what was then a rather barren Giants farm system. Still, some felt that Lewis was more fourth outfielder than future regular. BA noted that Lewis was “still more about potential than production”, as he was prone to strikeouts and didn’t harness his raw speed on the base paths or in the outfield.

In 2007, Lewis’ official position on the Giants was “Barry Bonds‘ legs.” As a late-inning defensive replacement who snuck in the occasional at-bat, Lewis compiled a .287/.374/.408 line in 180 PA, drawing walks at a 10.8% rate and striking out 20.4% of the time. “Bonds’ Legs” also managed to become one of the more anonymous players to hit for the cycle, accomplishing the feat on May 13th at Coors Field.

Once that Bonds guy not-so-willingly retired, Lewis inherited plenty of playing time and made the most of it. A first-time regular at the age of 27, Lewis batted .282/.351/.440 in 521 PA. He continued to show a pretty sharp eye, drawing walks at a 9.8% clip while rarely straying from the strike zone. Lewis’ Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) was just 18.9%, ranking as the 19th-lowest total among all qualified hitters. Lewis also swiped 21 bags and took full advantage of AT&T Park’s “Triples Alley”, collecting nine three-baggers on the season (fun fact: AT&T increased triples production by 32% between 2006-2008, per The Bill James Handbook).

The 6-2, 198 pounder batted .282 this past season, but that number seems likely to regress somewhat. Lewis often swung and missed at the minor league level (24.5 K%), and that tendency continued in 2008 (26.5 K%). His BABIP was also pretty high at .367. While that total figures to drop somewhat too, Lewis might have the sort of speedy profile to sustain a BABIP higher than what his LD% alone would indicate. In addition to the 20+ steals, Lewis was a +13 base runner overall, per Bill James’ Base Running Net Gain statistic (discussed in more detail here). Lewis likely has the wheels to make those worm killers (career 54.4 GB%) count.

It took him a while to get an opportunity, but Fred Lewis looks like a solid major league player. With a patient approach, the ability to swipe some bags and moderate pop (.158 ISO), Lewis could be an asset to both the Giants and fantasy owners over the next few seasons.

Ladies and gentleman: ready your pitchforks. Light your torches. Today, I am going to commit baseball sacrilege. I come not to bury the Yankee Captain, but I must point out that in many respects, Derek Jeter’s 2008 campaign was the worst of his career.

This past season, Jeter posted just a 0.26 WPA/LI, the lowest full-season mark of his distinguished career and a middling 8th among 17 qualified shortstops. Jeter’s .408 slugging percentage, .107 Isolated Power (ISO) and .343 wOBA were also career lows.

Since an outstanding 2006 season (.343/.417/.483), Jeter’s production has taken a sizeable hit in each of the past two years. Using the same formula to convert wOBA into runs above average that we employed while examining Miguel Cabrera, it becomes apparent that the 1992 first-rounder has been hemorrhaging offensive value:

2006

Jeter’s wOBA: .399
AL LG wOBA: .339

37.3 Runs Above Average

2007

Jeter’s wOBA: .369
AL LG wOBA: .338

19.25 Runs Above Average

2008

Jeter’s wOBA: .343
AL LG wOBA: .335

4.65 Runs Above Average

Granted, 2006 was one of Jeter’s better seasons with the bat, but he has lost over three wins of offensive value since that point.

While Jeter has shown pretty solid pop for a shortstop in his career (.458 SLG, .142 ISO), he has often put the ball on the grass. His groundball percentage has hovered between 56.1% and 60% over the past four seasons, and sits at 55.6% for his career. With pretty solid speed and a line-drive bat (career 20.8 LD%), Jeter has consistently posted high Batting Average On Balls in Play (BABIP) marks (.361 career). However, it seems as though those skills might be in the process of eroding. Jeter’s 17.9 LD% in 2008 was the lowest mark that Fan Graphs has going back to 2002, and his .336 BABIP was the second-lowest of his career.

While it’s possible that his BABIP drop was just a blip, it seems pretty unlikely. Our own Peter Bendix recently co-authored a study on Expected BABIP at The Hardball Times, which introduced a more comprehensive and accurate way of measuring XBABIP for hitters. Among the facets of a player’s game that bode well for XBABIP are batting eye, line drive percentage, speed score and pitches per plate appearance. His batting eye (0.61 BB/K) was essentially unchanged (0.59 career) and his 3.7 P/PA was normal, but Jeter has shown significant erosion in the other two categories As mentioned before, Jeter’s 2008 LD% was his lowest mark by a decent margin, and it appears as though the captain’s wheels are grinding to a halt.

Using Bill James’ Speed Score, we can get a better read on Jeter’s speed (or lack thereof) in recent seasons. Speed Score is found by calculating a player’s score in five categories: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts, triples, runs scored per times on base and number of times grounded into a double play. By adding all five categories up and dividing by five, you get the player’s Speed Score. Speed Scores range from 0-10, with the average player posting a number in the range of five. If you want the full details on the formula used, take a look here.

Here are Jeter’s Speed Scores over the past three seasons…

2006

SB%: 8.09
SB Attempts: 5.77
Triples: 2.96
Runs: 7.62
GDP: 5.87

Total Speed Score: 6.06

2007

SB%: 4
SB Attempts: 4.61
Triples: 3.08
Runs: 7.03
GDP: 3.03

Total Speed Score: 4.49

2008

SB%: 4.17
SB Attempts: 4.03
Triples: 3
Runs: 6.62
GDP: 1.4

Total Speed Score: 3.84

Since 2006, Jeter has gone from possessing above-average speed to posting a Speed Score more commensurate with a first base/DH type. Another Bill James stat, Base Running Net Gain, also showcases Jeter’s slowing game. Base Running Net Gain compares a player to the league average in: advancing from first base to third base, second to home, first to home, ground into double play percentage, and stolen base percentage. A swift runner for most of his career (with a net base running gain of +76), Jeter is now below-average:

2006: +24 Net Bases
2007: +9 Net Bases
2008: -13 Net Bases

Not surprisingly, Jeter’s XBABIP under Peter’s system has fallen each year as well: .339 in ’06, .332 in ’07 and .310 this past season. With a three-year decline in LD% and rapidly deteriorating speed, Jeter’s BABIP drop looks like a significant trend, not just an anomaly. Posting a GB% near sixty was okay for the lithe, peak-career version of Derek Jeter, who possessed the athleticism to beat out fielders and reach base on infield hits. However, it’s a much less viable strategy for the current, decline-phase Jeter, who appears to be squarely in the clutches of father time.

I realize that criticizing Jeter is sort of the baseball equivalent of bashing Santa Claus, but there are undeniably a number of concerning trends here. A five year decline in ISO..a three year decline in LD%…a high GB% without the requisite speed to make those worm-burners count. I don’t really see a “flotation device”, a skill to fall back on. It sounds downright odd to say, but you might just want to avoid that Jeter guy on draft day.

We all know Barry Zito. He is the biggest bust in free agent history. Zito is the guy who walks over five batters per nine. He is the fellow with the -2.79 WPA, the fourth-worst mark among starting pitchers last year. Zito is also the guy who falls down in high leverage situations, as his -1.34 Clutch rate was the third-worst for starters. He is the pitcher with an average fastball velocity of 84.9, the fifth-slowest mark in baseball and surrounded by guys in their 40s.

So, why on earth would we focus on him as a fantasy player?

In the beginning of the century, Zito was one of the top pitchers in baseball. There is a combination of ability and pitching smarts hidden beneath the wreckage of the past two seasons.

Well, that and he rebounded to pitch half decently after an awful start in 2008.

After nine starts, Zito was 0-8 with a 6.25 ERA along with 24 walks and 22 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. And just for kicks he allowed six home runs in that stretch. Not much return for $14.5 million, was it?

But from May 23 until the end of the season, Zito was 10-9 with a 4.79 ERA. Now, that’s hardly anything to get excited about but at the very least it was a drastic improvement over what he did at the beginning of the season. His K/9 ratio jumped to 6.52 while his BB/9 actually increased to 5.19 from 4.84 earlier in the season. And he also kept the ball in the park, allowing a 0.67 HR/9 mark.

One of the keys to Zito’s turnaround is that he actually showed a little more life on his fastball as the season progressed. According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX site, in his penultimate start of the year, Zito’s fastball averaged 87.17 mph with a high of 89.4 compared to a season average of 84.9 as was mentioned earlier. By contrast, in his April 27 start, Zito’s fastball topped out at 84.4 and his average was 82.8 for the day.

With more life on his fastball, Zito went from awful to a league-average type starter. The final step in his rehabilitation will be to get his walk rate under control. And the main problem is still his fastball. According to Josh Kalk’s PITCHf/x tool, Zito’s fastball broke down like this:

Balls – 337
Called Strikes – 185
Swing and Miss – 36
Foul Ball – 123
Out Recorded – 78
Hit – 30

Clearly, with a heater that still doesn’t crack 90 mph, Zito can’t just lay his fastball down the heart of the plate. But hopefully, he can move closer to the strike zone and get more swings.

At this point, that is simply wishcasting. Zito actually has to go out and do it. Right now, he is not worth drafting in mixed leagues. But with the improvement that he showed last year, and with his past pedigree, Zito is someone to target late in NL-only leagues. And my hunch is that he will be a popular addition in mixed leagues during the season.

John Lackey’s ERA was the highest it has been since 2004, and his FIP was even higher. Should you be worried?

No.

In 2008, Lackey posted a 3.75 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. However, much of this can be attributed to an extremely high HR/FB. In fact, 15.3% of Lackey’s fly balls became homers last year, as compared to 7.3%, 5.7%, 6.6% and 9.0% over the previous four years, respectively. Lackey’s career HR/FB is 9.3% – just a tick under league average, and there’s no reason to think he suddenly became more homer-prone in 2008.

Lackey’s strikeout rate remained identical to his 2007 rate (and remember, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 2007), as he struck out 7.16 batters per nine in 08 and 7.19 per nine in 07. His walk rate also remained the same: 2.20 walks per nine in 08, 2.09 per nine in 07. Both his strikeout and walk rate have been trending down since 2005, and it appears that they have stabilized over the last two years.

Lackey’s batted ball data from 2008 was essentially in line with his career averages: batters hit line drives 20.2% of the time, ground balls 45.1% of the time and fly balls 34.7%. His career averages in these categories are 21.2% LD, 43.0% GB and 34.7% FB. Additionally, his pitch velocity and selection appear to be unchanged.

If you want to find something to be concerned about, it is worth noting that the amount of swinging strikes that Lackey has induced has gone down for four years running. In 2005, batters swung and missed at 10.2% of Lackey’s pitches; in 06 that fell to 9.7%, then 8.8% in 07 and 8.5% this year. This is still above average (league average for starters is 7.5%), but the downward trend is worrisome.

Overall, however, that’s the only warning sign for 2009, and it’s a relatively minor one at that. Lackey had a high LOB% in 2008 – he stranded 80.2% of the runners who reached base – and that number should regress towards his career average of 73.3%. However, that regression will likely be negated by the regression he should experience in his home run rate as well.

Lackey’s ERA probably won’t be 3.01 like it was in 2007, but it’s unlikely to be any higher than the 3.75 of 2008. A return to his 2005-2006 level of ERA is most likely. Lackey’s biggest problem may be the team around him, as I believe the Angels are in for a (perhaps serious) decline in 2009, one that could leave Lackey’s win total wanting. That, and his relatively low strikeout rate, probably prevent him from being a top-10 fantasy starter, but his durability and general skills probably leave him comfortably in the 11-20 range.

He’s still a very good pitcher, but his name recognition may slightly outpace his performance (even with an expected regression in HR/FB), perhaps leaving him a little overvalued in some leagues.

Feeling none too comfortable with the prospect of an in-house option taking over at shortstop, the St. Louis Cardinals went out and acquired Khalil Greene from the San Diego Padres. The 13th overall selection in the 2002 amateur draft, Greene was picked up in exchange for relief prospect Mark Worrell and a player to be named later. While Greene’s production went south in 2008, he still constitutes a decent value for the Cardinals, considering his $6.5 million price tag.

In sort of the inverse of the Matt Holliday trade, the first thought that will go through many heads about this swap is that Greene is now liberated. His offensive production is going to trend up now that he’s out of the treacherous environs of Petco Park. And certainly, that’s true to some extent. However, it would very likely be incorrect to assume that Greene’s career road numbers (.270/.318/.484) constitute his true talent level. By making such an assumption, one would be ignoring half of Greene’s career data, giving us a smaller and less reliable sample size. Rather than just tossing aside his home stats (.225/.289/.369), we can use context-neutral measures to get a better gauge on just what sort of hitter Greene has been over the past several years.

Luckily, Fangraphs has just such a context-neutral stat in WPA/LI. WPA/LI expresses offensive wins (without the leverage aspect of Win Probability Added), and is park adjusted. Using WPA/LI, we can evaluate Greene’s bat free of the run-suppressing tendencies of his home ballpark. Here are Greene’s WPA/LI numbers from 2004-2008, with his mark among qualified shortstops in parentheses:

2004: 0.16 (9/23)
2005: 0.55 (9/25)
2006: -0.48 (15/27)
2007: 1.69 (5/27)
2008: -1.56 (21/24)

Prior to 2008’s statistical face plant (more on that later), Greene had essentially been in the middle of the pack offensively among shortstops. Playing half of his games in a brutal offensive environment, the 29 year-old is a career .248/.304/.427 hitter. If we want to get a more accurate barometer of what his triple-slash lines would look like had he played in a neutral offensive environment, we can do that by using the amazing Baseball-Reference website.

B-R has a Play Index tool that adjusts a player’s production to fit particular run-scoring environments and home ballparks. Using this tool, we can place each year of Greene’s career in a neutral National League ballpark, adjusting for the Runs/Game average of that season to root out the effects of Petco. Here are Greene’s actual slash statistics, followed by his lines adjusted to a neutral NL ballpark:

2004 (4.64 NL Runs/G):

Actual: .273/.349/.446 Adjusted: .292/.371/.473

2005 (4.45 NL Runs/G):

Actual: .250/.296/.431 Adjusted: .262/.309/.451

2006 (4.76 NL Runs/G):

Actual: .245/.320/.427 Adjusted: .254/.330/.444

2007 (4.71 NL Runs/G):

Actual: .254/.291/.468 Adjusted: .263/.302/.483

2008 (4.54 NL Runs/G):

Actual: .213/.260/.339 Adjusted: .225/.274/.359

As mentioned earlier, Greene is a career .248/.304/.427 hitter. By taking his adjusted lines and weighing each year based on his number of plate appearances, I found that Greene’s career adjusted batting line is .261/.318/.447.

So, adjusting for Petco Park, Green has basically been a .260/.320/.450-type hitter. That’s pretty useful from a shortstop, both in real and fantasy baseball. However, what are we to make of Greene’s wretched performance this past season? Already a free swinger, Greene swung at just about everything in 2008, including birds, small aircrafts and, evidently, storage chests. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) has been steadily rising over the past few years. Not coincidentally, so has his First Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%):

2005: 22.7 O-Swing%, 58.2 F-Strike%
2006: 25.6 O-Swing%, 59 F-Strike%
2007: 29.2 O-Swing%, 60.4 F-Strike%
2008: 34.8 O-Swing%, 65 F-Strike%

To be sure, Greene is going to have to get his hacking tendencies in check if he’s going to bounce back to his 2004-2007 offensive levels. However, he did seem to suffer some poor fortune on balls put in play in 2008. Despite a 20.6 Line Drive Percentage (LD%), Greene posted just a .262 BABIP.

A below-average BABIP is nothing new for Greene, however, as his career mark sits at .285 despite a career 19.5 LD%. Greene is a pretty extreme flyball hitter (his 47.6 FB% in ’08 ranked 8th among all batters). Considering the spacious dimensions of Petco, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that Green’s below-average BABIP is at least somewhat the product of his skills being ill-suited to his home ballpark. However, a recent study that Peter Bendix co-authored about expected BABIP for The Hardball Times suggests that Greene was not as unlucky as LD% alone would make him out to be (under Peter’s model, Greene’s XBABIP is only slightly better at .271).

New Busch Stadium has played like a pitcher’s park during its first three seasons, suppressing runs by six percent and home runs by 16 percent. That’s not ideal for a flyball-oriented hitter like Greene, but it’s still an improvement over his previous home environment (over that same time frame, Petco has decreased run production by 20 percent and HR production by 19 percent). If Greene eases up on his ever-expanding strike zone, he should be worth a draft pick in deeper leagues. However, anyone taking Greene’s career road numbers and expecting him to reproduce them over a full season is more than likely going to be disappointed.

Quick: name the catcher with the highest slugging percentage (minimum 270 plate appearances) in 2008. Geovany Soto? No. Kelly Shoppach? Nope. Brian McCann? Closer, but not quite.

The answer, believe it or not, is Mike Napoli, with a whopping .586 mark. While the Angels backstop has yet to receive a full-time job in his three big league seasons, he has proven more than capable of crushing the ball on a regular basis.

Yes, Napoli does strike out. A lot. In 714 career at-bats, the 27 year-old has whiffed at a 31.2% clip. However, unlike Cleveland’s Shoppach (another high power, low contact catcher) Napoli combines his extra-base pop with a very keen batting eye. He posted a rock-solid .374 OBP in the minors, and that plate patience has carried over to the majors rather seamlessly. Napoli has drawn free passes 14.3% of the time, rarely straying outside of the strike zone (23.4 O-Swing%). Napoli’s batting average won’t be pretty, but he possesses the walks and power to remain a very productive hitter.

Napoli’s power is impressive regardless of his position, but it’s downright heavenly for a catcher. Owner of a career .493 slugging percentage and a gargantuan .245 ISO, Napoli took his slugging exploits to even greater levels last year. Granted, it was only 274 PA, but Napoli’s .313 ISO was the best of any batter receiving at least 270 PA, surpassing demi-god/cyborg Albert Pujols (.296), and his wOBA of .399 ranked 15th in the big leagues.

The Angels’ 17th-round pick in the 2000 draft has yet to receive a full-time gig for two reasons: 1.) Napoli suffered ankle and hamstring injuries in 2007, as well as a shoulder ailment in 2008 and 2.) the Angels have taken a liking to catch-and-throw backstop Jeff Mathis. Mathis was once a well-regarded prospect himself, but offense dried up upon reaching AAA Salt Lake City, and he has authored a sickly .195/.272/.326 line in 589 career PA. It is pretty difficult to conceive of a scenario where Mathis’ defense atones for that sort of offensive performance (and, Napoli actually posted better caught stealing percentages in 2006 and 2007, before Mathis bested him in ’08 while Napoli dealt with a shoulder injury).

Mike Napoli might not be as well known as some other players who don the tools of ignorance, but his potent bat makes him an intriguing choice on draft day. Napoli may miss a few games with some bumps and bruises, and Brad Ausmus proxy Mathis could steal a start here and there. But how many catcher possess secondary skills of this caliber? The Bill James projection system forecasts a .252/.361/.512 line for Napoli in 449 AB, with a whopping 31 home runs. Perhaps you might think that’s a tad optimistic, but even more conservative estimates would place Napoli among the top-hitting catchers in the major leagues. If you want an Angelic performance from your starting catcher, Nab Napoli while you still can.

Michael Bowden had a fantastic season in 2008. He began the year at double-A Portland, where he posted a 101/24 K/BB ratio in 104 innings. He also allowed only five homers. He was then promoted to triple-A, where he put up a 29/5 ratio in 40 innings, while allowing five homers. On the surface, those are some excellent numbers.

But if you look beyond the surface, you’ll see that Bowden was even better than his overall numbers suggested. Bowden’s tRA* (which can be found over at Stat Corner) at double-A was 3.20. That’s the best tRA* of any starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year, at any level.

And yes, the Eastern League (in which Portland plays) is generally pretty favorable to pitchers. But still: Bowden’s tRA* was over 25% better than the next closest pitcher in the Eastern League. Bowden’s led the league in tRA* by a larger margin than any other pitcher in the minors led his league. In other words, relative to his own league, Bowden was by far the most dominant starting pitcher in the minor leagues.

Furthermore, Bowden showed no visible home/road splits, nor any lefty/righty splits. To be sure, Bowden’s raw stats were enhanced by a .247 BABIP and a low HR/FB; however, tRA* takes these things into account, by ignoring BABIP (instead focusing on what types of batted balls a pitcher gets), and regressing HR/FB. Therefore, while Bowden’s overall stats may represent a semblance of good luck (low BABIP, for example), his tRA* is luck-free.

Finally, Bowden is not a “trick” pitcher – his velocity and stuff backs up his stats, suggesting that he could find continued success at the big league level. In his one start at the major league level, his fastball averaged 92 MPH, and he showed four pitches: a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Bowden will be able to have success in the future. However, using tRA* gives us a better understanding of the pitcher Bowden was in 2008, and therefore gives us a better insight into what kind of pitcher he can be in 2009 and beyond: namely, a top-tier starter.

The Red Sox already have an impressive array of young pitchers – Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz (who I still believe will be good) are all under 30 years old. Bowden can get lost in the shuffle, but he was the very best starting pitcher in all of the minor leagues in 2008, despite being just 21 years old.

Of course, the Red Sox’s tremendous amount of pitching talent means that Bowden may not make too many starts in the majors in 2009. The Red Sox will carefully monitor his innings total – he pitched 150 innings last year, after totaling 142 innings in 2007 and 112 innings in 2006. The Red Sox probably won’t want him to exceed 160-170 innings in 2009.

However, there may be room for Bowden at the major league level: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Wakefield are all ahead of him, but Buchholz may have fallen behind him, Masterson may be a full-time reliever and Wakefield is very risky. Bowden has demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch – and be successful – at the major league level, and if given the chance to make some starts in 2009, he could be quite a steal for your fantasy team.

Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Scott Kazmir is exceptionally talented yet eminently frustrating. Still just 25 years of age heading into the 2009 season, Kazmir has a long history of missing bats (career 9.75 K/9) and walking the yard (4.13 BB/9). Those trends continued in 2008 (9.81 BB/9, 4.14 BB/9), but they way in which the former Mets farmhand went about getting those familiar results continued to change rather drastically. The 6 foot, 190 pounder has posted very similar ERA’s over the past three seasons (3.24, 3.48 and 3.49, respectively), but his pitching style and underlying skills have morphed from 2006 to the present day. It may sound strange to say, but the current version of Scott Kazmir scarcely resembles the guy who took the hill at the Trop a few years back.

By 2006, Kazmir had established himself as a lefty with plus velocity, a wipeout slider and a decent changeup. He used his 91.9 MPH heater 56.2% of the time, relying heavily on his nasty 84 MPH breaking pitch (28.6%) while also utilizing an 82 MPH changeup 15.2% of the time. Punching out 10.14 batters per nine innings and issuing 3.24 BB/9, Kazmir posted a sparkling 3.36 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA).

The shift in Kazmir’s pitch selection began in 2007, as he began to rely more heavily upon his fastball. Kazmir threw his 92.1 MPH cheese to batters 69.6% of the time, a hefty increase of 13.4% from the previous year. While he threw his 81.4 MPH change a little bit less (11.6%), it was Kazmir’s 83.7 MPH slider that took a considerable drop in usage (18.8%). Kazmir’s FIP ERA remained strong (3.45), as a small spike in K’s (10.41 per nine innings) offset an increase in walks (3.88 BB/9).

Kazmir took his fastball preference to even greater extremes this past season, as he threw his 91.7 MPH heater a whopping 75.3% of the time. Among starters tossing at least 150 innings, only perennial disappointment Daniel Cabrera and sinkerballers Aaron Cook and Mike Pelfrey utilized the fastball more often. Kazmir essentially scrapped his once-signature slider, throwing the 82 MPH pitch just 9.6%. Instead, he used a 78.8 MPH changeup as his preferred secondary offering, pulling the string on 15.1% of his total pitches.

By looking at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, it becomes apparent that Kazmir didn’t feel as comfortable using his slider in strikeout situations and in full counts:

0-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (58.7%), Slider (39.7%), Changeup (1.6%)

2008: Fastball (72.8%), Slider (24.3%) , Changeup (2.9%)

3-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (63%), Slider (26.1%) , Changeup (10.9%)

2008: Fastball (91.5%), Slider (2.1%) , Changeup (6.4%)

Kazmir preferred his fastball in situations where he got well ahead of the batter, and when he absolutely needed to throw a strike, he basically shunned his slider.

In 2008, Kazmir’s FIP ERA ascended to 4.37. The primary culprit was a big spike in home runs allowed. After posting HR/9 marks of 0.93 and 0.78 in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir tossed way too many pitches that ended up as souvenirs in ’08 (1.36 HR/9). One might be inclined to write the increased home runs off, believing it was just an anomaly. However, Kazmir was not particularly unlucky on flyballs, as his HR/FB ratio of 12% was just slightly above the norm. The cause of the homer increase can be tied to his becoming one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors. After compiling groundball rates of 42% and 43.1% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir put the ball in the dirt just 30.8% of the time in 2008. That was the lowest rate of any starter pitching at least 150 frames.

You wouldn’t really know it by taking a quick glance at his stat sheet, but Kazmir has changed his game plan quite a bit over the past few seasons. What sort of effect will these changes have on him going forward? Let’s deal with them one by one…

Increased fastball usage, far fewer sliders

Kazmir threw his heater nearly 20% more in 2008 than he did in 2006, rarely utilizing his once bread-and-butter slider. It’s difficult to say what sort of role Kazmir’s elbow injury played in his pitch usage. Was he rarely breaking out the slider because it put increased pressure on his tender arm? If so, will he return to throwing it more often in 2009, or will he continue to favor the less stressful changeup? Also, what sort of effect did Kazmir’s fastball love have on his walk rate? Was his pitch selection the cause of his even more pronounced control issues, or was that the product of his elbow troubles?

Using the changeup as his favored offspeed pitch

If Kazmir prefers the changeup, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The speed differential between his fastball and change has increased over the past few seasons (9.9 MPH in ’06, 10.7 MPH in ’07, and 12.9 MPH in ’08), and the pitch features excellent vertical drop:

Fastball : 5.92 X, 10.48 Z
Changeup: 7.46 X, 4.1 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Kazmir’s change shows both fading and tumbling action, dropping over 6 inches further than his fastball. Combine that movement with a solid speed differential, and Kazmir’s change has the makings of a knockout pitch.

Flyball tendencies

It was one season of data, but Kazmir became the most extreme flyball pitcher in the big leagues. Should those tendencies stick, he’s going to surrender plenty of longballs again in 2009. With starts coming against forces such as Fenway Park’s Green Monster (doubles park factor from 2006-2008: 143), The Rogers Centre (HR park factor: 113) and Camden Yards (HR park factor: 123), putting the ball in the air so often is probably not advisable.

Kazmir posted another shiny ERA in 2008, but his controllable skills took a bit of a backslide as he battled his control and gave up home runs aplenty. A .275 BABIP and an extraordinarily high 82.5 LOB% masked his problems, but Kazmir could disappoint if he takes to the air with such frequency again in 2009.