As mentioned yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds outfield is something of a mess right now. However, there is one leviathan-sized exception: 21 year-old prodigy Jay Bruce. Since the Texas native was selected out of high school with the 12th overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Bruce has been “The Boss” of minor league pitchers by compiling a career .308/.366/.555 minor league line. In his first action in the big leagues, the 6-3, 205 pounder held his own (.254/.314/.453). That’s pretty darned impressive for a guy in the majors at an age where some players are college juniors. To determine what we can expect from Bruce in 2009 and beyond, let’s take a closer look at his minor league resume.

2005
GCL Reds (Rookie ball, GCL): 122 AB, .270/.331/.500, 9BB%, 25.4K%, .230 ISO
Billings (Rookie ball, Pioneer League): 70 AB, .257/.358/.457, 15.7BB%, 31.4K%, .200 ISO

Right off the bat, Bruce showed the lefty pop that led Baseball America to liken him to a young Larry Walker who possessed the “strength and skill to eventually hit 30-plus homers.” In a small sample size, he showed the ability to drive the ball, though the K rates were a bit high. BA noted that he could occasionally become “antsy” at the dish. Still, as far as debuts go, this was an extremely promising one. Prior to the 2006 season, BA ranked Bruce as the 76th-best prospect in the minors.

2006
Dayton (Low-A, Midwest League): 444 AB, .291/.355/.516, 9BB%, 23.9K%, .225 ISO

In a league that tends to suppress power, Bruce posted a .220+ ISO as a 19-year old. He popped 16 home runs while compiling 63 extra-base hits overall. Suffice it to say, those power projections looked spot-on after his full-season debut. Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the 14th-best prospect in the minors, again making comparisons to Walker. His walk rate was solid, if unspectacular, and the K rate was a little high, but few teenagers show as much in-game power as Bruce did at such an early stage of development. As BA noted, “he can show more plate discipline, but the Reds will happily live with some strikeouts if Bruce continues to pound the ball.”

2007
Sarasota (High-A, Florida State League): 268 AB, .325/.380/.586, 8.2BB%, 25K%, .261 ISO
Chattanooga (AA, Southern League): 66 AB, .333/.405/.652, 10.8BB%, 30.3K%, .318 ISO
Louisville (AAA, International League): 187 AB, .305/.356/.567, 7.4BB%, 25.7K%, .262 ISO

Talk about a quick rise through the minor leagues. Bruce obliterated the baseball at every stop, hitting a combined 26 homers and 80 extra-base hits (!) between his three stops. His control of the strike zone remained a bit unrefined, as the lofty strikeout rates and moderate walk rates attest, but for a 20 year-old to sprint through the minors and tear the seams off of the ball at every level is mighty impressive. Prior to the ’08 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the very best prospect in the game, rating his power as a 65-70 while rating all of his tools as at least a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale (50 is considered major league average). In other words, BA ranked every aspect of Bruce’s game as above the norm.

2008
Louisville: 184 AB, .364/.403/.630, 6.1BB%, 24.5K%, .266 ISO
Cincinnati (MLB): 413 AB, .254/.314/.453, 7.4 BB% 26.6K%, .199 ISO

After aggressively punishing the International League pitching staff for a while, Bruce was called up to Cincinnati in late May and proceeded to cream everything in sight, posting an absurd 1.575 OPS in 25 PA. He cooled off over the next few months before posting solid numbers in September and early October (.924 OPS in 92 PA). The strikeout rate remains something of an issue (his contact rate with the Reds was a low 71.61%) and he was a bit liberal in terms of swinging at pitches thrown out of the strike zone (30.39 O-Swing%). However, considering Bruce’s lukewarm walk rates in the minors, a 7.4BB% is rather promising for a 21 year-old cutting his teeth in the majors, as is the near-.200 ISO.

Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.

Free-agent-to-be Andy Pettitte is 36 years old. The man who has spent 11 years of his career in pinstripes is coming off of a 2008 season in which he posted a 4.54 ERA, his highest mark since 1999. Pettitte surrendered 233 hits in 204 innings, or 10.28 per 9 frames. Those numbers suggest that Pettitte has slipped a notch or two, and is in the decline phase of his career. Something declined in the Bronx this past year, but it wasn’t Pettitte: the quality of the defense behind him is the culprit for Andy’s ascending ERA.

In terms of controllable skills, Pettitte has lost almost nothing to father time. He struck out 6.97 batters per nine innings while showing his typically-solid control, issuing 2.43 BB/9. That 2.87 K/BB ratio helped Pettitte post a 3.71 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). The 0.84 run difference between his actual ERA (4.54) and his FIP ERA is the fifth-largest in baseball among qualified pitchers. The reason for that wide dichotomy is Andy’s Sistine Chapel-high .339 BABIP. When a hitter put the ball in play, those Yankee gloves did a very poor job of converting it into an out. The Bombers ranked 25th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which measures the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but since Pettitte posted a 1.80 GB/FB ratio in 2008 (thus giving his infield D plenty of chances), let’s start in the infield. From Bill James Online, we can take a look at John Dewan’s Plus/Minus Fielding Data. Dewan’s system rates players based on the number of plays made above/below the number that an average fielder would make. For a more complicated explanation, see Dewan’s site. By position, here are the infield’s plus/minus numbers, with their rank among that position in parentheses:

1B Jason Giambi: -18(34)
2B Robinson Cano: -16(35)
SS Derek Jeter: -12 (31) (blasphemy!)
3B Alex Rodriguez: +2(17)

Only A Rod came in with a solid rating, with Giambi, Cano and Jeter all coming in well below the major league average. Without starting a riot or beating to death a topic that has been widely discussed, it’s virtually impossible to find an objective defensive metric that rates Jeter as anything a poor-fielding major league shortstop. In fact, his -12 showing this past year was actually a major improvement from ’07 (-34). Perhaps there’s some hope of a rebound for Cano, as he posted an excellent +17 mark in 2007 (5th-best among 2B). Giambi, meanwhile, has long been an iron glove at first. But, like Pettitte, he’s a free agent after the Yankees declined his $22M option by buying him out for $5M. Perhaps the good folks in New York who sit along the first base line will no longer have to wear protective equipment to the game to shield against Giambi’s follies, as slick-fielding Mark Teixeira (+24) is a possible replacement.

While Pettitte is more of a groundball-oriented pitcher, we would be remiss if we didn’t mention the extreme difficulty that one New York outfielder had as well:

Johnny Damon: +7 in LF(10), -3 in CF
Hideki Matsui: -2 in LF
Xavier Nady: -4 in RF(22), +2 in LF
Brett Gardner: -2 in LF, +6 in CF
Melky Cabrera: +6 in CF(11)
Bobby Abreu: -24 in RF(34)

Abreu (also a free agent) showed precious little range in right field, and it’s not a one year fluke: he rated 32nd among RF in both 2006 and 2007. The soon-to-be-36 year-old remains a solid hitter, but NL teams may want to think twice before offering him a multi-year contract.

If Cano rebounds, Teixeira signs, Abreu moves on and Jeter moves off of shortstop (hey, a guy can dream, can’t he?), the Yankees could improve defensively by a significant margin. However, none of those things are guaranteed, and it’s possible that the club will be sporting little leather once again next season. Pettitte is a long-time Yankee and a former farm product, but he might do his ERA a favor by picking a less defensively-challenged team this winter.

The ninth pick of the 2005 draft, Mike Pelfrey shook off a brutal start to begin paying dividends for both the Mets and fantasy players last year. He finished with 13 wins and a 3.72 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and 110 strikeouts. Those numbers combined to make Pelfrey a top-60 starting pitcher in fantasy in 2008.

Those numbers are decent but to decipher Pelfrey’s potential value in 2009, it is worthwhile to look at his numbers both before and after he turned the corner. In the first nine starts of the year, Pelfrey was 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.776 WHIP. In his final 23 games, Pelfrey was 11-5 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP.

Now, those first nine starts of 2008 count and it would be foolish to write them off completely. But at the same time when projecting Pelfrey’s 2009 stats, it is equally silly to ignore the improvement he made over his final 23 games. He was so bad the first two months of the season that it dragged down his overall numbers.

If Pelfrey’s true talent level is a pitcher with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP then he moves up to the equal of pitchers like Ted Lilly or Jon Lester in the 20-25 range for starting pitchers.

Now we should look at his peripherals. Pelfrey had a .302 BABIP and his 3.96 FIP was slightly over his 3.72 ERA. A sinkerball pitcher, Pelfrey does an excellent job keeping the ball in the park, as his 0.54 HR/9 shows. He really turned the corner last year with his command. He finished with a 2.87 BB/9, which was nearly two full walks lower than his 2007 mark.

When valuing Pelfrey for 2009, ask if he can keep his HR rate that low. I believe with that power sinker he can. Then, can he keep the walk rate that low? Ordinarily, I would say no. But when we look at what he did over his final 23 games, his BB/9 mark was 2.37 over that span. That gives me greater confidence that he can maintain his 2008 seasonal rate of just under three.

So, the final thing to ponder is what will his K/9 look like. For all of 2008 it was 4.93, which is less than good. It was slightly better over his final 23 games – 5.16 – but nothing really to write home about, either. Pelfrey can survive without a high strikeout rate, but as fantasy players we want the big strikeout guys and it’s an important factor in ranking him appropriately.

Pelfrey had good-to-great strikeout rates in the minors. He averaged 6.81 SO/9 in 14 games at Triple-A in 2007 and had double-digit rates in 2006. And we’ve seen with Chien-Ming Wang that a sinkerballer can add strikeouts as they mature. I think a SO/9 rate of 6.00 is within reach for Pelfrey in 2009.

It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.

A quick look at the Cincinnati Reds’ 40-man roster reveals a land of opportunity in the outfield. Aside from mega-prospect Jay Bruce (more on him tomorrow), there’s…not much else. Utility-man Ryan Freel endured an injury-plagued season (though at least he still has Farney) and while Jerry Hairston Jr. (splitting time between center field and shortstop) turned in .326/.384/.487 line in 297 PA last year, he is also a 31 year-old with a career .700 OPS.

A lot could happen between now and opening day, be it a free agent signing or a trade. But as it stands right now, home-grown product Chris Dickerson figures to see a significant amount of playing time. A 6-3, 225 pound lefty hitter, Dickerson possesses an interesting blend of patience, speed and a little bit of power. The 26 year-old certainly made the most of his major league debut in 2008, batting .304/.413/.608 in 122 PA, popping 6 homers and drawing 17 walks. Is his Ruthian start a sign of things to come, or just insignificant small-sample mashing?

Selected out of Nevada in the 16th round of the 2003 amateur entry draft, Dickerson has shown good on-base skills in compiling a .260/.363/.415 minor league line. Since reaching AAA Louisville, he has shown a little more pop:

2007: 354 AB, .260/.355/.435
2008: 349 AB, .287/.382/.479

Dickerson could also be of some help in the steals category, as he has been a high-percentage base stealer in 2007 (23 of 28, 82.1%) and 2008 (26 of 33, 78.8%).

Of course, there’s one giant pink elephant in the room: Dickerson’s Kingman-esque strikeout rate. He whiffed a whopping 37% at Louisville in 2007, before cutting that rate to a still-whopping 29.2% in 2008. With the Reds, he K’d 34.3%. While he showed relatively solid plate discipline in Cincinnati (swinging at 24.44% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone), his contact rate was a Custian 69.53%.

Strikeouts do not necessarily keep a player from producing, provided that player has very solid secondary skills (walks and power). Dickerson has one of those, but his minor league track record suggests that his pop is only mid-range. Given his advanced age for a prospect, a high whiff rate and modest pop, Dickerson looks more like a useful fourth outfielder at the major league level than any sort of impact player. Don’t be fooled by his scalding cup of coffee last year: Dickerson can draw a walk and cause a little havoc on the basepaths, but he’s probably not starting material.

Precious little went right for the Colorado Rockies in 2008. On the heels of a campaign in which the club improbably won 20 of 21 games to finish out the regular season and advanced to the World Series, the Rockies suffered multiple injuries and came crashing back to earth, posting a 74-88 Pythagorean record.

One bright spot in an otherwise bleak season was the continued development of right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a non-drafted free agent in 2001, Jimenez has long adorned prospect lists on the basis of pure stuff; mid-to-upper 90’s heat and occasionally nasty breaking pitches have a way of catching the attention of scouts. While Jimenez showed a propensity to miss bats in the minors (8.81 K/9), he also displayed less-than-stellar control by issuing 4.47 free passes per nine innings.

Ubaldo got a brief cup of coffee with Colorado in 2006 before making it to the big leagues for good in July of 2007, when he was inserted into the starting rotation. Given his performances at AAA Colorado Springs, however, there were reasons to doubt his readiness:

2006: 78.1 IP, 5.06 ERA, 7.35 K/9, 4.94 BB/9
2007: 103 IP, 5.85 ERA, 7.78 K/9, 5.42 BB/9

Granted, Colorado Springs is a tough pitching environment (inflating offensive production between 6-9% from 2005-2007, per Baseball Prospectus 2008), but walking well over 5 batters per nine innings is certainly not the hallmark of a finished product.

Despite the ugly numbers in the high minors, Jimenez actually handled himself quite well. While his control was still rough around the edges (4.06 BB/9) he K’d 7.46/9 while showcasing a fastball that popped the catcher’s mitt at an average speed of 95.8 MPH. In 82 innings of work, Jimenez posted a 4.74 FIP ERA. Considering his home environment and his lukewarm performances at AAA, that qualified as a successful debut.

In his first full year in the rotation in 2008, Ubaldo made 34 starts, lowering his FIP ERA to a tidy 3.83. He struck out a few more batters (7.79 K/9), though he also regressed a bit with his control (4.67 BB/9). Interestingly, Jimenez became much more of a groundball pitcher this past season:

2007: 1.26 GB/FB, 46.4 GB%
2008: 1.94 GB/FB, 54.4 GB%

Perhaps trading some speed for movement, Jimenez threw his fastball a little bit slower (94.9 MPH) in 2008. If Ubaldo can keep up this worm-killing trend in the future, it would bode very well for his career prospects. Clearly, Coors Field is not a venue where one wants to put the ball in the air with any frequency. With fewer balls leaving the infield, Jimenez slashed his HR/9 rate from 1.1 in ’07 to 0.5 in ’08. That number will likely regress somewhat next season (his HR/FB% was a very low 6.9%), but fewer flyballs should mean fewer cheap home runs at Coors.

Ubaldo Jimenez (25 in January) remains somewhat raw, but his combination of solid strikeout rates and groundball tendencies make him an intriguing starter. Armed with mid-90’s heat, an 86 MPH power slider, a 75 MPH curve and an 86 MPH changeup, Jimenez has the repertoire to make hitters’ lives difficult in the NL West. He will likely always walk his fair share of hitters, but if Jimenez can miss bats and keep his infield defense busy, he could develop into a fantasy stalwart.

The Pirates defense was terrible in 2008.

Nate McLouth had no range in center. Jason Bay and Xavier Nady weren’t much better in the corners. Freddy Sanchez was terrible at second base. The list goes on.

Why do you, the astute fantasy baseball player, care about the Pirates defense? Because it contributed to poor pitching performances. And if the defense improves – which it should – you may be able to find some sleepers on the Pirates pitching staff.

There is reason to believe that the Pirates defense will be better in 09 than it was in 08. First of all, Bay and Nady have since departed. At some point in 09, it’s likely that McLouth will be moved to a corner, and Andrew McCutchen – who is reported to be an above-average defender – will replace him in center field. Furthermore, Andy LaRoche is entrenched at third base, where he should be at least average. While Sanchez remains at second and shortstop is a question mark, the Pirates defense should be much better than it was last year, even if they’re not leading the league in DER.

This has ramifications for all Pirates pitchers, but two in particular:

Ian Snell had the second-highest BABIP of any starting pitcher in baseball, at .358. Even allowing for the fact that Snell may be more hittable than your average pitcher, a .358 BABIP is ridiculously high, and will likely regress to the mean next year. Even though Snell had a 5.42 ERA this season, he coupled that with a 4.57 FIP, suggesting a fair amount of bad luck. With some regression to the mean – and an improved defense behind him – Snell should see a lot more balls in play become outs next year. Snell may not be an ace, but he could be a decent fantasy pitcher, especially in deeper leagues.

Along similar lines, Zach Duke posted a .327 BABIP this year – ninth highest of all pitchers. Duke is also rather hittable, but it’s no coincidence that the two of the Pirates starting pitchers were in the top-10 in BABIP: their defense really was that bad. Even if Duke regresses, he’s still nothing more than a waiver-wire pickup or a late pick in an NL-only league; even so, Duke is likely to be undervalued, and should be watched in deep leagues.

Quick: match these 2008 pitching stats with the players who authored them:

Pitcher A: 173.2 IP, 3.60 FIP ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 1.70 WPA, 27 years old
Pitcher B: 202.1 IP, 3.56 FIP ERA, 8.14 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 1.74 WPA, 25 years old

As you can see, these two fellows are nearly dead even in terms of Fielding Independent ERA, with Pitcher A holding a slight edge in K’s and Pitcher B exhibiting sharper control. Both players enjoyed very strong campaigns, but the perception of the two is markedly different. Player A is considered a bondfide ace, and has been the subject of much trade debate. Player B, meanwhile, might not even be recognized by the average fan as the best starting pitcher on his own team.

So, who are these guys? Player A is quasi-ace Jake Peavy. Player B is none other than Royals righty Zack Greinke. If we want to dig a little bit deeper into their respective 2008 seasons, the numbers actually slant a little further toward Greinke’s favor. Using Statcorner’s tRA statistic (which is park and defense neutral, thus negating Peavy’s Petco Park advantage), we find that Peavy turned in a 4.02 tRA (4.77 NL average) and a 116 tRA+ (100 is average), while Greinke managed a 3.74 tRA (4.87 AL average) and a 123 tRA+. In other words, Greinke outperformed the man for whom teams are lining up to surrender their farm systems.

None of this is to criticize Peavy (though his trade value might be slightly less than it seems at first glance). This exercise simply points out just how good Zack Greinke has become. He has essentially transformed from more of a finesse pitcher to a power arm capable of ripping through the best lineups in the DH league.

Greinke’s first two years in the big leagues were solid (his 5.80 ERA in ’05 was the result of a fluky .343 BABIP), but his K rates were not those of a fledging ace:

2004: 6.21 K/9, 1.61 BB/9, 4.64 XFIP
2005: 5.61 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 4.94 XFIP

(for those of you wondering, XFIP is a fielding independent stat that “normalizes” home run rates. HR/fly ball rates tend to fluctuate, so this takes out some of the “noise” from the pitcher’s line and just examines strikeouts, walks, and uses an average home/flyball rate.)

Following a 2006 season in which Greinke dealt with some personal issues (spending the great majority of the season at AA), he re-emerged in 2007 as a vastly different type of pitcher. While his average fastball velocity was a mild 89.8 MPH in 2005, he threw his heat an average of 94 MPH in 2007. He threw his cheese slightly softer in ’08 (93.3 MPH), but that’s still one hefty increase in speed. And, as we can see from Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, Greinke’s fastball is anything but “true”: it has above-average vertical movement and plenty of tailing action in on the hands of a right-handed batter. With that increased speed, Greinke’s pedestrian K rate climbed to 7.82 in 2007 before hitting a career-high 8.14 this past season.

Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Greinke’s dastardly secondary pitches as well. When he’s not firing darts with his fastball, he can utilize a hard 85 MPH slider or a soft 74 MPH curveball to buckle hitters’ knees. Still not impressed? He can also break out an 82 MPH changeup with fading and dropping action.

By utilizing John Walsh’s work from The Hardball Times and Josh Kalk’s pitch data, we can compare Greinke’s vertical and horizontal movement on his pitches to that of the average pitcher:

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Fastball
Greinke: -5.29X, 10.61Z
Average: -6.2X, 8.9Z

Slider
Greinke: 4.28X, 0.63Z
Average: 0.7X, 3.7Z

Curveball
Greinke: 7.42X, -3.29Z
Average: 5.2X, -3.3Z

Changeup
Greinke: -8.52X, 4.95Z
Average: -7.4X, 6.0Z

Greinke has a four-pitch mix, and literally all four could be considered plus offerings considering their above-average movement. His curveball and slider both generate a ridiculous amount of horizontal break, while his changeup drops over 5 inches more than his fastball while also tailing away an additional 3.2 inches. And, as if he didn’t have enough going for him, Zack upped his groundball rate from a very low 32.1% in 2007 to 42.7% in 2008. Fewer fly balls means fewer opportunities for the home run bug to bite him.

While other starting pitchers may come with a higher degree of name recognition, few are better than Zack Greinke. Given his youth, power arsenal and positive statistical trends, there’s no reason not to pick this guy early on draft day.

The first overall pick of the 2005 draft, out of a Virginia high school, had an up-and-down first full season in the Major Leagues. Justin Upton’s final line of .250/.353/.463 in 356 at-bats does not even begin to scratch the surface on his potential.

The infielder-turned-outfielder could very well explode in 2009 with a year of experience under his belt. He showed a willingness to take a walk (especially for a 20 year old) with a 13.2 BB%. His strikeout rate at 34 K% was high but that should improve as he gains experience facing star pitching, as he had fewer than 1,000 minor league at-bats before securing a full-time Major League job. He has a lot of room to improve upon his contract rate of 68.09%, which is below even Adam Dunn’s 71.77% and Russell Branyan’s 68.54%.

Thanks to quick bat speed, Upton generates excellent power on his 6’2”, 205 lbs frame. He slugged 15 home runs in 2008, with an ISO of .213, and should continue to build upon his power numbers as he matures. Upton also has the necessary speed to steal 20-30 bases, if he is motivated to do so.

One thing to be mindful of with Upton in 2009 is his home/road split from 2008, which included a .321/.407/.632 line at home and a .169/.291/.271 line on the road. You definitely want him in the line-up when the Diamondbacks are playing in Arizona. It’s also hard to know if Upton’s oblique strain, which kept him out of the line-up for seven weeks, was affecting him prior to his disabled list trip. It could have been a factor in his .123/.305/.215 line in June.

You certainly do not want to select Upton near the top of your fantasy draft, but he is a solid option later in the draft when you are looking for a player who should produce average numbers across the board – with the potential to absolutely explode. There is no where to go but up for this talented, young player.

Finding undervalued closers is one of the most potent weapons any fantasy baseball player can have at his or her disposal. Closers can be extremely volatile – relievers themselves can fluctuate wildly from year to year, and closers need save situations in order to get a save. Furthermore, closers depend on a manager’s usage more than any other player.

However, the astute fantasy player need not pay top dollar for guys like Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan (who, although they are awesome, tend to be overvalued). Rather, if you know where to look, you can get tremendous value on your closers.

With that in mind, I will periodically take a look at various closer situations around the league in an effort to find undervalued closers (or potential closers). Today, I want to look at my favorite team growing up: the Cleveland Indians.

The Indians are an extremely smart, progressive organization, that seemingly understands how to properly deploy its relievers – namely, that the closer need not be the best reliever in the pen. This is why Bob Wickman held down the job for several years, and why Joe Borowski was the closer until recently. Although both men caused Indians fan to have more than a few heart attacks along the way, they generally got the job done, and allowed better relievers like Rafael Betancourt to be used in more important, higher leverage situations.

That being said, the Indians are currently looking for a closer for 2009. They may very well obtain a reliever via trade or on the free agent market, but keep a close eye on home-grown Jensen Lewis.

Lewis held down the job at the end of 2008 and pitched admirably in the closer’s role, notching 13 saves. Of course, saves are much more about opportunity and usage, rather than a pitcher’s actual ability. And I think that Lewis fits the mold of what the Indians are looking for in a closer: namely, he’s not that good.

Bear with me here – Jensen Lewis is a pretty good pitcher. But he’s not an amazing pitcher; rather, he’s a solid guy who can go out there and get three outs rather consistently. He pounds the strike zone but isn’t as stingy with the free pass as Rafael Betancourt (a healthy Betancourt, not the 2008-version that was plagued with back issues). He gets his share of strikeouts, but isn’t a strikeout-machine. He doesn’t have extreme platoon splits, and he doesn’t get a ton of ground balls.

In other words, Lewis is perfectly suited to be brought into a game when there is no one on base. He’s not a guy you want to bring in when you need a double play, or when you absolutely can’t issue a walk, or when a strikeout is more valuable than any other out. And the Indians have shown in the past that this is the type of pitcher that they look to use in the closer’s role, while saving “better” pitchers – like Betancourt or Rafael Perez – for more important situations.

Thus, while many moves may still be made before now and the beginning of next season, my money is on Jensen Lewis being the Indians closer in 2009. If so, he has the potential to be a big steal on draft day: he’s not the biggest name, he won’t get the most strikeouts, but if he is named the closer he will rack up the saves for a good Indians team that will likely give him many opportunities.

When Delmon Young was selected 1st overall in the 2003 amateur entry draft, scouts drooled over his impactful bat. A 6-3, 205 pound right-handed hitter, Young elicited comparisons to a youthful Albert Belle. As a precocious prospect, Young compiled an excellent minor league resume, batting a combined .317/.363/.517 in three years while rocketing through the Tampa Bay farm system. Sure, you would like to a few more walks, but those numbers are first-rate considering that Young was several years younger than his peers. Young reached the majors late in the 2006 season as a 20 year-old, posting an aggressive-but-impressive .317/.336/.476.

Since that point, Young has experienced some growing pains. As a 21 year-old in 2007, he managed a .288/.316/.408 line, with a minuscule walk rate (3.9 BB%) and a rather tame .119 ISO. It must be mentioned that it is a rather Herculean feat for a 21 year-old to keep his head above water in the majors, as Young did. Still, Delmon’s approach was greener than grass, as he swung at a startling 41.33% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Among qualified batters, only Fan Graphs whipping boy Tony Pena Jr. and notorious bad-ball hitter Vladimir Guerrero had a higher O-Swing%. Also, Young hit a groundball 46.3% of the time, far more than one would expect from a corner outfielder known for possessing lightning in his bat.

Along with Jason Pridie and Brendan Harris, Young was traded to the Minnesota Twins last offseason in exchange for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan. While Garza posted a solid 1.81 WPA/LI for the AL champion Rays, Young (-1.25 WPA/LI) posted another tepid line in 2008:

.290/.336/.405, 5.7 BB%, .115 ISO

Young’s execrable plate discipline improved by a very slight margin, as he swung at “only” 39.92% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (4th-worst in the majors..hey, it’s a start). However, his power remained nonexistent, and his already-high groundball rate skyrocketed from 46.3% to 55.2%. Delmon’s groundball rate was the 6th-highest among qualified batters. A quick look at the top batters in GB% shows the likes of Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Bourn, Jacoby Ellsbury and Willy Taveras. In other words, speed players capable of beating out grounders for a base hit, guys who hit groundballs by design. As a purported power bat, Young sticks out like a sore thumb.

While it’s not at all surprising that Young’s plate discipline remains raw, it is a bit disconcerting that he was nearly outslugged by Nick Punto this past season. Whether it be a coaching issue (the Twins are viewed as a team that preaches a “contact-first” approach) or simply the normal growing pains associated with a very young player adjusting to competition at the highest level, Young remains more promise than production at this point. For a guy expected to put a charge in the ball, chopping grounders into the dirt as often as Ichiro and Ellsbury is certainly not advisable.

Not to sound like a broken record, but Young’s age must be taken into account when assessing his production. He will be only 23 years old in 2009, an age where most prospects are just seeing their first big-league action. Via Baseball-Reference, we find that Carl Yastrzemski and Roberto Clemente rank among Delmon’s most comparable players through age 22. To show just how wide of a range of outcomes are possible for his career at this point, Jose Guillen (a former top prospect who never lost his hacking style) also ranks among his 10 most comparable players.

Delmon Young has been something of a disappointment and needs to stop playing a slap-hitter’s brand of baseball, but it would be foolish to consider him a bust at this point. The truth is, there’s a wildly divergent range of scenarios for Young’s career path. It’s possible that his patience never develops and he remains a disappointment, but it’s also quite possible that he re-discovers his power stroke, fine-tunes his control of the zone and establishes himself as a valuable commodity. Given that he has several years of development time remaining, Young must be kept on the fantasy radar screen.