Talk about saving the best for last. Reds first baseman Joey Votto batted .382 with a .440 on-base percentage in August and hit nine home runs and posted a .723 slugging percentage in September. Those second half numbers made him a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate but do they make him an elite player for 2009?

Votto out-performed four of the five projection systems on FanGraphs, failing only to exceed the on-base and slugging percentage marks predicted by Bill James. Of course, Votto exceeded the playing time guess from James, so a case could be make he exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2008. He succeeded thanks to a 25.2 percent line drive rate, the fourth-best mark in the majors. He also struck out at a lower rate than most predicted. That’s a nice combination and it helped Votto across the board.

But as good as the season was, Votto was still a lower-echelon first baseman. Yes, he hit nearly .300 but 10 first basemen batted .289 or higher. Sure, Votto hit 24 home runs but that ranked 14th among first basemen. The only fantasy category he was in the upper half among his positional peers was steals, where he totaled seven and finished tied for fourth with two other players.

There’s no doubt that Votto will be a fun guy to root for on your fantasy team, but unless you think his August average (when he had a .422 BABIP) and/or his September home run rate (HR per every 10.44 AB) is his true talent level, one could make a case for at least 10 other first basemen that should be drafted ahead of him. If a fellow owner wants to draft him in the top 10 rounds or bid $20 or more on Votto, wish him luck and focus on another player from this deep fantasy position.

After an incredible showing in a short stint in September, Cameron Maybin appears poised to take over center field for the Florida Marlins, perhaps as early as opening day 2009. Maybin is an excellent prospect and may be hyped amongst fantasy baseball writers, but I want to offer fair warning: for 2009, Maybin may be disappointing.

(NOTE: I think Cameron Maybin is a fantastic prospect. He’s great for keeper leagues, but for this article I will focus only on what to expect in 2009).

Maybin spent most of 2008 in double-A in 2008, hitting .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 390 at bats. However, Maybin is more known for his stint with the Marlins in September, when he hit .500/.543/.563 in 32 at bats, with 4 steals (and somehow managed to be +3 on defense according to Bill James online).

Maybin’s 32-at-bat stint in the majors should basically be ignored: he happened to hit well over a very, very small sample size. When projecting him for 2009, we should look at the larger sample of his 08 minor league numbers. And those numbers are somewhat misleading, for two reasons.

First of all, Maybin’s .277 batting average was driven by a high .380 BABIP. He hit an average number of line drives (17.6%), but a very high number of grounders, perhaps allowing him to beat out a large share of infield hits. Still, a .380 BABIP is probably unsustainable, meaning his .277 batting average was higher than it should have been.

On the flip side, Maybin’s home park depressed his overall line. While Carolina played fairly neutral in 2008, it has historically depressed homers and hits by about 10% each. And sure enough, Maybin hit .314/.401/.508 with nine homers on the road, but only .249/.356/.413 with four homers at home.

So what should we expect in 2009? First of all, Maybin is both fast and a good base stealer. The Marlins are generally an aggressive team, so expect Maybin to steal a good amount of bases. However, I wouldn’t expect much in the power department – Maybin is certainly still young enough to develop power, but he hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls in the minors this year, and is unlikely to hit many homers in 2009.

Furthermore, although Maybin walked a lot in 2008 – a good sign for his long-term development – he also struck out a lot. While this may not hold him back in the long-term – he’s young enough to be able to improve – it doesn’t bode well for his batting average in 2009. Remember, Maybin only hit .277 in double-A this year, and that was despite posting an inordinately-high BABIP. In 2009 he will be facing much more difficult pitching, and may very well have a hard time posting a batting average of even .250, despite see his speed (see Carlos Gomez in 08).

Maybin would almost certainly benefit from some experience in triple-A, given his age and his propensity to strike out and hit ground balls. His speed, defense, and willingness to take a walk should translate well into the majors, making him at least an adequate player for the Marlins in 09. However, fantasy players should expect a low batting average and minimal power, coupled with a lot of stolen bases (assuming he get on base a decent amount of time).

Maybin is an excellent long-term prospect, but may only help in the stolen base category in 2009.

Remember when Brandon Wood was a top prospect? Back in 2005, he had a ridiculous 98 extra base hits in the California League, posting a .672 slugging percentage (along with a .323 average and .383 OBP). He added three more extra base hits that season in triple-A, giving him 101 XBHs for the season. Not bad for a 20-year-old shortstop.

In 2006 he hit .276/.355/.552 with 25 homers and 18 steals (and was only caught three times) as a 21-year-old in double-A. Excellent, right? Yet many people chose to focus on his 149 strikeouts in 118 games, and glossed over his otherwise-fantastic season.

Then in 2007 he was promoted to triple-A, where he hit .272/.338/.497 for Salt Lake, a notorious hitter’s park in a notorious hitter’s league. Sure enough, his OPS was 100 points higher at home than on the road. And he struck out 120 times in 111 games. To further complicate things, he struggled mightily in 33 at bats with the big league team, hitting .152/.152/.273 and striking out 12 times.

In 2008 Wood seemingly regained his stroke, posting an impressive .295/.375/.595 line with 31 homers (in just 103 games) in triple-A, although he did strike out 104 times. While his OPS was once again almost 100 points higher at home than on the road, he still managed to post a .913 OPS on the road, and he hit 15 road homers as well.

But he once again disappointed in 150 at bats with at the major league level, hitting .200/.254/.327. However, Wood did stroke five homers and steal four bases, although he also struck out in over 28% of his plate appearances.

There are a few things to keep in mind about Wood. First, and most importantly, he’s only 23 years old. That is still quite young, and there is still plenty of time for him to fix the various flaws in his game.

Secondly, Wood actually had two separate stints with the Angels this season. The first time around, he hit .125/.164/.188 with 1 homer, while striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. The second time, he hit .256/.270/.430 with four homers, while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. While this isn’t great, it’s a marked improvement.

Finally, Wood was extremely good in triple-A this year. Even though he played in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, his Major League Equivalent (MLE) was .235/.316/.436 with 22 homers in 408 at bats. He also stole 6 bases. Obviously, that’s not fantastic, but it’s also not bad, especially for a guy who will qualify at shortstop.

Brandon Wood is still very young, and still has tremendous power potential. He will strike out a lot, and therefore probably won’t hit for a very high batting average. However, he’s likely to qualify at shortstop – and perhaps third base – and should hit a lot of homers – and even steal some bases – if given playing time.

Wood could be an excellent late-round flier, as he has a tremendous amount of upside and will likely be given a chance in the fairly near future.

Things did not look good for Chris Iannetta when the Rockies re-signed catcher Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal prior to the start of the 2008 season. But Iannetta took over the starting job in mid-June and delivered 18 HR and 65 RBIs in 333 at-bats. Now, fantasy players are salivating over the prospects of a power-hitting catcher playing full time in Coors Field.

Iannetta prospered thanks to a .240 isolated slugging percentage. He had a flyball rate of 40.7 percent and when he hit the ball in the air, it left the park at an 18.2 percent rate. Iannetta destroyed lefties, batting .275/.398/.550 versus southpaws.

The big red flag surrounding Iannetta is his strikeout rate. He struck out in 27.6 percent of his at-bats last year, which would have ranked 10th in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. However, Iannetta did not have such a poor contact rate in the minors. In 803 at-bats in the minors, he had a 20.7 K% and at Triple-A it was 17.1 percent.

In 2008, Iannetta hit virtually the same at home as he did on the road. He posted an .893 OPS in Coors and an .897 mark in neutral road parks. This was due to a fluke BABIP split, in which he posted just a .276 mark in his home games.

Iannetta should get around 150-200 extra at-bats next season as the Rockies’ full-time starter from the beginning of the season. Those extra plate appearances, along with an expected improvement in his Coors Field numbers, will boost him to the top half of fantasy catchers, with a chance to move into elite status if he can maintain his solid road numbers.

While it’s unknown whether or not he can raise the dead entity that is the Washington Nationals franchise, this much is certain: outfielder Elijah Dukes is one heck of a baseball player.

A former Tampa Bay (still Devil at that time) Ray and a Tampa native, Dukes was selected by the Rays in the third round of the 2002 amateur entry draft. A breathtaking combination of size (6-1, 240) speed and power, Dukes compiled an impressive minor league resume, batting a combined .280/.369/.448. However, a number of run-ins with members of the organization and the law led the Rays to grow weary of Dukes. Tampa Bay swapped Dukes to the Nationals for minor league lefty Glenn Gibson last winter.

In his first year in D.C., Dukes showed why the Nationals were willing to give him a chance:

276 AB, .264/.386/.478, 15.3BB%, 28.6K%, .214 ISO, 13 HR

Dukes displayed the wide array of skills that made him a top prospect, showing excellent patience and power while also swiping 13 bags. His plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who’s just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That’s a pretty valuable player.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Elijah Dukes is one of the most talented young players in the major leagues. Few possess his blend of power, strike-zone judgment and athleticism. I’m not going to speak on his personal issues, other than to say that he’s had more than a few problems over the years; saying anything more would just be baseless speculation on my part. But if he remains on the field and out of trouble, Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lefty Joe Saunders is fresh off of the best season of his career. Given the opportunity to make 30+ starts for the first time in the majors, the Virginia Tech product posted a 3.41 ERA (8th among AL starters) and a 2.07 WPA/LI (11th). Saunders compiled a 17-7 W-L record and posted a 130 ERA+.

However, the are some reasons to expect this Hokie to decline in 2009. Saunders’ Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was 4.36 in 2008, nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. While his control is pretty solid (2.41 BB/9 in ’08, 2.80 BB/9 career), Saunders does not miss very many bats. He struck out just 4.68 batters per nine innings last season, down from an already tepid 5.79 K/9 in 2007. His 2008 K rate was the 10th-lowest among qualified starters. Aside from Saunders and Rockies right-hander Aaron Cook (who compensates with a ton of groundballs), no one else in the top 10 had a FIP ERA lower than 4.09, despite generally good control:

10 Lowest K Rates Among MLB Starters:

1. Livan Hernandez (3.35 K/9, 4.94 FIP ERA)
2. Aaron Cook (4.09 K/9, 3.76 FIP ERA)
3. Paul Byrd (4.1 K/9, 5.14 FIP ERA)
4. Jon Garland (4.12 K/9, 4.76 FIP ERA)
5. Zach Duke (4.23 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
6. Kenny Rogers (4.25 K/9, 5.22 FIP ERA)
7. Nick Blackburn (4.47 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
8. Greg Maddux (4.55 K/9, 4.09 FIP ERA)
9. Jeff Suppan (4.56 K/9, 5.51 FIP ERA)
10. Saunders (4.68 K/9, 4.36 FIP ERA)

When a pitcher compiles so few strikeouts, he is often subject to the caprices of his defense and variance (luck) on balls put in play. Some years, the ball may bounce the pitcher’s way (as it did for Saunders in 2008, who posted a very low .267 BABIP). Other times, a pitcher might not get so lucky. Take Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke, for example. Duke’s peripherals (4.23 K/9, 2.29 BB/9) were pretty similar to Saunders’, yet Duke posted a mediocre 4.82 ERA. The difference between the two? A huge gap in BABIP. While Saunders was the beneficiary of good luck on balls in play, Duke couldn’t buy an out, and had the misfortune of posting a .327 BABIP.

Saunders figures to be a decent mid-rotation starter at the major league level, a guy worth looking at in the later rounds of the draft. But don’t let the ERA and shiny W-L record fool you: Saunders is more Average Joe than Cy Young.

Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Guerrero?

In 2008, he hit a mere .303, with 27 homers and only 91 RBI. Vlad’s .303 average was the third-lowest of his career, and his lowest since 2001. His 27 homers matched last year’s total, and was also the third-lowest of his career. His 91 RBI was the lowest of his career in any season in which he had at least 400 at bats.

Guerrero is not old, but he’s no spring chicken anymore (where does that expression come from?), either, as he will be 33 years old next year. Most sluggers tend to begin their decline around ages 32 or so, and Vlad seems to be no exception. Is Vlad in decline?

Well, yes and no. He’s certainly no longer the same force that he was in his prime – particularly back in 2000-2004. However, he’s no slouch either.

Vlad’s relatively low batting average can be attributed squarely to a fall in his BABIP and a rise in his strikeout rate: Vlad’s BABIP was .314, the lowest since 2005 and the third-lowest of his career, while his strikeout rate was over 14%, after having been 12% or under in every other year with the Angels.

So is this decline, or statistical fluctuation? It seems to be a bit of both. Vlad’s power has been conspicuously down for three years now – he posted ISOs of .248 or higher every year in his career until 2006; since 2006, his ISO has been .222, .223, and .218. So while Vlad’s power is indeed down, it’s not more down than it has been over the last three years.

Vlad’s hack-tastic ways seem to have gotten more pronounced in the last two years: his O-Swing percentage is over 45% for the past two years, whereas it was 40% and 32% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. His strikeout percentage was below his career average in 2007, but above it in 2008. I don’t know if there is much to read into this, besides perhaps the idea that Guerrero getting fewer pitches to hit because of an increasingly-weak lineup around him. His contact rate is down in the last two years as well, albeit marginally (from 83% to 80-81%). His line-drive percentage was also lower in 2007 and 2008 than it was from 2003-2006, although again, the difference was only a few percent.

I don’t often like to talk about RBI, as I believe they are almost entirely out of a player’s control, and therefore can be inferred by a player’s context (how good a hitter he is + his spot in the lineup and his teammates), but I will make note of Guerrero’s RBI total. Namely, in 2008 he drove in less than 100 runs for the first time during a full season in his career. Most of this is because his teammates weren’t particularly adept at getting on base; furthermore, his batting average and slugging percentage were both down. But also, Guerrero’s 2007 RBI total was artificially inflated by an incredibly-clutch performance that year: Guerrero’s clutch rating was a ridiculously-high 2.53 – the next highest rating in 07 was 1.86, from Adrian Gonzalez. In other words, Guerrero’s 125 RBI in 2007 was an abnormally-high total, inflated by an unusually-clutch performance.

So what can you expect in 2009? Well, Guerrero is unlikely to improve, but his batting average could rise if his strikeouts come down – which is a distinct possibility, given the fluctuation of his career strikeout rate (his high total in 2008 doesn’t necessarily seem to be a sign of his decline). His power is clearly no longer at the level it was in his prime, and may indeed come down even further, especially if back issues continue to plague him as they have in the past. While “lineup protection” is a myth, Guerrero’s RBI and runs scored totals could change dramatically depending on whether or not the Angels re-sign Teixeira, who would either be on base often for Vlad to drive in, or drive Vlad in often himself.

From 2006-2008, Vlad hit .319 with one homer every 20 at bats. It seems reasonable that this is approximately what to expect from Vlad in 2009, with the caveat that his power may be down a tick. If Vlad manages to get 550 plate appearances (he’ll likely miss some games due to injury), that would lead to 27-28 homers. I’d say that a .310-25-90 line seems reasonable – with the caveat that with every passing year, Vlad is an increasing injury risk.

The days of Vlad hitting 35 homers are gone, and it’s not too likely that he’ll hit .330 anymore. But he still remains an excellent fantasy outfielder.

Cha Seung Baek may not win you any fantasy championships. But he could be an important part of a championship team.

Some people play in shallow leagues – I mean 10-team leagues, with players from both leagues and relatively few roster spots. However, many of you probably play in much deeper leagues – either you have many roster spots, or more than 10 teams, or you play in NL- or AL-only leagues (or all of the above). Therefore, I think it is important to talk about lesser-known players who may not be great, but may still be helpful. And Baek is the perfect example of such a player.

Baek’s primary selling point is that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. By default, most Padres pitchers are pretty good bets for fantasy purposes, simply because of their situation: they play half of their games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and they get to face weak NL West offenses in many of their starts. As long as you’re vigilant about benching a Padre starter anytime they’re pitching in Coors Field, chances are you can find some good deals in their rotation.

Baek was dealt to the Padres from the Seattle Mariners and posted a 4.62 ERA in 110 innings with his new team. Baek also had a K/BB ratio of 77/30 and allowed 12 homers.

On the surface, those are less-than-inspiring numbers, to be sure. However, Baek’s 4.06 FIP suggests that he may be on the verge of improving. Baek stranded only 67% of the runners who reached base – below league average. He also allowed homers on 9.9% of his fly balls– while this is approximately league average, it’s unlikely that this will rise, and may actually fall, thanks to spacious PETCO park.

Furthermore, Baek managed to get swinging strikes on 9% of his pitches this year – league average is just under 8% for starters. He threw balls 34.8% of the time – league average is 36.5%.

So we’re talking about a pitcher who throws fewer balls than average, gets more swinging strikes than average, and plays half of his game in a fantastic pitcher’s park (not to mention the fact that he plays in the weaker league and gets to face many weak offenses). While Cha Seung Baek probably won’t be a fantasy ace or a top-20 pitcher, he’s likely to be undervalued and an asset to your pitching staff, especially in deeper leagues.

Brad Ziegler had a historic beginning to his career, but he wasn’t the only Athletics reliever to post gaudy numbers and set a record during the 2008 season. Joey Devine, a former 1st-round selection by the Atlanta Braves out of North Carolina State, finally made good use of his closer-worthy stuff after a change of scenery. Devine posted huge strikeout rates in the minors (13.18 K/9), but his control (4.03 BB/9) held him back and he never really got much of an opportunity in several cups of coffee with the Braves from 2005 to 2007. In fact, most Braves fans will probably remember Devine for being the first pitcher in major league history to give up grand slams in his first two appearances.

With the Braves looking for an everyday centerfielder, Devine was shipped to the A’s in exchange for Mark Kotsay last winter. Given his first extended big-league opportunity, Devine would go on to stake his claim to the late innings in Oakland:

45.2 IP, 0.59 ERA, 9.66 K/9, 2.96 BB/9

Devine’s 0.59 ERA was the lowest ever for a pitcher tossing at least 40 innings. While his peripherals were very good and his Fielding Independent ERA was also excellent (1.97), Devine obviously had some bounces go his way. He did not surrender a single home run, something that will assuredly change in 2009 given his fly ball tendencies (38.8 GB%). Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA(XFIP), which uses an average HR/FB rate, we find that Devine’s ERA “should” have been 3.28 once we account for the fluky home run luck.

Devine’s stuff is plenty good, as he utilizes a 93.1 MPH fastball and a biting 81 MPH slider. As Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog shows, Devine’s heater has a solid combination of horizontal (5.29 inches) and vertical (9.3 inches) movement. His slider also gets a ton of horizontal break (5.53 inches) away from righties.

If there’s a long-term concern regarding Devine, it’s his possible susceptibility to southpaw batters. During his minor league career, he allowed a .308 average to lefties, walking 6.80 batters per nine innings. As this photo nicely shows, Devine has a low, almost side-arm delivery that gives left-handers a good long look at the ball. However, in 109 career PA versus lefties in the majors, Devine has posted a .661 OPS.

Devine also missed nearly two months with a strained elbow, which could be related to a timing problem in his delivery. As this photo shows, Devine’s arm is in a horizontal position at “foot strike” (the point at which his front foot lands). Ideally, you’d like the arm to be in a high-cocked/ready (vertical) position when that foot lands. Devine’s timing issue likely puts more stress on his elbow than need be.

Joey Devine is an intriguing talent, possessing a nasty fastball/slider combo that could lead to closing opportunities if Huston Street departs via trade. Keep an eye on the Oakland rumor mill this offseason. If Street leaves, you might want to target Devine as an efficient alternative to bigger-name relievers who will be selected earlier on draft day.

Counting stats can be deceiving. A guy smacks 25-30 home runs, drives in 100 runs, and all of the sudden some are ready to anoint that player as a breakout star. Case in point: Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy got his career off to a blistering start in late 2005, and followed that up with a 100+ RBI season in 2006. However, Frenchy’s very liberal approach at the plate has actually made him a below-average player (in terms of WPA/LI) for the last three years running. Let’s take a closer look at Francoeur’s career to see where he stands following a putrid 2008 season.

Francoeur was called up in July of 2005, and proceeded to rake enough to land on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the caption, “The Natural”:

2005: .300/.336/.549, 4.1BB%, 22.6 K%, .249 ISO, 19.1 LD%, .341 BABIP, 0.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur did legitimately crush the ball as a 21 year-old in the majors, but “The Natural” also received help from a lofty .341 BABIP. Given his line drive rate, we would expect his BABIP to come in around .311 (LD% +.120 is the formula for expected BABIP). If we subtract those 30 points of average, Frenchy is left with a .270/.306/.519 line. Still impressive overall, but clearly pointing toward a need for much improved plate discipline.

2006 would bring with it plenty of regression to the mean, as a reversal of his luck on balls in play and continued hacking conspired to make Francoeur among the worst everyday players in the big leagues:

2006: .260/.293/.449, 3.4BB%, 20.3K%, .189 ISO, 18.3 LD%, .286 BABIP, -0.07 WPA/LI

Jeff’s low, low walk rate managed to slip anyway, and without the hefty BABIP, his production fell considerably. His power also dipped, as his Isolated Power (ISO) fell by 60 points. Further adding to his mess of a plate approach, Francoeur hit a grounder 45% of the time (39.7% in ’05) and he had a sky-high 20 infield/fly ball % (IF/FB%). In other words, he was rolling over the ball and getting jammed with alarming frequency.

Francoeur’s 2007 campaign brought some hope that he would occasionally lay off of pitches in the dirt, low-flying planes and unsuspecting birds:

2007: .293/.338/.444, 6.1BB%, 20.1K% .151 ISO, 19.4 LD%, .342 BABIP, -0.51 WPA/LI

Sure, a walk rate slightly over six is still tepid, but that’s considerable improvement for Frenchy. On the negative side, his ISO fell again from .189 to .151, and his BABIP was rather high. Given his line-drive rate, his expected BABIP was .314. If we take those 28 points off, his line adjusts down to .265/.310/.416. That’s mild, but he was still just 23 and at least gave some sign that he might improve his plate approach to an acceptable level.

Coming into the 2008 season, there were still plenty of people on the Francoeur bandwagon (myself included). As Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan wrote, “Take a player who has top-tier tools (save speed), who has lots of experience at a young age, and who has clearly improved the biggest hole in his game—that’s a player who projects for a significant leap forward.”

That great leap forward must have been into a ditch, as Francoeur’s 2008 season went down as the ugliest of his career:

2008: .239/.294/.359, 6.1BB%, 18.5K%, .120 ISO, 20.7 LD%, .277 BABIP, -2.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

So, Jeff Francoeur’s 2008 season wasn’t quite as gruesome as it first appears. But is he making any strides in terms of his plate discipline, or is he destined to remain an unrestrained hacker?

Frenchy has swung at fewer pitches for three years running:

Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 61.56%
2007: 57.38%
2008: 56%

However, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Francoeur has swung at fewer pitches overall, but he’s done so by swinging at fewer offerings within the strike zone:

Z-Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 85.83%
2007: 80.42%
2006: 76.12%

Frenchy has also made virtually no progress in terms of laying off of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone:

Outside Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 36.67%
2007: 36.7%
2008: 36.31%

So, Francoeur is swinging at fewer strikes while still fishing outside of the zone far too regularly. If anything, it appears as though his plate discipline is actually getting worse. Coupled with a puzzling loss of power (his ISO has dropped at least 30 points each year), it becomes very difficult to recommend Frenchy as anything more than a late-round flyer. He’ll still be just 25 next season, but until he can prove that he has some semblance of pitch recognition, it’s best to let someone else become frustrated while waiting for Francoeur to break out.