Matt Wieters had quite the start to his professional career.

The 5th overall pick of the 2007 draft began the season at high-A ball, where he destroyed poor souls on the mound to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 69 games. He also walked nearly as many times (44) as he struck out (47).

Wieters then took his one-man show to double-A, where the demolition continued. Wieters actually hit better with Bowie, smacking opposing pitchers around at a .365/.460/.625 clip, and blasting 12 homers in 61 games. He continued his impressive plate discipline as well, actually managing more walks (38) than strikeouts (29).

Wieters’s season is eerily reminiscent of another young catching prodigy: Joe Mauer, in 2003. That year, Mauer began the season at high-A ball, where he hit .335/.395/.412. Mauer too was promoted to double-A at mid-season, where he hit .341/.400/.453. Mauer also walked as often as he struck out, an impressive feat for any minor league hitter. The two biggest differences are the facts that Wieters was 22 years old this year, while Mauer was only 20 back in 2003; and that Wieters displayed more power this year than Mauer did in 03.

Fantasy players know what happened with Mauer: he developed into a consistent threat to win a batting title – although his power remains questionable to this day. However, Mauer is a solid comparison for what to expect from Wieters. Wieters began his professional career at a later age than Mauer, but also put up even more impressive numbers than Mauer did. So far, Wieters appears to be Joe Mauer with power.

The question is: how much power? Expect Wieters to hit for a solid average right away, as he not only posted very high averages in the minors this year, but he also showed extremely impressive plate discipline and the ability to put the ball in play. However, I wouldn’t expect Wieters’s power to translate entirely to the majors in 2009. Although he did hit 27 homers (in only 130 games) this year, he hit the ball on the ground a little too often: only 35% of his balls in play were fly balls.

Wieters is still a candidate to hit 10-15 homers and perhaps even approach a .300 batting average (although .280 or so is more likely), making him a fine catcher in 2009. His long-term potential is immense, and he’s tremendously valuable in keeper leagues. He will likely get the call to the majors relatively early in the season (perhaps as soon as April), and he should make an impact from day one. While he’s a good bet to have more power than Joe Mauer, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit 20-25 homers in his first season.

The 2008 Oakland Athletics were just bursting at the seams with intriguing pitching storylines. Aside from jettisoning three-fifths of its 2007 rotation and the bullpen developments of a little-known submariner and a well-pedigreed flame-thrower, the A’s also oversaw the successful transition of a bullpen lifer into a starting stalwart. Justin Duchscherer, a 31 year-old who had started all of 5 games in the majors and hadn’t been taken a regular turn in a rotation since 2003 with AAA Sacramento, managed to post a 2.67 WPA/LI in 2008, 12th-best among all major league starters.

As a middle man for the A’s over the 2003-2007 seasons, Duchscherer struck out 7.4 batters per nine innings while also being stingy with the walks (2.42 BB/9). While “The Duke” has a fastball that wouldn’t get him noticed in a high school game (85.9 MPH in ’08), he was always noted for possessing one of the more diverse arsenals among relievers. While most ‘pen arms rely predominantly on two pitches, Duchscherer throws a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and a changeup. Perhaps intrigued by his solid peripherals and his unusually deep repertoire, Oakland decided to give him a spin in the starting five this past season. The timing seemed a bit peculiar, however, as Duchscherer had just missed the majority of the 2007 season after undergoing hip surgery.

In 141.2 IP, Duchscherer posted a sparkling 2.54 ERA, while posting a WHIP of exactly 1. His control remained stellar, as he issued just 2.16 walks per nine innings. “The Duke” used his full spread of pitches, throwing his fastball just 43.7% overall. He mixed in heavy doses of his 81.7 MPH cutter (29.9%) and his big-breaking 69.9 MPH curveball (24.3%), while also giving hitters an occasional 81.2 MPH slider (1.3%) and an 80.2 MPH changeup (0.8%).

While Duchscherer’s K rate was adequate (6.04) and he limited base runners reaching via walks, there was still a pretty huge discord between his actual ERA (2.54) and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), which was 3.69. “The Duke” benefitted from an extraordinarily low .240 BABIP, a number that will surely climb in 2009. The A’s were quite good with the leather in ’08 (ranking 4th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which ranks the percentage of balls put in play that are converted to outs), and McAfee Coliseum does suppress offensive production , but that .240 mark was the lowest among all starters tossing at least 140 frames. There are also some concerns about the condition of Duchscherer’s hip, as he missed half of August and all of September while dealing with the issue.

Assuming that he’s healthy, Justin Duchscherer should certainly remain on fantasy radars heading into the 2009 season. However, given his solid (but not spectacular) peripherals and his insanely low BABIP, “The Duke” will likely see his ERA rise to a level where he’s more of a useful component rather any sort of rotation front-man.

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, we find that Duchscherer’s most comparable player by age is Paul Byrd, another soft-tosser with a diverse repertoire who didn’t get his chance to stick in a rotation until several years into his career (in Byrd’s case, at age 28). Perhaps that’s an approximate career path for Duchscherer from this point forward: he’ll be useful, but just don’t expect another season with an ERA in the mid-two’s.

Golden Spikes Award winner. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. The next George Brett? Without question, expectations are sky high for Royals third baseman Alex Gordon. Selected out of Nebraska with the 2nd overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Gordon had a brief but spectacular minor league career. He tamed the Texas League (AA) in 2006 while with Wichita:

2006 (AA): 486 AB, .325/.427/.588, 12.9BB%, 23.3K%, .263 ISO

As a 22 year-old, he made mince meat of the league while skipping A-Ball altogether. Gordon displayed plenty of pop and a promising walk rate. His strikeout rate was somewhat high, but it’s difficult to call Gordon’s debut anything other than a rousing success. Following the 2006 season, pundits heaped praise upon the former Cornhusker. In addition to the BA Minor League Player of the Year Award, Gordon was named the second best prospect in the game by the same publication.

Both scouting reports and statistics alike had Gordon pegged for a rookie tour de force, as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system had his worst case batting line at .243/.320/.432. Given his patience and power, Gordon figured to hit the ground running in Kansas City.

While his rookie season was far from a disaster, Gordon’s initial taste of the majors was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t reach that 10th-percentile PECOTA projection:

2007: .247/.314/.411, 7BB%, 25.2K%, .164 ISO, 19.5 LD%, .304 BABIP

The keen batting eye that Gordon displayed at Nebraska and at Wichita didn’t translate as smoothly as expected, and his K rate predictably remained high. The .164 ISO ranked him toward the middle of the pack among third baseman and his line drive rate was solid, though Gordon had a pretty rough go of it versus southpaw pitching (.217/.266/.420).

This past season, Gordon would show a moderate amount of improvement, giving hope that 2009 will be his true breakout campaign:

2008: .260/.351/.432, 11.8 BB%, 24.3K%, .172 ISO, 21 LD%, .314 BABIP

Gordon upped his walk rate nearly five percentage points, while also slightly lowering his strikeout rate. His ISO improved just slightly as well. While the relevance of first half/second half splits can certainly be debated, it seems reasonable to suggest that they might mean more with a young, still-developing player who shows a significant increase in performance. Gordon hit .277/.392/.496 in 167 PA after the All-Star Break before missing time in late August and September with a hip injury. While he hit a robust .273/.370/.491 versus right-handers, lefty pitching continues to be Gordon’s nemesis (.234/.312/.317, 41 K in 187 PA).

While Alex Gordon didn’t get off to the lightning-fast start that was expected of him, it is important to remember that he will just turn 25 years old this offseason, and is coming off of a season in which he showed a solid amount of improvement with the bat. With several years of development time remaining and a broad base of skills with which to work, Gordon looks like a good buy-low candidate.

Usually when a player adds 50 points of OPS to his ledger he sees an increase in his fantasy value. But Nick Markakis saw his OPS go from .847 to .897 and lost nearly $4.00 in production in 2008 according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Markakis saw the reduction due to a 25-point drop in RBIs and a net loss of eight steals. Still, his 136 OPS+ ranks 19th among all players in their age-24 season since 1990 and marks a player that still has room for growth.

Most of Markakis’ OPS jump came thanks to an increase of 38 walks. His BB% surged to 14.3 percent, the 13th-best mark in the majors. None of his other peripherals changed a significant amount, although his FB% dropped from 37.4 percent to 32.9 percent.

Given his track record over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis is a decent bet to post a .300 average with 100 runs and RBIs. The question is what he can give owners in HRs and SBs. His 18 stolen bases in 2007 was a professional best for Markakis and since he was successful on just 10 of 17 attempts last year it is unlikely he will be a threat to steal 20 bags in 2009.

His age-based comps at baseball-reference.com show a mixed bag, with four of the 10 players eventually having at least one 30-homer season in their career. But it’s a depressing list for a player with broad-based skills like Markakis, with early flameouts like Ben Grieve, Ellis Valentine and Steve Kemp on the list.

In 2008, 28 players hit 30 or more home runs and only two had a FB% like Markakis of less than 35 percent – Josh Hamilton and Carlos Delgado. Hamilton had a HR/FB rate of 19.2 percent while Delgado had a 23.3 percent mark in the category. Markakis had a 12.6 percent rate. If he is going to take the next step and become a 30-homer guy, Markakis will have to hit more flyballs and/or hit a greater percentage out of the park. It seems a tall order given his track record in those categories.

I admit it: I have a thing for unexciting pitchers. And Aaron Laffey certainly fits the bill.

But I also think that finding pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money) who have some value is the best ticket to fantasy success. Given the inherent unpredicability of pitching, you can often find decent pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money), allowing you to build a fantastic offensive team by picking offense with many of your high-dollar, early and mid-round picks.

Thus, while Aaron Laffey probably shouldn’t be the ace of your staff, he’s likely to be more valuable than the money you have to spend to get him, or the round in which you can draft him.

Laffey has had a stellar minor league career, although he has gone unnoticed in scouting circles thanks to his, ahem, below-average velocity. Indeed, Laffey’s fastball sits around 87 MPH. However, Laffey has survived – indeed, thrived – thanks to his ability to induce ground balls. Starting in 2005, here are Laffey’s GB percentages in the minors: 67%, 62.5%, 62.2%, and 54.4%. Oh, and Laffey is also fairly stingy with free passes, having issued 2.6 walks per nine innings in his minor league career (although this is artificially inflated by a high walk total back in 2004 – Laffey’s control has since improved).

Laffey’s high ground ball total allows him to keep the ball in the park, thus making up for his lack of strikeouts. You, as a fantasy baseball player, care more about the strikeouts, but hear me out: Laffey may be worthwhile even without a lot Ks.

Laffey had a decent debut in the majors in 2007, posting a 4.56 ERA. However, his FIP was 3.73. He started out 2008 quite well, but tired as the season progressed. He ended up with a 4.23 ERA, but a 4.88 FIP. Most of this was due to the fact that his ground ball percentage was about 10% lower in 2008 than it had been during the rest of his career. This is most likely an outlier – Laffey showed the ability to get more than 60% of his balls in play on the ground throughout his entire career, including in the majors in 2007. If he can revert back to his extreme ground-balling ways, he should benefit from an infield defense that will include Asdrubal Cabrera and may be able to keep his ERA under 4.

Once again, I don’t mean to argue that Aaron Laffey is a particularly great fantasy pitcher. But I think he can post an above-average ERA and WHIP, while perhaps getting a decent amount of wins (if the Indians are as good as I expect them to be). That’s not an ace, but that is a guy who’d make an excellent addition in a deep league, and someone who is likely to be undervalued.

Jonathan Sanchez misses a LOT of bats.

Unfortunately, sometimes that’s because he throws too many balls. But he also induces a lot of strikeouts. And he’s primed to break out in 2009.

Sanchez had an okay year in 2008, posting a 5.01 ERA. He managed 157 strikeouts in only 158 innings, although this came with 75 walks and 14 homers as well.

However, Sanchez’s ERA is misleading: his 08 campaign was actually pretty good, and, more importantly, there are several signs that his 09 could be a lot better.

First of all, Sanchez was somewhat unlucky to post an ERA over 5 in 2008. His FIP was an impressive 3.85, and his tRA was 4.23 (league average is 4.77). Part of the problem was his BABIP: Sanchez allowed an inordinately high .327 BABIP this season. Additionally, Sanchez gave up an extremely high amount of hits in situations in which they scored the most runs: with runners at first and third, batters were 6-for-15; with runners at second and third, batters were 6-for-13; and with the bases loaded batters were 3-for-10 (with three walks). In those three situations, batters hit a combined .395, leading to an inordinately high number of runners scoring.

Furthermore, of the 14 homers that Sanchez allowed, only six were solo shots – despite the fact that 55% of at bats against Sanchez came with no one on base.

In other words, Sanchez gave up far more hits and homers with runners on base than he “should” have, leading to a disproportionately high number of runners who reached base coming around to score. Sure enough, his 67.5% LOB% provides further evidence of this.

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably. He will almost certainly rack up a lot of strikeouts. And, if he can cut down on his walks – certainly possible – he could lower his ERA even further. However, even if Sanchez walks too many, he’ll more than make up for it with a ton of strikeouts and a respectable ERA.

*Thanks to Stat Corner for providing some of the statistics – specifically, swinging strike % and ball %.

Everyone is convinced that Alex Rios is an impact fantasy player. The only question is why. In 2007, Rios scored 114 runs and hit 24 homers. Last year, much of his value came because he swiped a career-high 32 bases, or as many bags as he stole in 2006 and 2007 combined. Can Rios combine his home run output of 2007 and his stolen base totals of 2008 to be a top-10 fantasy guy?

In the first half of last season, Rios completely lost his power stroke. He hit just four home runs in 362 at-bats. But he compensated by swiping 23 bases. In the second half Rios’ power came back. He hit 11 home runs in 292 at-bats although he stole just nine bags after the break.

Rios hit more groundballs than flyballs last year. Also, his HR/FB rate fell to 7.4 percent. But as you can see by the GB/FB/LD chart, Rios hit many more fly balls (the blue line in the chart) in the second half, after his FB% fell beneath his LD% midway through the season.

What does it mean for 2009? Well, it is likely that his poor home run output in the first half was a random fluke. But we could easily conclude the same thing about his stolen base numbers, too. Expect more home runs than the 15 he hit in 2008. But do not expect a repeat of his stolen base numbers. Rios never stole 30 or more bases anywhere in his professional career in this country. A 20-20 season is reasonable. A 30-30 campaign is not.

Yovani Gallardo could be one of the biggest breakout starting pitcher candidates for 2009. The right-hander, who will be just 23 on opening day, appeared ready to assume a full-time gig at the beginning of 2008. However, injuries struck and Gallardo started just four games in the regular season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He did, though, make two appearances – including one start – in the 2008 playoffs. In those two games Gallardo allowed just four hits in seven innings of work. His control was shaky as he allowed five walks to go with four strikeouts.

During the regular season, in his four Major League starts, Gallardo allowed 22 hits in 24 innings of work. He walked eight batters and struck out 20. Three of those starts came early in the season before his injury. Only one start came before he made his playoff appearances. In that one start, he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings of work. He also punched out seven. Of his first 15 pitches thrown in his first game back, Gallardo threw 13 fastballs in the 88-92 mph range and mixed in two curveballs. It wasn’t until his eighth batter in the game that the right-hander threw something other than a fastball or a curveball (It was an 85 mph slider).

In his 2007 season, when he made 20 appearance (17 starts) as a rookie, Gallardo allowed 103 hits in 110.1 innings of work. He also posted solid rates of 3.02 BB/9 and 7.50 K/9. Going forward, Gallardo should have no problems duplicating his previous successes. His 2008 injury – a torn ACL – is not likely to have major, long-term affects on his stuff, which includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up.

The fact that Gallardo remained effective in three appearances after missing almost the entire season speaks volumes about his potential and his make-up – especially considering all three were in high-pressure situations. He is probably not ready to assume 200 innings of work in 2009, but Gallardo should be well rested after missing so much time in 2008 (especially after throwing a career-high 188 innings as a 21-year-old in 2007).

Coming up through the minor league farm system, Pirates outfielder Nate McLouth seemed to fit the dreaded “fourth outfielder” archetype very well. A 25th-round selection in the 2000 amateur entry draft whom the Bucs managed to pry away from a Michigan scholarship, McLouth was viewed as possessing a good (but not great) bat and solid (but not center-field worthy) range. The main complaint about Nate was his power. (Generously) Listed at 5-11, 180 pounds, McLouth did not figure to have the pop to support his playing every day in a corner outfield spot.

Upon reaching AAA Indianapolis in 2005, McLouth appeared to affirm those extra outfielder predictions by batting .297/.364/.401. Nate showed a line-drive bat and excellent base running skills (34 SB, 8 CS) that figured to make him a well-rounded bench player, but the power was lacking (.104 ISO). McLouth got the call up to Pittsburgh late in the 2005 season and actually matched his AAA home run total (5) in just 120 PA with the Pirates, batting .257/.305/.450.

In 2006, Nate essentially filled that fourth outfielder role and had a difficult season, posting a .233/.293/.385 line in 297 PA. His walk rate dipped to 6.3% and his strikeout rate was rather high (21.9%), a surprising development for a guy who whiffed less than 14% of the time at the minor league level. Perhaps he was trying too hard to play the power-hitter’s game: he posted a decent .152 ISO, but it may have come at the expense of some hard swings and misses.

A funny thing happened in 2007. After once again filling the fourth outfielder role earlier in the season, McLouth was given a chance to play on a regular basis in August and September, and he exceeded most anyone’s expectations:

2007: 382 PA, .258/.351/.459, 10.6BB%, 23.4K%, .201 ISO, 16.4 LD%, .301 BABIP

A guy who barely managed a .100 ISO in the International League, McLouth posted an ISO exceeding .200 in ’07. His walk rate also improved, though his K rate crept a little bit higher. He was slightly lucky on balls put in play (his BABIP should have been about .284), but that’s not a huge difference. McLouth’s secondary skills were developing more than anyone had imagined, and he was just about the best base stealer in the game to boot (22 SB, 1 CS).

In spring training 2008, McLouth beat out Nyjer Morgan for the starting job in center field. Nate was a full-time player for the first time in his career, and he made the most of the opportunity:

2008: 685 PA, .276/.356/.497, 9.8BB%, 15.6K%, .221 ISO, 18.5 LD%, .291 BABIP

Nate’s 2.30 WPA/LI ranked 4th among center fielders and 17th among all outfielders, ahead of names such as Curtis Granderson and Vladimir Guerrero. His walk rate remained steady, and he significantly reduced his strikeout rate as well. McLouth’s contact percentages were 85.21% and 83.82% in 2006 and 2007, respectively, but he upped that number to 88.36% this past year. His ISO climbed to .221, which also ranked him ahead of Vlad and Granderson as well as Matt Holliday. Continuing his trend of stellar base running, Nate swiped 23 bases in 26 attempts. With 26 bombs and 23 steals, McLouth turned in a 20/20 season.

Given the opportunity to play on a regular basis and disprove his fourth outfielder status by new Pirates management, Nate McLouth turned in one of the better campaigns among all outfielders in 2008. While his Gold Glove Award was pretty dubious (John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system had him at -40 plays, 35th among CF’s) and he should likely defer center field to rangy prospect Andrew McCutchen, Nate has developed better power than anyone could have anticipated, given his minor league track record.

With two straight years of .200+ ISO’s, a solid walk rate, a reduced K rate and no fluky BABIP, it seems reasonable to think that he can retain this level of offensive performance going forward. Add in his nifty, high-percentage base stealing (he’s now 57 for 62 in the majors, or 91.9%) and you’re looking at a fantasy asset. Heading into his peak years (he just turned 27), McLouth has developed enough offensive ability that he could still be valuable as an everyday player in a corner outfield spot. Who would have thought that when he was slugging .401 in AAA?

Suffice it to say, the 2008 Detroit Tigers fell well short of expectations. While the pre-season predictions calling for 1,000 runs scored were ridiculous, Detroit’s 78-84 Pythagorean Record was legitimately disappointing. The Tigers’ offense was reasonably productive (ranking 10th in the majors in Equivalent Average), but the starting pitchers stumbled to a collective 5.03 ERA, ranking just 11th in the American League.

While the continued disappointment and injury issues concerning star-crossed righty Jeremy Bonderman got some attention, the majority will point to Justin Verlander’s campaign as the most troubling development in the Motor City during the 2008 season. Verlander’s ERA ballooned from 3.66 in ’07 to 4.84 in 2008, a hefty increase. So, was Verlander considerably worse this past season? And what can we expect from him in 2009?

To help answer these questions, let’s take a look Verlander’s peripherals and Fielding Independent ERA’s (FIP ERA) over his three full seasons in the major leagues:

2006

186 IP, 6 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%, 4.35 FIP ERA

2007

201.2 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 74.9 LOB%, 3.99 FIP ERA

2008

201 IP, 7.3 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 65.4 LOB%, 4.18 FIP ERA

Verlander lost some of the K’s that he picked up in 2007 (basically splitting the difference between his K rate in ’06 and ’07) and walked nearly a batter more per nine innings, so his peripherals did slip. However, his 65.4 Left On Base % was well below the major league average (around 70-72%), which explains why his ERA was higher than it should have been given his K’s, walks and home run rate. The main thing to notice here is that his FIP ERA’s over these three years are pretty similar. Verlander’s FIP ERA in 2008 was 4.18. His career FIP ERA? 4.18. That’s certainly useful. But ace-worthy?

It’s also worth mentioning that Verlander’s fastball velocity has progressively dipped each season. It’s not as though he’s scrounging to hit 90 on the radar gun or anything, but he did lose over 1 MPH from 2007 to 2008:

Verlander’s Fastball Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: 95.1 MPH
2007: 94.8 MPH
2008: 93.6 MPH

It’s difficult to say just what sort of effect this will have on Verlander going forward, or if this trend will continue, but it’s a bit troubling for a power pitcher to lose a mile and a half off of his heat before his 26th birthday. While Verlander’s fastball has been getting slower, his changeup and curveball have actually been coming in harder:

Verlander’s Curveball and Changeup Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: Curveball (78.4 MPH) Changeup (81.8 MPH)
2007: Curveball (80.2 MPH) Changeup (82.7 MPH)
2008: Curveball (81 MPH) Changeup (83.7 MPH)

With the dip in fastball velocity and the increase of speed on both his curve and change, Verlander has less speed variance between his pitches. Here’s the difference in speed between his fastball and his secondary pitches over the past three seasons:

2006: Curveball (-16.7 MPH) Changeup (-13.3 MPH)
2007: Curveball (-14.6 MPH) Changeup (-12.1 MPH)
2008: Curveball (-12.6 MPH) Changeup (-9.9 MPH)

It’s an old baseball axiom that pitching is mostly about location and changing speeds. Verlander’s ability to change speeds has eroded by a significant margin since 2006, as his pitches are now coming in within a more limited range of speed. One would imagine that it’s harder to hit a pitcher whose fastball differs 17 MPH from his curve and 13 MPH from his change than it is to hit a guy with a 13 MPH difference with his hook and a 10 MPH difference with the changeup.

Justin Verlander is a good starting pitcher who can look absolutely unhittable at times. However, his peripheral stats and the aforementioned pitching trends suggest that he’s more of a solid starter than an unquestioned star. Verlander’s ERA should revert back to the low-4’s in 2009, but if you’re expecting ace-level production, you may be disappointed.