The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1409 – Biggest K and BB Rate Improvers: Hitter Edition

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April 29, 2025

4/29/25

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

BB% and K% IMPROVERS

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Looking at the biggest K% and BB% improvers as we reach the point where both metrics start to stabilize (60 and 120 PA, respectively)

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Approximately 64 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

4 Comments
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veeckasinwreck
1 year ago

Deep league (32 Teams – 9 H 5 P, 7 Reserves, 4 IL, 1 Minor League Spot).

Hitting (Hits, HR, RBI, R, SB) Pitching Min 15 IP / week (QS, Ratio, ERA, K, Sv+Holds)

Please rank stash players for August/September upside:
Chase Burns, Cristian Javier, Reynaldo Lopez

Please rank poor start players for potential bounce back ROS:
Candalerio, Massey, Vaughn

Thank you!

0
AnonMember since 2025
1 year ago

Justin, I really think you need to back off the whole “in zone contact” fetish. I’ve listened to your stuff for a few years now and I get the idea, I really do. If a hitter swings at a ball in the strike zone, the guys that make contact more often should do better. The problem is. . . .I just don’t see where that’s the case.

Just using FG’s leaderboards, if I search from 2021 to 2025, there are 306 qualified hitters (it looks like “qualified” is 1,000 PA).

Of the top 30 in z-contact% (using Statcast’s #s), only 15 have a wRC+ greater than 100 and only 6 have a wRC+ greater than 120 (8 of you drop it to 119 – Kwan and Arraez are both 119) with a max of 145 (Betts).

OTOH, of the bottom 30 in z-contact%, 22 have a wRC+ over 100 with 6 over 120 (7 if 119 to be fair) and a high of 134 (Belt), and there are some really great hitters just outside the top 30 like Trout (81.0% and 154) and Judge (81.3% and 192).

I’m just not seeing where z-contact% has much bearing on how good a hitter is. EV has a MUCH higher correlation – the only player in the top 36 by EV with a wRC+ below 100 is MJ Melendez at #26 with a 91.7 mph EV and a 88 wRC+. By comparison, of the bottom 36 in EV, only 9 have a wRC+ over 100.

3
Corey2Member since 2021
1 year ago
Reply to  Anon

Interesting observation.

0
Corey2Member since 2021
1 year ago

Is it possible to just create a transcript of these? I can’t make time to listen, but I’m very interested in the content. Even an AI transcription would be nice.

1