The Daily Grind: Sale, Coors, or Contrarian?

My question to you: why would you ever expect to get your bloody black backpack back? It’s evidence to a crime.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Screw Hits

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Maddmaxxx narrowly pulled out a one-point win with the help of Charlie Morton, Adam Frazier, and Eric Thames. It was an oddly low scoring 15-game slate. Only three people (Max and Yisman twice) exceeded 130 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have 14 games tonight on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Just keep half an eye on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. They should be fine.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Chris Sale ($23,300) or Astros stack at Coors Field? If you’re playing tonight’s slate on the straight and narrow, this is the question you must answer. Sale has recorded double-digit strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 outings and looks to be a massive bargain at any price under $25,500. The Blue Jays are weak against left-handed pitching. The win bonus is practically assured opposite Jacob Waguespack.

Ignoring his immolation at Coors Field, Walker Buehler ($21,400) was on an unassailable hot streak. Look for him to recover at home against the Diamondbacks. I find this play interesting because Sale and the Astros are likely to absorb a large share of the pricey plays. Perhaps they’ll be the right moves, but it’s barely contrarian to try Buehler as a viable and valuable Plan C.

Mike Clevinger ($18,400) is a rather dangerous play at this price. It’s unlikely he’ll throw enough innings to keep a dollar-for-dollar pace with Sale and Buehler. However, it’s certainly possible for him to carve through the fleshy Royals lineup.

That’s too much for Kyle Gibson ($17,700) versus the Oaklandeers. Mike Fiers ($15,000) isn’t any better off opposite the Twinkies.

Griffin Canning’s ($17,200) price increased by $900 compared with yesterday. It’s the same matchup with a slightly easier path to the win bonus, but it’s no longer such an obvious bargain.

The Pirates and PNC Park make for a fairly tame rival for ultra-volatile Yu Darvish ($16,900). Yesterday, I finally decided to investigate why the Pittsburgh offense was performing better than expected. Behold, a .316 BABIP led by Bryan Reynolds (.431) and Kevin Newman (.355). Seriously though, check out this page sorted by BABIP. Pretty much every scrub on the roster has BABIP’d out of their minds. Even the pitchers are BABIP’ing. Darvish seems to produce random numbers clustered around the mid-teens.

John Means ($15,800) business. The Rays are slightly lefty-prone and Means has a righty-neutralizing change piece. If you’re looking for somebody practically unowned, this might be the guy to hunt. Rays pitcher Austin Pruitt ($8,000) is properly priced for a Follower. He’s a good bet for something like 10 points which is 1. a bargain and 2. not enough upside to be a wise play in this slate. Then again, if you want Sale AND the Astros, Pruitt’s probably the only path.

Bryse Wilson ($14,500) and Nick Pivetta ($11,800) have the talent to turn in 20 point outings. In both cases, a sub-10 point performance is more likely. I prefer the Pivetta side of the equation even without considering price. Pivetta should probably cost an additional $2,000. Not that this makes him a fantastic play. He’s a brand-name alternative to Pruitt.

Mike Leake ($14,500) is a reasonable lower-mid-tier volume play. It seems to me his a better fit for 50/50 style contests given the high floor and low ceiling.

Let me know about anybody obvious who is missing or incorrectly attributed as a starter. Note, I intentionally skipped Domingo German ($19,700) on the basis of price. I use FDraft to observe who’s scheduled. Lately, they’ve made a lot of mistakes. I’m considering adding another layer of quality control (but would prefer not to).

Favorite Plays: Sale, Buehler, Pruitt, Pivetta

Stack Targets: Waguespack, Peter Lambert, Jhoulys Chacin, Ariel Jurado, Pivetta, Wilson, Ross Detwiler, Shaun Anderson, Wade Miley, Jason Vargas

4. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Buehler, Clevinger, German, and Chris Archer(???) are the top-rated pitchers tonight. I’ll, uh, pass on Archer versus the Cubbies. Values include Sale, Danny Duffy (not listed by FDraft but a decent enough play), Archer, Pivetta, and Clevinger. I think the Sim is greatly overstating Clevinger’s mean with a 5.86 IP projection.

Alex Bregman, George Springer, Trevor Story, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado are the bargains. Story and Arenado are bizzaro cheap too. Jose Rondon, John Hicks, Sandy Leon, Mike Zunino, and Tyler White are listed as the bargain plays. So, those guys are all borderline unplayable, right?

5. Screw Hits

Who needs hits with two outs in the ninth?

So smooth.

This guy still exists.





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hscermember
4 years ago

On the other hand, it would have been best for the 28% of us to not know that Strahm was starting last night.