The Daily Grind: Ray, Godley, Saladino

Agenda

  1. Improving, But At What Cost?
  2. Daily DFS – Ray
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Godley, Miley, Valencia, Saladino
  5. Factor Grid

1. Improving, But At What Cost?

In keeping with some of our recent topics, let’s talk about trading to win in keeper leagues. Last Thursday, I asked for reader input on an ottoneu trade that would have shored up my roster at the expense of a $5 George Springer. One of the prevailing sentiments was that you take the fantasy victory at any cost.

There are two flaws with this premise. The first is that any trade could guarantee you a victory. There are no guarantees in fantasy baseball. The trade in question probably increased my odds of winning from 60 to 70 percent. I ultimately decided that my cheap Springer was too intriguing to dump for a modest boost in the standings. It was a tough to make that decision.

The second flaw comes down to individual preferences. Let’s say a win can be guaranteed. Would you pay a price that would force you to rebuild after the season when you could otherwise contend indefinitely? Some of you are saying yes. Others would rather roll the dice and try to win without the reinforcements.

Fantasy baseball is about the utility* of the user (and sometimes money). These differences in preferences can complicate trade talks. Sometimes, two owners who have every reason to work together on a trade simply don’t match up because of their preferences. Rather than butting heads, it might be best to concede that spending time on talks is non-productive.

*”Utility” is economics jargon for happiness

2. Daily DFS – Ray

Thanks to Paul Sporer. He pinch wrote for me on Saturday. I enjoyed his piece about age bias in fantasy baseball – it’s worth a gander.

There are some days when I consider picking my pitcher with a dart. At the top of the list is Lance Lynn. He eclipses 12 FanDuel points with some frequency, but he’s not an automatic gem. I’m actually intrigued by Robbie Ray against the Mariners. Most of Seattle’s best hitters are left-handed. However, Ray doesn’t have platoon splits in his brief 60 inning tenure. His 2.72 ERA and 2.63 FIP are based upon good fortune with fly balls. His 2.7 percent HR/FB ratio will regress. I’m not buying in traditional leagues, but I think you can get away with one DFS start.

Or you could pay $400 more for Kyle Hendricks. That’s a lot safer.

Stack Targets: Alex Wood, John Danks, Joe Kelly, Matt Harrison, Jorge de la Rosa, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Lohse

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

The GB/FB splits offer few meaty choices today. Here they are:

Mike Zunino and Austin Jackson v Robbie Ray
Chris Young v Matt Harrison
Prince Fielder v Ivan Nova
J.D. Martinez v Nate Karns

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Godley, Miley, Valencia, Saladino

Pitchers to Start: Last week, I was all over Zach Godley as an exploit. He has almost no minor league track record and lacks the kind of imposing stuff that usually leads to a quick rise through the minors. He spun a six inning gem in his debut, and the Mariners don’t possess a scary offense. This year, the 25-year-old was decent in 75 High-A innings and lousy in 14 Double-A innings. Godley is a complete dice roll. He relied heavily on a good cutter in his first outing.

Also consider: Jaime Garcia, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: The White Sox are still the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching. They’re up against a high variance southpaw – Wade Miley. There is about a one-in-five chance that he’ll cough up over a run per inning. Given the White Sox issues with lefties, let’s call it a one-in-seven chance. Chicago’s offense has been better lately thanks to the solid play of Adam Eaton atop the lineup.

Also consider: Adam Morgan, Felix Doubront, Martin Perez, Dallas Beeler, Mike Pelfrey

Hitters (power): Poor Adam Morgan has to survive the Toronto Blue Jays. If the Phillies were thinking ahead, they would have avoided using a lefty against Toronto. Danny Valencia remains widely available despite fantastic results.

Also consider: Jeff Francoeur, Chris Young, Ben Paulsen, Eddie Rosario, Seth Smith, Scooter Gennett

Hitters (speed): Last week I mentioned having a new player to add to the speed section. It’s White Sox third baseman Tyler Saladino. Since taking over for Conor Gillaspie, Saladino has hit .294/.327/.451 with two home runs in 57 plate appearances. He’s yet to steal a bag, but he did swipe 25 at Triple-A (231 PA). He should hit for a decent average, just don’t expect much power.

Also consider: Freddy Galvis

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Beware of Baltimore and Boston tonight. Unfortunately, those are two of the three best parks for power tonight.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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jdbolick
8 years ago

The second flaw comes down to individual preferences. Let’s say a win can be guaranteed. Would you pay a price that would force you to rebuild after the season when you could otherwise contend indefinitely? Some of you are saying yes. Others would rather roll the dice and try to win without the reinforcements.

I prefer to win at fantasy baseball, but the most enjoyment I get is out of “owning” players that I’m excited about. Once Springer is back you will get to enjoy (or anguish over) his box score for years to come, which may have more value to you than winning the league.

Jeff Gross
8 years ago
Reply to  jdbolick

I agree its fun to align these two, but you can’t get overly invested in the guys you want to root for lest you lose objectivity.