The Daily Grind: Happ, Koehler, Porcello, Napoli

Agenda

  1. The Grind Returns
  2. Daily DFS
  3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Porcello, Buchanan, Napoli, De Aza
  5. Factor Grid

1. The Grind Returns

After a one day hiatus, the Daily Grind is back. Yesterday’s absence was a trade of sorts. You didn’t get my advice yesterday, but you will get it on the final day of the season (a Sunday).

This column was born as a traditional fantasy column. While DFS now influences 80 percent of the work here, everything can still be applied to normal fantasy leagues. However, we’ve passed a point where general advice is likely to help. If you feel like my picks below are not tailored to your specific needs, don’t hesitate to reach out via comment.

2. Daily DFS – Happ, Koehler

It could get ugly today. All 15 games are in the evening, and I count roughly 16 exploitable starters. They’ll be listed below. Jake Arrieta is the glaringly obvious ace of the day at $12,300 on FanDuel. The two next most expensive pitchers – Gio Gonzalez and Danny Salazar – are $9,600 and $9,100 respectively.

J.A. Happ would stand out like a sore thumb if his start wasn’t at Coors Field. With an overwhelming lack of aces, I’m not entirely disinclined to give him a shot. It’s his new pitch usage since joining Pittsburgh that has led to success. Perhaps it’s a sustainable brand of success. Of course, those pitches will do less in Denver.

We’re left to count on the Rockies to continue flailing against left-handed pitchers. It’s a risky proposition, but nobody picks pitchers at Coors. As an added bonus, he’s opposed by Chris Rusin. Unlike the Rockies, the Pirates are handicapped against southpaws.

For a couple hundred more, you can go with Tom Koehler. He’s not as talented as Happ, but he’ll face Aaron Harang and the Phillies at Marlins Stadium. The situation is ripe for a strong outing on the cheap.

Stack Targets: Rusin, Tyler Cravy, Matt Wisler, Keyvius Sampson, Harang, Jeremy Guthrie, Sean Nolin, Henry Owens, Matt Moore, Martin Perez, Logan Verritt, Daniel Norris, Chris Heston, Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Ubaldo Jimenez, Alex Wood

3. SaberSim Observations

For the most part, SaberSim likes the usual suspects on the bump today including Koehler (but not Happ). However, the fourth rated pitcher sticks out like a…um…(hey guys, when have you ever seen a sore thumb stick out?). Robbie Ray has a seemingly neutral matchup against an occasionally explosive Dodgers offense. They’re responsible for most of my DFS wins this season (thanks Andre Ethier!).

Ray is projected for about 6.2 innings, seven strikeouts, and 38 percent of the win. I thought perhaps SaberSim hated Wood, but he has the same projection less a strikeout. Something doesn’t add up for me with two good offenses in play. I doubt the pair totals the 23 points they’re projected to reach..

Earlier, I alluded that the Pirates should produce some offense today. It’s one of several reasons why Happ could be worth a dice roll. SaberSim agrees with the offense portion of my analysis. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Aramis Ramirez are the top three hitters of the day. Neil Walker and Francisco Cervelli are also among the top 30. Careful with Walker. He’s failed to find any kind of groove from the right side of the plate.

Bryce Harper’s projection for just .16 home runs today strikes me as a little odd. He’s homered once every 15 plate appearances. So against a neutral pitcher he has a better than 25 percent chance to homer on a given day. Is Jimenez better than a neutral pitcher at preventing home runs. Perhaps, but not by the margin implied by SaberSim. Ultimately, it’s just trivia. We might be able to game SaberSim with a Harper pick, but the DFS sites still list him for a billion dollars.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Porcello, Buchanan, Napoli, De Aza

Pitchers to Start: Over the last month, Rick Porcello has a 3.06 ERA with 8.66 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9. This is the pitcher the Red Sox signed to a long-term extension. Porcello’s recent success hasn’t been flawless. His more recent start lasted six innings. He allowed six runs (five earned). Tomorrow, he’s opposed by the Rays. They offer very little offensive resistance against right-handed pitching.

Also consider: Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly, Bartolo Colon, Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: The Phillies and Marlins have two of the weakest offenses in baseball. They’ll also summon two terrible pitchers tomorrow. David Buchanan has been hammered. His command has declined precipitously. The result is a 8.49 ERA, 5.58 FIP, .380 BABIP, 4.78 K/9, and 4.01 BB/9. It’s all ugly. It will probably stay ugly tomorrow.

Adam Conley has been better, but he’s still exploitable. He has a 4.22 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 8.08 K/9, and 3.12 BB/9. His minor league track record suggests that regression (the bad kind) could bite into his strikeout and walk rates.

Also consider: Ivan Nova, Chris Tillman, Tanner Roark, Williams Perez, Zach Davies, Roenis Elias, Phil Hughes, Brandon Finnegan, Charlie Morton, Jorge de la Rosa, Chase Anderson, Colby Lewis, Felix Doubront

Hitters (power): Mike Napoli bats fifth against left-handed pitching. He’ll see Doubront tomorrow. His .270/.379/.555 slash against southpaws is rosterable in any format.

Also consider: Brandon Crawford, Yangervis Solarte, Danny Valencia, Andre Ethier, Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau, Jonny Gomes, Justin Bour, Darin Ruf, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Coghlan, Kelly Johnson, Michael Conforto

Hitters (speed): Injuries have force the Giants to bat Alejandro De Aza second. So long as they keep him away from left-handed pitching, he’s a solid hitter (.278/.340/.456) with some power and speed.

Also consider: Delino DeShields, Ichiro Suzuki, Darnell Sweeney, Rusney Castillo

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We were stuck with a rain out yesterday, but it should be dry today.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Compton
8 years ago

Hey Brad, what are you doing with Peavy tomorrow @ SD? I’m between him and Hendricks.