The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 26

Agenda

  1. Various Notes
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets

1. Various Notes

Yesterday’s TDG was cancelled on account of some leftover heat exhaustion. A 100 degree, humid day is not the ideal setting to return from a hamstring injury. At least I sweated out my vacation weight…

Alex Bregman and David Dahl were summoned yesterday. Neither debut was particularly impressive. The hype machine is out of control with regards to Bregman. That’s what happens when you control the strike zone and hit for power. He even has five to 10 stolen base speed. Bregman had nothing left to prove in the minors, but that doesn’t mean he’ll dominate the majors from day one.

While Bregman gets all the hype, I’d rather have Dahl on a fantasy roster. He’s a legitimate candidate to go 25/25 over a full season with huge run production. The profile is not dissimilar from a speedier, less powerful Trevor Story. Expect big surface numbers with the help of Coors Field to go with a high strikeout rate. Redraft owners beware – there’s a decent chance he won’t remain in the majors once their current interleague stint is complete. He only received 68 plate appearances at Triple-A.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Saturday’s contest didn’t fill. If memory serves, kidzero was the top out of 11 entries. Tuesdays are DraftKings days.

3. Daily DFS 

Early: The Cardinals-Mets were postponed yesterday. They’ll play a straight doubleheader with the first game starting in the afternoon. The second game isn’t available on DK. Sorry for ya if you wanted Carlos Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Jaime Garcia, or Bartolo Colon.

Late: That leaves us with 14 games in the main slate. FanDuel lists the later Mets game as part of this contest. Top pitchers include Danny Salazar, Kyle Hendricks, Felix Hernandez, Steven Wright, and Chris Archer.

I always have trouble ponying up for Salazar due to his numerous short outings. I’d take him if he cost less versus the Nationals. King Felix was battered and bruised in his return from the disabled list last week. No grazi, not at this price. I’m a big Hendricks fan, but I prefer his FanDuel price ($9,200) over DraftKings ($10,900).

It was fun to ride Steven Wright back when he was cheap. I simply don’t have the trust to pay top dollar for a knuckleballer. Especially against a lineup as potent as the Tigers. Archer is interesting for GPPs since he’s a high strikeout pitcher. There’s always a chance this is the game he throws a 16 strikeout complete game victory. The Dodgers aren’t the most frightening lineup in the game.

Over his last four starts, Chris Tillman has thrown seven innings with FD point totals between 36 and 51. If you want consistent mid-tier production, Tillman is a solid choice opposite the Rockies. While Camden Yards is quite friendly for left-handed power, the Rockies do tend to come up small on the road.

Marcus Stroman’s stuff is largely intact. With the strikeout prone Padres on the other side of today’s matchup, I’m all aboard the Stroman train. He’s gone eight innings in two of his last three starts. The other was a 4.2 inning clunker.

If you like shots in the dark, Tyler Skaggs is making his return to the Angels rotation. Skaggs posted impressive numbers in the minors including a 1.67 ERA, 12.53 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9 through 32.1 Triple-A innings. We’ll see how he transitions to the majors.

Stack Targets: Mike Pelfrey, Nick Martinez, Matt Garza, Dillon Gee, Lucas Harrell, Cody Reed, Matt Cain, Pat Corbin, CC Sabathia, Chad Bettis, Andrew Cashner, James Shields, Doug Fister

4. SaberSim Observations

Our go-to projection tool largely agrees with my assessments. Salazar, Francisco Liriano, Archer, Stroman, and Skaggs round out the top five. I’m less than eager to use Liriano opposite Felix and a homer happy Mariners roster. Sure, it helps that the game is at PNC Park, but it’s not like the Mariners power numbers are from a bunch of barely-home runs.

The Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Trout, Diamondbacks, Twins, Astros, and Athletics are among the top stacks tonight.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s a good day for streaming. I still consider McCarthy a must-own in most formats. Gray and Paxton should be rostered in mid-sized leagues. Zach Eflin appears to be adjusting to the majors. When he debuted, I warned that it can take some time for command and control guys to learn how to use their stuff versus major league hitters. Eflin’s allowed five runs over his last four starts and tossed two complete games. He’s not a high strikeout guy, making him best suited to stream starts.

Barring a breakout, the best case scenario looks something like the good version of Doug Fister. Well, only based on the surface numbers. Eflin throws 93 mph with a high fly ball rate which is very much different than Fister.

Also consider: Adam Conley, Brandon McCarthy, Jon Gray, James Paxton, Mike Foltynewicz, Tyler Duffey

Pitchers to Exploit: Once Red Sox prospect Anthony Ranaudo is back for another whooping, this time pitching for the White Sox versus the Cubs. Ranaudo has shiny minor league numbers, but he’s never successfully transitioned to the majors. He could just be a late bloomer. He’s a command and control fly ball pitcher like Eflin.

Also consider: Luis Perdomo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Moore, Dan Straily, Dylan Bundy, Logan Verrett

Hitters (power): I don’t see Tommy Joseph as a starting quality first baseman, but it’s hard to argue with his lefty mashing to date. He’s carrying a .333/.373/.646 line versus southpaws with four home runs in 51 plate appearances. He’s opposed by Conley.

Also consider: Max Kepler, Ryan Rua, Cameron Rupp, Derek Dietrich

Hitters (speed): This might be the first time all season I’ve had as many base runners are big swingers. Cameron Maybin is the guy I covet most from tomorrow’s matchups. He also happens to be the least available. Maybin bats second for the Tigers. He’s hitting .325/.392/.392 with good strikeout and walk rates. He’s swiped 12 bases in 238 plate appearances. Maybin is day-to-day with a back strain.

Also consider: Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte, Angel Pagan, Denard Span

 





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gootchgootchmember
7 years ago

Hey Brad! Got a UTIL preference today between Naquin (v. Gio) or V-Mart (v. Wright)? Lefty-lefty or cold as ice?