The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 18

Agenda

1. For Whom the Bell Tolls
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. For Whom the Bell Tolls

Yes, I’m back and I’ve returned to action with a Josh Bell slash Metallica reference. Bell serves as a lesson in not overreacting to prospect call ups. We’ve been waiting on him all season because by all accounts, he’s major league ready. He’s even hit for Eric Hosmer-type power this season which is a huge improvement over his previous John Jaso-ish homer pace.

Speaking of Jaso, it was obvious why Bell wasn’t a fit for the Pirates active roster. Jaso and David Freese are having fine seasons, hitting for average, walking frequently, and flashing some power. That profiles reads identically to what’s expected of Bell. Sure, the prospect could outplay the vets, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Prospects usually have growing pains – even Nomar Mazara is slumping now.

Bell also features minus defense at first base. While that doesn’t sound like a problem to fantasy owners, teams generally try to avoid playing guys who have trouble fielding first base. It’s one thing when you’re stuck with Hanley Ramirez, it’s another thing when you have a perfectly functioning platoon and three options to use on a developing prospect.

The moral of the story: be careful who you target with your waiver priority or FAAB dollars. If there’s no obvious path to playing time, it could be because the guy won’t actually be playing much. Teams have become more and more open to giving prospects short tastes of the majors. A promotion to a top guy no longer means he’s here to stay.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

In ancient pre-All Star Break times, jk38wg won with a smashing performance from Jose Fernandez, Justin Turner, Jason Kipnis, and Mark Trumbo. Archaeologists have only just now uncovered his triumph. The leaderboard is updated.

Today we return to FanDuel for another 20 user, $2 contest.

3. Daily DFS 

All 11 games will be played tonight. The action starts with the always elite Jose Fernandez against the usually terrible Phillies offense. It’s going to be very tempting to stop your search for pitching right then and there. Despite never throwing more than seven innings this season, Fernandez routinely posts top point totals. He’s opposed by slumpy Aaron Nola.

Personally, I have a small preference for Corey Kluber in GPPs. Just check out his last six starts – two complete games, two eight-inning outings, and two clunkers. If you get the good version of Kluber at Kauffman Stadium, you’ll be right with the Fernandez owners. And if you get the bad version, you can forget about winning.

Other quality pitchers include Chris Sale at Seattle and Jon Lester versus Steven Matz in Chicago. Kevin Gausman at Yankee Stadium is moderately interesting too. The rare ceiling game could keep pace with Fernandez, but Gausman is usually more of a core performer at best.

It’s probably a bad idea to chase bargain pitching tonight. If you really want a cheapie – and I can’t stress enough how much I don’t recommend that – Brandon Finnegan has a solid matchup against a left-handed Braves offense. The last time Finnegan faced the Braves, he posted 42 FanDuel points. This time around, he’ll have to survive Great American Ballpark.

Stack Targets: Christian Friedrich, Drew Smyly, Tyler Anderson, Ricky Nolasco, Kendall Graveman, Matt Boyd, Wade LeBlanc, Matt Wisler, Mike Leake, Ivan Nova, Nick Tropeano, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Griffin, Mike Fiers

4. SaberSim Observations

Our trusty friends at SaberSim like Tropeano way more than I do. He’s the second ranked pitcher today. Fernandez projects to produce 50.82 FD points while Tropeano is slated for just 39.54 points. Sale, Lester, and Nola round out the top five. My pick, Kluber, is sixth.

For stacks, try the Coors game, Reds, Cubs, or Twins. The players in Colorado are polluting the top of the list.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Reynaldo Lopez may have enough stuff to make it through his spot start against the Dodgers. He posted a delicious 11.79 K/9 with 2.95 BB/9 in 14 Double-A starts. Upon joining Triple-A, regression bit deep (7.36 K.9 and 4.91 BB/9 in two starts). He has quality stuff, but he command profile has yet to catch up. As we’ve seen happen several times this season, Lopez is one of those prospects who controls his walk rate by overpowering minor league hitters. That won’t fly in the majors – at least not for multiple starts.

Also consider: Junior Guerra, Jameson Taillon

Pitchers to Exploit: I’m a huge Blake Snell fan. But not at Coors. Oh, definitely not at Coors. I also like Cody Reed, but he still needs a command breakout. If he’s ever going to have a good game at home, it’ll be against the Braves. I’m still betting against him.

Also consider: Nathan Eovaldi, Vance Worley, Jake Peavy, Tommy Milone, Anibal Sanchez, Tyler Jenkins, Chris Young, Tyler Chatwood, Zach Godley, Kyle Lohse, Tim Lincecum, Wade Miley, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): As is often the case, the power options are plentiful tomorrow. I’m especially intrigued by Hyun-soo Kim and Pedro Alvarez visiting Yankee Stadium against suddenly homer prone Nate Eovaldi.

Also consider: Avisail Garcia, Melky Cabrera, Franklin Gutierrez, Ji-Man Choi, Daniel Nava, Brad Miller, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Gordon Beckham, Adonis Garcia, Jeff Francoeur, Kennys Vargas, Max Kepler, Chase Utley, Hyun-soo Kim, Pedro Alvarez

Hitters (speed): Tim Anderson is somehow only 20 percent owned. I’m not crazy about his skill set, but he’s a leadoff man with speed and non-zero power. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Miley.

Also consider: Ezequiel Carrera, Jose Peraza, Cameron Maybin, Jace Peterson,

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for storms at the best hitters parks.

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