The Daily Grind: Coors, Fiers, Pagan

Agenda

1. Dynasty Pt. 2
2. Daily DFS – Coors
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Fiers, Paxton, Blanks, Pagan
5. Factor Grid

1. Dynasty Pt. 2

Chad and I are walking the tightrope between contending and rebuilding in our 20-team dynasty league. If you want to learn more about the league and some of its quirks, check out yesterday’s Grind (link in section two).

The top 5 teams are paid in this league. We’re currently in seventh place – just 6.5 points back from fifth.  Our goal heading into the season was to condense the talent on our roster. Rather than rebuild via prospects, we wanted to take the fantasy version of the Padres’ reboot. We could try to develop good young players like Dalton Pompey, Andrew Susac, Nick Gordon, and Nomar Mazara, or we could swap them for in packages for current studs.

At least, that was the theory. In practice, we’ve found that most owners won’t play ball – even the half dozen who aren’t pretending to contend this season. We tried to deal Prince Fielder and prospects for Anthony Rizzo. Then we tried swapping Fielder and a spec for Mookie Betts (after his slowish start). Finally, we tired of shopping Fielder and accepted Kendrys Morales, David Robertson, and Freddy Galvis.

We made out biggest managerial mistake over the offseason. The final keeper spot on our roster came down to two players. One was Rays prospect Ryan Brett. Our team was a little shallow in the middle infield at the time. Brett isn’t a great bet to become a starter, but he does have an intriguing mix of speed and pop. If he hits enough, I could see him filling a Ben Zobrist-lite role. The other guy was Alex Rodriguez. Guess which one we cut.

As for lessons, I suppose it comes down to this – sometimes you have to adjust your trade plans to your competition. For example, Mazara continues to flash a high ceiling as a 20-year-old at Double-A. Unless a trade offer comes around for a stud major leaguer, we’ll probably settle back and develop him. I’d prefer to use him as part of a package for a Betts or Rizzo, it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

2. Daily DFS – Coors

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s an all play evening. It’s also a day of aces. If you can find the budget, Max Scherzer has a candy matchup against the Phillies. For entirely non-scientific reasons, I predict the Phils will score four runs against Scherzer. Back when your present author was a wee lad, he used to watch a terrible Philadelphia ball club routinely defeat only good pitchers. Bruce Chen would have carved through those Phillies, but a stud like Hideo Nomo was doomed to failure.

Of course, that’s not the sort of advice you’re here to imbibe. The straight forward play this evening is to load up on hitters in the Ryan Vogelsong–Kyle Kendrick affair. The game is at Coors Field, and they’re two of the worst pitchers available. You’ll need a cost effective starter to partake of both stacks. Might I suggest $8,700 Carlos Carrasco, $7,700 Noah Syndergaard, or $7,200 Ubaldo Jimenez? Yes, I might.

Stack Targets: Sean O’Sullivan, Josh Collmenter, Henderson Alvarez, Colby Lewis, Marco Estrada, Phil Hughes

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

With plenty of stacking options available, there are 42 hitters who could take advantage of a fly ball or ground ball pitcher. Below are some of my favorites.

Garrett Jones, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Chase Headley vs. Colby Lewis
Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, J.B. Shuck, and Geovany Soto vs. Phil Hughes
J.J. Hardy vs. Henderson Alvarez
Dexter Fowler vs. Josh Collmenter
Kyle Seager vs. Marco Estrada

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Fiers, Paxton, Blanks, Pagan

Pitchers to Start: Mike Fiers will pitch in Atlanta. His fly tendencies should be a little less damaging there. Moreover, the Braves lineup is rather limp. Fiers hasn’t been able to take advantage of his high whiff and strikeout rates due to a lofty BABIP and HR/9. He could be a cheap source of strikeouts tomorrow.

Also consider: Anthony DeSclafani, Rubby de la Rosa

Pitchers to Exploit: James Paxton is usually a borderline pick to start. Unfortunately, a matchup against the Blue Jays rarely goes well for a left-handed pitcher. He’ll have to navigate a star studded lineup. His ground ball heavy approach matches up particularly poorly with Jose Bautista.

Also consider: Nick Martinez, Trevor May, Chris Heston, Jordan Lyles, Mike Wright, Mike Bolsinger

Hitters (power): Kyle Blanks continues to swing a hot stick. To paraphrase House Stark, regression is coming. He has a lofty .421 BABIP to go with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate. So long as he maintains his current power, he’ll remain an above average hitter. He’s opposed by CC Sabathia.

Also consider: Randall Grichuk, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Valencia, Rickie Weeks, Jake Marisnick

Hitters (speed): Coors Field offers two paths to offensive value. We usually target power because the park massively increases the output of home runs. However, singles, doubles, and triples also fall with more frequency. That’s why you should consider using Angel Pagan. The high contact hitter is liable to pop a couple hits.

Also consider: Cory Spangenberg, Alejandro De Aza, Nori Aoki, Kevin Kiermaier, Billy Burns,

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Denver is the only location with any rain risk, and it looks pretty safe. Has anyone else noticed that it’s taking longer than usual for the weather to get hot?

The Link.

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