The Daily Grind: 9-6-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. xBABIP and xHR
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Sunday Picks
  4. Table

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1. xBABIP and xHR

Here we have an excellent post by Daniel Schwartz. It’s packed with information, mostly about xBABIP, xHR, and shifts. Take the time to put a few of these details in the back of your brain – they’ll serve you well.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Seven games are early.

Drew Smyly has a tough matchup against a heavily right-handed Orioles lineup. Smyly possesses large platoon splits as do many Baltimore hitters.

The Scott Wars, specifically Scott Feldman and Scott Kazmir, will kick off today. Feldman has a tough matchup against a platoon happy A’s roster. Kazmir’s struggled in recent outings, although I’m pretty sure he’s fine. You can quote me on that.

The Pirates have a few lefty mashers, including an MVP candidate. They’ll face Felix Doubront at Wrigley Field, so there is potential for hits and power.

Late: We’re left with eight late.

J.A. Happ is reliably mediocre, and he’ll give the platoon advantage to whichever Red Sox want to aim at the Green Monster. Or you can take the Mystery Box, aka Clay Buccholz.

Not that I really recommend stacking the Twins offense, but Cory Rasmus will probably pitch three or four innings. He’s also not all that great with a history of walking a lot of batters. He’s looked good out of the pen, but I wonder how he’ll transition to the new role.

Nick Martinez is the Ranger de los Dia. Did I do that right? I never took Spanish. In any case, you should know what you’re getting into – too many walks and too few strikeouts.

Joe Wieland spent a long time on the disabled list, but he’s finally back after missing most of the last three seasons. I’m not sure he’s a true exploit, but I figured I’d mention him with such a long layoff in play. He’s thrown about 38 minor league innings, so there’s probably still some rust.

3. Sunday Picks

Pitchers to Start: James Paxton – insofar as he’s available – appears to be the top pick to start tomorrow. He’ll have to contend with Globe Life Park, but that comes equipped with a lousy Rangers offense that just surprisingly lost its manager. In one sense, lousy means ‘covered with lice.’ I think I’d be more likely to strike out if lice were involved.

Derek Holland pitched well in his 2014 debut – a shock for Rangers fans grown accustomed to terrible pitching. He’ll face Paxton and a heavily left-handed Mariners lineup. This could be a surprise pitching duel.

Don’t quote me, but I’m pretty sure Jason Hammel is usable again. I’m trying him in one of my leagues against the Astros. Those Houstonians do love to strike out.

Pitchers to Exploit: Hector Noesi is the latest righty to face the Indians stack of lefties at Progressive Field. Noesi’s settled down to a reliable sort of mediocrity. I think he has even more ceiling, but he’s not near it at this time.

Brad Hand has a low strikeout rate, above average walk rate, and he usually doesn’t last very deep into the game. The Braves his lefties well, which is just another nail in the coffin. You can remove one of those nails due to spacious Marlins Stadium.

Twins lefty Logan Darnell has the incredibly unfair job of taming the Angels lineup. Even at Target Field, this will be a difficult task for the southpaw. His minor league numbers suggest he could be league average – I’ve never seen him pitch.

Trevor Cahill walked six batters last week, which is a perfect reminder that he struggles with command and control at times. He’ll face the Dodgers.

If the Padres only had some offensive fire power, they could benefit from a game against Franklin Morales.

Hitters (power): I guess Yangervis Solarte and Yasmani Grandal are the guys to target at Coors.

Maybe Joc Pederson will start tomorrow. I hope he does.

The A’s righty stack will be out to play against Dallas Keuchel. That’s Jonny Gomes, Derek Norris, and Nate Freiman among others.

I finally get to recommend C.J. Cron. On the other side of this one is Trevor Plouffe.

Maybe Chris Johnson will do something useful against Hand.

Hitters (speed): I’m going to guess that Dalton Pompey will start and bat second – mostly because I need a speed guy to mention.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

New York, Washington, and Boston have about a 50 percent chance of scattered storms. The Rangers could see an early storm too, but it doesn’t look like their game is threatened.

The Link. Sorry, no weather ratings today. I’m pressed for time.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.





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ABSkippers
9 years ago

for 5×5 H2H playoffs week 2, do you like 2 start Hector Santiago (@ TEX, vs. HOU), 1 start Andrew Cashner (@LAD) or 1 start Phil Hughes (@ CHW)?