The Daily Grind: 8-31-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Yelich
2. Daily DFS
3. Monday Picks
4. Table

1. Yelich

Our good friend Jeff Sullivan wrote an ode to Christian Yelich on Friday. Yelich was a preseason favorite of mine and he’s slightly exceeded my bullish expectations. He’s a guy I have pegged to improve consistently over the next few seasons. The biggest hole in his game is a 21.3 percent strikeout rate. It’s not exactly supported by his decent 7.0 swinging strike rate. I expect both numbers to crater in time. His swing can support a whiff rate below five percent with a strikeout rate around 12 percent. Basically, I think he’ll soon be a poor man’s Michael Brantley. Yelich doesn’t have the size to generate as much leverage as Brantley, but the rest of his skill set could be comparable. Marlins Stadium isn’t anyone’s friend, but it’s not hurting Yelich due to his spray approach.

2. Daily DFS

Early: J.A. Happ throws the occasional clunker, although the Yankees don’t make for an ideal stack. Their top right-handed hitters just aren’t very potent.

Ricky Nolasco is pitching at Camden Yards. He’s been extremely hittable this season including a mild bout of gopheritis. If he’s allowing home runs are Target Field, watch them fly in Baltimore.

These days, Clay Buchholz either looks superb or terrible. There’s no predicting it. Any play involving Buchholz is a pure gamble, especially since the Rays offense is neither good nor bad.

Nick Martinez is today’s Texas Target brought to you by the State of Texas, where everything is bigger. Even injury stacks.

Late: Six games can be called “late.” There is a distinct lack of obvious stacks.

Eric Stults is the man to target with the Dodgers on the other side of the matchup. Some of their elite right-handed batters were dirt cheap on FanDuel as of Friday (I’ve had minimal internet since then). I assume they still are inexpensive. Stults has been homer prone, but he has Petco Park on his side today.

I’m a fan of Chase Anderson, but it’s time for the Diamondbacks to consider easing his workload. The righty has started to walk more batters, which is never a sign I like to see.

Nate Eovaldi isn’t a traditional stack option, but he consistently allows a run every other inning, including a few home runs.

3. Monday Picks

We’ll have 12 games for Labor Day, so the pickings aren’t too slim. Except that a lot of great pitchers are going tomorrow, so the waiver wire options are limited.

Pitchers to Start: If you don’t mind a lack of strikeouts, you could opt for a Henderson Alvarez start against the Mets. Even if you factor in regression, he should provide solid rate stats and a chance for a victory.

I like Drew Smyly’s matchup against a Red Sox lineup that mostly lacks right-handed power. Smyly has ugly platoon splits, but Tropicana Field and the Rays defense could help get those more under control.

Pitchers to Exploit: Jacob Turner’s first start with the Cubs could have gone infinitely better. I still love this acquisition for the Cubs, but it might take more than a start and a couple relief appearances before they can reclaim him. The Brewers face him tomorrow.

An 11 day hiatus yielded a strong outing for Jason Hammel last week. This time around, he’ll face the left-handed Mariners. I don’t have any read as to why Hammel has struggled with Oakland. My best guess is it was just a fluke/adjustment period and now Hammel is undervalued.

Franklin Morales mostly does not have the platoon advantage against the Giants. Oh and the game is at Coors Field. That’s just swell. I still wish they would use Morales out of the pen simply because any competitive Rockies roster would. There have to be more interesting players to test in September.

Tomorrow’s Texas Target, brought to you by Texas, is Colby Lewis. Get those left-handed Royalists.

Hitters (power): Michael Morse is around on some waiver wires. He’s a good target at Coors Field.

Seth Smith, an all-season pick. He’ll see Trevor Cahill.

I guess Dustin Ackley and Kendrys Morales are the plays in Seattle. I picked them both up for $2 in ottoneu. I don’t know why.

Hitters (speed): At least one of Norichika Aoki or Jarrod Dyson will start.

Mookie Betts should get to exploit the platoon advantage against Smyly.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Pittsburgh has a 60 percent chance of scattered storms, which makes it the biggest risk of the day. Kansas City has just a 30 percent risk, while Baltimore will see a growing threat after the start of the game.

The Link. The table would seem to indicate we will see an extreme number of home runs today.

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