The Daily Grind: 6-13-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Fun with Numbers
2. Daily DFS
3. Saturday Picks
4. Table

1. Fun with Numbers

You need about 60 to 100 points in order to win the FanDuel Squeeze. The payoff for your $2 entry is a whopping $2,000, but you’re also competing against 10,000 rosters. It’s the baseball version of the lottery.

Let’s say you need 80 points for a chance at the $2,000 top prize. That breaks down to a little over 2.25 points per $1,000 spent. Interestingly, there’s a split between hitter and pitcher values on FanDuel. A typical hitter will average about .8 points for $1,000. Pitchers average closer to 1.4 points per $1,000. This implies that it’s more efficient to invest in pitchers.

Of course, there is a distinction between average and range. Lonnie Chisenhall recently had a 27 point game, which is around the highest total I’ve seen for a hitter. Pitchers usually tap out around 23 points for a nine inning, 10 strikeout shutout win. Chisenhall cost less than one-third of what Kershaw costs today, so hitting that hail mary was substantially more valuable.

I guess the moral of the story is that pitcher points are substantially more predictable than hitter points. Unfortunately, even if your pitcher has a stud outing, you still need to find about 60 points from your hitters.

2. Daily DFS

It’s all late today. Watch out for rain on the East coast.

Ubaldo Jimenez either has control of his sinker, or he’s missing the strike zone with everything. There’s not much of an in between with him. You’d expect more ground balls from a guy with such a filthy sinker, but no dice. The Blue Jays high octane offense can pummel any pitcher.

The Tigers may have one of the most right-handed offenses in baseball. They’re still the sixth best team against right-handed pitching, and Kyle Gibson is particularly hittable. On the other side of the matchup, the Twins have a few guys who can handle left-handed pitchers like Drew Smyly.

In two starts, Jeff Locke has a terrible ERA and good peripherals. His Triple-A numbers were lousy, so I’ll bet on the ERA today. Of course, the Marlins offense starts and ends with one man (not really).

The Athletics have an impressively well-constructed ball club. David Phelps may have a tough time working through the order.

Nick Tepesch is coming off two terrible outings. The Mariners are both mediocre AND short-handed, which can be read two ways. M’s hitters should be cheap. Tepesch might also get through this one.

3. Saturday Picks

Pitchers to Start: If you like to roll the dice, Christian Bergman will play at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Unfortunately, you can’t expect strikeouts. At least he also limits walks.

Zack Wheeler is coming off a bad outing against the Giants. Tomorrow is a friendlier matchup against the Padres.

As usual Charlie Morton is startable if you don’t mind a low strikeout total. Last time around, he threw a gem.

Pitchers to Exploit: As previously mentioned, the Royals offense gives few pitchers indigestion. Against Hector Noesi however…

The Cubs face Phillies swing starter David Buchanan. Like Kansas City, Chicago’s offense is unimpressive – at least against right-handed pitching.

T.J. House has a fascinating stat line. A 64 percent ground ball rate and 33 percent HR/FB ratio are both pretty crazy. House is opposed by Jake Peavy, who’s been exploitable in his own right.

The Pirates have a couple notable hitters who can get to Randy Wolf.

The Rangers shell of a lineup will face Erasmo Ramirez tomorrow. He has a 5.97 ERA, but he might have been a touch unlucky since his FIP rests at 5.95 (that’s a joke).

Tony Cingrani has the not-so-desirable job of retiring the left-slaying Brewers.

Hitters (power): Kole Calhoun is floating around a few leagues, and he bats leadoff against righties.

It’s a Jonny Gomes day.

Of the Cleveland lefty-stack, David Murphy remains widely available.

Adam Lind and Juan Francisco remain easy recommendations against most right-handed pitchers.

Hitters (speed): Leonys Martin could swipe a base against Ramirez.

Tommy La Stella remains a worthwhile pick in my book. He’s not really a speed guy though.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Baltimore, and Atlanta all carry about a 50 percent chance for storms.

The Link. Lots of yellow tonight. I prefer the extremes.

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