The Daily Grind: 4-8-12 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Advantages, disadvantages to stacking
  2. DFS plays
  3. Wednesday picks for the normal guys
  4. A table with which you are familiar

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1. Advantages, disadvantages to stacking

Stacking is a common strategy in DFS. Put simply, it means that you play a group of hitters from the same lineup, usually some combination of the first through sixth batters. The advantage to such a strategy is a high reward roster. If the lineup you chose hits it big, you’ll earn extra points through runs and RBI. The disadvantage is risk. If the lineup you targeted is merely decent (or worse), you’ll be left with tepid production.

Deep tournaments are the time to maximize risk and reward, so stacking is almost a must. At the other end of the spectrum are 50/50 tournaments. A typical 50/50 might have 90 participants with the top 45 doubling their money. Coming in first place doesn’t do you any credit, so it’s better to diversify with a well-rounded, value driven roster.

2.DFS picks

Early: Only four of 14 games today are early. Most of you will be playing with the night crowd. If you’re mixing in these early ones, Ivan Nova, Kyle Lohse, and Tim Hudson are pitchers to target. Guys who might be more exploitable include Martin Perez, Wei-Yin Chen, Kyle Kendrick, and Trevor Cahill.

Late: Here’s the cheesy crust of the day; 10 games will be played this evening. Let’s look at some possible hitter stacks.

The Blue Jays face mediocre lefty Brett Oberholtzer, which makes them an easy target for a stack. Of course, you’ll need to save money for Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion by scrimping elsewhere.

Lance Lynn traditionally struggles against left-handed batters and there are a couple choice lefties in the heart of the Cincinnati lineup.

The White Sox keep going against mediocre pitching in solid parks. Despite knowing that their overall offense is poor, I can’t help but to attack the stack. Unfortunately, they’ve yet to payoff for me. Today they face lefty Franklin Morales at Coors Field.

The Mariners have been weirdly kind as a stacking team this season (except for that random cancelled game). I assume the roof will be closed tonight as they face Hector Santiago.

Since Henderson Alvarez only lasted three innings in his first start, you can try the Nationals lineup against him. Even if he starts off well, Alvarez may tire in the middle innings.

3. What’s there tomorrow

Everybody plays tomorrow and it’s split between early and late games.

To Start: I mentioned Eric Stults and Zach McAllister yesterday. Rain pushed them back a day, but they’re still fringy.

If there was ever a time to give Jesse Chavez a spin, it’s against the Minnesota Twins.

Want to take a big risk? Trevor Bauer is starting against the Padres. I’ll probably be going against him, but some of you might like the young upside.

Ervin Santana debuts against the Mets tomorrow. Snag him while he’s snagable.

To Exploit: Look to Phil Hughes. Make him prove he’s a starting pitcher.

Neither Jake Odorizzi nor Jeremy Guthrie are particularly impressive in my eyes. Neither pitcher is bound to implode, but they’ll probably allow three or more runs over six innings.

Erik Johnson is a guy I’d like to recommend, but in Colorado? Against Colorado? That’s an exploit waiting to happen.

Lucas Harrell AND Brandon Morrow in the Toronto Homerlands. Gimme.

Brewers hitters hit bombs. Roberto Hernandez gives up bombs. End of story.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The games in Cleveland and Chicago will be cold, but the rest of the league will enjoy decent temperatures and clear conditions. It’s a good night for April baseball.

The Link. Based on weather and park factors, there are five green lights and a bunch of other nice options. Only two of the green lights are night games. The Cubs park is notoriously stingy in April and I probably should have marked it as red. San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Cleveland look to have the best conditions for pitching.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.





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chri521
9 years ago

Brad – you mean *Henderson Alvarez right? In large # of games (late) vs. early # of games, do you find any difference in how hard it is to money? I’m assuming less games = more people picking similar rosters so harder to win a 50/50 or double up?