The Astros Bullpen: Depth Acquired, Closer to be Determined

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Closer/s:

The Houston Astros made a concerted effort to strengthen the backend of their bullpen this past Winter, but even with all that spending, the ninth-inning still needs the Spring to be officially sorted out. The Astros’ shelled out $18.5 million over three-years to sign right-hander Luke Gregerson, so he will presumably get the first crack at the ninth-inning role, but we shouldn’t count out Chad Qualls until an official announcement is made.

Luke Gregerson

In 2014 for the Athletics, Gregerson posted a 2.12 ERA (3.24 FIP) with a 1.01 WHIP and a 20.8% K% in 65 trips to the bump. But in 11 opportunities to save games last year Gregerson managed to successfully convert only three. And over the course of his career, the right-hander is only 19-of-51 in save chances. (Edit: Should be noted that not all blown saves occurred in the ninth inning) In terms of offerings, it appears as if Gregerson lost some steady zip on both his fastball, slider and change since 2009. Additionally, his ability to induce swings-and-misses (13.3% SwStr%) was still above league average for relievers last year (10.5% SwStr%), but that too has been on the a decline in each of the past three seasons. There is no doubt that Luke Gregerson is a great depth addition to the Astros’ bullpen, but mixed results in high leverage situations along with the dip in velocity and ability cause hitters to miss leads me to believe he is far from a lock to be the closer come Opening Day.

Chad Qualls

Among sexy names on your reliever rankings, you may find Chad Qualls’ at or near the bottom, which I don’t exactly think is fair — and could be good for those of us “not paying for saves” on draft/auction day. The soon-to-be 37-year-old is a sinker/slider guy who loves to induce the groundball. He doesn’t fan a ton of hitters (20.2% K%), but his K-BB% of 17.8% looks fair because Qualls failed to allow the free pass in ‘14 (2.4% BB%). His 3.33 ERA (3.13 FIP) along with the 1.15 WHIP isn’t all that attractive, but he does have the ability to close out games. He secured 19 saves in 25 chances last season and is 70-for-120 in save opportunities for his career. You can’t count him out just yet.

The Setup Men:

Chad Qualls /Luke Gregerson
Pat Neshek

One of Gregerson or Qualls will likely fall back into seventh or eighth-inning duties along with Pat Neshek. The Astros also added right-hander Pat Neshek to bolster their bullpen this past offseason to a two-year, $12.5 million deal. Neshek is coming off of the best year of his career. He posted a 1.87 ERA (2.37 FIP) with a 0.79 WHIP and fanned more than 26% of the batters he faced. He nailed the first strike (67.1% F-Strike%) and pounded the zone (54.7% Zone%) at some of the best clips of his career. Neshek switched up his pitch mix in ‘14 and saw a slight spike in velocity on his two primary offerings. Due to the strikeouts and role in the ‘pen, Neshek should find his way towards the top of your middle reliever rankings should you play in leagues that account for holds.

Everyone Else:

Josh Fields
Tony Sipp
Will Harris
Jake Buchanan
Kevin Chapman
Samuel Deduno

The remainder of the Astros’ bullpen in an interesting group. Josh Fields is a darkhorse name to keep tabs on. Fields is entering his age-30 season, so he’s not exactly a prospect anymore, but his fastball hits 94 on the radar and induces swings-and-misses at an 11.4% clip. He backs up the heat with a curve and change the come in at an average of 16 mph less, which is definitely a plus for his 30.3% K%. If Fields can stay healthy he could be a fine target in your deeper holds leagues. Tony Sipp is somewhat the Josh Fields equivalent but from the other side of the rubber. The left-hander posted a K% North of 30% last season and picked up 11 holds for the Astros while posting a 3.38 ERA (2.93 FIP). The ‘Stros claimed Will Harris off of waivers who had an amazing finish to his Diamondbacks career, so he could be a nice source for strikeouts, but his ratios aren’t all that pretty. Jake Buchanan and Kevin Chapman are two of the younger guys that could get some work out of the bullpen, but may not have too much fake value. Deduno seems like the long man out of the ‘pen who could make some spot starts if necessary.