Statcast Sprint Speed vs Spd Score: Who’s Faster & Who’s Slower?

Yesterday, I took the first dive into the intriguing waters of Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric. After comparing correlations with other speed-related stats to Spd Score, I now want to see which players are actually faster and slower than Spd would have use believe. Because Spd uses some context-dependent metrics, it could sometimes give us a false impression of a batter’s true raw speed.

I’m proud to announce that I have calculated z-scores for the first time! I’d like to thank my mom, dad, and high school math teacher for filling me with such knowledge. Just kidding. It was all Jeff Zimmerman who explained it to me because my stats classes left my brain many, many years ago. So we’re looking at the hitters with the largest difference between z-scores after comparing each hitter’s Spd Score and Sprint Speed to the population average.

In my population, league average Spd was 3.81, while Sprint Speed clocked in at 27.05. Also included in the table is SBA/TOB, a proprietary metric I developed and share in my eBook Projecting X 2.0. It’s a measure of how often a batter attempts a stolen base.

This group posted significantly better Sprint Speeds than Spd Scores. Note that every single one of them posted an above average Sprint Score, but a below average Spd. That’s partly because this group has rarely run, which is a big component of Spd. But perhaps given the above average Sprint Speeds, maybe they should run a bit more often?

Up at the top is Marcell Ozuna, who Spd would convince you is slow as molasses. But that’s not true! He actually possesses above average speed. If you dig back into his minor league numbers, you’ll see that he stole as many as 17 bases all the way back in 2011, but he hasn’t swiped a base successfully since 2015! So he’s clearly lost any desire to run. That said, it would appear that he has decent enough speed that a five to 10 steal season could appear out of nowhere.

Dansby Swanson was a reasonable candidate to go 10/10 this year, but he’s been a complete bust instead and has attempted just one steal. As a result, his Spd score has plummeted from the 5.0 to 6.5 range all the way down to just 2.3. But, of course, he didn’t actually lose his foot speed overnight. He still has the speed to swipe 10 bags, but he hasn’t been on base very often this year, and when he has, he has been unwilling to try his hand at taking another base.

Carlos Correa stole 14 bases during his 2015 debut and another 13 in his first full season last year. He seemed like a shoe-in for at least a 20/10 season again this year, but he has attempted zero steals. That sudden lack of interest in running might have something to do with the fact that the Astros are easily leading baseball in runs scored. Why potentially run into an out on the basepaths on that team?! It’s a good nugget to keep in the back of your mind when preparing for next season’s drafts — Correa still possesses above average speed, so those steals could quickly return.

Woah, I would have never guessed that Scott Schebler’s Sprint Speed was so high. And heck, he stole upper teens bases in 2012, 2013, and 2015! Imagine if he was running as often as his Sprint Speed suggested to go along with the homers. He could be flirting with a 30/15 season.

Clearly playing half his games at Coors Field reduces the need to attempt a steal, but Trevor Story very obviously has the speed to steal 20 bases. His steals total is seemingly less likely to rise than others on this list because of his home park.

Thank the steal Gods for Jedd Gyorko’s five steals, because you’re unlikely to get many more. These were actually his first steals since 2014! And for good reason. His Spd Score jumped because of the sudden interest in swiping bases, but he remains painfully slow.

Ha, even a 1.4 Spd Score overrates Albert Pujols‘ speed!

With just about average foot speed, we’re unlikely to see double digit steals from Joey Gallo over a full season anytime soon. Sure, he swiped 15 bases back in 2013, but was at just seven in 2014, five in 2015, and three in 2016. Did Joey forget how to follow the trend? He was due for just one steal this year!

Somehow Travis Shaw, Yadier Molina, and Chase Headley all drank the steals juice, but their Sprint Speed suggests this won’t last.

We know that Paul Goldschmidt’s steals aren’t due to his speed, so it’s no surprise to find his name on here. Instead, he’s just an excellent basestealer, succeeding nearly 81% of the time.

I decided to end this list with Trea Turner just to point out how hilarious it is that he’s “overrated” by Spd. This is because he only ranks eighth in Sprint Speed, but second in Spd, well ahead of third place. This is primarily because of his absurd SBA/TOB, which is easily the highest among all hitters in my data set.

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From a future projections standpoint, I’m thinking that perhaps a player with high Sprint Speed who leaves a team that doesn’t run often and joins one that does run frequently, would really benefit in the steals department. That’s where Sprint Speed could help us identify the fast guys who might start to steal if he lands in a better managerial tendency situation.