ROS Outlooks for Outfielders Traded to Playoff Contenders

Monday’s MLB trade deadline was an absolute whirlwind. I’m sure you can only imagine the buzz and flurry of activity behind the scenes of sites like FanGraphs that provide immediate analysis. It’s exciting, yet stressful. Everyone must be on their A-game so that they don’t miss a thing and cover every angle. Shoutout to my colleagues here for their great work over the last few days. In case you missed it, here is our Fantasy Impact Trade Tracker.

The purpose of this piece will be to delve into six outfielders with 15- and/or 12-team relevance who were just traded. Not all these hitters have increased fantasy value, nor are they necessarily slated for more playing time. The one thing they all have in common is that they were targeted and acquired by teams currently in the hunt for a playoff spot with a little less than one-third of the season to go.

Here are the six outfielders. Included below are their updated ROS standard 5×5 projections (and wRC+ projections), courtesy of Jason R.R. Martinez’s Depth Charts (FGDC). I used our Auction Calculator to compute their ROS values via FGDC for 12-team standard 5×5 roto leagues, such as the NFBC Online Championship (OC).

 Heliot Ramos: Biggest Value Increase

Rest-of-season projections may not reflect it, but Ramos is the hitter from this group with the biggest increase in fantasy value, moving from sleepy, pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to the big stage in the Big Apple, as an important contributor to the Bronx Bombers. The right-handed hitter who turns 27 next month made his Yankees debut on Tuesday as the cleanup hitter against a right-handed pitcher. Ramos is very likely to hit in a higher spot against southpaws, possibly third or perhaps even leadoff. Over the course of his career, Ramos is a much better hitter against lefties (.222 ISO, 133 wRC+) than against righties (.140, 95).

Ramos hit 22 home runs in 518 PAs in 2024 and 21 in 695 in 2025. His 47.4% hard-hit rate and 91.7 mph EV over those two seasons are above average marks. Ramos’ power production was similar at home to on the road. Fifty-six percent of his homers since 2024 were hit away from his home park. Yankee Stadium provides a nice upgrade scenario for him, where the three-year rolling average in HR Park Factor is 117 (second-highest), compared to Oracle Park (82, 26th-ranked). Ramos isn’t likely to fall into a short-side platoon when Cody Bellinger is activated, though it might get trickier for manager Aaron Boone to piece lineups together in a way that supports full-time PT for Ramos if Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return, and everyone else remains healthy.

Ramos should see a spike in the RBI and R categories with the improved offensive firepower surrounding him in the lineup. Moreover, he can steal a few bases and is the least likely of these six outfielders to negatively impact the batting average category. Ramos can easily overdeliver on FGDC’s projected plate appearances and 5×5 stats. His redraft trade value gets a healthy bump, so the return in a one-for-one deal is significantly higher than it was just a day ago.

Redraft trade comps: Jarren Duran, Brandon Marsh, Carson Benge

Higher-valued outfielders I’d trade away for Ramos: Daylen Lile, Jo Adell, Trent Grisham, Henry Bolte

Daulton Varsho: Sell “High”

Varsho will miss his teammates dearly  but he will need to get right to work to play his part in holding down the top spot in the AL West and making a push in the playoffs. Varsho is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, due to his defensive prowess and negative impact in batting average (.229 for his career). Though he hit 27 dingers in 2022 and may have flirted with 30 in one of the last few seasons if he was healthy, Varsho’s underlying power metrics are below league-average — 37% HH, 8.3% BRL, 87.4 EV. Those rates were much higher in 2025 (40% HH, 16% BRL, 90 EV), but have taken a hard tumble so far in 2026, closer to his career rates. A .190ish isolated power bat for the first few seasons, Varsho’s ISO was an extraordinarily high .310 last season and is at a meager .131 so far this season, with just seven homers through his first 370 plate appearances.

The biggest concern — and this is just speculation — is that he hasn’t fully healed from a left wrist injury from early June that forced an IL stint. Since returning on June 20, Varsho’s power metrics and production have been poor — .222/.269/.317, .095 ISO, 64 wRC+ and just two home runs in 134 PAs. A fully healthy Varsho would take advantage of the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park; I just don’t think that he is. Varsho is a gamer. A player who is going to give it his all. Varsho will not suddenly become productive offensively because he’s been traded to a team in a playoff race. It is always worth pursuing trades that involve players who have just been traded at the MLB deadline because there’s always a slight window of over/under-inflation of value for a guy in a new uniform. The fresh new jersey and short porch in his home stadium may be enough to entice a trade partner on a deal that works in your favor.

Outfield targets in a 1:1 Varsho Deal: Garrett Mitchell, Heliot Ramos, Dylan Crews, Kody Clemens

Taylor Ward: Clear Downgrade…or is it?

Fantasy baseball managers have a natural yet simplistic flow of logic when certain types of players are traded: a hitter to the Mariners, bad; a pitcher to Mariners, good; a hitter to the Reds or Rockies, good; and so on, and so forth. Some of us stop there, but it’s not always just that simple and such trends are occasionally bucked. Of course, Taylor Ward playing approximately half of his remaining games at T-Mobile Park (29th-ranked Park Factor) instead of Oriole Park (sixth-ranked) is a projected downgrade — and projections should reflect this — but that’s not necessarily how it will play out.

Ward was a beast with the Angels last season (86-36-103-4-.228). We can only speculate on how much better Ward’s first four months would have gone if not for Gunnar Henderson being bad and Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg getting hurt. Ward would probably be performing better than he currently is (64-7-30-4-.246) and would likely still be on the Orioles, but we can’t prove that. Ward spent most of the season as the Orioles leadoff hitter, and though he has failed to earn his fantasy ADP, he has been an above-average run-producer — 10th in the American League with 64. Seattle has a crowded outfield, which forces Dominic Canzone to start more frequently as their designated hitter. Tuesday Ward hit 8th against a RHP, between Brendan Donovan and Colt Emerson. It’s not the worst spot to be in, but it’s also not in stone.

I don’t believe Ward should be as severely downgraded as he might be based on his new team and home park. I also don’t believe that he will suddenly become a must-start in shallow leagues, let alone 15-teamers. Ward might have a run in September, but it’s going to be tough the rest of August based on the quality of opponent. Over the next few weeks, the Mariners will face some of the toughest starting pitchers in baseball: Rays, Yankees, Astros (ok, maybe not them), Brewers, Cubs, and Phillies. It’s not pretty, and it’s a good reason to not be bullish on the Mariners offense over the next three weeks.

Jo Adell: Where’s the Beef?

Adell crushed 37 dingers with 98 RBIs and a 17.2% barrel rate last season. So far this season, he’s way off that pace, with 16 through 111 games (456 PAs), with a huge decrease in barrel rate (8.2%) and hard-hit rate (49.6% to 43.7%). Moreover, he has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching — a .112 ISO and 65 wRC+ compared to .269 and 148 vs. LHPs. If he wasn’t crushing it in Anaheim, he certainly won’t in Cleveland, where he’s more likely to fall into the short-side of a platoon, right? Maybe, but not necessarily.

Perhaps that feeling on being on a “real” baseball team with something to play for will inspire him, help him increase his production and force manager Stephen Vogt’s lineup hand. Adell’s first game as a Guardian happens to be against a lefty starter and he’s penciled into the two-hole between Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter. The Guardians will face another two lefties this weekend at Rate Field against the White Sox. Let’s see if and where he plays against the righties. Adell isn’t an outright trade target with a visible edge unless the seller is bearish and you get the feeling he might drop him. Adell can be a streaky beast — for good and for bad. I would see how the next couple of weeks play out and would not recommend dropping him in any format.

Lars Nootbaar: It’s Been 86 Years!

Nootbaar is a continual fantasy soul-sucker who I have always supported and may continue to do so. His metrics and results will sync in perfect harmony someday, right? Well, evoking free passes more than almost anyone (13% career walk rate) and hitting the ball hard and well (50% HH, 10% BRL, 92 EV), Nootbaar has never hit more than 15 home runs or driven in more than 50 runs in a season. Though he has had decent stretches of production against southpaws early in his career, he has been wildly ineffective against them over the last couple of seasons, producing a sub-.300 slugging percentage and a wRC+ of 60, though he rarely faces them. The Diamondbacks would ideally platoon him but may call upon him to start against lefties until fellow outfielder Jordan Lawlar is activated. Over the next 10 days, the Diamondbacks will mostly face RHPs, so there’s no rush to drop him from 12-team rosters unless there’s a clear upgrade available. He bats sixth and will DH in his D-Backs debut on Tuesday and I will continue to hold him as I hold onto my hopes, dreams, and biases for a bit longer.

Lane Thomas: Staying in his…

Getting traded to the Atlanta Braves usually can’t be a bad thing, unless one’s role is as a short-side platoon bat with not many southpaws on the horizon. Some of us will always have that 2023 season (101-28-86-20-.268), though we’ve long since spent that league prize money and we owe Thomas nothing. He’s been one of the more effective hitters for the Royals, but that isn’t saying much considering Vinnie Pasquantino‘s and Bobby Witt Jr.‘s ailments and Salvador Perez‘s rapid decline. Thomas was traded in the middle of Saturday’s game and pulled in the fourth inning. He joined the Braves on Tuesday, though isn’t in the lineup against a right-handed starter. Thomas may earn starts against RHPs, but they won’t be frequent. He’s the perfect platoon partner for the left-hand-hitting outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, can mix in at DH, complementing lefty Dominic Smith, or perhaps even steal some of Mauricio Dubón’s playing time. Thomas isn’t a complete goose egg against righties (career .162 ISO, 84 wRC+) and good managers (assuming you consider Walt Weiss one) know how to manage these situations. Nevertheless, Thomas can be comfortably dropped in 12-team leagues and is a case-dependent drop (or reserve) in 15-teamers.