The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 883 – Padres Strike Again; Yankees Active

1/19/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Late-Round Evaluations: Pivetta, Bubic, Gomber, & Others

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

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Starting Pitcher Z-Contact% Improvers

Let’s start off with the obvious here, what is Z-Contact%? If you check out our handy dandy glossary you would see “Pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone/Swings on pitches inside the zone.” For pitchers, quite simply how often do opposing hitters make contact on their pitches when they throw inside the zone. Here are the leaders from 2020.

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2020 Forecast — Starting Pitcher K% Decliners, A Review

Last week, I reviewed my starting pitcher K% surgers list, so today, I’ll review my starting pitcher K% decliners list, which was assembled using my pitcher xK% equation. Strikeout rates tend to bounce around throughout the season, so it’s pretty silly to be evaluating the accuracy of this list considering the pitchers only made 11 or 12 starts. But it’s all we have, so let’s get to it.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 882 – Interesting Steamer Projections

1/15/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 STEAMER GEMS

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Beat the Shift Podcast – FAAB Episode w/ Todd Zola

The FAAB episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Todd Zola of Mastersball, ESPN & RotoWire

Park Factors

  • What are park factors, and how they are calculated? What do they capture?
  • The effect of the humidor.
  • Park factors for unknown situations.
  • Park factors for free agents.

Projections

  • How projections are treating the uncertainty surrounding the DH (for the National League) in the upcoming season.

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First Basemen ADP Market Report: 1/14/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Mets Episode w/ Wayne Randazzo (Voice of the NY Mets)

The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Wayne Randazzo – The Voice of the New York Mets

  • Broadcasting in 2020
  • Lindor/Carrasco trade
  • Pete Alonso/Dom Smith and the Designated Hitter
  • J.D. Davis/Brandon Nimmo as starters
  • Trade for George Springer?
  • Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo & the bullpen
  • Minor League prospect impact for 2021
  • Steven Matz
  • Most underrated player on the ball club
  • Most exciting moments of Wayne’s broadcasting career

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 881 – Outfield Pt. 6 | Deeeep Favorites

1/14/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Late-Round Evaluations: Mills, Wacha, Wilson, and More

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of eight more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8).

#523 Bryse Wilson

I’m a little surprised Wilson is being drafted this high (i.e. at all). In 42 career innings over three seasons, he has a 5.91 ERA supported by a 5.3 BB/9. He has been unplayable. I could just go through the plethora of negatives, but instead, I’ll state the few positives (career numbers).

  1. He was decent in AAA in 2019 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 121 innings.
  2. A 94-mph four-seamer with a 10% SwStr% and a popup inducing 32% GB%.
  3. A 93-mph sinker with a 11% SwStr% and 73% GB%.
  4. And what looks like an average changeup (12% SwStr%).

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