New Everyday Starters — Sep 22, 2021

We got some more everyday starters to discuss as we count down the days until the regular season ends.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: September 22, 2021

On the Agenda: 

  1. Closer Chaos
  2. Quick Hits
  3. Various News and Notes
  4. Streaming Pitchers

 

Closer Chaos

Tyler Rogers threw a scoreless inning and assisted in this fantastic double play to finish off the Padres and register the save on Tuesday night:

There was some speculation the Giants could turn to Dominc Leone or take a committee approach with Jake McGee on the IL and Rogers struggling a bit lately, but it appears clear that Rogers is the guy while McGee is out.

 

Quick Hits

Seth Beer will have shoulder surgery that will end his season. Beer is a former top prospect that played well in his five games in the Majors this year. He should be ready for the season next year and should compete for a job at first base or DH if the National league adds the designated hitter position in 2022. 

 

Cody Bellinger was placed on the IL with a rib fracture. He was going to try and play through the injury, but the Dodgers are hoping that he can be ready to play in the last week of the season since the move is retroactive to September 18th. 

 

Dylan Carlson left Tuesday’s game with an unknown injury. Carlson had played well in the game and sat during a double switch, so this may be nothing, but the Cardinals manager Mike Shlidt did not directly answer the question as to if he got hurt. Consider him day-to-day and keep an eye if he is in the lineup tomorrow. 

 

Various News and Notes

Cal Quantrill threw 6.2 innings in the victory over the Royals, allowing one run on seven hits and two walks while striking out six. Quantril has been fantastic in the second half, throwing 83 innings with a 1.73 ERA and 73 strikeouts. He has quietly become the Indians most reliable pitcher and may emerge as a top 30 pitcher coming into 2022. 

 

Nick Gordon went 3-for-5 with a home run and stolen base in the victory over the Cubs on Tuesday. 

Gordon has a little bit of pop and some speed but has profiled more as a swiss army knife than a full time regular. The Twins have an opportunity to see what they have in the 25-year-old, so he is an interesting play rest of the season especially with his multi-positional flexibility.

 

Streaming Pitchers (Under 50% in CBS)

Pitcher for Today: Joe Ryan at CHC

Ryan has pitched well and this is a nice matchup in an NL park. 

High Risk Options: Elieser Hernandez vs WAS, Reynaldo Lopez at DET, Merrill Kelly 켈리 vs ATL, Janson Junk vs HOU. 

 

Pitcher for Tomorrow: None

Short slate with no real good options.

High Risk Options: Alex Cobb vs HOU

 

For those of you that would like to see how these picks play out, I have a doc I put together to track the stats from the recommended pitchers. It does not include the “High Risk Options.”


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 980 – Early 2022 Mock Draft

9/21/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – September 22nd, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (9/21/21)

American League

Blue Jays

• Hang in there with this story about Robbie Ray. First, I thought he might be worth taking a chance because his velocity was up in Spring Training

With an ADP of 294, I thought why not roster him. If things turn south, I could let him go.

In his first two starts, he posted an 8.1 BB/9 leading to a 1.60 WHIP. I couldn’t stand the walks and dropped him for … Josh Fleming.

Oopsie. This move probably cost a few hundred dollars. Rostering the league’s likely Cy Young winner would have been helpful. The deal is that I should have had a little more patience since Ray missed some time with a bruised elbow and it took a while to heal.

It took one start in spring training for Ray to feel like the work he put in over the winter would pay off. When his season began — albeit slightly delayed after he bruised his elbow after a fall — he felt confident about where he was. As the season has progressed, it has only gotten better.

So I’ve come up with a set of simple rules to handle desirable players coming back from injuries.

  1. Assume they are not 100% and give them some time to heal.
  2. If necessary, bench them.
  3. Look for improvement over the next couple of weeks. If none, then cut. One option is that there may be some improvement but not enough to start.

It will always be more of art than a science threading that line from having the patience to hold on too long to an injured and/or underperforming player. For myself, I need to get the hurt ones a little more time. Read the rest of this entry »


Do You Need Runs? Do You Want RBI?! You Need Home Runs!

Back in April, I conducted an analysis that looked at which category made the most sense to punt in roto-category scoring leagues. The results proved (somewhat) the offensive category most conducive to that strategy is stolen bases. That’s easy.

But you punted already. The punting is done. That ball ain’t coming back. Now you need to win, win, win! Therefore, you need home runs. When taking the last 15 games of the season from qualified hitters from 2015 to 2019, and limiting the dataset to just the three categories: home runs, runs, and RBI, I get the following correlations:

End of Season Correlation Sums
HR R RBI
HR 1.00 0.48 0.69
R 0.48 1.00 0.45
RBI 0.69 0.45 1.00
SUM 2.18 1.94 2.15
Among qualified hitters in their last 15 games, 2015-2019.

Homeruns, late in the season, have the highest sum of correlation. When batters hit home runs in small samples, they’re bringing runners in and scoring runs themselves. No duh. Here are three players that are projected (as of 9/20/21) to hit three more home runs according to our Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections. Now, I know you deep-league players are going to scoff and turn your nose up at these players who have not been available since your draft, but let’s give some love to the churn and burn, shallow leaguers, trying to squeeze out a few more category tens. 

C.J. Cron, Depth Charts ROS: 3 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R. ESPN Roster %: 70.9. 

Mike Podhorzer’s recent article encourages you to stack up on Rockies hitters for good reason. Pod did not include Cron because he assumed he would be gobbled up by your league mates already. But he recently went 0-for-11 before a two-hit night in Washington followed by another 0-for-3 night. There are surely managers out there that have dropped Cron and are unaware of the fact that he will be hitting in Colorado for nine games, as pointed out by Podhorzer. At home, Cron has batted .315 and on the road, has batted .226. While he is slumping as of late, his second-half .283 average is improved from his first-half .254 and his ROS projections could add a few more needed digits to your totals. 

Miguel Sanó, Depth Charts ROS: 3 HR, 7 RBI, 6 R. ESPN Roster %: 50.2.

Sano is one of those players, like Cron, that you may just be able to pick up on the wire because other managers have lost faith. But, recently Sano has been on a tear going 6-for-21 with two home runs, four RBI, and five runs. What is there left to say about Sano? He ranks 11th in savant’s Brls/PA% and fourth in average exit velocity. He’s going to hit the ball hard and hopefully, he puts it over the fence three more times as projected. Luckily, you can grab him on a hot streak and, hopefully, won’t have to suffer through too many hitless games the rest of the way. 

Tyler O’Neill, Depth Charts ROS: 3 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R. ESPN Roster %: 71.8.

This season I have fallen in love with xwOBA and its in-season predictive power. Tyler O’Neill ranks 16th in xwOBA among minimum balls in play qualified hitters. His teammate Paul Goldschmidt is just above him at 15th and since August 15th the Cardinals rank 9th in wOBA. With an offense clicking, a man that looks like he could hit a ball to Greenland, and projections to further the narrative, O’Neill should be rostered on your team the rest of the way.


Starting Pitcher Chart – September 21st, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

(Pardon for the day-of posting, I wasn’t able to get it posted last night!)

Read the rest of this entry »


New Everyday Starters — Sep 21, 2021

During these last two weeks of the season, all that matters right now is playing time. And playing time changes a lot at the end of the season as out-of-contention teams look toward the future and veterans on teams that have wrapped things up might get an extra day of rest here and there. So let’s bring back the look at new everyday starters and discuss four of them.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: September 21, 2021

HISTORY:

Read the rest of this entry »


Avoiding Late-Season Bear Traps

With only two weeks left in the season, every decision for starting pitchers can be crucial, whether trying to close things out in roto, or surviving another week of the playoffs in point leagues. Your hand is often forced in roto, as categorical needs will often be driving your decisions, and sometimes you can only be so conservative. But in H2H points with a typical playoffs setup, a format for which I have great affection, you can often be a lot more creative with your start/sit decisions, making choices you typically wouldn’t at any other time besides the playoffs.

In most leagues, you’re not only dealing with a limit on starts per week but (depending on your scoring system) the worry of the equalizing effect of a pitcher going negative in any given start. This makes every start choice supremely important, as playoff upsets are often built on the backs of unexpected blowups. And sometimes you need to play defense, playing the opponent as much as the pitcher.

Because there is really nothing worse than strolling happily along through your season before being snatched up by a Dallas Keuchel-shaped beartrap right before the finish line. Crack! No more fantasy season. Read the rest of this entry »