Bullpen Report: September 14, 2019

Amidst the struggles prior to September within the Rockies bullpen, both Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez continue to emerge as high leverage options. Last night, Diaz notched his third save in the last four days erasing a lead-off hit by Wil Myers with a double play ground out by Josh Naylor then ended the game with a strikeout of Luis Urias. This marks the fourth save of the month for Diaz and he’s yet to allow an earned run his last 7.2 innings with seven strikeouts against one walk. He’s also been unscored upon his last six appearances. Estevez recorded his 10th hold with a clean eighth inning striking out one. His month’s proves to be more impressive than Diaz with a minuscule 0.15 WHIP over 6.2 scoreless innings with an identical 7:1 K:BB. It can be tough to trust relievers in the Rockies, but there could be hope with a healthy Scott Oberg combined with the recent success of Diaz and Estevez in the future. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 737 – Fireside Chat: Too Early Mock SP Market Analysis

9/13/19

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TOO EARLY MOCK SP ANALYSIS

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 94 minutes of joyous analysis.


Streaming Starters: September 14, 2019

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Go Get ‘Em!

Merrill Kelly (10-14, 4.68) vs. CIN | 15%*

For only the second time this season, Kelly has put together three starts in a row with a SwStr% of at least 10 percent. It just so happens that those three most recent starts are the only ones in which Kelly has averaged at least 93 mph in fastball velocity. Across those outings, Kelly has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP to go along with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Factor in his .296 wOBA allowed in home starts plus a matchup with a Reds offense that ranks sixth in strikeout rate and 21st in wOBA over the last 30 days, and Kelly stands out as the best starter to add on this slate.
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Reverse Engineering the Sharks (9/13/19)

I’m back for more diving into how the Vegas betting odds on MLB games can help fantasy owners find any new information. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through articles find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Fantasy usable information.

Game 1 (Monday): Brewers at Marlins
Favorite: Brewers
Vegas Breakeven % (Brewers): 68.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 58.4%

There are several items which could be making the Marlins look worse. Rober Duggar’s projected ERA was near 5.00 but his in-season FIP and xFIP were closer to 6.00. Additionally, the Marlins bullpen ERA is a half run higher than the Brewers.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 738 – 2-Starts & Platoons for Week of Sept. 16th

9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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Paul runs through the scheduled two-start pitchers and righty/lefty schedule splits of each team for next week highlighting who to start and potential platoon bats who could benefit.

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Bullpen Report: September 13, 2019

Kenley Jansen pitched a perfect bottom of the ninth inning against the Orioles for his 29th save on Thursday night, and it was the sort of uneventful outing that typically only gets a mention in the “Quick Hits” section of this column. Yet it was notable, not for what happened in this particular appearance, but how it fit into a larger trend.

The Dodgers’ closer threw 18 pitches, and only seven of them were in the strike zone. That 38.9 percent Zone% gave Jansen a string of eight outings in which he has recorded a Zone% below 40 percent in all but one appearance. Six of those eight performances have resulted in Jansen throwing no more than one out of every three pitches in the strike zone, and his cumulative Zone% over this eight-inning span is just 29.0 percent. To put this into perspective, no qualified reliever between 2014 and 2018 finished with a rate below 32 percent.
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The Daily Grind: All of the Aces

I’m grumpy because the Durham Bulls lost last night (i.e. they were swept), and now I don’t get to go watch playoff baseball tonight. On with the show.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Joy

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A Minor Review of 2019: San Diego Padres

Welcome back to this annual series that first began in 2008. While taking a look back at the 2019 minor league season, it will also help you prepare for the 2020 fantasy season and beyond. We began the series recently with the Arizona Diamondbacks, followed by the Colorado Rockies. Today, we continue on with the San Diego Padres, an organization brimming with good, young talent.

Best Move of the Season:

It wasn’t anywhere near the steal of Fernando Tatis Jr. from the White Sox but the addition of center-fielder Taylor Trammell in a three-way trade with Cleveland and Cincinnati was a very underrated move. Yes, the Padres gave up three players but southpaw Logan Allen is overrated, outfielder Franmil Reyes is a very one-dimensional player, and the third player, Victor Nova, is a raw lottery ticket. Trammell, meanwhile, was already considered a Top 100 prospect despite his struggles with the bat in 2019. He’s ultra-athletic with plus speed and the raw power to hit 20 or more home runs. Despite his struggles in 2019 and issues making consistent contact, Trammell walked 65 times in 123 games (13% walk rate). Acquiring him was a worthwhile gamble considering what was given up in exchange.

The Org Depth:

The Padres graduated Luis Urias in 2019 but there is still an incredible amount of middle-infield depth on the way.

C.J. Abrams: Abrams was one of the most talented and most athletic players in the 2019 draft but no one expected his bat to be quite as advanced as it was. He laid waste to the Arizona rookie league with a 1.104 OPS and .401 batting average in 32 games. Abrams also showed more pop in the bat with 23 of his 57 hits in Rookie ball going for extra bases. The speedy infielder also added 14 steals on his way to an early August promotion to Low-A ball — a nearly unprecedented move for an 18-year-old.

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Roto Riteup: September 13, 2019

We’re all about anonymity here at the Roto Riteup.

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Top 30 First Basemen for 2020

First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.

One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.

Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.

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