Midseason Review of Alan Harrison’s 10 Bold-ish Predictions, The 2015 Edition

In the spirit of the All-Star Break, I figured this was as good a time as any to check in on my “10 Bold-ish Predictions, The 2015 Edition.” Like some of my colleagues have done, I’ll simply state the prediction and discuss the player/s progress — or lack there of — towards said bold prediction.

1. Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn will be top 75 starters

Right-hander Jesse Hahn went 6-6 with a 3.35 ERA (3.45 FIP) and a 9.6% K-BB% in 16 first-half starts for the Athletics. He’s not missing as many bats as he did with the Padres last season, but his efforts still managed to leave him ranked as the 57th ranked starter in the Y! game. Unfortunately, Hahn hasn’t pitched since July 1st and officially hit the disabled list with a strained forearm on July 11th.

As for Pomeranz, he’s only appeared out of the bullpen since the start of June. Given Hahn’s injury and the role of Pomeranz, I have a hard time believing this prediction will hit.

2. In his age 23 season, Joc Pederson goes 23/23 or better

Half of this turned out really well so far. Pederson sits at 20/3 through the first half of the season, impressive enough to earn a Home Run Derby appearance at the All-Star Game. As long as health or the curse of the Home Run Derby doesn’t impact Pederson’s swing or second half of the season, he should have no problem reaching that 23 home run mark. Unfortunately, Pederson isn’t running as much as he did on the farm, so reaching that 23 stolen base mark seems to be the challenge. ZiPS and Steamer project Pederson for 7 and 6 stolen bases respectively to finish out the year, which would leave the Dodger quite short of the 23/23 prediction.

3. Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna combine for 80/35

The trio sits at 36/12 halfway through the season. Like everyone else in baseball, if you can’t stay healthy or if you’re not playing well, you’re not going to be on the field. Stanton carried the group in the first half, but is out 4-6 weeks with a bum wrist. Yelich and Ozuna started off slow and Steamer only projects the trio for a 26/11 effort in the second half, which would leave us at 62/23 on the year. No bueno.

4. Justin Upton hits a career high number of homers

Did I say homers? I really meant stolen bases, ugh…Upton has knocked 14 into the stands this year and is projected by Steamer to hit just another 10 in the second half. That would leave him seven short of his career best 31 homer season in 2011. I wish I said stolen bases because Upton swiped 17 in the first half and Steamer thinks he’ll grab another six during the home stretch, leaving him with 23 — a career best.

5. Anthony Rendon will not finish ‘15 as a top eight second or third baseman.

Like I noted in the preseason, injuries were a concern for the Nationals’ infielder and did in fact plague the first half of his ‘15 campaign. He’s amassed just 80 plate appearances across 18 games without hitting a home run or stealing base. Hopefully he can get healthy for the second half, but as of right now it seems like Rendon will not finish as a top eight second or third baseman in ‘15.

6. Kevin Gausman is a top 50 starting pitcher

Kevin Gausman made just three starts in the first half and eight appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen. He’ll be returning to the O’s rotation for the start of the second half, but sitting at 180th among those qualified at SP on ESPN’s player rater, Gausman will have his work cut out for him if he’s to finish a top 50 starting pitcher.

7. Rougned Odor is a top 12 Second Baseman

Odor struggled mightily to start the year, then was shipped off to the farm to polish his tools in early May. Upon returning in the middle of June, it looked as if the second baseman made the appropriate tweaks. Odor slashed .391/.453/.587 in 14 June games and .294/.324/.500 in nine July games before the break while significantly cutting down on the strikeouts from March, April and May. He’s currently the 37th ranked second baseman on the ESPN player rater, so he’ll need a strong second half if he’s to finish a top 12 second baseman.

8. Albert Pujols hits 35 home runs for the first time as an Angel

This one is looking pretty good. Pujols knocked 26 homers in the first half, needing just nine more to reach the 35 home run mark. Steamer thinks that Pujols is good for another 14 to finish out the season, which will leave him at an even 40 — nine shy of his career best 49 homer mark in 2006 with the Cardinals — allowing him to hit 35 home runs for the first time as an Angel.

9. Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez will hit 70 a combined homers

This didn’t work out as well as I hoped. Bryant is at 12, Soler at four and Baez has yet to sniff the majors this season. They’ll need a whopping 54 in the second half to make this prediction happen. Steamer thinks they can get to 22.

10. The San Diego Padres win the NL West

This turned out bad. Real bad.

All in all, I think the Pujols and Rendon predictions will be the only ones to hit. 2-of-10 is not very good.





In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com and follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.

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the guy with the beds
8 years ago

Embarrassing. Maybe you should write about hockey or cricket.