Last 14 Day AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Surgers

We know that average fastball velocity rises as the season progresses. And of course, velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate. Sometimes velocity increases as a result of improved/changed mechanics, while other times pitchers might suddenly feel healthier than they had earlier in the season. Players are always dealing with aches and pains, the majority of which we never hear about. Since velocity stabilizes quickly, we should take surges very seriously. They could portend or confirm better performance. So here are your American League starting pitchers who have enjoyed at least a two mile per hour jump in velocity since April over the last two weeks.

Raise your hand if you would have guessed that John Danks would top the list of velocity gainers, let alone any sort of positive list. I see no hands, sounds about right. Danks’ velocity chart shows a nice upward trend. Over his last two starts (excluding last night), he has averaged at least 91 mph with his fastball, which amazingly represented the first two times he has averaged that high going back to 2013. The velocity spike came suddenly too, as in his previous starts his velocity was only marginally higher than it had been all season. A quick Google search yielded no obvious explanation for the jump. But perhaps if this is sustainable, he could actually earn some AL-Only league value. In the tiny sample of two starts with that velocity spike, his strikeout rate was a robust 28.6%.

Oh boy, there’s CC Sabathia’s name again, taunting me as usual. No matter how many runs he regularly gives up, I cannot seem to shake him. His 92.3 mph average fastball in his last start (not last night’s) was his highest since August of 2013. In his four starts since the All-Star break, his velocity has sat at 91.3 mph, versus just 89.6 before. His strikeout rate is similar and his ERA has dropped, but it has still been well above 4.00. It’s not real hard to improve upon a mid-5.00 ERA. That said, it’s obvious that Sabathia was a different pitcher sitting in the high-80s. Now that his velocity has crept back up above 90 again, there’s a much better chance that his terrible HR/FB rate luck reverses and he becomes a fantasy league asset again.

Over on our Community blog, Brian Reiff discussed Matt Shoemaker’s recent velocity spike. Last season, he averaged 90.5 mph with his fastball, but through his June 19th start, his velocity sat at just 89.3 mph. That 90 mph threshold is an important one and could be one of the reasons he had been so disappointing in trying to follow up last year’s surprise breakout year. But since that date, his velocity has jumped to 91.3 mph, which is even higher than last season’s average. During that entire time span, his strikeout rate hadn’t improved, but his HR/FB rate finally fell back down to Earth. Since his peripherals remained solid all season long, all he needed was better fortune to help mixed leaguers. The velocity bounce back should ensure that will be the case.

Felix Hernandez’s fastball velocity has been steadily declining over the years, which is normal of course for a pitcher. It hasn’t affected hid performance though. But after averaging at least 92 mph with his fastball just six times over his first 19 starts, he has now averaged at least that mark over his last four starts. And in his last one, he got over the 93 mph hump. There really isn’t much that needs to be said here as he has proven that even with some velocity loss he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

On a full season level, Wei-Yin Chen has been remarkably consistent with his fastball velocity during his four years here. After chugging along with velocity in the 91 and change range in an amazing 14 of 15 starts, his velocity suddenly jumped to 93 mph in his last game. That 93 mph average velocity has happened just three times previously since 2012. And two of those times came in back-to-back games. But after those games, his velocity slipped back into the normal range. Let’s assume that happens again until he proves us wrong. Then we could revisit.