I Have the Need, the Need for Mead (in Fenway)

If you were excited by offseason rumors of Isaac Paredes to Boston, or about the Red Sox adding Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin to their right-handed hitter ranks, you should feel good about Curtis Mead. And if you’re anyone else, you’re probably thinking that the Nationals’ new GM Paul Toboni made like a seasoned fantasy manager and sold high on a few months of Mead for five years of team control of Connelly Early, a promising young left-handed starting pitcher.

But it looks like Mead has made some really intriguing changes that give us reason to believe in his growth as a hitter and Fenway might be an ideal new home for him.

Yes, Mead looks like a knight stitched together by Boston faithful to pepper and vanquish the Green Monster. A pull-happy right-handed bat, he mirrors Contreras and Durbin in that he also rarely strikes out and has a keen eye at the plate. The young infielder has a 22.5% pull air rate this season, nearly six points above league average and a few points above his career average as well. And he comes by his 19% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate honestly, as his 25.2% chase rate and 17.8% whiff rate are amongst the best in the majors.

The deeper you dive into his eye and approach, the clearer it becomes that he is picking his spots with intention, focusing on the inner half of the plate in spots where he can do damage.

Compare Mead’s swing rates this season to the balls he puts in play with the most thump (measured by ISO per ball in play), and they map fairly well. Mead also clearly is not swinging much on pitches outside of the heart and shadows of the zone, backing up his chase rate.

Clearly, Mead is a solid hitter who should continue to pull the ball and not have to do too much adjusting in Fenway. If anything, he may see his .254 AVG, one less valuable fantasy categories, increase with the move. Last season, Nationals Park was mostly a neutral park for right-handed hitters, with 99 park factors across the board outside of a 103 HR factor, according to Fangraphs. Fenway, on the other hand, boosts park factors for singles to 105 and doubles to 104, but right-handed homers have just a 101 park factor.

So, we should probably project Mead for a slight decrease in homers — he has 14 expected homers in Fenway by Savant, compared to 17 actual homers this season — with a bump in batting average. But what about counting stats? The Nationals lead the majors in runs, RBI, and SLG this season, while the Red Sox lag behind, though they’ve been better in July. While the Nationals have been second in runs and SLG since July 1, the Red Sox have clawed their way up to ninth. Mead was very much in the middle of the potent Nationals lineup, regularly hitting second or third.

Will he occupy that same premiere slot for the Sox? At this point, it’s hard to say. It’s hard to expect a team that may be competing for a Wild Card spot like the Red Sox to deal for a position player, which they have plenty of, if they didn’t consider him to be a clear upgrade and priority to get into the lineup. You don’t deal a fan favorite like Connelly Early for a guy you won’t feature.

But against righties, a switch-hitting second baseman in rookie Anthony Seigler has been leading off lately, trailed by Cedanne Rafaela (R), Wilyer Abreu (L), and Willson Contreras (R). Masataka Yoshida, Caleb Durbin, and Jarren Duran have slotted into the 5-7 holes lately, even against righties.

Mead has not exhibited a platoon split this season, with an OPS over .800 against both lefties and righties. Early reports show that manager Chad Tracy is interested in keeping Durbin at third and deploying Mead at second base, bumping Seigler into a less regular role and keeping Yoshida in at DH. If that plan holds, especially against lefties, remains to be seen. Either way, whether it’s Seigler or Yoshida sacrificing at bats to Mead on a given day, there is room for the Australian thumper to hit in the top five for his new club. And while he is already 2B eligible on Yahoo, he is not yet eligible at second base on CBS, which would add a bit of value on that platform.

Mead is already 86% rostered on CBS, so maybe a few teams in 10- or 12-teamers on CBS could use a second baseman in a few weeks. On Yahoo, Mead is just 51% rostered, which I expect to increase given the trade and move to Boston, especially considering he is already eligible at first, second, and third.