Gary Sanchez Homers His Way Into History

Shockingly, it has been nearly 100 plate appearances since Gary Sanchez was recalled by the Yankees for a full-time role and this is his first dedicated RotoGraphs post. Of course, in itself, not talking about a recently recalled prospect 24 games into his career isn’t noteworthy. Except, when that career begins the way Sanchez’s has.

Obviously, you know the video game-like numbers he has posted. However, if you are returning from vacation, your power went out for the last couple of weeks, or you just subscribed to CompuServe for its access to the exciting World Wide Web, then here’s a refresher of his slash line through last night — .405/.468/.893. That equates to a .488 ISO and .551 wOBA folks. It’s not even like this has occurred through a week of play. No, this has been his performance for nearly the entire month of August.

When he hit his 11th home run on Saturday, Sanchez became the fastest player in MLB history to reach that mark, achieving the total in just 23 games (which counts two plate appearances from two games during his actual debut last year). What’s crazier is that the homer gave him one more than he had hit during his entire time at Triple-A this season, but he required 71 games and 284 at-bats to reach double digits at that level! It’s not often a player performs significantly better once reaching the Majors than he did in the minors in the same year.

While he’s striking out a bit more than he did in Triple-A, his strikeout rate is right in line with his marks prior to his improved contact this year. He’s also even walking more often, but that walk rate is inflated by two intentional walks, and no doubt pitchers likely pitching him more carefully (or at least trying to) during his power binge. Still, it’s good news that he hasn’t seemingly sold out for power by flailing at everything.

What’s interesting is not just the power spike, but that he’s hitting .400 thanks to a .404 BABIP. On first glance, his batted ball profile actually seems to suggest a below average BABIP. So let’s run it through Alex Chamberlain’s xBABIP formula to see if I am right. Sure enough, his xBABIP sits at just .289. And if you glance at his minor league BABIPs, you’ll note that they aren’t very high either, typically bouncing around the league average. With such a low line drive rate, an above average pop-up rate, and a pull-happy tendency, his BABIP is at serious risk of major collapse.

Let’s get back to the power. Through Saturday’s games, his HR/FB rate stood at a ridiculous 45.8%. Nearly half of his fly balls have left the yard! Here is his spray chart:

All of his homers have gone out between the left field line and center field, with absolutely none to the right of second base. While not going the opposite way on just 11 homers isn’t anything strange, it’s actually a good sign that he has hit his homers to all parts of the left side of second base, and not just pulled down the line.

His average fly ball/line drive exit velocity (Avg FB/LD EV) sits at 97.3 mph, which ranks 13th in baseball. It validates that he has exhibited huge power, though perhaps you would expect a lead-leading mark given his lofty HR/FB rate. Obviously, his power isn’t going to remain historically good and although he’s still in growth mode, his minor league performance never showed anything close to this type of power, making us wonder where exactly this is coming from.

Clearly, both Sanchez’s BABIP and power, whether you choose to focus on ISO or HR/FB rate, are going to drop precipitously, just because he’s probably not the best hitter in the history of the game. Which mark would you argue is flukier?

Looking toward next year, you might be asking yourself if he’s a top three catcher. According to my CBS league site, Buster Posey has actually been the third most valuable catcher this year, not the first, but given his track record, should still probably be the first ranked backstop next season. Is Sanchez second? If not, is he in the top three or top five? Sanchez benefits from being in the American League, as he’ll fill the designated hitter role often when he’s not behind the plate. So as long as he’s hitting, he’s going to amass more plate appearances than the majority of catchers.

For fun, let’s extrapolate Sanchez’s current fantasy stats through last night’s game over 600 plate appearances, which is probably the most bullish playing time projection you could come up with for next year.

All from the catcher position! You don’t even need to justify an early pick with a position scarcity argument!

Let’s be super conservative here and say his HR/FB rate next year falls to 15%. Given his minor league track record, this seems reasonable. Assuming all else being equal (strikeout and fly ball rate), that would result in 23 homers next year. If we gave him just 500 plate appearances, that’s 19 homers. Then add it the boost to his runs and RBI totals he’ll receive from hitting in the middle of the order (if he sticks) and you could see 70-80 of both. As mentioned above, I think his BABIP has a ways to fall. I don’t even think he’s a high BABIP guy, but even a drop could still keep him in positive value territory in batting average. So let’s assume .270-.280.

So if Sanchez projects for 20-25 homers, 70-80 runs and RBI and a .270-.280 average, that’s easily in the conversation for the next guy after Posey, with Jonathan Lucroy likely favored due to his track record. Since I believe all catchers are always undervalued after Posey, even this historic run is unlikely to be enough to make Sanchez someone to avoid on draft day next year.