GadZooks! Twins Catcher Shows Pulse, Semblance of Fantasy Value

Suzuki was the 14th ranked catcher, behind Seattle’s Mike Zunino and ahead of San Diego’s Yasmani Grandal.

When the news broke last November that Joe Mauer would be moving off the catcher position permanently, a void opened that many assumed would be filled by Josmil Pinto. Not much was known about Pinto’s receiving skills, but the 24-year-old had just wrapped up a 21-game September run where he hit .342/.398/.566 and in doing so created considerable buzz.

It’s been nearly a year since then and Pinto still hasn’t grabbed that starting spot. And some would say it’s for good reason. No, it probably doesn’t make sense that Pinto’s age-25 season was spent by and large at Triple-A Rochester — especially in light of the Twins losing 90 games for the fourth consecutive season. But the Twins had their reasons, like it or not.

Their reasoning was the play of Kurt Suzuki.

Now I’m not here to debate the merits of letting Suzuki play pretty much the whole season long, nor am I here to speak to my beliefs regarding his extension. I do plenty of that elsewhere.

On the surface Suzuki had one of his finest seasons. The Twins signed him to a one-year deal in the offseason, and in 131 games he hit .288/.345/.383 while the average AL catcher hit just .240/.300/.370. With offense down league wide, playing Suzuki every day seems defensible, if not downright sensible. Suzuki’s first half was so good he even made his first All Star team, representing the hometown boys at Target Field in mid-July.

But that’s kind of where the Cinderella story ends. Suzuki hit .309/.365/.396 before the break, and just .253/.313/.362 after it. That’s right, almost the same as the .253/.309/.375 line he had coming into the season.

In fact the drop off was more severe on a month-to-month basis:

March/April – .302/.390/.413
May – .293/.343/.391
June – .304/.333/.367
July – .329/.414/.397
August – .241/.286/.367
September – .258/.296/.364

Basically, Suzuki’s drop off nearly perfectly coincided with when the Twins probably should have shopped and subsequently moved him near the trade deadline. And nobody will ever know what kind of offers — if any — were available from teams like St. Louis (who eventually added A.J. Pierzynski) or Baltimore (who does whatever the hell it wants and succeeds). But the Twins did what the Twins have shown a pattern to do in recent years: buck the trend and sign their guy despite public pleas to do otherwise.

They did it with Mike Pelfrey, and they’ll continue to do it with arbitration cases this year too. In a league where relief pitching is easily accessible and borderline fungible, the Twins will extend offers to Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak despite neither being particularly good this year — or ever.

The Twins signed Suzuki to a two-year deal. By definition, that’s the least a team could ever get a guy to take. Nobody signs a one-year extension, thereby staying their place on the chopping block. To this end, the decision seems…..defensible? But is Suzuki worth $6 million for each of the next two seasons? That’s a pretty low bar to hop based on free agent prices, but couldn’t the Twins put that money to better use someplace? Time will tell.

If you took the plunge on Suzuki you were no doubt thusly rewarded this season. He entered 2014 as the 37th ranked catcher on our proprietary listings and finished in the top-15. Suzuki’s valuation was exactly a dollar, as only 16 catchers finished in the black (Grandal and Tyler Flowers were the last two).

Steamer projects Suzuki to hit .254/.312/.362 next year — a .300 wOBA. And wouldn’t you know it, that was nearly his exact second-half split this season?

I wouldn’t bank on a rebound or perhaps more accurately a continuation, but if you do here’s what you’re banking on: a solid batting average value (among catchers with over 300 PA, Suzuki’s .288 ranked fourth in the MLB) and a pretty good chance to drive in runs (61 RBI ranked 10th, ahead of Zunino, Jason Castro, Derek Norris, and Wilin Rosario).

It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect Suzuki to drive that many runs in again next year, as the Twins offense will likely be good again and it’s virtually guaranteed that Kurt won’t see any competition behind the plate. And if the No. 12 catcher this year hit just .264 (John Jaso), it wouldn’t be hard to see Suzuki maintaining ‘roster-able’ value in deeper leagues. Certainly not sexy, but thrifty.

If you don’t jump all over the Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy train, you may do OK with Suzuki in batting average leagues. Key word though is ‘may’. Have a short leash.





In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com

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