Aaron Judge, my thank you card is in the mail.

This was my fourth year in the American League only Tout Wars league after winning the inaugural Tout Wars mixed draft league back in 2013. I’ve had two bottom tier finishes, a second place in 2015, and now…a Yoo-Hoo shower! And since this post is partially meant to give me a pedestal to brag from, I will giddily share that I not only won, but set multiple league records along the way as well. My team scored 109 of a possible 120 points, the most in AL Tout history, while my 26 point victory margin was also the most. In addition, I set a couple of category records, and actually won eight of the 10 categories. It was quite the season.

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On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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Recently I created a new dynasty baseball league customized around the basic game of Ottoneu.  The more you play Ottoneu the more you come to appreciate how deep the player pool really is, and the longer I play fantasy baseball the more interested I become in the minor league development process.  While there is still plenty of luck involved, the satisfaction of “discovering” the next Rhys Hoskins before everyone else is a feeling that keeps me coming back to the game over and over.

In addition to the standard economics of Ottoneu where each league consists of twelve owners and 480 rostered players (minors and majors), our league will roster an additional 180 minor leaguers (15 extra per team) in an attempt to “develop” successful franchises for years to come.  Since the regular MLB season is wrapping up soon and many fantasy owners are starting to look towards 2018, I thought it might be helpful to review our prospect draft over the next several posts to give you some insight into the valuation of these minor league lottery tickets.  If nothing else, this draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.  

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Late last season and into the start of this season, I couldn’t stop singing the praises of Robert Gsellman. Gsellman had the pitcher trifecta going on with above average strikeout and groundball rates and a below average walk rate. While I encouraged owners to acquire him, I didn’t completely buy into the transformation. But I still hoped for the best. My reservations and hopes can be linked back to T.J. House and Jacob deGrom and the waning months of 2014 season.

Near the end 2014, House put together a respectable season with a 7.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 61% GB%. They combined to support a 3.35 ERA and I was all in going into 2015. He seemed to be the perfect sleeper candidate with results similar to Dallas Keuchel.

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Back in early April, I wrote a Five Under 50% post in which I implored fantasy owners to invest in the likes of Nick Franklin and Dan Altavilla. I urged readers to steer clear of Marwin Gonzalez, and promised that Edwin Diaz’s job was as safe as they come.

Naturally, Franklin has a 38 wRC+, Altavilla has a 6.60 ERA, Gonzalez has a .419 wOBA, and Diaz is no longer the Mariners closer. Sorry about that.

Before you quit reading this post because, really, why should you trust me, just know that my predictions weren’t all terrible. I also forecasted success for Scott Schebler (.365 wOBA), Mark Reynolds (.419 wOBA), and Ryan Zimmerman (.469 wOBA), who have been among the best hitters in baseball this year.

Not every gamble will pay off. But when it does, it can transform a fantasy team. It’s been about a month and a half since my last Five Under 50% post, and with renewed confidence, I’m prepared to do it again now.

Below are five (actually seven; I cheated) players owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues whom I think may be worth an add in most leagues. There’s no need to jealously yearn for these players later when you can win them now for pennies on the dollar.

1. Chris Taylor (2B/SS/3B; 39%) Read the rest of this entry »

This past weekend, a collection of fantasy baseball veteran nerds gathered in New York City for our annual Tout Wars auction and after-party fun. It’s always one of the best weekends of the year, and this year I got to hang out with fellow RotoGraphers Paul Sporer, Jeff Zimmerman, Al Melchior, and Justin Mason. We represented! Oh, and dare I forget my AL-Only league competitor and representer of every fantasy baseball site on the Internet, Jason Collette.

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We’re entering the final stretch of draft season. For many of you, the so-called advice in this post may be too late. However, it’s my hope that everybody will enjoy discussing the options for good-natured trolling in auction drafts. The nomination process offers several ways to mess with your rivals.

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This post was inspired by Trey Baughn’s Bargain Shopping: Five for $5 from December. With just days remaining before the start of the 2017 baseball season, most fantasy auctions and drafts are completed. However, since some will take place this week, and since most fantasy owners are always interested in making savvy moves to improve their rosters, now is as good a time as any to talk about fantasy bargains. To qualify for this list, players must simply cost less than $6 on the Ottoneu Average Salaries page (sorted by “All game types”) and be beyond rookie status. Getting right into the list: Read the rest of this entry »

Nobody knows whether the great novelist Joseph Conrad played Fantasy baseball. He died in 1924, so perhaps not, but a passage in one of his novels suggests that he envisioned it. In The Secret Agent, a character entertains the “horrible notion that ages of atrocious pain and mental torture could be contained between two successive winks of an eye.” We can now attest to the accuracy of that notion, because we had such an experience in a Fantasy baseball auction last Sunday. We had neglected to stock our catching staff, and, as a result, between those two successive winks we were compelled to place a $7 bid on Francisco Cervelli. “Pain” and “torture” were indeed the centerpieces of our experience in that instant.

We were going to report on the above-referenced auction in this week’s installment, but frankly it’s just too embarrassing. Consistently undervaluing catchers until we were stuck with a $7 Cervelli and a $2 Jason Castro was just the most egregious of our errors. But our loss is your gain, because we decided to write something useful for a change: a review of auction market prices.

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Last night I completed my third straight ottoneu auction in as many nights, and sixth overall so far this draft season. Every year the auctions I’m a part of seem tighter and more difficult, but the massive hours I’ve spent participating in ottoneu auctions the past two seasons has given me a good feel for what to expect. Let’s take a look at the different auction phases, and the strategies for dealing with them.

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