Catchers ADP Market Report: 1/24/22

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Daulton Varsho (+7.55)- Varsho continues to rise as fantasy players become intrigued with his potential to get full time playing time while retaining catcher eligibility. He has pop and speed and unlike last year, he should get pretty close to full time run in center field. I don’t think he is a catcher in real life or fantasy long term, but that is a problem for 2023, not 2022. There is some serious upside here and I am willing to take the gamble. 

Top 100 Players Falling

Salvador Perez (-3.41)- Perez only fell a few spots here, but when we are talking about a second or third round price tag, we always want to keep an eye on it. Perez is coming off of a monster year and accumulates plate appearances in a way few catchers can. However, I still struggle to rationalize taking a catcher this early due to how often they get hurt and while Perez has been remarkably consistent and healthy, I just worry that at some point the wear and tear gets to him. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Mitch Garver (+9.92)- Garver’s ADP continues to rise in spite of only playing in 68 games due to a couple of IL stints that caused him to miss the majority of two months. Hestill hit 13 home runs and had a palatable .256 batting average. His Statcast numbers were very impressive with a 17% barrel percentage and a max exit velocity in the 82 percentile. With Nelson Cruz gone, and Miguel Sano being unreliable, he could easily find more plate appearances at designated hitter or first base which would make him extremely valuable even with the added cost. 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

Top 300 Players Rising

Elias Díaz (+27.2)- Diaz continues to rise in the ADP as drafters look at the weakness of the catcher pool for 2022. Obviously, he gets helped out by playing half his games at Coors, but he was awful on the road (.203/.271/.407) which means unless you are playing in a league where you have the ability to stream him in and out of your lineup, there will be stretches where he actively hurts you. I don’t think the upside of his Coors games are enough to offset the floor of Diaz. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Christian Vázquez (-25.22)- In the last edition of this article, Vazquez was climbing up the ADP, but now he has given back that gain and then some. I think as people started to dig into the profile, it has scared them off of the name value that Vazquez had. Vazquez posted a 2.6% barrel percentage and a career worst hard hit percentage (22.7%). The eight stolen bases were a saving grace for him, but that is pretty fluky considering he had never stolen that many in a season previously. I think there are too many reasons to fade the Boston backstop. 

Travis d’Arnaud (-33.97)- After rising up the ADP, d’Arnaud is now plummeting back down. After having two healthy seasons in 2019 and 2020, he missed nearly two months of the season in 2021 with a torn thumb ligament. Talent has never really been a question for the former top prospect, but he has struggled most of his career with injury and unfortunately with Marcell Ozuna likely destined to occupy the designated hitter role in Atlanta, d’Arnaud likely doesn’t figure to add a ton more plate appearances there. This is another easy fade. 

Mike Zunino (-27.67)- Zunino is coming off of a monster season in which he hit 33 home runs for the Rays in 375 plate appearances. So why is he falling? I think there is the thought that the power will regress a ton. He had never hit more than 25 home runs in a season. However, his StatCast numbers are impressive, posting a 24.3% barrel percentage, a max exit velocity of 117.3 mph, a .535 xSLG, and a .518 xwOBACON. That’s the good news. The bad news is while he crushed lefties to the tune of a .342 average with 16 home runs, he did it with a .375 BABIP and he is a career .223 hitter versus lefties. There will be regression, but the fact that he is an excellent framer and good defensive catcher meaning he won’t lose playing time, so if you can handle the poor average, he is worth consideration especially if the price continues to drop. 

Joey Bart (-27.72)- After rising in the ADP due to the retirement of Buster Posey, Bart has started to slip back down. I am not quite understanding why this is though. I get that he has struggled in limited Major League time, but this a top prospect that has hit at every stop in the minors. With Posey gone, the Giants only have Bart and Curt Casali on the 40-man roster and if Bart can live up to the previous hype, there is opportunity for him to add plate appearances as the Giants DH. I think this is a case of the fantasy community moving on too soon from a top prospect. 

Others of Note

Danny Jansen (+43.85)- Jansen is rising after a scorching hot stretch to end the season in which he hit .322/.385/.763 with six home runs in his last 65 plate appearances from August 31st on. Jansen is a former top prospect that struggled in the Majors up until that point. I think there are reasons to be excited by Jansen’s finish, but my concern is that there is a bit of a logjam at catcher in Toronto. With Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk both still on the roster, I worry about Jansen’s ability to get enough plate appearances to make a huge impact. That being said, I am not fading him because I think there is a possibility the Blue Jays move either him or Kirk at some point once the lockout ends. 

MJ Melendez (+48.59)- Melendez is rising after news that the Royals could use him as the backup catcher and as a utility player when he is not catching. Melendez has put up impressive numbers in AA and AAA in 2021, hitting 41 home runs with a .288/.386/.625 triple slash while only striking out 21.7% clip. Prior to 2021, Melendez struggled with strikeouts every stop along the way, but he not only improved the swing and miss overall, but he actually slightly improved when he moved up levels from AA to AAA. There is a possibility he returns back into the guy he was, but if he can continue this growth, he could be the best sleeper at the position. 

Roberto Pérez (+126.04)- Perez is rising after signing in Pittsburgh where he should be the starting catcher. That being said, he is only useful in the deepest of two catcher leagues.