6/29/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Yulieski Gourriel working out (9:00)
• Erasmo Ramirez interest from LAD (17:00)

Deep Dives:

• Lorenzo Cain DL; Max Kepler as replacement? (23:30)
• Aaron Nola (34:30)
• Devon Travis (42:30)
• Michael Wacha re-visit (48:15)

ROCKIES CORNER:

• Intro (54:00)
• Carlos Estevez; Adam Ottavino looming (54:25)
• Jon Gray (59:00)
• Tyler Anderson (1:05:30)

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On Monday against Cincinnati, Kris Bryant had a literally historic night for the Chicago Cubs. In smashing three home runs and adding a pair of doubles against the Reds, Bryant became the first player in Major League history to achieve the feat. It was the latest chapter in what has been one of the greatest starts to a career for any player, ever. That doesn’t mean that Bryant’s short career to this point hasn’t been without those who have attempted to disparage it, of course.

Some predicted a sophomore slump could be in the cards for Bryant, pointing to a lack of contact, a high strikeout rate, and a reliance on the big fly as potential causes of such a scenario. Additionally, one of the primary criticisms for those who had insisted in disparaging Kris Bryant had been his inability to find consistent success on the road. And to a very realistic extent, his home/road splits in 2015 certainly did lend themselves to that very trend.

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It once again is time for the monthly update for my AL Outfield Tiers! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions. Read the rest of this entry »

Whit Merrifield, Brandon Nimmo, Zach Davies, Steven Moya… These are 4 baseball players. Three are outfielders. One is a pitcher. All are from the United States (or a US territory in Moya’s case). I’m sure there are other common facts about these players (most of us are pretty similar). However, perhaps the most interesting commonality between these 4 players is that all have seen their Ottoneu ownership increase by 10% over the past week. Let’s look at which of these players I would actually consider owning.

Owned in nearly 50% of Ottoneu leagues, Merrifield has burst on to the scene over the past month, posting 5.47 P/G since early May with 2B and OF eligibility. However, his rest of season numbers look far less optimistic. The depth charts here have him posting 3.83 P/G and a .291 wOBA over the rest of the season. This level of production is very near replacement level at 2B. Considering how shallow MI can be, I can see the case for rostering Merrifield, however I do not see much in his skillset to inspire confidence. He appears to be a product of a .389 babip, which has provided some nice production. However, without good plate discipline or power, his production will likely subpar in FGpts leagues. He’s a replacement level player at present. If you need to fill middle infield games he could be worth a roster spot, but I wouldn’t be bidding more than $1-$3 for him in leagues without SBs. While his FGpt outlook isn’t great, Merrifield has exhibited good speed in the minors (32 SBs in AAA last year) and could provide some solid value in 5×5 leagues where owners are in need of steals.

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Agenda

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

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Episode 189 – The Waxahachie Swap (Returns)

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Joe Maddon’s managerial shenanigans, “good Kyle Gibson” showing up, a show-altering pitching change for Miami, picking anyone against James Shields, Miguel Cabrera’s struggles with lefties this year, avoiding the popularity of picking against Edinson Volquez, trying to be excited about Tim Anderson’s matchup, Dylan getting better at Matt’s number guessing game, Mac Williamson’s viability, Archie Bradley’s bad profile photo, and a secret mind-exploding revelation about show-favorite Jhonny Peralta.

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We’re the guys who spurned a late-April trade offer for Drew Smyly, he of the 7-plus ERA over his last ten starts. So of course you want to listen to us when we suggest selling high on a starting pitcher, especially one who’s leading the AL in ERA and Quality Starts. Nonetheless, that’s how we see things with Steven Wright.

You probably know Wright’s story. He was on the road to being a career minor leaguer when, 1n 2011, he had a Pauline conversion to the cult of the knuckleball, made it to the majors at 28 in 2013, found his way into the Red Sox starting rotation last season, and pitched pretty well until suffering a concussion after being hit in the head by a fly ball during the other team’s batting practice—a first, as far as we know. This season, he’s been channeling the 2012-model R.A. Dickey: 2.12 ERA, 8 wins, and 12 Quality Starts in 15 overall. Plus, because he’s a knuckleballer, he’s not doing those horrible things to his arm and shoulder that regular pitchers do, and can last deeper into games (almost 7 innings per start) than other guys. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to speculate on a breakout minor leaguer and the potential for saves.

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The city of Cleveland may never lose again. The Cavaliers won an NBA championship, Stipe Miocic won the heavyweight title, and even their AHL team won a title. Now, the Indians have won 11 in a row, pushing to 46-30 overall. Is it time for a Cleveland heat check?

cavs came back from 3-1. indians are on a 10-game win streak. lake erie monsters won the AHL. might have to put $20 on the browns at 200-1

— alex (@steven_lebron) June 28, 2016

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When looking at Jake Arrieta’s season thus far, it’s really hard to complain. His 1.74 ERA and 0.98 WHIP are virtually indistinguishable from his 2015 combo of 1.77/0.86. Expanding out further, the 28% K rate, 0.3 HR/9, .244 BABIP, and 57% GB rate look virtually identical to the 27%, 0.4, .246, and 56% marks from last year. There has been one stark difference, though. Arrieta’s walk rate has climbed from 6% to 9% this year. To put a finer point on it, he walked 48 batters in all of 2015; he has 40 already this year.

So what’s going on and should we worry at all?

First place I usually look with walk issue is first-pitch strike rate. Is Arrieta falling behind early and losing more hitters? The answer to that is a flat “no”. His 60% rate is the same as it was last year and if you move the decimal out, he’s actually a tiny tick better at 60.4% compared to 60.2%. From there I go to the chase rate. Are batters spitting on more pitches outside of the zone? That is definitely the case so far this year. His O-Swing rate was 34% last year, good for 11th in baseball. He’s down to 29% this year, just 49th among the 96 qualified starters.

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