Agenda

1. More Trade Talk
2. Daily DFS – Carrasco, Holmberg
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – ERod, RdlR, Alvarez, Rajai
5. Factor Grid

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Ignoring those who reinjured themselves or were moved to the bullpen, all of the American League starting pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery last season have now returned. Typically, I ignore these pitchers in fantasy leagues during their first year back and then analyze their results and velocity when forecasting their performance the following season. But a blanket ignore on every TJ surgery returnee might not be prudent, as evidenced by the superhuman Jose Fernandez, whose performance suggests that he hasn’t skipped a beat. So let’s take a look at our three.

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I’m obviously biased, but the MLB trade deadline is the best in sports. Not even soccer transfer windows are this much fun…unless you’re Wilmer Flores. Rather than trade evaluations, we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming. Of course, if you’d prefer the trade coverage, let me know in the comments!

On today’s agenda:
1. Bad news for Matt Holliday
2. Mookie Betts shelved with a concussion
3. Javier Baez watch
4. Welcome back, Travis d’Arnaud
5. Streaming Pitching Options
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Back on June 18th, we hit the waiver wire in search of some arms and came up with six names to consider. We’re headed back to the wire again, but first let’s check in on the six pack of guys recommended last month.

A mixed bag of results with DeSclafani and Young really plummeting, Latos and Hahn (injured, unfortunately) pitching really well, Hendricks holding a great WHIP with a passable ERA and Gallardo giving a strong ERA to counter his god-awful WHIP. Of course, if there wasn’t a good bit of risk tied to these guys, they wouldn’t have been on the wire in the first place.

Let’s see if we can find some more gold or at least a bunch of cool silver. The threshold these guys have to pass through to be included is to be on rosters in fewer than 50% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. I don’t have a firm baseline for CBS leagues mainly because I don’t think they have a place where you can scroll through players with all the ownership rates right there, so I get my pool of potential pitchers by scouring ESPN/Yahoo! roster rates and then check the rates on CBS. If someone is north of 75% at CBS, I usually pass (although Gallardo was 77% there in June’s waiver piece), but ideally they are at 65% or lower there.

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Alejandro De Aza, Red Sox
After flirting with a 20-20 season in 2013 — coming three home runs short of the feat — Alejandro De Aza has seemingly taken a step back. The left-handed hitting outfielder has a pedestrian .260/.316/436 line this year, however opposing southpaws have picked on him this season, more than any other in recent years. In 38 plate appearances versus southpaws this year, De Aza has posted a 7 wRC+. Small sample size will of course play havoc with stats, but man, that is rough. Still, he is more than adequate in most formats when facing right-handers. Read the rest of this entry »

One trend that is unavoidable in baseball is that Home Run power is dissipating. Since the peak year of HR production in 2000, the number of HR’s hit has dropped by almost 27%. A full 10% of that drop happened between 2013 and 2014. A HR was hit every 29.4 AB’s in 2000 and that number was 39.6 in 2014. Some numbers for your viewing pleasure….

Statistics Courtesy of the Seattle Times

For once we don’t need to dwell on the reasons for this decline—they are well known.  As with any obstacle we are presented with an opportunity. It is fairly easy to identify the players who are proven HR hitters and capable of providing power within the more restrictive confines of the new normal. Wouldn’t it be wonderful to find an emerging power hitter who provides a measurable advantage in the HR category at a position generally not associated with HR prowess? Enter Mr. Jonathan Schoop, second baseman for the Baltimore Orioles.

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He did once. Can he again?

Ian Kennedy has been one of the least valuable starting pitchers of 2015, a fact probably unsurprising to San Diego residents and his fantasy owners. Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings and generated negative wins above replacement (WAR), his ratio of strikeouts to walks (3.18 K/BB) and xFIP (3.83) rise to the top of an admittedly short list.

Still, his rate of strikeouts per nine innings (8.31 K/9) ranks 36th among all starters, and his walks-per-nine (2.62 BB/9) is nothing to sneeze at, either. It’s easy to see why fantasy owners hold out hope: his adequacy in preventing baserunners points to reasons why his 4.58 ERA is, perhaps, too high.

Unfortunately, Kennedy is a fly ball machine who has (almost) never enjoyed the friendly confines of a pitcher’s park. Per ESPN’s Park Factors, Kennedy’s home parks have mostly benefited hitters:

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Episode 79 – Rubby De La Rosa is Living in a Big House

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss attempts to assess the Blue Jays facing Jerome Williams, a bad A.J. Pierzynski joke, Matt rubbing his chin in approval, Francisco Liriano’s strong matchup, Chris Tillman’s possible turnaround, running on Tyson Ross, Erasmo Ramirez being continually underrated, and Matt selling his comic books.

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Agenda

1. It’s the Standings, Stupid
2. Daily DFS – Lester, McCullers
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nelson, Buchanan, Adonis, Dyson
5. Factor Grid

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In the wake up the Troy Tulowitzki trade, it’s an all-Rockies waiver wire edition this week. That’s because the speculation is that the newly acquired Jose Reyes won’t be spending very much time in Colorado and may very well be shipped right back out. The two names highlighted here could be manning shortstop the rest of the way. Or not, and remain worthless, if Reyes stays in Colorado.

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