Archive for June, 2011

Eric Thames and Mike Stutes: Deep League Waiver Wire

I really feel for you deep leaguers. Every week I get so excited to uncover those hidden gems, but I feel like maybe I am looking in the wrong cave. I keep just finding piles of dirt. Yeah, so I don’t know where I am going with this, but maybe these dudes could help you.

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Where’s Werth’s Power?

Jayson Werth stayed healthy and blossomed into one of the game’s best players in Philadelphia, topping five Wins Above Replacement each season from 2008-2010 while providing patience, power and speed. But no free agent signing generated more debate this past offseason than Washington’s seven-year, $126 million pact with the 32-year-old outfielder.

The controversy surrounding Werth’s deal had to do with its length — few doubted that he would rake at the beginning of his contract, but would he be worth over $20 million per year by the time Stephen Strasburg resumed racking up Ks and Bryce Harper began droppin’ bombs and blowin’ kisses in the majors?

We’re still years away from finding out the answer to that question. But there’s a more immediate concern for owners who dropped an early pick on Werth: he’s not hitting right now. Werth has a .224/.329/.391 line in 2011. Granted, Nationals Park isn’t especially friendly to right-handed hitters, decreasing offense by about three percent compared to a neutral stadium. But Werth’s production falls well short of his pre-season .263/.360/.475 ZiPS projection. Why is Werth stumbling in D.C.? Let’s take a look.

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Three American League Outfielders You Should Add

This stretch of the season is often the toughest for owners. Most of the big breakouts have already happened (hello, Michael Pineda, Alex Avila and Matt Joyce), plenty of the bounceback candidates have proved they can still play (right, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett?) and many of the elite prospects have been called up (thanks, Eric Hosmer, Jordan Lyles and Dustin Ackley). That leaves owners who missed out on those players to seek help either via trade or by identifying — and adding — players who have underperformed so far. This late in the game, it’s a trickier decision-making process because all the options come with some ugly pock marks (hence, the underperforming and all), but there are always a few possibilities for second-half surges. Like these three American League outfielders.

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Jesus Montero and Devin Mesoraco: Catching Prospects We’d Like to See But Probably Won’t

With so many articles designed to help you win your fantasy league this season, it’s time we threw some out to the bottom-feeders, especially those in keeper and dynasty leagues.  While most of the competitors currently in the lower third of your league’s standings couldn’t care less about what’s going on today, it is the wise and savvy GM that continuously prepares for the future.  With so much young talent behind the dish these days, it only makes sense to see what’s out there beyond the horizon.  So here’s a look at a couple of top catching prospects that could debut with a late season call-up this year, but will likely be forced to wait in the minors until their time comes in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »


Webb, Hughes, Santana, Broxton: DL Pitchers

Brandon Webb (shoulder): Brandon made his 4th AA rehab start of the season last Friday and it wasn’t good:

2/3 an inning, 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 K, 1 BB.

The rest of his AA starts haven’t been much better.

4 games, 9.75 ERA, 6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 over 12 innings.

I still think there some possible value left in Brandon and he may be worth keeping in a DL spot for a while longer. First, his ERA is bloated from a 0.444 BABIP and 58% LOB%. Currently his FIP is at 4.75, while not great, it is half of his ERA. Second, his fastball speed has been between 85 to 87 MPH in his starts so far. This value may seem low, but his average speed was around 88 MPH during his better MLB seasons. While the speed is down a bit, it is not that far off his previous values.

There is no reason to totally give on him over 12 innings, but I would be keeping track of his progress and see if he can begin to put it together.

Phil Hughes (shoulder): Phil’s ownership rate has crept up as he is getting closer to coming off the DL. In his first rehab start his fastball speed topped out at 95MPH. In his second start, it was a little slower topping out at 93 MPH and was in the range of 91 to 93 MPH. Even though he threw a little slower the second time out, his fastball speed is up ~3 MPH from his starts earlier this season. His fastball seems effective since he has gotten 10 minor leaguers to strike out in 7.2 IP.

He should be continue to be held in a DL spot and his minor league outings monitored.

Johan Santana (shoulder): It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the Mets out of contention, there is no real reason to rush him back.

Bartolo Colon (hamstring): Tonight (Monday), Bartolo will pitch a simulated game to see how healed his hamstring is right now. After the outing, the Yankees will then have a better idea of a return timeline.

Jonathan Broxton (shoulder): Jonathan was supposed to join the Dodgers soon, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder on Saturday. It looks like his return will be put on hold. He was supposed to return to the Dodger’s closer role, but not for now.


Lucas Duda & Roger Bernadina: NL OF

Let’s check in on two outfield situations that might produce a waiver wire prize.

Roger Bernadina, Washington (16% owned in Yahoo)
My preseason favorite for a starting job has meandered his way back into a role for now, but how long will it last? Rick Ankiel could return and push the Shark out of his territory, as improbable as that sounds considering the former pitcher’s sub-.550 OPS. Still, when he returns in early July he should at least have above-average power and a rocket arm in center field, two things that Bernadina probably won’t manage. With the team making its way to respectability, and the fact that Bernadina is under team control for longer, the most likely plan has the Shark retaining his playing time somewhere on the diamond. Laynce Nix won’t keep his batting average looking this useful, or so says his career .247 batting average. Then again, he has a .322 BABIP and a .316 xBABIP based on his mix of batted balls. And he’s always had good power. And while we’re here, we might as well mention that Bernadina’s .256 career batting average and ZiPs RoS is just as pessimistic about his chances to keep producing at this level. And yet, Bernadina’s .344 BABIP is two points lower than his xBABIP. He’s got wheels and is hitting the ball on the ground (2.13 GB/FB ratio). Both outfielders might continue to show better batting averages than they have in their careers. If only one of Nix, Ankiel and Bernadina were right-handed, there might be a platoon to be had. In the end, though, as exciting as this run of competence from the Nationals has been, the team must look to the future. That means more of Shark roaming the outfield.

Lucas Duda, New York NL (0% owned)
Really, this blurb might as well start with Jason Bay and get it over with. Carlos Beltran will miss the occasional game, but if Duda wants to get enough plate appearances to be even deep-league relevant, he’ll need to steal some time from Bay. Lately, there’s been a few days where Terry Collins has given Bay ‘mental health’ days off, but if the expensive Omar Minaya acquisition returns to even 80% Jason Bay levels, Duda may find himself back in the minors shortly. Unfortunately, counting last year, we now have over 600 plate appearances of Bay sporting an HR/FB rate just around five. Hitting a career low in fly balls is not helping matters this year, either. Other than his expensive contract, there’s little reason to believe that he deserves time on a major league corner outfield right now. Which is not to say that Duda necessarily does either. He hasn’t found his power stroke just like Bay. But he’s only put up 65 plate appearances. Given time, he could hit .250+ with above-average power — his ISO has been .295 the last two years in Triple-A — and that’s more than you can say for Bay right now. Duda’s an okay flier in the deepest of leagues.


Dickey, Stauffer, Wolf: Waiver Wire

Nothing like some NL starting pitchers to help boost a fantasy staff, so here’s three quality guys that could be had for free(-ish) on the waiver wire…

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The Return of Joakim Soria

If nothing else, Joakim Soria’s 2011 season has proven the true volatility of the closer position. After some early struggles; which led to five blown saves and a brief demotion, Soria appears to have returned to form. While it’s difficult to evaluate his performance due to his tiny innings sample, there appears to be some evidence that suggests Soria may have truly returned to his former level of dominance. Still, if Soria slips up again, Aaron Crow is still waiting in the wings to reclaim the closer job. Does Soria have what it takes to permanently keep the job this time?
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Small Sample Size Fun: 30 Day Surprise xFIP Leaders

I tend to ignore small sample size trends and usually throw up a little in my mouth when I read that so and so pitcher is “hot”. But sometimes, these positive trends are actually the result of quiet mechanical changes or the so-called light bulb suddenly going off. Of course, it is very difficult to pick out which pitchers are experiencing a real change in skill and which are just having a good run. Anyhow, I decided to have some fun and sort by xFIP over the last 30 days and peruse the first page of the leaderboard. Some of the more surprising names I found were…

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Week 13 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 13 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Floyd

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: none

Well all right then, let’s take a look at Gavin Floyd. When you think of consistent pitchers, Floyd probably isn’t the first guy to come to mind. But since 2009 here are his xFIPs:

3.64
3.69
3.71

Still, Floyd does not seem to be the same pitcher so far in 2011 that he was in the recent past. His K/9 is down, as is his BB/9. Fortunately, his BABIP is 46 points lower than it was a season ago. Looking at his Pitch Types, we have some classification issues going on. Floyd has always relied heavily on his slider but this year he is shown with a cutter rather than a slider. Both pitches were/are strongly positive.

Where we notice a difference is with his curve. It was a great pitch for him in 2009 and solidly above average last year. So far in 2011, it’s right around average. Historically, Floyd has struggled with his off-speed pitches early in the season, but here by late June you would expect to have had him already worked out those kinks.

Instead, Floyd has allowed 10 ER in his last 13 IP and in his last five games he has a 6.08 ERA. He has been victimized by the gopher ball this season. He has allowed 4 HR in his last 26.2 IP and overall this season he’s surrendered 11 HR in 94 IP. Last year he gave up just 14 HR in 187.1 IP.

Floyd has really struggled at home this year, where he’s served up 6 HR balls in 38 IP and carries a 5.21 ERA. Overall, he shows no preference for home or road, with his lifetime ERAs by that split within 0.20 in his career. But this year he has done his best work in road parks, where he has a 3.70 ERA in 56 IP.

This week he has two road starts, as he squares off against the Rockies and Cubs. And while this may seem like real trouble for a pitcher with gopher ball issues, the Rockies are only fifth in the NL in HR at home and the Cubs rank 10th.

There are more negatives than positives for Floyd this week, so if you have the depth you should consider giving him the week off.