I have had several discussion in the comment here at Fangraphs that the players we discuss are not available in the reader’s leagues. I decided to look at the percentages owned at ESPN and Yahoo and see how they compare. Also I will look at what size of league in total players on rosters corresponds to what percentage owned.

I have seen some huge discrepancies in the owned percent between Yahoo and ESPN. I took the percentages of the top 250 owned pitchers and hitters. I didn’t match them up, I was more looking at just the percentages. What I found was that there were basically 3 zones of players. Those owned by all teams (>90%), those owned by some teams (more than 10% and less than 90%), and those owned by few teams (<10%). Of the 500 total players 194 were in the top 90% for ESPN and the top 114 for Yahoo. In next bracket of players, ESPN has 107 in that group and Yahoo has 245. ESPN leagues seem to take more top players and then drop off quickly, while more of the middle players are used in Yahoo. This leads to be believe that Yahoo has larger leagues as a rule and the percentage owned will be higher.

The following data is the percent owned for the different sized leagues. The number is for the total number of players (roster size * number of teams).

Total Players Yahoo ESPN
200 – 66% 87.8%
250 – 45% 58.4%
300 – 26% 11.5%
350 – 11% 3.7%
400 – 6% 1.7%
450 – 3% 0.5%
500 – 1% 0.2%

With these numbers and taking into account previous comments, I will write only on percent owned cutoffs for leagues of 300 total players or higher.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

Time for another edition of Waiver Wire here at RotoGraphs. I’ll leave the obvious (Justin Smoak “on the water“) out and try to delve a little deeper.

Clay Buchholz | SP | Red Sox (43% owned)
It’s a little too early to put too much stock into the young Red Sox hurler’s high K-rate (9.72), which is the best of his young career. By the same token, the sample size is too small to depend on his nice ERA or above-average groundball rate. So let’s instead look at his pitching mix. His velocity is up across the board, and he’s using his slider a little more and his fastball a little less. Linear weights say that’s a good sign, given the values of his fastball (-19.1 runs career) and slider (+6.4 runs career) respectively. What is a little strange even in a young season is his curveball use, which is down to a career low (8%). Considering he almost threw it a quarter of the time in 2008, and it’s listed as his best pitch by many, that’s a little worrisome. No matter, the curve is still getting a good whiff rate (17.4% so far), as are his other two off-speed pitches (22+% for the slider and change). He’s locating the fastball well (64.7% strike percentage), it’s just not getting any whiffs (7.6%). Perhaps he should use it even less.

Tom Gorzelany | SP | Cubs (4% owned)
It looks like Gorzelany is in the rotation to stay – at least until the mercurial Lou Piniella changes his mind yet again and moves Carlos Zambrano back to the rotation. Gorz (seriously, this guy needs a nickname) seems to be doing it by relying on the slide-piece a little more than usual. Last year, he threw the pitch about 16% of the time, and this year that percentage is up over 30%. Again, the linear weights agree with the decision, as his slider has historically been his only positive pitch (+5.7 runs career). He also got 16% whiffs on it last year, up to 19% this year. It’s hard to tell what his true fastball/cutter relationship is (the systems are a little wonky on that going back over the years), but his mix has changed, and all systems are go. Other than home runs (zero allowed), the luck stats have been in his favor, and his mid-3s xFIP seems to be the best guidepost. It looks like the Cubs found something here.

Ryan Raburn | OF | Tigers (2% owned)
With the news that Carlos Guillen is yet again heading to the most comfortable of places for him – the DL – there are some ABs up for grabs in Detroit. Raburn was already taking at-bats at second base (he’s started there three times), and while callup Brennan Boesch has some promise, the bet here is that the veteran team leans on Raburn in the meantime. While it’s a little worrisome that his walk rate is down and his strikeout rate is up, Raburn is also suffering from a poor BABIP (.267), and it’s early going. The only significant stat right now, swing rate, is only up 2%, and he’s reaching less. Look for all around good play (especially against lefties) eventually and more ABs in the short term.

We looked at the National League closers earlier today, so the American League contingent is now due for some love.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Put up your hand if you’re surprised to see Rivera under the “strong performance” column. Hmm, no one. The ageless wonder has yet to allow an earned run this season and he’s a perfect 6-for-6 in save opps. A couple things to note, though: His strikeout rate is down about 2.0 K/9, and he has a BABIP of .179. He’s been very good, but his domination of the league is not going to last forever.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: The Royals bullpen leads the AL with five blown saves so far this season, but you cannot fault Soria. The right-hander has been successful in four of his five tries. He’s given up just three hits and one walk on the year, and has nine Ks in 6.0 innings of work. Soria was perfect in save opportunities this past week (2-for-2 against Minnesota and Toronto).

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Free agent Valverde did not come cheap during the off-season but he’s been worth every penny so far for the Tigers. The veteran’s five-save total is tied for second in the AL and his ERA currently sits at 1.29. He’s given up four hits in 7.0 innings but has just four Ks. He was a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities this past week.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is tied for the AL lead in saves with Rivera and Jon Rauch. The Mariners closer has yet to allow a run this season and he’s given up just one hit and two walks. He also has seven Ks to his credit. Those 38 saves in ’09 appear to have been for real, and playing in Seattle has really helped his fly-ball tendencies. He was 2-for-2 in save opps this past week.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Cubs fans are probably scratching their heads right about now. Gregg… a strong performer? Well, he’s wrestled the closer’s job away from Jason Frasor and is a perfect 4-for-4 in saves. Even odder, his control has been outstanding and he has yet to walk a batter in 6.1 innings. He’s allowed just four hits and has seven strikeouts.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Although his overall numbers are pretty average, Rauch has successfully ended six wins without a blown save. His ERA sits at 1.29 and he’s given up six hits in 7.0 innings. Rauch has recorded five Ks.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon’s teammates have been struggling but he’s done what he’s been asked to do with three saves in as many tries. He has, though, taken one loss on the season. Papelbon has also given up six walks – with just 4 Ks – in 8.1 innings, so he’s clearly not at his best right now. The main culprit appears to be a lack of command with his fastball. He was solid in his last game (against Texas on April 21) with one strikeout and five ground-ball outs in two innings.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The sophomore closer finally has some saves to his credit after knocking them out over the past eight days. Bailey’s strikeout rate is a little puzzling, as it’s down from 9.83 to 3.60 K/9 this season over last. He hasn’t struck out a batter since April 12, and his last one prior to that was on opening day. On the positive side, he has just one walk.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The juggernaut Rays club has not needed to rely too heavily on its closer so far this season. When he’s been called upon, though, Soriano has been perfect with four saves in as many chances. He also has a win to his credit. Soriano has appeared in just one game over the past week.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Closing for a team whose offense is last in the Majors in batting average means there probably aren’t going to be a ton of save opportunities coming your way (unless you have great starting pitching). Jenks has been perfect so far this year in terms of saves, but he’s had just three chances. His ERA sits at 1.50 and he’s struck out eight in 6.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: After hitting some turbulence in the early going, things appear to be leveling out for Perez. In three appearances during the past seven days, the former Cardinal was 2-for-2 in save opportunities and, perhaps more importantly, he did not allow a walk in 2.2 innings. Perez had previously walked five batters in three innings of work. He’s actually only given up runs in one appearance this season (3 in 1.0 IP vs Detroit on April 11).

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Just activated off the disabled list, Fuentes blew a save against Detroit on April 21. He gave up two runs in two-thirds of an inning on two walks, two hits and a homer. He’ll likely get a chance to redeem himself this weekend.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: The 20 year old Feliz has stolen the closer’s gig away from Frank Francisco and the rookie is a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities so far. He has 10 Ks in 6.2 innings and has given up just two hits on the year (both came on Opening Day).

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Johnson has taken over the role from the injured (and ineffective) Mike Gonzalez. Johnson has had a bit of a rough introduction to the role, as he blew his first two save opportunities of the year on April 13 and 17. He finally notched his first successful save on April 18 in Oakland. Johnson is worth a pick-up considering that Gonzalez is probably out for a while, but the new closer won’t record a ton of strikeouts or be overly dominant.

Let’s get this party started.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: It seems weird to see Broxton with just one save on the year, but he continues to throw well. The right-hander has yet to allow an earned run this season in 5.2 innings. He’s issued one walk and nine Ks. Now might be a good time to try and get him in a trade since his fantasy value is down through no fault of his own.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: The Giants’ closer is in a similar situation to Broxton’s. Wilson has pitched very well but he has just two saves on the year. He has yet to allow a run in 5.1 innings and he’s given up just one hit with six Ks.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The single-season saves leader is just not getting the opportunities this season. Rodriguez has one save on the year in two opportunities. He’s still giving fantasy owners some value, though, as his ERA is solid at 1.17 and he has 11 Ks in 7.2 innings of work.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season. The right-hander has yet to allow an earned run while recording three saves in four tries. He’s walked four batters in 7.1 innings, but he’s also recorded 10 Ks. This past week, Nunez recorded strikeouts on five on the six batters he retired. He’s probably not still flying under the radar in your fantasy league but, if he is (83% owned in Yahoo leagues), snatch him up.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps continues to be proof that spring training is meaningless. The right-hander has recovered from his brutal March to lead the NL in saves with seven (in as many tries). It really can pay off to be a closer on a bad team. Capps has saved all but one of the club’s wins so far this season. Don’t overpay for him in a trade, though. He’s still not the most dominating or proven end-game option. Capps has allowed eight hits and six walks in 8.1 innings this season.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom is one of just a handful of closers in the NL that has yet to blow a save. Interestingly, he also has yet to issue a walk and his lack of control was a problem for him last season in Florida. Lindstrom’s value rose a lot this past week as he recorded four saves in as many appearances (and has saved 80% of the team’s wins). He did allow four hits, though.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Carlos Zambrano is in the bullpen for now, but he shouldn’t be a threat to Marmol, who has been pitching well. On the year, the right-hander is showing improved control with just three walks in 7.2 innings and he’s added 14 Ks. Marmol has converted three saves on the season but he went 0-for-1 in save opportunities this past week.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero is currently second in the NL in saves with six. He’s blown just one save. Cordero has a slightly-elevated ERA at 3.12 and he’s given up eight hits and four walks in 8.2 innings of work on the season. This past week, he was 2-for-3 in saves and one particularly awful appearance (2 ER, 3 BB, 2 H in 0.2 IP) against Pittsburgh, which has skewed his numbers. He’s a borderline Strong Performer.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is tied for fourth in the NL with four saves. He continues to be a possible mid-season trade target for playoff-bound teams in need of bullpen help. However, San Diego is currently playing well enough to be considered a possible playoff team (thanks to its position in the NL West). Bell has given up his fair share of base runners with seven hits and three walks allowed in six innings. He was 2-for-3 in save opps this past week and gave up five hits in three innings.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: It cost the Braves organization quite a bit to obtain him in the off-season (a first round pick, and a salary dump of Rafael Soriano) but Wagner has yet to prove his worth. The veteran closer has just one save in two tries. On the plus side, though, he does have 11 Ks in 6.0 innings of work. Fantasy owners were rewarded for their faith in him, despite zero save opps, as he recorded a win this past week.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Fantasy managers were wary of Franklin during 2010 drafts and his 4.50 ERA might suggest the caution was justified. However, the veteran pitcher has been successful in all five of his save opportunities and he currently sits third in the league in saves. In eight overall innings, he has yet to walk a batter but he’s given up eight hits and has just three Ks. In other words, he might help your save totals, but that’s about all he’s going to (positively) impact. One thing to note, though: Franklin has given up six of his eight hits and all four of his runs in two outs (April 5, 16).

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: With save opportunities few and far between recently, Hoffman appeared in just one game this past week and it was during the 20-0 laugher against Pittsburgh. If you own Hoffman, he is probably better off on your bench right now as he currently has a 10.50 ERA with nine hits allowed in 6.0 innings.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Dotel currently sports a 7.71 ERA but to be honest, you could do worse. The right-hander has one win and three saves in four opportunities. The aging reliever can still miss bats (9 Ks in 7.0 IP) and he plays for Pittsburgh, so you know there could be a lot of narrow leads to protect.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The D-Backs’ bullpen has been just brutal this season (leading the Majors with six blown saves) and Qualls deserves a great deal of the blame. He may not be long for the closer role if this keeps up. He currently has a 10.80 ERA and has given up 13 hits in 6.2 innings. Qualls has saved just two games in four opportunities. He gave up four runs in 2.1 innings this past week, including a complete meltdown against St. Louis on April 21. Avoid.

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Brad Lidge, currently on the DL, might have a job to come back to after all. Madson has struggled in his current role to some degree, although he has saved three games in four tries. The young closer has given up 10 hits and two walks in 7.0 innings this season. He allowed three runs against Atlanta during his last outing on April 20, and took the blown save.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Morales has not been the dominating late-game reliever that the Rockies club had been hoping for when it anointed him the closer in the wake of Huston Street’s injury. Morales has blown two saves in five tries and he’s struck out just four batters in 6.2 innings. If he continues to struggle, Manny Corpas or even Matt Daley might get a save opportunity or two.

With Chris Davis struggling to do much of anything at the plate, the Rangers turned to their cache of prospects and called up one of the game’s very best, first baseman Justin Smoak. Based on how they handled Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon (during his second call-up), they promoted Smoak with the intention of playing him, not to use him as a spot starter/pinch hitter.

CHONE projects a meager .240/.340/.363 batting line with eight homers for the former South Carolina standout, but I think that’s selling him short. During his 14-game stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City (an obviously small sample), Smoak hit .326/.500/.587 with a gaudy 6/16 K/BB ratio, which is as many walks as Davis has drawn in the last ten months. His career minor league line sits at .295/.413/.465. Smoak doesn’t offer a tremendous amount of power, but he’s going to play half his games in a park that has inflated homeruns nearly 20% over the last three years. Double digit bombs is certainly in the realm of possibility, plus he’ll score plenty of runs because he’s an on-base monster.

The one concern is that even though he’s a switch hitter, Smoak does have a rather pronounced platoon split – .324/.443/.505 vs. RHP, .215/.304/.331 vs. LHP – in his pro career according to minorleaguesplits.com. There’s plenty of quality lefthanders in the AL West, so he might not be an every day starter for your team, at least initially.

Ike Davis‘ promotion to the big leagues was much more ballyhooed because of his market, but Smoak is a superior fantasy option in essentially every single way. He’s owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, so run out and grab him if you need some help at first or could use a nice trade chip.

As for (Chris) Davis, expect his playing time to take a pretty significant hit, and don’t be surprised to see him wind back up in the minors for a little wake-up call. The 1B/3B eligibility is nice, but he fantasy value is as low as can be. Swinging at one out of every three pitches out of the zone is no way to live life.

I am in a 20 team league, 25 roster spots with 4 DL slots. To say the least, it is pretty deep. When looking for players on the waiver wire, availibilities max out around 2%. When I started in the league, I was one of 4 expansion teams, with the other 16 teams having 9 keeps. Basically the top 144 players were taken before I even began, along with the top prospects like Heyward and Strasburg. Going into the draft, I didn’t know how much to value prospects.

I went in with the keepers(this is pretty sad, I know):

Ryan Doumit
Jose Valverde
Shane Victorino
Chone Figgins
Javier Vazquez
Matt Capps
Chad Qualls
Tim Hudson
Jason Kubel

Here was my plan and the results:

1. I was going to get batters first.

Asdrubal Cabrera
Garrett Jones
Juan Rivera
Scott Sizemore
Travis Snider

2. Go for starting pitchers with issues last year.

Fausto Carmona
Edinson Volquez (took with last pick and moved to the DL)
Ervin Santana

3. Draft a couple of top prospects in the minors, but near the majors. I never trust pitching prospects, so I only took hitters. I wanted to get them somewhat early before there was a run. In the draft, I actually started the prospect run.

Jesus Montero
Mike Stanton

4. Find whatever else I could including any SP/RP qualified relievers because the league has only 3 RP slots and counts holds.

As a whole I am fairly happy with the results of the draft. The season hasn’t gone the best so far though, but it is early.

I am just torn setting up my daily roster that 2 player will probably not be available until later this year at the earliest. It is the whole, “I can do more to win now, but how much will it hurt me in the future.” For now I will just let the 2 sit, but was wondering how other dealt with this issue of how much a keeper’s teams roster is taken up with prospects in order to try to help the team later?

Once a pitcher holds the Yankees offense to two runs in six innings, fantasy owners sit up and take notice. In their defense, the 39% of Yahoo fantasy owners that still don’t own Dallas Braden have an excuse. For most of his career, Braden has had a strikeout rate closer to five than to the ML average (usually in the high sixes). That poor strikeout rate hasn’t been mitigated by a nice groundball rate either – Braden only burns worms at a 37.6% rate over his career. In fact, it’s hard to tell exactly what he’s done right, except a better-than-average walk rate (2.87 career) and a good changeup (+12.9 runs career).

Well, something’s changed, hasn’t it? Change is the key word here because Braden’s success this year has come from eschewing his fastball (-17.9 runs career) in favor of that changeup. So far this year, he’s throwing the changepiece 32% of the time (compared to 21.4% and 20.1% over the past two years). Just judging by the linear weights, that’s been a good idea, but there’s more to it. His changeup is getting a 22.1% whiff rate this year (anything around 20% is generally thought of as elite – for comparison’s sake, Johan Santana’s changeup had a 17.4% whiff rate last year). Braden’s fastball? A 7% whiff rate. What’s even better is that the fastball only got a 4.4% whiff rate last year – so using his changeup more has made his fastball even better.

Finally, we get to today’s start against the Yankees. Braden threw 81 pitches, and 21 were changeups, for a slightly-below average 26% for him. Even today’s number was above last year’s level, and it’s important to note that these numbers came from a crude Gameday tally, which may have classified some pitches a little differently. In any case, Braden is still going to the changeup more often, even though the 21 changeups today garnered only one whiff. A quick (sanity) check of last year’s whiff totals on the pitch shows that he got 13.7% whiff rates on the pitch last year in a larger sample size. It is reasonable to assume that using the changeup, and its better whiff rates, more often than his fastball is a good choice for Braden and that it will lead to better results.

It seems that Alex Rodriguez ran across the mound while heading back to first after a foul ball in today’s game. Some pitchers – like Braden – take offense to a player touching his mound. The event was timed to coincide with some discussion about Billy Beane saying that Braden had moxie. Well, Braden showed his moxie by barking at Rodriguez and showing him who was king of the hill, and then willing the Athletics to a victory despite two home runs and a triple play by the Yankees. Hopefully, he’ll combine that moxie with continued focus on his changeup. Fantasy owners will rejoice.

Here are four players with low ownership rates that could give your team a little boost…

Jaime Garcia | SP | Cardinals (25% owned)

St. Louis has allowed the second fewest runs in the league thanks in large part to their fifth starter, who through two starts has held opponents to just five hits and five walks in 13 innings. Of course, Garcia won’t be able to maintain his .158 BABIP all season, and his 6.92 K/9 isn’t eye-popping, but he has some favorable matchups coming up. You still have time to grab him for tomorrow’s start at the Giants, and after that he takes on the Braves (.310 team wOBA) at home. There’s always the potential for some Dave Duncan magic as well.

Doug Fister | SP | Mariners (10%)

Fister has stepped right in for the injured Cliff Lee and has pitched about as well as Seattle could have hoped. Like Garcia, he’s enjoying the benefits of an absurdly low BABIP (.212), though his might be slightly more sustainable because he’s playing in front of he mother of all defenses. At some point it’ll all come crashing down for Fister, who’s posted a 1.42 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP through his first three starts, but there’s isn’t a damn thing wrong with enjoying the hot start while it lasts. His next start comes at the White Sox this weekend.

Jeff Keppinger | 2B, 3B, SS | Astros (5%)

I know, I know. The Astros’ offense is terrible, but Keppinger is the only guy in the lineup pulling his weight. He’s been playing every day at mostly second base, but fantasy owners will enjoy the multi-position eligibility he acquired last season. Don’t expect him to help your counting stats at all, because apparently no one else in Houston feels like getting on base or driving a run in, but his .317 AVG (.333 BABIP) will help almost every fantasy team.

Mike Lowell | 3B | Red Sox (21%)

As the David Ortiz Era comes to a painful end, Lowell has found his name in the starting lineup in three of the last seven games. He even pinch hit for Big Papi on Tuesday night. Lowell has hit well in his limited action (.375, 1 HR, SSS obviously), and he could be in line for even more starts since the Sox are scheduled to face four lefthanded starters in their next seven games. It might be a little too late to pick him up for tonight’s matchup against C.J. Wilson, though. Fourteen of Boston’s next 20 games are at home, and Lowell has a .386 career wOBA at Fenway.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Every season we have unexpected hot starts from a multitude of players around the Majors. Some are for real, some are just a tease. The home run is one of the more valuable fantasy categories in many leagues. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 home run hitters in the Majors and try to sort out who’s legit and who’s going to make novice fantasy players look silly in the long run.

At the beginning of the season, I would have called you insane for telling me Vernon Wells would be leading the Majors in homers. After all, he’s coming off of three pretty lousy seasons (1.5 WAR or worse). But I’ve seen him with my own eyes quite a few times this season and that swing is for real. The outfielder had wrist surgery this past off-season, for an issue that had been dogging for, well, apparently for about three years. His approach still makes me cringe, as he pulls absolutely everything (even wild pitches headed for the first base dugout), so his average is probably going to suffer. As long pitchers keep making mistakes out and over the plate, though, Wells is going to cream pitches for doubles and homers.

I’ve been touting Matt Kemp as a 2010 breakout candidate for a while now and it looks like he might be ready to make me look smart. He’s hitting for power and average, while also driving in most of L.A.’s runs (20 in 14 games). He has a legit shot at a 30-30 season if he improves his stolen base rate.

Mr. Late Bloomer Nelson Cruz is out to prove that his ’09 season was not a fluke. He’s going to strikeout a fair bit and he probably isn’t going to hit .300, but a 30+ homer season is definitely within reason. Oh, and check out the three steals… another 20+ SB season, would certainly make him an even more attractive fantasy player.

If you think Wells is a shocking addition to the home run leader board, you’re probably on the floor with a tingly left side now that you’ve seen Jose Guillen’s name on the board. I mean, it’s almost like his contract is up or somethi- What? Oh. Guillen is currently hitting like a man possessed, but who knows if or when the streak will end. Enjoy it while it lasts and don’t feel bad for picking him up and riding the hot bat. (And yes, I know he apparently almost died last year from a clot).

I don’t think we really need to get too in-depth here with Chase Utley. He’s the best offensive second baseman on the planet (and a pretty nifty defender to boot). End of story.

Uh, well, the same thing goes for Mr. Pujols. The home runs are no surprise and they should not let up any time soon. The scary thing is that he’s actually kind of slumping right now. And it says a lot about his talent when we consider a .423 wOBA a slump…

Apparently nobody told Dustin Pedroia that 5’9” second basemen are not supposed to hit homers. He’s hit some dingers in the past, but he’s on pace for more than 20 homers this season. Alex Gonzalez opened the season with a real bang. His power output has slowed down somewhat over the past week but he still has five homers and eight doubles. He has hit more than 20 homers in a season, so the home-run burst is not that out of character.

Colby Rasmus is showing everyone why you should never count out a top prospect after a rough rookie season. The power is for real. Konerko is no longer a .280-.300 hitter like he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is proving that he still has some pop left in the tank. You should not be surprised to see Mark Reynolds‘ name on this list.