Drafting an Offense of Post-200 Players

Using the current NFBC average draft data for their 50-round Draft & Hold leagues, I’m going to put together most of an offense going at 200 or later (2 catchers because I hate myself, an infield, and 2 OF). I guess it’s just a different way to identify some sleeper/later values that I like, but hey, let’s do it!

C1 – Omar Narváez, MIL | Pick 237

Among the 21 catchers with at least 650 PA the last two years, Narváez’s 120 wRC+ in 804 PA is 3rd behind only Mitch Garver (130 in 694 PA) and the guy he replaced, Yasmani Grandal (123 in 1150). He’s a brutal framer which could cut into his playing time a bit unless they have some plans to improve him, but I’d take 400 PA with 15 HR and a .277 AVG.

C2 – Robinson Chirinos, FA | Pick 320

He hasn’t signed yet, but there’s an active market including a potential return to Texas. He could also fit with the Angels, who desperately need a catcher. The 36-year old backstop has hit 52 HR (17-18-17), good for 7th most at the position.

1B – Garrett Cooper, MIA | Pick 323

Cooper had a solid .281/.344/.446 line with 15 HR in 421 PA last year and the Marlins have not only improved their lineup but also moved the fences in.

2B – Kevin Newman, PIT | Pick 203

Newman spent the majority of his season leading off for the Pirates and hit .328/.374/.502 out of that spot with 11 HR and 9 SB (he had 12/16 on the year). If he leads off again in 2020, I really like him, but even if he doesn’t, I think he can go 15 HR/20 SB. I don’t even really need additional power, if he stays around 12-14 mark but pushes 20+ SBs, I love him at this price because the AVG will be an asset, too.

3B – Travis Shaw, FA | Pick 440

He hasn’t landed yet but I think he’s a good fit for one of the Rendon runners-up like Texas or even Rendon’s former team in Washington, both of which are spots where I think he’ll flourish. I tend to see 2019 as just a washout season. I’m heartened by the fact that he at least raked in his demotion to Triple-A so it’s not like he just completely forgot how to hit. He might not get back to his 30-homer hitting ways, but I’m definitely betting on 25 with a full-time role (or at least 500+ PA).

SS – Didi Gregorius, PHI | Pick 224

Gregorius could move up from here, but I still think he’ll stay on this side of 200 and I’m ready to buy, especially since he’ll be my MI in a “normal” setup. Like Shaw, it’s not hard to essentially excuse his 2019 as a washout, especially on the heels of a Tommy John surgery. An offseason to fully recover and another strong ballpark/lineup combo make it easy to envision a return to his .270s AVG and mid-20s HR output with decent counting numbers depending on where he bats.

OF1 – Josh Rojas, ARI | Pick 325

A key piece in the Greinke deal, Rojas put up 25 HR and 37 SB in 636 PA across Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors (albeit just a 68 wRC+ in his 157 MLB PA). The 26-year old should enter the year with a full-time role and could be an excellent power-speed payoff this late. While he did K at a 26% clip in the MLB sample, he had a 16% mark in the minors so if he can work it down toward that, there could be some AVG upside, too, but I’d take a .255 AVG as long as it comes with 15-17 HR and 23-26 SB.

OF2 – Corey Dickerson, FA | Pick 346

I can’t seem to quit this guy. I always seem to wind up with a couple shares each year and I’m never really disappointed by the numbers he puts up, though the volume is at times underwhelming, including last year’s 279 PA. Among the 132 players with at least 1400 PA over the last three years, Dickerson’s 118 wRC+ is 46th and that doesn’t even account for ties so it’s probably closer to the 30th-highest total. The dude rakes, he just needs a home and some health, but the health downside is definitely baked into this price. Sign me up.